十五五规划
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建筑装饰行业周报(20251208-20251214):重视春季躁动行情-20251217
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-12-17 02:02
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction decoration industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The focus is on the start of the "15th Five-Year Plan" in 2026, with the construction sector expected to experience a "spring rally." Overall infrastructure investment in 2025 remains weak, with growth rates at low levels. However, conditions for marginal improvement in investment rhythm may arise in the first quarter of 2026, catalyzing sentiment and orders for the sector [2][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Five-Year Plan Impact - The five-year plan significantly influences infrastructure investment rhythms, showing a clear "high at the front, stable at the back" pattern in recent cycles. Historically, infrastructure investment growth in China has exhibited stable phase characteristics, with the first half of the plan often seeing concentrated project launches and relatively high growth rates, while the latter half tends to stabilize [3][10]. 2. Investment Recovery Patterns - Historical data indicates a "low base - next year recovery" pattern for first-quarter infrastructure growth. For instance, in 2025, the broad infrastructure fixed asset investment growth rates for January-February and March are 9.95% and 12.59%, respectively. However, excluding the impact of power investment, the narrow infrastructure growth rates are only 5.60% and 5.94%, marking the lowest in five years. The expectation for 2026 is that the first quarter may naturally recover due to the low growth base in 2025 [4][12]. 3. Provincial Project Disclosures - In the first quarter of the "14th Five-Year Plan," multiple provinces are expected to disclose significant plans for communication, comprehensive transportation, water conservancy, and major infrastructure projects, which will significantly catalyze the infrastructure industry chain. For example, provinces like Sichuan and Chongqing have set ambitious investment targets for the "14th Five-Year Plan," which will lay the groundwork for the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [5][10]. 4. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.34%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.84%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.74%. The construction decoration index dropped by 1.59%, with sectors like landscaping engineering and municipal engineering showing positive growth [6][25]. 5. Company Announcements - Several companies in the construction sector have reported significant project wins, including major overseas contracts and domestic infrastructure projects, indicating a robust pipeline of work that supports future revenue growth [19][20].
李家超:统筹发展和安全 确保香港长期繁荣稳定
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-12-16 23:32
李家超:统筹发展和安全 确保香港长期繁荣稳定 中新社北京12月17日电 (记者 张晓曦)国家主席习近平16日下午在中南海瀛台会见来京述职的香港特别 行政区行政长官李家超。李家超当晚在北京会见传媒时表示,他将继续带领团队,统筹发展和安全,深 化改革,确保香港长期繁荣稳定。 16日晚,李家超在香港特别行政区政府驻北京办事处举行记者会,介绍他述职汇报的重点内容及未来工 作目标。 12月16日晚,香港特别行政区行政长官李家超(右)在北京会见传媒。中新社记者 张晓曦 摄 李家超指出,香港经济今年第三季表现蓬勃,出口继续上升,本地需求持续扩张。金融、创新科技、旅 游等方面持续发展。本届特区政府三年多以来致力改善基层住房问题,兴建3万个"简约公屋"帮助基层 解决住宿问题,约1万个单位于年底前落成启用。公屋综合轮候时间由本届特区政府上任前的高峰6.1 年,缩短至今年9月底的5.1年。另外,还推出"简朴房"取缔劣质㓥房和立法规管网约车,解决两个"老 大难"问题。 李家超感谢中央过去一年推出多项挺港惠港措施,包括支持国际调解院落户香港、扩展"港资港法港仲 裁"适用范围、"粤车南下"会在12月23日进入香港市区,并表示这些措施将进 ...
社保基金会:充分发挥长期资金耐心资本作用
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-12-16 23:14
Core Viewpoint - The meeting led by Liu Kun emphasized the importance of the Central Economic Work Conference in shaping the economic work for 2026 and ensuring a strong start for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][2] Group 1 - The meeting highlighted the need for continuous learning of Xi Jinping's important speeches and the spirit of the conference, integrating it with the 20th Central Committee's fourth plenary session to enhance confidence and implement decisions [2] - It stressed the importance of prudent management of fund investments, closely monitoring domestic and international macroeconomic conditions, and effectively conducting asset allocation [2] - The meeting called for long-term planning to promote the development of the social security fund, aligning with the key tasks outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the Central Economic Work Conference [2]
2025两岸企业家峰会年会在南京举行王沪宁出席开幕式并致辞
Xin Hua Ri Bao· 2025-12-16 23:09
开幕式前,王沪宁会见了与会两岸企业家代表。全国政协副主席兼秘书长王东峰,峰会大陆方面理 事长郭金龙、副理事长张平等参加会见。 本届峰会年会以"聚焦转型创新 深化多链合作"为主题,两岸企业家峰会理事会成员、会员及两岸 企业家、专家学者共约800人出席活动。 在苏期间,王沪宁还到南京、镇江的学校、企业和宗教活动场所调研,到镇江市政协机关看望在镇 江市的全国政协委员和政协机关干部。 王沪宁表示,今年是中国人民抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜利80周年,也是台湾光复80周年。两 岸同胞要坚持正确二战史观,传承和弘扬伟大民族精神、伟大抗战精神,坚持一个中国原则和"九二共 识",坚决反对"台独"分裂和外部势力干涉,坚定守护中华民族共同家园,坚定推进祖国统一大业。要 坚定铸牢中华民族共同体意识,增强做中国人的志气、骨气、底气,为台海谋和平、为国家谋统一、为 民族谋复兴。 峰会台湾方面理事长刘兆玄在致辞中表示,近年来全球经济形势发生剧变,但大陆仍是台商重要的 生产基地和市场。峰会坚持"九二共识"基础,为两岸产业合作搭建平台,促进双方企业深度交流合作, 取得众多成果。大陆"十五五"规划制定实施将为两岸产业合作开辟广阔新空间,期待两 ...
兴业证券张忆东:2026年港股牛市将继续 聚焦“成长乘势聚力+价值重构红利“
智通财经网· 2025-12-16 23:07
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the AI wave will benefit from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026, leading to a differentiation and value transformation in the AI sector [1][3] - The report suggests that the Hong Kong stock market will continue its bull run, driven by earnings and liquidity, with significant potential for both earnings and valuation improvements, particularly in large-cap growth and dividend assets [1][11] - Investment strategies focus on generating excess returns from "growth momentum + value reconstruction dividends," with optimism for AI investments, military technology, new consumption, and pharmaceuticals [1][15] Group 2 - In 2026, the U.S. is expected to experience liquidity easing, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar improving global liquidity [2][3] - The AI technology wave is viewed as a "rigid bubble" in the context of great power competition, with concerns about bubbles potentially leading to differentiation and value transformation in the AI market [2][3] - The report draws parallels between the current AI wave and the internet boom of the late 1990s, suggesting that macroeconomic conditions and Federal Reserve policies will differ significantly from those in the early 2000s [3] Group 3 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is highlighted as a policy driver for China's economic structure in 2026, emphasizing high-quality development and structural opportunities in the stock market [4][6] - Key areas of focus include high-level technological self-reliance, stimulating domestic demand, and the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries [5][6] - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 indicates a weak recovery with improving inflation, which may enhance investment opportunities [6] Group 4 - The expectation of a stronger renminbi in 2026 is supported by multiple favorable factors, including the continued weakness of the U.S. dollar and the recovery of nominal economic indicators in China [7][8] - There is an anticipated trend of foreign capital returning to the Chinese stock market, driven by the renminbi appreciation and improved asset attractiveness [8][9] - The report notes that the significant wealth in Chinese households presents further potential for equity market allocation [8][10] Group 5 - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to maintain its bull market in 2026, benefiting from expectations of recovery in mainland China and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [11][12] - The report indicates that the market structure in 2025 suggests significant potential for earnings and valuation improvements, particularly in sectors like technology, consumption, and healthcare [11][12] - The investment strategy emphasizes patience and caution, with a focus on sectors that can attract both domestic and foreign capital [15][16]
习近平分别听取李家超岑浩辉述职报告
Shan Xi Ri Bao· 2025-12-16 22:59
习近平指出,中国共产党二十届四中全会对"十五五"时期国家经济社会发展作出战略擘画,强调要坚定不移 贯彻"一国两制"、"港人治港"、高度自治方针,促进香港长期繁荣稳定。特别行政区政府要主动对接国家"十五 五"规划,坚持和完善行政主导,扎实推动经济高质量发展,深度参与粤港澳大湾区建设,更好融入和服务国家发 展大局。 李强、蔡奇、丁薛祥、李干杰、陈文清、夏宝龙等参加会见。 新华社北京12月16日电 国家主席习近平16日下午在中南海瀛台会见来京述职的澳门特别行政区行政长官岑浩 辉,听取他对澳门当前形势和特别行政区政府工作情况的汇报。 12月16日,国家主席习近平在中南海会见来京述职的香港特别行政区行政长官李家超。 12月16日,国家主席习近平在中南海会见来京述职的澳门特别行政区行政长官岑浩辉。 国家主席习近平16日下午在中南海瀛台会见来京述职的香港特别行政区行政长官李家超,听取他对香港当前 形势和特别行政区政府工作情况的汇报。 习近平表示,一年来,李家超行政长官带领特别行政区政府,勇于担当、积极进取,坚定维护国家主权、安 全、发展利益,成功举行香港第八届立法会选举,实现经济稳步增长,香港由治及兴迈出新步伐。中央对李家 ...
把握“成长+价值”双主线 兴业证券最新研判
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-12-16 22:37
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the investment strategy meeting is to explore investment opportunities in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the macroeconomic environment for 2026 [1] - The focus is on the dual core scenarios of trading and allocation in the investment advisory transformation process, aiming to create a comprehensive service system for different risk preferences and asset sizes [1] Group 2 - Zhang Yidong emphasizes that the investment strategy for Hong Kong stocks in 2026 should be patient and steady, with excess returns expected from "growth momentum and value reconstruction dividends" [2] - The AI wave is highlighted as a significant trend, with expectations that 2026 will benefit from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, drawing parallels to the internet boom of 1996-1998 [2] - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 includes an anticipated improvement in nominal GDP growth and moderate inflation recovery, with a focus on structural opportunities in the stock market [2] Group 3 - Four key areas of opportunity are identified: 1) Growth momentum driven by the AI wave, particularly in internet, edge AI, media, and sectors supported by the "14th Five-Year Plan" such as military technology and new energy [3] 2) High-yield assets like insurance, banks, and energy in a low-interest-rate environment [3] 3) Value discovery in traditional industries amid global supply chain restructuring and profit improvement policies [3] 4) Strategic assets like gold and rare earths in the context of global order reconstruction [3] Group 4 - Zhang Qiyao expresses optimism for the A-share market in 2026, citing limited negative external impacts and supportive internal factors such as GDP recovery and improved corporate profitability [4] - The influx of domestic and foreign capital into the stock market is expected to deepen in 2026, driven by wealth reallocation and the return of foreign investment [4] - The performance of industries is anticipated to shift from a "淘汰赛" (elimination race) to a "竞速赛" (speed race) as more sectors enter a profit recovery phase [4] Group 5 - The sources of prosperity for listed companies in 2026 are expected to focus on AI, new energy, military, and innovative pharmaceuticals, along with price recovery and global competitive advantages [5] - The low-interest-rate environment will continue to favor dividend sectors as quality core assets, while the selection of individual stocks may shift towards free cash flow as overall corporate profitability improves [5]
王毅在结束对阿拉伯三国访问后接受中国媒体采访
Xin Hua She· 2025-12-16 16:47
新华社北京12月16日电 12月12日至16日,中共中央政治局委员、外交部长王毅访问阿联酋、沙 特、约旦。访问结束后接受中国媒体采访。 一、 此访正值我国"十五五"即将开局之际,阿拉伯国家对同中国深化合作有何期待? 王毅:这次到访的三国和海合会都高度赞赏中国发展取得的巨大成就,看好中国经济,重视中国机 遇,期待同中国深化全面合作。三国领导人都十分关注中国"十五五"规划,认同规划建议释放的坚持开 放合作、推动互利共赢强烈信息。相信中国将继续以稳健的国家政策、稳步的经济增长和稳定的发展预 期,为动荡世界提供最宝贵、最稀缺的确定性,为阿拉伯国家发展振兴创造更多可持续的红利。 访问期间感受到,阿拉伯国家作为全球南方的重要板块,正加快推进经济多元转型,希望将中东这 片人类文明的摇篮建设成为发展繁荣的热土。中方愿加强"十五五"规划同中东各国发展规划对接,巩固 传统务实合作,深化新兴领域合作,拓展未来前沿合作,促进创新驱动、投资金融、能源合作、经贸互 惠、人文交流"五大合作格局"建设提质升级,继续做彼此现代化征程上可信赖、可依靠的真朋友、好伙 伴。 二、 今年中东战乱频发、动荡不定,中国如何看待持续复杂的中东安全形势? 王 ...
把握“成长+价值”双主线,兴业证券最新研判
中国基金报· 2025-12-16 15:29
Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy for 2026 emphasizes "growth momentum and value reconstruction dividends" in both the Hong Kong and A-share markets, with a focus on structural opportunities and long-term development while downplaying short-term economic fluctuations [2][3]. Group 1: Hong Kong Market Insights - The chief strategist believes that patience and a steady approach are essential for Hong Kong investments in 2026, with excess returns expected from the AI wave and a favorable macroeconomic environment due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3]. - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 includes an expected improvement in nominal GDP growth and moderate inflation recovery, indicating that the Chinese economy will present structural opportunities for the stock market [3][4]. - Key investment opportunities identified include sectors benefiting from the AI wave, military technology, energy technology, and new consumption driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4]. Group 2: A-share Market Insights - The A-share market is expected to benefit from limited negative external shocks, a global AI industry trend, and a favorable liquidity environment, which will support market performance in 2026 [5]. - Internal factors such as the recovery of nominal GDP growth and price increases are anticipated to improve corporate earnings, which are seen as a major highlight for the market [5]. - The shift in industry performance from a "淘汰赛" (elimination race) to a "竞速赛" (speed race) is expected as more sectors enter a recovery phase, with a focus on high-growth industries [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Themes and Strategies - Key investment themes for 2026 include focusing on industries aligned with trends in AI, new energy, military, and innovative pharmaceuticals, as well as sectors benefiting from price recovery and global competitiveness [6]. - The low interest rate environment is expected to enhance the strategic value of high-yield assets such as insurance, banking, and energy [4]. - The selection of individual stocks may shift from stable dividend payers to those with strong free cash flow as overall corporate earnings become more elastic [6].
新蓝图 新赛道 激活发展新场景
Xin Hua She· 2025-12-16 14:26
0:00 "十五五"规划建议描绘中国未来五年发展蓝图。多领域的创新活力与民生温度双向奔赴,激活发展新场景。 ■政策为"翼" 让创业者"低空腾飞" 2017年,朱胜利与多年的挚友陈方平博士共同创立了公司,取名"云圣智能",寄托着在低空经济领域腾云驾雾、一飞冲天的壮志雄心。 云圣智能在中关村孵化后,将研发中心设在北京,生产测试与组装环节布局在天津,投身京津冀协同发展,借助天津经济技术开发区的政策支 持,8年的时间,企业产品营收从几十万元增长到数亿元。 "十五五"规划建议描绘中国未来五年发展蓝图,提出"培育壮大新兴产业和未来产业",部署"加快新能源、新材料、航空航天、低空经济等战略 性新兴产业集群发展"。 "十五五"规划建议提出,全面实施"人工智能+"行动,以人工智能引领科研范式变革,加强人工智能同产业发展、文化建设、民生保障、社会治 理相结合。 ■搭建一座情感的剧场 从事编导十多年,房莹经手了近百台大型演出,舞台再大都尽在掌控。2024年,艺术团将目光投向备受年轻人追捧的小剧场,决心做天津沉浸式 小剧场音乐剧的"开荒者"。 近年来,随着智慧养老平台逐步建设,老年人的晚年生活有了不一样的体验。 ■养老服务师"守护" ...