Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the Federal Reserve's independence and the pressure it faces from political figures, particularly Trump, regarding interest rate decisions and economic growth expectations [2][18]. Group 1: FOMC Meeting Insights - The focus of the September FOMC meeting was not only on the interest rate cut magnitude but also on the dynamics within the committee, including new member Milan's rapid inclusion and the legal issues faced by member Cook [4]. - Only member Milan supported a 50 basis point rate cut, while other members, including Waller and Bowman, aligned with the majority [4]. - The median forecast for rate cuts in 2025 was raised from 50 basis points to 75 basis points, but only 9 out of 19 members supported this adjustment [4]. Group 2: Economic Predictions - The FOMC members have become more optimistic about the economy, raising the GDP forecast for 2025 to 1.6% and for 2026 to 1.8%, while lowering the unemployment rate for 2026 to 4.4% [5]. - Core PCE inflation expectations for 2026 were increased to 2.6% from 2.4% [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Gold emerged as the biggest loser from the FOMC meeting, despite being one of the best-performing asset classes since the Jackson Hole meeting, with a 10% increase attributed to market reactions to the Fed's perceived loss of independence [6]. - Other assets showed limited volatility, but the market's expectation for a series of 25 basis point rate cuts was met [8]. Group 4: Labor Market Concerns - Powell expressed significant concerns regarding the labor market, introducing the term "risk management cut" to describe the Fed's approach to rate cuts, which may suppress the likelihood of consecutive cuts [13]. - The labor market is facing pressures from reduced immigration and weakening labor demand, complicating the Fed's inflation outlook [13]. Group 5: Political Pressure - Trump's fundamental disagreement with the Fed's economic growth expectations creates ongoing political pressure, as he seeks more aggressive rate cuts to stimulate growth and alleviate debt pressures [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00-4.25% reflects a preventive approach to manage risks in the economy, highlighting concerns over the labor market while maintaining a cautious stance on future economic conditions [1][4]. Economic Analysis - The current economic landscape shows a coexistence of strong economic growth and weak employment, with GDP growth forecasted to improve slightly by 0.2 percentage points compared to previous predictions, while unemployment rates are expected to rise [4]. - Powell described a "peculiar balance" in the labor market, where reduced labor supply due to immigration policies contrasts with weakened demand due to economic slowdown, contributing to the decision for the rate cut [5]. Political Influence - Political factors are increasingly impacting the Federal Reserve's independence, as evidenced by attempts from the Trump administration to influence Fed appointments, which poses a potential threat to its credibility and policy effectiveness [6]. Interest Rate Policy - There is significant divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding future rate cuts, with the median forecast for rate cuts increasing from two to three times this year, indicating a growing split in opinions on monetary policy direction [7]. - The dot plot indicates a downward adjustment in future rate projections for 2026 and 2027, reflecting a cautious approach to economic data dependency [7]. Forward Guidance - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate-cutting trajectory, with predictions of two additional 25 basis point cuts in October and December, aiming to reach a neutral rate of 3.25%-3.50% next year [8]. - The yield curve is anticipated to steepen due to market expectations of rate cuts and concerns over the Fed's independence, with potential for further steepening of 15-20 basis points [8]. Market Implications - Gold remains a favorable investment as central bank buying trends continue, and the renewed rate-cutting cycle supports its price, although investors are advised to adopt a dollar-cost averaging strategy due to high valuations [9]. - U.S. equities are expected to continue a moderate upward trend, driven by strong corporate earnings rather than valuation increases, with a balanced investment strategy recommended [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut on September 17 was in line with market expectations, and the dot - plot signaled a dovish stance with a possible 50 - basis - point cut within the year. The Fed is moving towards a more "risk - neutral" policy direction, and this rate cut has a "preventive" characteristic. The market will correct the pricing of monetary easing, and the long - term trends of a weak US dollar and a strong gold market remain, but market liquidity may be weaker than previously expected [2][7][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fed FOMC Meeting Overview - **Interest Rate**: The target range of the federal funds rate was lowered from 4.25% - 4.5% to 4.00% - 4.25%, a 25 - basis - point cut [2][3]. - **Economic Situation**: Economic growth moderated in the first half of the year, employment growth slowed, the unemployment rate rose slightly but remained low, and inflation increased and was still slightly high. The statement removed the description of a "robust labor market" and judged that the downside risk to employment had increased [3]. - **Dual Goals**: The FOMC aims for full employment and price stability (long - term inflation at 2%), and the rate - cut decision was based on the shift in the risk balance [3]. - **Balance Sheet Reduction**: The Fed will continue to reduce its holdings of US Treasuries, agency debt, and agency mortgage - backed securities (MBS), and the balance - sheet reduction is proceeding as previously planned [3]. - **Voting Disagreement**: Among the 12 voting FOMC members, only new理事Milan voted against, preferring a 50 - basis - point cut. The voting result did not show a more divided situation [3]. - **Economic Forecast**: The median expectation of FOMC members is that GDP will grow 1.6% this year and 1.8% next year; the overall inflation rate will be 3.0% this year, drop to 2.6% in 2026, and reach 2.1% in 2027 [4]. - **Dot - Plot**: Among 19 FOMC members, 9 think there will be 2 more rate cuts this year, 2 think 1 more, 6 think no more cuts, 1 thinks there should be a rate hike, and 1 (likely new理事Milan) thinks 5 cuts. The median forecast of the federal funds rate in 2025 was lowered from 3.9% to 3.6%, implying 2 more cuts this year. From September 2025 to the end of 2027, a cumulative 125 - basis - point cut is expected, lower than Trump's expectation of 300 basis points [4]. 3.2 "Preventive" Rate Cut Initiated - Before the meeting, weak employment data, moderate inflation, and controllable tariff transmission led to a consensus market expectation of a rate cut. The 25 - basis - point cut was in line with expectations, and the dot - plot signaled a dovish stance. The Fed is moving towards a more "risk - neutral" policy, and this rate cut is "preventive" due to political risks. The meeting did not show an intensified internal division, and concerns about the Fed's independence have eased to some extent [7]. 3.3 Discussion on Subsequent Rate - Cut Path - Future rate - cut paths depend on employment and inflation data under the "risk - balance" framework, as well as political issues related to the Fed's independence. The US employment situation is complex, with short - term policy boosts but long - term structural problems. Data accuracy issues may increase the difficulty of predicting rate - cut paths. US inflation is expected to rise due to tariffs, peaking around the first quarter of 2026. The scope for further rate cuts within the year is limited, and in the base case, the rate - cut space in 2025 is about 50 - 75 basis points [8][10][12]. 3.4 Market Impact - Mainstream asset prices have largely priced in a 25 - or 50 - basis - point rate cut. After the rate - cut decision, market sentiment declined, with gold prices rising then falling, and US Treasury yields and the US dollar index showing a V - shaped reversal. The long - term trends of a weak US dollar and a strong gold market remain, but the market will correct the pricing of monetary easing, and market liquidity may be weaker than expected [13].

Monetary Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the target range to 4.00% to 4.25%[3] - The committee expects a total of 75 basis points in rate cuts for the year, aligning with market expectations[3] Economic Outlook - GDP growth forecast for 2026 increased from 1.6% to 1.8%[5] - Unemployment rate forecast adjusted down from 4.5% to 4.4%[5] - PCE inflation forecast raised from 2.4% to 2.6%[5] Market Reactions - Following the rate decision, the US dollar index and 10-year Treasury yields initially fell but later rose, indicating a hawkish interpretation[6] - Gold prices experienced a similar pattern, initially rising before declining overall[6] Committee Dynamics - Only one member, Stephen Milan, advocated for a 50 basis point cut, highlighting the independence of the Federal Reserve[4] - The majority of the committee supports the current 25 basis point reduction, reflecting a consensus on the need for cautious monetary easing[4] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected resilience in US inflation and a more severe economic downturn than anticipated[9] - Employment conditions may underperform expectations, adding uncertainty to the economic outlook[9]

基本面分析： 行情回顾： 黄金周三（9.17）最高上探至3707.47美元/盎司，最低触及3645.9美元/盎司。收盘于3658.47美元/盎司，周四（9.18）开于3658.74元/盎司，截至目前最高上 探至3672.15美元/盎司，最低触及3651.1美元/盎司，行情小幅回撤，现报价3653.8。 1，美联储传声筒：鲍威尔避免了激烈分歧 努力证明美联储独立性 "美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos：当美联储周三降息时，表面上看这像是例行的货币政策操作。市场反应较为平淡，主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔也基本避免了因这一决 定而引发的激烈分歧，尽管这一决定出现在前所未有的政治对抗背景下。鲍威尔在周三降息中开启的政策转向，可能代表他最后一次努力证明——一个独立 的美国央行依然有能力在复杂的环境中引领经济，而不是在更符合特朗普总统优先事项的官员获得更大控制权之前放弃独立性。鲍威尔的主席任期将在明年 春季结束。在其任期内的第三次，鲍威尔尝试着一个极其微妙的操作：降息并非因为衰退迫在眉睫，而是为了防止衰退发生。 2，美联储于当地时间周三批准下调利率25个基点，这是过去九个月来的首次降息。官员们判断，近期劳动力市场的疲软态势已 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve restarted interest rate cuts by 25 basis points, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.00% to 4.25%[2] - The Fed's guidance indicates a potential for three more rate cuts within the year, adjusting the median rate forecast down from 3.9% to 3.6%[14] - The meeting's tone was dovish, reflecting concerns over employment risks and a shift in the balance of risks[3][8] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.3%[4] - The 10-year Treasury yield increased by 2 basis points to 4.06%, and the 2-year yield rose by 1 basis point to 3.52%[4] - The market's expectation for a 50 basis point cut was not fully met, leading to a mixed reaction in equities and a rebound in bond yields[3][7] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Non-farm payroll data was significantly revised downwards, with a reduction of 91,100 jobs over the past 12 months, intensifying rate cut expectations[5][6] - The Fed's economic outlook was upgraded, suggesting that rate cuts could stimulate durable goods consumption and real estate investment[8][14] - Inflation pressures are expected to remain manageable, with the Fed indicating that the current economic conditions do not warrant aggressive rate hikes[21][26]

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that Powell is engaging in a high-risk policy gamble by choosing to cut interest rates without clear signs of an impending recession, marking his third attempt at such a delicate maneuver during his tenure [2][3]. Economic Context - The decision to lower interest rates is largely attributed to a significant slowdown in the labor market, with revised data showing that the average job growth for three months in August dropped from an initial report of 150,000 to 29,000, indicating substantial underlying weakness [3]. - Some economists believe that the Federal Reserve's actions, including the recent 50 basis point cut, are not aggressive enough to address the current economic challenges [3]. Structural Changes and Risks - There are concerns that the Federal Reserve may misinterpret structural changes in the economy as temporary cyclical weakness, which could lead to excessive rate cuts [4]. - Policies from the Trump administration, such as immigration restrictions and increased tariffs, may be permanently altering the economy's production capacity, raising fears about the risks of over-lowering interest rates [4]. Political Pressure and Consensus - Powell faces significant political pressure while trying to maintain consensus within the Federal Reserve, which is a major test of his leadership [5]. - Despite differing views on the economic outlook, Powell has managed to keep the consensus intact, with three regional Federal Reserve bank presidents supporting the recent rate cut [5]. Future Challenges and Opportunities - The Federal Reserve is likely to face more contentious debates regarding interest rate predictions, with some members believing no further cuts are necessary this year [7]. - Powell acknowledges the dual risks of labor market weakness and persistent inflation, indicating that there is no risk-free path forward [7]. Historical Context and Potential Outcomes - The article outlines three potential outcomes of Powell's policy gamble, including the ideal scenario of a "soft landing" similar to the mid-1990s, the risk of igniting inflation similar to the late 1960s, and the historical failures of rate cuts to prevent recessions in 1990, 2001, and 2007 [8].

金透财经 | 何圳 美东时间9月17日，美联储货币政策委员会（FOMC）会后决定将联邦基金利率目标区间从4.25%至4.5%降至4.00%至4.25%，降幅25个基点。这是今年以来 美联储六次FOMC会议首次降息。美联储主席鲍威尔在随后的记者会上重申，美联储坚定致力于维持自身独立性，不对政治事件置评。 美联储独立性的坚守 鲍威尔在记者会上明确表示，美联储的决策完全基于数据，不考虑政治因素，这是美联储内部根深蒂固的文化。对于联储理事Lisa Cook与美国总统特朗普 之间的官司，鲍威尔认为不适合发表评论，同时也不会针对美国财长贝森特的讲话发表任何意见。他强调，在追求最大就业和物价稳定的双重职责方面， FOMC仍然是团结一致的。 针对新的联储委员会成员Steven Myron保留白宫职务的情况，鲍威尔指出，委员会在追求双重使命目标上仍然是团结一致的，坚定地致力于维护美联储的独 立性。他表示，美联储的决策机制基于数据和经济形势，不会因个别成员的背景而受到影响。FOMC有19位参与者，其中12位在任何给定时点拥有投票权， 这种轮换制度确保了决策的广泛代表性，没有哪一位投票委员能单方面改变结果。 货币政策的稳定与调整 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.0%-4.25%, marking its first rate cut in nine months, indicating a cautious and dovish stance in its monetary policy [1][2]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting resulted in a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate, reflecting a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties [1]. - Analysts noted that the Fed's independence will be crucial for future rate decisions, making the path forward more ambiguous [1][2]. Economic Indicators and Future Projections - Current economic data suggests a relative easing of inflation risks, with a shift in focus towards the labor market [2]. - The dot plot indicates two more rate cuts in 2025, but there is significant disagreement among Fed officials regarding the future rate path [2][3]. Market Reactions and Expectations - Market expectations for rate cuts appear overly optimistic, with various asset classes pricing in different probabilities for future cuts [5]. - The implied probability for a rate cut in October remains around 80%, with expectations for a total of approximately 1.8 cuts remaining for the year [4][5]. Global Asset Repricing - Continued rate cuts by the Fed may accelerate global asset repricing, benefiting physical assets and precious metals while potentially weakening the dollar [6]. - The market is advised to closely monitor upcoming U.S. employment and inflation data, as well as sensitive growth indicators like real estate sales and manufacturing PMI [6]. Fed's Independence and Political Pressure - The independence of the Federal Reserve is highlighted as a cornerstone of U.S. asset credibility, with potential political pressures from the Trump administration posing risks to this independence [7]. - A loss of independence could lead to uncontrolled inflation, adversely affecting stock, bond, and currency markets [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year, aligning with market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Fed's dot plot indicates the possibility of two more rate cuts by the end of the year, each by 25 basis points [1][2]. - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management" decision, emphasizing the need to respond to a cooling labor market [1][3]. - The Fed's economic forecast report slightly upgraded GDP growth predictions for 2025 and 2026 to 1.6% and 1.8%, respectively, both up by 0.2 percentage points from June [2]. Group 2: Employment and Inflation Outlook - The Fed is prioritizing employment over inflation, indicating a higher tolerance for inflation in the short term [2][3]. - The projected unemployment rate remains stable at 4.5% for 2025 and 4.4% for 2026, unchanged from previous forecasts [2]. Group 3: Internal Disagreements and Future Projections - There is significant division among Fed officials regarding future rate cuts, with 9 out of 19 voting members supporting two more cuts, while others are more cautious [3][5]. - The dot plot reflects a lack of consensus, with some members advocating for only one additional cut or none at all [5][6]. - The Fed's decision-making process is reportedly unaffected by political factors, as emphasized by Powell [6][7].