Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing tension between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, highlighting Trump's pressure for interest rate cuts and the potential appointment of a "shadow chairman" to influence Fed policy [6][7]. Group 1: Economic Policy and Inflation - Trump has suggested that the federal funds rate should be lowered by 300 basis points, citing low inflation as a reason for the Fed to cut rates [6]. - If inflation rises in the next three months, it may complicate Trump's ability to pressure Powell, as he could appoint a shadow chairman to argue that any inflation increase is temporary [6]. - The short-term motivations of the U.S. government could lead to inflationary pressures, which may conflict with the Fed's long-term goals of economic stability [6]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence - Despite Trump's negative stance towards the Fed, it is difficult for him to significantly influence its policies due to the strong institutional framework and safeguards in place [7]. - Any new chairman appointed by Trump would still require Senate approval, and monetary policy decisions involve a committee of 19 members, making unilateral influence challenging [7]. - There is a risk that a new chairman aligned with Trump's views could undermine the Fed's independence, which could have detrimental effects on the U.S. economy and market confidence [7].

美联储于香港时间上周四(7月31日)凌晨结束议息会议，一如预期维持利率不变。对此，老虎证券(香港) 资产管理首席投资官陈庆炜分析指，美联储虽维持利率不变，然而主席鲍威尔在记者会上的鹰派立场， 无疑为市场的降息预期泼了一盆冷水。综合来看，年底前美联储的行动将比市场预期的更为谨慎，最多 降息一次。 首先，老虎证券(香港)维持年底前最多降息一次的观点。鲍威尔在会上反应非常坚定，反覆强调一切视 乎数据，并未给出任何关于降息时间点的暗示。尽管会议声明承认经济增长放缓，且内部出现了30年来 最显著的两张反对票，要求立即减息，但鲍威尔的态度清晰表明，在通胀数据未有明确、持续回落至目 标水平前，他不会轻易松开政策的油门。市场必须摒弃幻想，重新审视美联储的决策定力。 总括而言，美联储的政策大门虽未完全关闭，但其门槛比市场想象的要高得多。 其次，降息的信心基础或需等到10月后才能建立。虽然近期的就业和通胀数据已初现经济放缓及成本向 消费品传导的趋势，但关键变量在于关税。鉴于新关税的实际征收时间已推迟至8月1日，其对物价的传 导过程亦将相应延后。这意味着，鲍威尔至少需要观察8月和9月两份完整的经济报告，才能初步判断由 关税引发的物 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is set to announce new nominees for the Federal Reserve Board, which has significant implications for U.S. monetary policy and the independence of the Fed [1][4][20] Group 1: Importance of Federal Reserve Board Nomination - The Federal Reserve Board has seven members responsible for setting national monetary policy, supervising financial institutions, and managing liquidity and inflation expectations [5] - The recent vacancy due to the resignation of a board member provides Trump with a critical opportunity to influence the Fed's direction, especially amid current economic challenges [5][9] - The new appointee could shift the balance within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), impacting interest rates and asset pricing [5][8] Group 2: Potential Nominees - Trump may consider several candidates, including Scott Basset, Kevin Walsh, Kevin Hassett, and Christopher Waller, each with distinct policy orientations [9][12] - Basset is closely aligned with Trump and supports aggressive rate cuts, while Walsh has a more moderate stance with a history at the Fed [9][12] - The choice of nominee will likely affect the Senate confirmation process and the future direction of monetary policy [12] Group 3: Market Reactions and Implications - Following Trump's announcement, bond markets reacted swiftly, with increased expectations for early rate cuts [13] - Concerns have emerged regarding the potential erosion of the Fed's independence, which could undermine the dollar's status as a safe asset [17][20] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that political interference in central bank independence could jeopardize macroeconomic stability and market confidence [20]

Core Viewpoint - Concerns are rising regarding the credibility of U.S. institutions, which may lead to further selling pressure on the dollar and other U.S. assets [1][6]. Group 1: Economic and Market Implications - The resignation of Fed Governor Kugler, a hawkish figure, may accelerate market expectations for interest rate cuts, with a 94.4% probability of a rate cut in September now priced in by the market [3][5]. - The recent weak non-farm payroll data has prompted traders to increase bets on Fed rate cuts, contributing to a decline in the dollar against all G10 currencies [1][3]. - The ICE Dollar Index fell to a one-week low of 98.58, with the Bloomberg Dollar Index down nearly 8% year-to-date [1]. Group 2: Political Influence on Economic Data - Trump's recent actions, including the firing of the Labor Statistics Bureau head, have raised concerns about the integrity of U.S. economic data, potentially leading to a higher risk premium for U.S. assets [1][6]. - Analysts suggest that the political pressure exerted by Trump on the Fed has undermined its independence, further complicating the market's perception of U.S. economic data reliability [6][8]. - The potential nomination of close Trump associates to key economic positions could negatively impact investor sentiment towards the dollar [6][8]. Group 3: Future Leadership of the Fed - The upcoming nomination for the Fed chair position is seen as a risk event for the market, especially with speculation surrounding potential candidates [8]. - Candidates with prior Fed experience, such as Kevin Warsh, are viewed more favorably compared to those closely associated with Trump, like Kevin Hassett [7][8].

此前两天，美联储理事阿德里安娜·库格勒宣布将辞去美联储理事职位，其任职期原定于明年1月到期。 同时，特朗普还因为劳动力市场数据显示就业增长疲软，解雇了劳工统计局局长埃里卡·麦肯塔弗。 在全球经济增长轨迹令人担忧的背景下，这两起人事变动可能会影响特朗普的经济议程。这让特朗普有 机会任命更符合其政府政策的人选，并进一步给美联储主席鲍威尔施加压力。 打开降息"后门" 7月30日，美联储连续第五次维持利率不变，鲍威尔表示，美联储在制定利率政策时不会考虑联邦政府 的财政需求，且不会提前决定9月的利率，其强调要依据经济数据作出决策。 当天，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒和副主席米歇尔·鲍曼在议息会议上罕见地投下反对票，支持立即降 息25个基点，引发外界关注。 当地时间8月3日，美国总统特朗普表示，他将在几天内宣布新的美联储理事和劳工统计局局长。 特朗普与美联储的"恩怨"可谓由来已久，且近期持续升级，主要围绕利率政策展开。 库格勒辞职后，特朗普在毫无证据的情况下声称，她辞职是因为在利率问题上与鲍威尔存在分歧，并再 次批评鲍威尔，要求他辞职。 不过，现年55岁的库格勒在提交给特朗普的辞呈中未说明离职原因，仅提到她将于今年秋季重返 ...

黄金股ETF单日最高涨超5% 8月4日盘中，黄金股ETF大涨，国泰基金、工银瑞信、华夏基金、永赢基金旗下的黄金股ETF在早盘均 涨超3%，下午则延续上涨走势，均涨超4%。Wind数据显示，截至下午收盘，国泰黄金股ETF领涨全市 场ETF，达5.04%。同期，华夏黄金股ETF、工银瑞信黄金股ETF、永赢黄金股ETF分别收涨4.49%、 4.34%、4.28%，平安黄金股ETF也收涨3.94%。 黄金股ETF爆发。8月4日盘中，多只黄金股ETF表现强劲，截至下午收盘，国泰黄金股ETF领涨全市场 ETF，达5.04%，同期也有多只黄金股ETF涨超4%。国际金价方面，8月4日，伦敦金现、COMEX黄金 走势分化，但在前一个交易日，伦敦金现价格突破3360美元/盎司关口，COMEX黄金价格也突破3400美 元/盎司。有观点认为，黄金在前期避险情绪回落等因素影响下持续调整，但随着近日美元及风险资产 大幅走弱，市场降息预期显著回升。还有业内人士指出，若避险情绪、通胀预期以及美元走弱等因素没 有发生实质性的变化，金价很难出现大幅下跌走势。 若拉长时间至年内来看，Wind数据显示，截至8月4日，平安黄金股ETF、国泰黄金股ET ...

智通财经APP获悉，华尔街策略师和经济学家表示，由于美国政府机构的可信度遭受威胁，包括美元在 内的美国资产正面临被进一步抛售的风险。 随着美联储理事库格勒(Adriana Kugler)上周五辞职，美国总统特朗普现在有机会提名其继任者，这一举 动可能会削弱美联储主席鲍威尔的影响力。再加上特朗普上周解雇美国劳工统计局局长埃丽卡·麦肯塔 弗(Erika McEntarfer)，市场担心经济数据和货币政策独立性受到威胁，投资者可能因此下调对美国资产 的估值。而这种担忧今年以来已经对美元造成冲击，一些基金已将资金转移出美国债券和股票。 在经济出现放缓迹象的背景下，对美国机构政治化的担忧也随之升温。瑞典SEB银行的高级经济学家 Robert Bergqvist表示："很不幸，我们正在目睹将越来越多的权力集中于白宫手中的新的严肃尝试。所 有这些都证明，持有不同美国资产需要更高的风险溢价是合理的。" 上周五公布的美国7月非农就业数据推动交易员加大了对美联储降息的押注。货币市场定价显示，美联 储在9月降息的可能性已高于不降息的可能性。 布朗兄弟哈里曼公司策略师Elias Haddad表示："美国政策制定的可信度正面临日益严重 ...

一个是全世界最有权势的总统，一个是全球最具影响力的"央行行长"。为何特朗普与鲍威尔总是互掐？ 美联储为何敢不听总统的话？ 说起来，鲍威尔的美联储的主席是特朗普任命提名，咱们一起来分析分析。 美联储自诞生起就不是为总统服务。作为联邦制国家，美国人对太多的权力集中在少数人手里这件事， 骨子里很警惕。 美国制定国家根本大法《宪法》，也是来自各州的55名代表唇枪舌剑辩论127天才讨论出来的。所从自 1776年建国至今，一大半的时间都没有中央银行的概念，中央银行不存在。 没有中央银行，谁来印钱呢？ 当时只要锚定黄金之类的硬通货，私人银行就可以发行货币。但这也带来了问题，美国人同样信不过小 银行，有一点风吹草动就把钱拿出来，一挤兑就很容易引发银行的危机。 美国人搞了无数次银行危机，折腾了很多次，大家筋疲力尽才考虑成立一个中央银行。中央银行的重要 任务是最后救济的一个大银行，当银行面临破产时，央行可提供救济。 这又把各个州的政府银行都聚在一起开会，讨论了三四年，直至1913年，美国已建国130多年才成立美 联储，全称叫"美国联邦储备系统"。 美联储性质复杂，更像是公私合营的组织，既有代表国家的联邦储备局，也有代表地方的联邦 ...

Core Points - Trump is expected to announce new appointments for the Federal Reserve Board and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which could reshape his economic policy agenda for the remainder of his term [1] - The resignation of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler creates an opportunity for Trump to appoint a candidate more aligned with his preference for interest rate cuts [2] - The recent firing of Labor Statistics Bureau Chief Erika McEntarfer follows weak non-farm payroll data, raising questions about the integrity of economic data [4][5] Group 1: Federal Reserve Appointments - Trump plans to select a new Federal Reserve Board member and announce a new Labor Statistics Bureau Chief within a few days [1] - The vacancy left by Kugler allows Trump to appoint a board member who aligns with his interest rate policies, potentially influencing the selection of the next Fed Chair [2] - The next Fed Chair's appointment will be strategic, as it may occur before Powell's term ends in May 2026, allowing Trump to position his preferred successor [2] Group 2: Labor Statistics Bureau Changes - The dismissal of McEntarfer has drawn criticism, particularly as she was confirmed with bipartisan support [4][5] - Trump accused McEntarfer of manipulating key economic data without providing evidence, which has raised concerns about the reliability of labor statistics [4] - Recent non-farm payroll data showed a significant drop in job growth, with July's figures at 73,000, the lowest in nine months, and substantial downward revisions for previous months [4]

Group 1 - The event on July 24, where President Trump publicly urged Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to lower interest rates, highlights a significant power struggle between the presidency and the central bank, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][3][5] - Trump's physical gesture towards Powell, interpreted as a directive rather than a collaborative discussion, has sparked discussions about the implications for the Federal Reserve's autonomy [3][4][6] - The historical context of the Federal Reserve's independence, established to prevent political interference in monetary policy, is crucial for understanding the seriousness of this incident [5][6][20] Group 2 - Trump's insistence on lowering interest rates is driven by political motives, particularly as the 2024 election approaches, where economic performance is a key factor for his campaign [9][11][12] - The stock market's performance is a significant concern for Trump, as he views it as a reflection of his economic achievements, and lowering interest rates typically boosts market valuations [10][11] - The immediate market reaction included a drop in the dollar index and a decrease in 10-year Treasury yields, indicating investor concerns about potential political interference in monetary policy [14][16] Group 3 - The potential consequences of undermining the Federal Reserve's independence could lead to long-term economic instability, as evidenced by historical examples where political interference resulted in economic crises [20][21][22] - The current political climate shows a divide in Congress, with some members supporting Trump's stance while others emphasize the need to protect the Federal Reserve's independence [16][25] - The future of this power struggle will depend on the Federal Reserve's response, market reactions, and potential legislative measures aimed at safeguarding the central bank's autonomy [25][26][30]