Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. For various commodities, different trends and investment suggestions are presented based on their respective fundamentals and market conditions [6]. Summary by Commodity Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and the yield is at a relatively low level. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [5][6][7]. Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. However, due to low asset valuations and China's economic resilience, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and long positions in stock index futures are considered [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures had different performances. Given the complex global trade and financial environment, the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and long positions in gold futures are considered [11][12]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose and then fell. The real - estate downturn suppresses rebar demand, and it is in the off - season. The price is at a low level, and there may be short - term weak oscillations. Short positions on rebounds are recommended [13][14]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, but it found support at the previous low. Long positions at low levels are recommended [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded. The market is in a supply - surplus situation, and short positions on rebounds are recommended [18][19]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures rose. The short - term demand may peak, and the supply is excessive. Long positions need caution, and low - value call options can be considered [21][22]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil opened high and closed low. With upcoming Sino - US trade negotiations and the expected weakening of OPEC's pressure on oil prices, the oil price is expected to strengthen, and long positions are considered [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil opened high and closed low. Rising crude oil prices may drive up fuel oil prices, and long positions are considered [26][27][28]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. Supply pressure persists, and demand improvement is limited. Wait for stabilization and then participate in rebounds [29][30]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber futures rose. There are concerns about demand and high inventory. Wait for the market to stabilize and then consider long positions [31][32][33]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures rose. The short - term fundamentals change little, and it mainly follows the macro - sentiment. It is in a bottom - oscillating state [34][36]. Urea - Last trading day, urea futures fell. Short - term cost decline and delayed agricultural demand lead to adjustments, but exports and future agricultural demand may drive the price up. Long positions at low levels can be considered [37][38][39]. PX - Last trading day, PX futures rose. Short - term crude oil prices oscillate, and the supply - demand structure is tight. It should be treated with an oscillating mindset, and interval operations are recommended [40]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply - demand structure weakens, but inventory reduction and cost support exist. Interval operations at low levels are recommended [41][42]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply - demand situation weakens, but inventory reduction increases short - term games. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to inventory and policies [43]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber futures rose. Downstream demand weakens, but cost support exists. Follow the cost - end oscillations and consider long positions at low levels [44]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. Raw material prices decline, and the supply - demand fundamentals improve. Follow the cost - end oscillations and participate cautiously [45]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, soda ash futures rose. The long - term supply exceeds demand, and the short - term rebound may not be sustainable. Avoid excessive long positions [46]. Glass - Last trading day, glass futures rose. The actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the short - term rebound may not last. Control short - position risks [47][48]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, caustic soda futures rose. The overall supply - demand is loose, with regional differences. Long - position holders should control risks [49][50]. Pulp - Last trading day, pulp futures fell. The market is in a supply - demand stalemate in the off - season, and a turnaround may occur in August [51]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The supply - demand surplus persists, and the price is difficult to reverse without large - scale capacity clearance [52][53]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper futures rose. Sino - US trade negotiations are beneficial, and the basis for price increase exists. Long positions are considered [54][55]. Tin - Similar to lithium carbonate, the supply - demand surplus exists, and the price is difficult to reverse without large - scale capacity clearance [56][57]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel futures rose. The cost support weakens, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to decline [58]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures rose. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and the upward pressure on soybean meal is high. For soybean oil, consider low - value call options [59][60][61]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices rose. The inventory is increasing, and opportunities to widen the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil can be considered [62][63]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. Consider long positions in rapeseed meal after corrections [64][65][66]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton futures rose. The industry is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and USDA reports. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [67][68][69]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar futures rose. Overseas production is expected to increase, while domestic inventory is low. Consider long positions in batches [70][72][73]. Apples - Last trading day, apple futures oscillated. The new - year production is uncertain. Consider long positions after corrections [74][75]. Live Pigs - Last trading day, live - pig futures fell. Group - farm sales are increasing, and consider long - spread opportunities in peak - season contracts [76][77]. Eggs - Last trading day, egg futures fell. The supply is increasing, and short positions at high levels are considered [78][79]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn futures rose, and corn - starch futures fell. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [80][81][82]. Logs - Last trading day, log futures rose. The fundamentals have no obvious drivers, and beware of long - position sentiment disturbances [83][84][85].

Trade Negotiations - The US trade negotiation team has extended its stay in India, indicating progress in discussions aimed at finalizing a limited trade agreement that may lead to the cancellation of a 26% "reciprocal tariff" on Indian goods imposed by the Trump administration [1][2] - The negotiations are focused on reaching consensus on tariff reductions in the agriculture and automotive sectors before a July 9 deadline, with an emphasis on enhancing market access and reducing trade barriers [2][3] - India's exports to the US increased by nearly 28% year-on-year from January to April, reaching $37.7 billion, while imports rose to $14.4 billion, resulting in a trade surplus [2] Impact of Tariff Policies - The tariff policies of the Trump administration have significantly suppressed cargo shipments to the US, leading to a 25% decrease in cargo volume at the Port of Los Angeles in May [4] - The decline in cargo volume has broader implications for the logistics economy in Los Angeles, with a 1% drop in port cargo volume potentially resulting in the loss of 2,769 jobs and threatening an additional 4,000 jobs [4] Starlink's Progress in India - India has granted a key license to Elon Musk's Starlink, moving the satellite service provider closer to launching commercial internet services in the country [5][6] - The approval comes amid public disputes between Musk and Trump, which could jeopardize Starlink's contracts worth billions with the US government [5] - Starlink faces challenges in pricing, as mobile data costs in India are among the lowest globally, and it must also secure additional approvals and demonstrate compliance with local regulations [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold investment rating: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver investment rating: ★☆★, where the white star represents that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, suggesting to wait and see [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overnight, the gold price fluctuated, and silver rose along with the copper price breaking through resistance. Sino - US leaders agreed to continue implementing the Geneva Consensus and hold a new round of talks soon. The US weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose to 247,000, hitting an eight - month high. After the generally weak US economic data this week, the focus is on tonight's non - farm payrolls report. Gold should maintain the idea of buying on dips based on the strong support at $3000, and silver has opened up upside space after breaking through [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Information Trade and Tariff News - The US shows flexibility in reducing additional reciprocal tariffs on Japan [2] - US and Indian negotiators may finalize tariff cuts and market access issues to reach a temporary agreement [2] - Trump claims to reach a good trade agreement with Germany [2] Russia - related News - Trump and Putin did not reach any agreement on a face - to - face meeting. Trump said it's difficult to achieve an immediate cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. If the agreement with Russia fails, the US will take tough measures. Trump has not reviewed the Russia sanctions bill, believing it's too harsh [2] European Central Bank Policy - The European Central Bank cut three key interest rates by 25 basis points. Lagarde hinted that the interest - rate cut cycle may end, and the market no longer fully prices in another 25 - basis - point rate cut this year [2]

特朗普：我们将达成一项良好的德国贸易协议。 ...

美国商务部长卢特尼克：达成更好的贸易协议不会花那么长时间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The small-cap stocks in the U.S. are entering a historically strong performance period, raising hopes for a rebound after a poor showing in early 2025 [1] Group 1: Small-Cap Stock Performance - Small-cap stocks have outperformed large-cap stocks 60% of the time in June since 1990, particularly when large-cap stocks are performing well [1] - The Russell 2000 index, a benchmark for small-cap stocks, has not reached new highs since 2021 and is down 5.9% year-to-date [1] - The S&P 500 index has experienced volatility but is up 1.5% year-to-date, close to its historical high from February [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Trading Activity - Despite some rebound in high-risk stocks, traders remain negative on small-cap stocks, with the ratio of call options to put options for the Russell 2000 index at its lowest since February [3] - Short positions on the iShares Russell 2000 ETF have reached their highest level since 2022, indicating significant bearish sentiment among investors [3] Group 3: Potential for Upside - Accumulation of bearish positions could create conditions for a price increase if positive news prompts investors to unwind their bets against small-cap stocks [4] - There are signs of constructive agreements between the U.S. and its trade partners, along with strong economic data, which may enhance the attractiveness of small-cap stocks [4] - The Russell 2000 index has shown positive performance in June, outperforming the S&P 500 by over 0.5 percentage points in the first three trading days [4] - Technical analysts see a potential breakout point for the Russell 2000 index around 2100, with a possible increase of 19% to 2500 points by mid-August [4]

关税迎来两大消息！ 美国关税持续影响，不过今天下午有两大稍显积极的消息传来。 首先，据日本媒体报道，美国在降低对日本的额外" 对等关税 "方面表现出灵活性。日本将向美国提交一份关 于构建稀土供应网络的合作方案，日本政府希望通过这项联合"应对方案"获得美国的让步。 其次，美国贸易代表杰米森·格里尔当地时间周三表示，美国与欧盟就解决紧张关税争端的谈判正在"快速进 展"。据美国贸易代表办公室发布的新闻稿称，格里尔周三在巴黎经济合作与发展组织会议期间会见了欧盟贸 易专员马罗斯·塞夫乔维奇。 日本传来的消息 日本与美国的关税谈判进入到关键阶段。日本首席贸易谈判代表赤泽良圣表示，日本将坚持其立场，寻求在本 月领导人峰会前的最后一次部长级会谈中取消所有美国关税。 赤泽良圣周四在东京前往华盛顿时表示："日本将继续强烈敦促美国重新考虑其一系列关税措施。"他补充说， 他不确定哪些美国官员将与他进行第五轮贸易谈判。 赤泽 良圣 定于周日返回日本，届时七国集团将在加拿大召开会议，会议将持续约一周。预计日本首相石破茂 和美国总统唐纳德·特朗普将在会议间隙举行会晤，外界对双方宣布达成贸易协议的期待日益高涨。 本周早些时候，赤泽 良圣 表 ...

美国商务部长卢特尼克：（谈及美国汽车制造业的问题）出口信贷将伴随着贸易协议。 ...

据报道，美国与阿联酋将就潜在贸易协议展开谈判。 ...

英国正面临新的五周期限，以敲定与美国的贸易协议。此前，美国总统特朗普免除了对英国钢铁和铝出 口加征的关税，使其免于现有关税翻倍。 英国获得了豁免，避免了50%的高额关税，同时双方正在就特朗普和英国首相斯塔默上月宣布的关税减 免协议的细节进行谈判。但白宫宣布实施新税率的公告中保留了将这一税率适用于英国钢铁和铝的可能 性，前提是总统认为英国未遵守协议。 这一结果意味着，英国仍面临其最亲密盟友加征关税的威胁，尽管它正努力按照特朗普和斯塔默达成的 协议取消此前25%的关税。美国设定的最后期限加大了英国贸易谈判代表的压力，他们最近几天一直在 努力让美国承诺解决协议中未完成部分(如关税)的时间表。 英国钢铁行业一再警告称，对美国进口产品加征关税可能会进一步危及本已面临全球产能过剩、钢价低 迷和许多关键工业领域需求疲软的钢厂的生存能力。 根据英国钢铁协会的数据，英国每年向美国出口约20万吨钢铁，价值超过4亿英镑(5.32亿美元)。 根据上月宣布的协议，英国政府表示，对出口到美国的金属的关税将削减至零，汽车关税将降至10%。 作为回报，英国同意加快美国商品的通关速度，并减少对"数十亿美元"农产品、化学品、能源和工业出 口(包 ...