Core Viewpoint - The surge in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, surpassing 5%, is causing significant market volatility and raising concerns about inflation and government fiscal health, overshadowing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. stock market faced pressure with the Nasdaq 100 index down 0.8% and the S&P 500 index down 0.7%, as all major tech stocks declined [1]. - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) has risen from its recent lows, indicating increased market risk aversion [1]. - The rise in 30-year Treasury yields is part of a broader global bond market sell-off, reflecting investor concerns over expanding budget deficits and increased bond issuance [4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The 5% yield level is seen as a critical psychological threshold for investors, prompting a reassessment of high stock valuations, particularly for interest-sensitive growth stocks [1][5]. - Historical data shows that when the 30-year Treasury yield breached 5%, it led to significant market reactions, with the S&P 500 index dropping 2.3% in May after a similar rise [5]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The current market environment is complicated by political factors, including criticism of the Federal Reserve and potential changes to tariff policies, which could impact inflation and government revenue [6]. - Rising interest rates are raising concerns about future economic growth and the implications for corporate and consumer capital costs, which could negatively affect earnings growth in an already expensive stock market [6].

美联储巴尔金：长期利率处于历史正常区间内。 来源：滚动播报 ...

在美国各项经济数据释放信号不一致、关税政策对通胀影响仍然不明的背景下，美联储能否顶住政治压 力，维持货币政策独立性？特朗普任命"影子主席"的做法能否左右降息前景？为何特朗普突然紧盯翻修 案？投资者又该如何交易布局呢？就这些问题，第一财经专访了瑞士百达财富管理美国高级经济学家崔 晓。 特朗普提名"影子主席"作用有限 崔晓对第一财经分析称，"从法理层面来讲，如果因为特朗普仅仅因为与鲍威尔在利率问题上意见不一 致，就想解雇他是完全不可能的，因为之前最高法院的案子已经再次强化了，美联储是一个独立机 构。"如果特朗普"因故"要解雇鲍威尔，只能利用翻修案，但整个过程也会非常混乱和棘手，因为翻修 案这个事情是否严重到足以构成"因故"中的"故"，需要由白宫先提交相关诉讼，然后由一层层法院审 核，最终由高等法院裁决。在整个漫长的裁决过程中，鲍威尔仍有权留任美国联邦公开市场委员会 （FOMC）理事。并且，FOMC主席由谁担任是由FOMC成员决定的，凭借鲍威尔和FOMC成员的关 系，他们也会继续支持鲍威尔在此期间继续担任主席。鲍威尔本人也曾表态，除非他去世，否则没有任 何事情能阻碍他完成任期。 根据1913年的《联邦储备法》第10 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses Trump's attempts to manipulate economic data to present a more favorable view of the economy, which could backfire and damage his presidency more than any real data would [1][2] - The latest employment report shows a significant slowdown in hiring, leading to the dismissal of the BLS chief economist by Trump, who accused the agency of "manipulating" employment data [1][2] - The BLS's employment survey quality has been questioned, with budget cuts and complex methodologies increasing the probability of errors, but data revisions are meant to enhance accuracy [1][2] Group 2 - Trump's administration is seen as trying to control government agencies, including those that should operate independently, to produce favorable economic statistics [2] - The article highlights the potential for adverse economic data to emerge as tariffs and immigration policies continue to negatively impact the economy [2][3] - The bond market is signaling concerns about the "Trump economy," with a risk premium indicating investor fears about future inflation and policy uncertainty [3][4] Group 3 - Even if Trump successfully pressures the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, long-term rates may rise due to increased inflation expectations, contradicting his goals [4] - The manipulation of economic data could exacerbate market uncertainty and increase risk premiums, potentially leading to significantly higher mortgage rates [4] - The article suggests that the real issue for the American public is the perception of economic mismanagement and a sense of lost prosperity, rather than the potential for recession [5]

Group 1 - Hedge funds sold technology stocks at the fastest pace in the past 12 months, coinciding with the S&P 500 index reaching a historical high [1] - The scale of the sell-off in technology stocks was the largest observed by Goldman Sachs since July 2024, primarily concentrated in North America and Europe [1] - Almost all types of technology stocks, including semiconductor companies, software firms, and IT service providers, were sold off [1] Group 2 - Consumer staples stocks became one of the most net bought sectors by hedge funds in the recent week, marking the fourth consecutive week of increased positions, primarily in long positions [1] - The S&P 500 index has risen approximately 28% since its low in 2025, driven by strong performance in technology stocks, while the Nasdaq Composite Index surged by 38% during the same period [1] Group 3 - As of last Friday, the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 index was 23.11, close to a five-month high, indicating elevated valuations compared to the historical average [2] - U.S. stock valuations are currently 30% higher than the average over the past decade, with long-term interest rates remaining high and volatile [2] - The future direction of the stock market may depend on a potential decline in long-term interest rates, which has not yet occurred [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Shinichi Uchida, stated that there have not been any significant fluctuations in long-term interest rates recently [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is monitoring the stability of long-term interest rates [1] - Recent observations indicate a lack of dramatic changes in the long-term interest rate environment [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the **Gold Futures** market, particularly in the context of geopolitical events and economic indicators affecting gold prices. Core Insights and Arguments - A **ceasefire between Israel and Iran** led to widespread liquidation in gold futures, with gold prices falling **2.1%** from June 17th to June 24th. Managed Money, Other, and Non-Reportable net futures length declined by **$4.5 billion** during this period, with long unwinds accounting for **90%** of total selling [2][2][2]. - The **prospects of imminent trade deals** added further pressure on gold prices, as negotiations with major trading partners improved, reducing the demand for safe-haven assets. For instance, Goldman Sachs's Tariff Risk equity basket reached a **4-month high** by June 27th, while gold lost an additional **1.4%** [2][2][2]. - The nature of futures selling has potentially transitioned, as evidenced by an increase in aggregate open interest by **$1.8 billion** on June 27th, despite a **1.8%** drop in gold prices, indicating a dominance of short selling [2][2][2]. - The short-term flow picture appears precarious, with the Goldman Sachs Futures Strategists' CTA model indicating that price decreases have shifted short-term momentum into negative territory, although medium-term trends remain positive [2][2][2]. - Bulls' hopes are now reliant on **central banks** and the implications of the "big beautiful bill." Goldman Sachs Commodity Research noted strong central bank demand through April and intentions to continue purchases over the next year. However, the trajectory of U.S. debt and deficits remains concerning, with tariff revenues potentially offsetting deficit increases from the proposed legislation [2][2][2]. Additional Important Content - The **options market** showed a mix of call selling and put buying, with gold's 3-month implied volatility decreasing and the 25 delta put-call skew reaching a multi-month maximum [2][2][2]. - There is a strong positive correlation between gold and **30-year U.S. Treasury yields**, indicating that any adverse financial market response, such as a rise in long-term interest rates, could significantly impact gold prices [2][2][2]. - The overall sentiment in the gold market is influenced by geopolitical events, trade negotiations, and central bank policies, which are critical for investors to monitor for potential investment opportunities and risks [2][2][2].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated that a long-term interest rate level of 3% is considered reasonable [1] Group 1 - The statement reflects the Fed's perspective on interest rates and their implications for the economy [1] - A 3% long-term interest rate may influence investment decisions and economic growth forecasts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The credibility of the Federal Reserve in maintaining price stability is crucial, and any doubts about its credibility could lead to an increase in long-term interest rates [1] Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized the importance of the Fed's credibility in price stability [1] - A potential loss of credibility for the Federal Reserve could result in rising long-term interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The credibility of the Federal Reserve in maintaining price stability is crucial, as any doubts about its credibility could lead to an increase in long-term interest rates [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Federal Reserve Credibility - The Federal Reserve's reputation is essential for ensuring price stability in the economy [1] - A loss of credibility could result in rising long-term interest rates, impacting economic conditions [1]