在美联储理事库格勒意外提前辞职后不到一周，新任理事人选火速出炉。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间8月7日，美国总统特朗普表示，已选定现任白宫经济顾问委员会主 席斯蒂芬·米兰接替刚刚空出的美联储理事席位，任期至2026年1月31日。特朗普还称，将继续 寻找长期的美联储职位替代者。 米兰曾在特朗普第一任总统任期内担任美国财政部经济政策高级顾问，拥有哈佛大学经济学专 业的博士学位，是"海湖庄园协议"总设计师。 权宜之计 记者丨 吴斌 编辑丨和佳 设定的2%目标。去年9月美联储将利率从5.3%的20年高位下调，米兰认为这提高了高通胀率根 深蒂固的风险。 8月1日，美联储发表声明称，美联储理事库格勒辞去美联储理事的职位，于本月8日正式卸 任。库格勒的理事任期原定于明年1月结束，其提前离职使得特朗普可提前进行新一轮人事任 命。 米兰在美联储理事会的任期只有几个月，特朗普任命米兰为临时理事无疑是"权宜之计"，为后 续提名14年任期的理事甚至下一任美联储主席铺路。 Evercore ISI高级经济学家兼策略师Marco Casiraghi表示， 特朗普选择米兰是权宜之计，给自 己留出了在明年1月之前做出最终决定的时间。这样一来，特 ...

资料配图，动图由豆包AI「照片动起来」生成 美国总统特朗普重塑美联储的布局，正以一记出人意料的短期任命拉开序幕。 8月7日周四，美国总统特朗普提名其高级经济顾问Stephen Miran出任美联储理事，旨在填补因理事Adriana Kugler提前辞职而空出的、将于明年1 月到期的理事席位。 野村证券外汇策略师Yusuke Miyairi指出，对美联储独立性减弱的担忧"可能自然导致美元的抛售压力"。 对投资者而言，这一任命不仅意味着美联储内部可能出现更多支持降息的声音，更重要的是，它预示着特朗普希望美联储采取何种政策路径，并 为未来可能出现的更激进的美联储改革埋下伏笔。 一场"过渡性"任命：争取时间，保留选择 特朗普此次提名Miran，其核心在于"过渡"二字。Miran的任期仅持续到明年1月底，这使其成为一个典型的"权宜之计"。 据媒体最新分析，此举一石二鸟：既在短期内向美联储安插了一位支持降息的盟友，又巧妙地为自己赢得了时间，以谋划下一任美联储主席这一 关键人事任命。 特朗普明确表示，"与此同时，我们将继续寻找永久性的替代人选"，暗示这仅是一项临时安排。这被市场解读为特朗普在为明年5月现任主席鲍威 尔任期结 ...

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Stephen Miran by President Trump to the Federal Reserve Board is a strategic move aimed at reshaping the Fed's policy direction and gaining time for future leadership decisions [2][3][10]. Group 1: Appointment Details - Trump's nomination of Miran fills a vacancy left by the resignation of Adriana Kugler, with Miran's term set to end in January next year [1]. - This appointment is seen as a temporary measure, allowing Trump to plan for the next Fed Chair after Jerome Powell's term ends in May [3][7]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve increased, leading to a decline in the dollar index [4]. - Analysts suggest that fears of diminished Fed independence could result in selling pressure on the dollar [6]. Group 3: Policy Implications - Miran's appointment is expected to bolster the dovish faction within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), aligning with Trump's preference for lower interest rates [10][11]. - His previous criticisms of the Fed's policies and support for Trump's tariffs indicate a potential shift in the Fed's approach to economic policy [12][14]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The nomination of Miran raises questions about the future direction of the Fed, particularly regarding its independence and decision-making processes [14][15]. - Analysts predict that the presence of Miran may lead to a more fragmented FOMC, with diverse viewpoints influencing monetary policy [15][16].

21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 在美联储理事库格勒意外提前辞职后不到一周，新任理事人选火速出炉。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间8月7日，美国总统特朗普表示，已选定现任白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬 ·米兰接替刚刚空出的美联储理事席位，任期至2026年1月31日。特朗普还称，将继续寻找长期的美联储 职位替代者。 米兰曾在特朗普第一任总统任期内担任美国财政部经济政策高级顾问，拥有哈佛大学经济学专业的博士 学位，是"海湖庄园协议"总设计师。 权宜之计 8月1日，美联储发表声明称，美联储理事库格勒辞去美联储理事的职位，于本月8日正式卸任。库格勒 的理事任期原定于明年1月结束，其提前离职使得特朗普可提前进行新一轮人事任命。 米兰在美联储理事会的任期只有几个月，特朗普任命米兰为临时理事无疑是"权宜之计"，为后续提名14 年任期的理事甚至下一任美联储主席铺路。 Evercore ISI高级经济学家兼策略师Marco Casiraghi表示，特朗普选择米兰是权宜之计，给自己留出了在 明年1月之前做出最终决定的时间。这样一来，特朗普就不会束缚自己的手脚，在新任美联储理事和美 联储主席人选上能保留一些选择。 长期以来米兰一直批评鲍 ...

智通财经APP获悉，特朗普提名白宫经济顾问委员会主席史蒂芬·米兰出任美联储理事，这一临时安排 既为其在央行安插盟友创造了空间，也为最终确定下一任美联储主席人选争取了时间。根据特朗普周四 表态，米兰将填补原定于明年1月到期的理事职位，而"永久接任者"的遴选仍在推进——该职位拥有完 整的14年任期，并将在现任主席鲍威尔5月任期结束后大概率接掌美联储。尽管鲍威尔理论上可留任至 2028年理事任期结束，但其是否继续执掌美联储仍存变数。 彭博经济评论指出，米兰几乎笃定会在利率上倾向鸽派，并可能在下半年主张降息;在美联储治理议题 上，他又可能展现鹰派锋芒——这位以创意见长的学者与白宫沟通顺畅，潜在影响力不容忽视。 | | 14-year term expiration | | | --- | --- | --- | | Governor | date | End of other positions | | Stephen Miran, when confirmed | Jan. 31, 2026 | | | Powell | Jan. 31, 2028 | Chair term ends May, 2026 | | W ...

美国总统特朗普重塑美联储的布局，正以一记出人意料的短期任命拉开序幕。 8月7日周四，美国总统特朗普提名其高级经济顾问Stephen Miran出任美联储理事，旨在填补因理事 Adriana Kugler提前辞职而空出的、将于明年1月到期的理事席位。 据媒体最新分析，此举一石二鸟：既在短期内向美联储安插了一位支持降息的盟友，又巧妙地为自己赢 得了时间，以谋划下一任美联储主席这一关键人事任命。 特朗普明确表示，"与此同时，我们将继续寻找永久性的替代人选"，暗示这仅是一项临时安排。这被市 场解读为特朗普在为明年5月现任主席鲍威尔任期结束后的人选进行战略布局。 消息公布后，市场对美联储独立性可能受损的担忧加剧，美元指数应声回落。野村证券外汇策略师 Yusuke Miyairi指出，对美联储独立性减弱的担忧"可能自然导致美元的抛售压力"。 对投资者而言，这一任命不仅意味着美联储内部可能出现更多支持降息的声音，更重要的是，它预示着 特朗普希望美联储采取何种政策路径，并为未来可能出现的更激进的美联储改革埋下伏笔。 一场"过渡性"任命：争取时间，保留选择 特朗普此次提名Miran，其核心在于"过渡"二字。Miran的任期仅持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Milan to the Federal Reserve Board represents a significant shift in monetary policy influenced by political considerations, signaling potential instability in the dollar system globally [1][4][8] Group 1: Appointment and Background - Milan's background aligns closely with Trump's economic policies, indicating that his decisions at the Federal Reserve will likely reflect the White House's agenda [3][4] - The sudden resignation of Kugler created an opportunity for Trump to appoint a trusted ally, further intertwining political influence with monetary policy [3][4] Group 2: Economic Implications - Milan's appointment may lead to a more accommodative monetary policy that supports Trump's economic nationalism, potentially prioritizing manufacturing and exports [4][6] - The politicalization of the Federal Reserve could result in decisions driven by electoral considerations rather than purely economic data, increasing uncertainty in global markets [6][8] Group 3: Global Financial Impact - Changes in U.S. monetary policy will have far-reaching effects on the global financial system, affecting capital flows, debt costs, and trade dynamics, particularly in emerging markets [6][8] - The potential for aggressive interest rate cuts to stimulate the U.S. economy could create short-term gains but risks long-term structural instability in the dollar's credibility and global financial order [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - Trump's nomination of a new Federal Reserve governor is seen as a significant move that could impact global economic stability, as the Federal Reserve's governors hold substantial influence over U.S. monetary policy and, by extension, the global financial markets [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Role and Impact - The Federal Reserve consists of seven governors who have voting rights on U.S. monetary policy, with terms lasting 14 years, which is longer than a presidential term, highlighting their significant influence [1]. - The nomination of a new governor is compared to replacing a key player in a sports team, indicating the potential for market volatility depending on the new appointee's stance on monetary policy [1][2]. Group 2: Candidates and Their Implications - Potential candidates include Judy Shelton, known for advocating lower interest rates, and Kevin Warsh, a former Treasury official with a mixed record on quantitative easing, suggesting a possible shift in monetary policy direction depending on who is appointed [1][2]. - The nomination raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, as Trump's previous criticisms of current chair Jerome Powell suggest a potential for political influence over monetary policy decisions [2][3]. Group 3: Broader Economic Consequences - If the new governor leans towards a "dovish" stance, it could lead to lower borrowing costs for U.S. companies, potentially boosting the stock market but risking inflation [2]. - Conversely, a "hawkish" approach could prioritize inflation control, possibly slowing economic growth, which would have ripple effects on global markets, particularly for emerging economies [2][3]. - The nomination process itself is under scrutiny, with the Senate hearings expected to reveal whether the new appointee will act independently or align closely with presidential preferences, impacting future monetary policy [3].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The labor market is perceived to be weak, with a consensus within the Federal Reserve that the overall unemployment rate may not fully reflect the actual situation, primarily due to a slowdown in labor supply [1] - The possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut in September is considered very low, as more evidence is needed to indicate an economic downturn [1][7] - The Federal Reserve's independence is safeguarded through its structure and culture, ensuring decisions are not influenced by political factors [9][10] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's meeting process is rigorous, with members communicating extensively before meetings, leading to clear positions by the time of the meeting [5] - Recent weak employment data does not constitute a significant shock, but the upcoming August data is crucial for confirming the trend of a weak hiring market [1][6] - The current interest rate level (5.25%-5.5%) is considered restrictive, but there is still some room for potential rate cuts [1][7] Labor Market Analysis - The labor market is believed to be weaker than what the overall unemployment rate suggests, with hiring stagnating and a reduction in labor supply due to immigration policy impacts [3][6] - Economic growth is currently weak, around 1%, with factors such as government spending cuts and insufficient consumer demand contributing to this situation [6] Financial Industry Changes - The financial industry has seen significant changes, including a more mature capital market and an increase in the share of hedge funds and investment funds [2][12] - There is a notable decentralization in global financial markets, and internal collaboration within companies has significantly improved, leading to more integrated operations across departments [2][13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, highlighting the political dynamics and implications for monetary policy independence [1][2][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Independence - Trump's attempts to influence the Federal Reserve, including the nomination of a "shadow chairman," face legal challenges due to the established independence of the Fed [4][5]. - Historical precedents show that past presidents have struggled to directly intervene in Fed policies without facing significant backlash [13][14]. Group 2: Political Pressure and Market Expectations - The political pressure from Trump may not successfully lead to immediate rate cuts, as the majority of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members remain cautious [8][9]. - Market expectations are shifting, with investors pricing in potential rate cuts after Powell's term ends, reflecting concerns over the Fed's independence [8][12]. Group 3: Potential Candidates for Fed Leadership - Several candidates for the "shadow chairman" position are discussed, with varying degrees of dovishness compared to Powell, but none are expected to fully comply with Trump's demands [6][7][8]. - The influence of these candidates on future monetary policy remains uncertain, as the ultimate decision-making power lies with Powell and the current FOMC [9][10]. Group 4: Economic Implications - Trump's strategy to lower long-term rates may backfire if it leads to increased inflation expectations, which could result in higher long-term rates instead [9][10]. - The potential for significant changes in the Fed's operational framework raises concerns about the long-term implications for monetary policy and economic stability [11][12]. Group 5: Investor Strategies - Investors are advised to consider the current environment where rate cuts are expected to be limited before Powell's departure, with more substantial cuts anticipated afterward [16][17]. - The divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) presents opportunities for investors to position themselves accordingly [16][17].