美联储巴尔金：当前长期利率受美国国债供需情况驱动，随着赤字扩大，国债供应增加。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - Japan's long-term interest rate reached 2.015% on December 19, marking the first time it has surpassed 2% since August 1999, driven by concerns over fiscal deterioration and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes [2] - On December 17, the long-term interest rate hit 1.98%, the highest level since June 2007, reflecting a 0.91% increase compared to the end of 2024, influenced by fears of worsening fiscal conditions under the current government and expectations of further interest rate hikes [4] - The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75% on December 19, the highest level in 30 years since the collapse of the bubble economy, amid ongoing inflation driven by yen depreciation [4] Group 2 - The last time long-term interest rates exceeded 2% in 2006, there were improvements in domestic economic and price outlooks, alongside heightened expectations for interest rate increases from the Bank of Japan [5] - The rise in Japan's domestic interest rates has also been influenced by increasing long-term rates in the United States [5]

Core Viewpoint - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, supports Kevin Warsh for the Federal Reserve chairmanship, believing he would be a "great chairman" and warning against Kevin Hassett's potential influence from the White House, which could undermine the Fed's independence [1][2]. Group 1: Dimon's Analysis - Dimon warns that if Hassett is appointed, he may quickly lower short-term interest rates to align with Trump's economic demands, but the Fed can only control short-term rates while long-term rates are determined by the market [2]. - Concerns arise that aggressive rate cuts under Hassett could ignite inflation expectations, leading to a rise in long-term rates, such as the 10-year Treasury yield, due to investor sell-offs [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Since reports of Hassett's candidacy emerged, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has increased from 4.0% to 4.2%, indicating market pricing for the associated risks [3]. - There is growing anxiety among bond market traders regarding inflation, as the 5-year forward inflation swap rate has recently risen by 0.06 percentage points, reaching a one-month high [3]. Group 3: Investor Concerns - Senior investors managing a $30 trillion U.S. Treasury market have expressed concerns to Treasury officials about Hassett's political ties to Trump, questioning the potential impact on the credibility of monetary policy [5]. Group 4: Selection Process - Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with current Fed Chair Jay Powell's policies and has indicated that loyalty and willingness to cut rates are key criteria for his selection of a new chair [7]. - The selection process, led by incoming Treasury Secretary Scott Bansen, continues, with Trump expected to interview more candidates soon [9].

据英国《金融时报》报道，戴蒙在闭门会议中分析指出，若哈赛特当选，他极有可能会迅速降低 短期利率 ，以配合特朗普的经济诉求。然 而，美联储只能控制短端利率， 长期利率 （如10年期美债收益率）则由市场定价。 戴蒙警告称，由于市场担心哈赛特缺乏独立性且过于依附白宫，这种激进降息反而会点燃通胀预期。届时，由市场定价的 长端利率 （如10年 期美债收益率）将因投资者抛售债券而飙升。 换言之，白宫试图通过换人来降低融资成本的算盘，极可能被债券市场的"义警"打翻。 市场已经在为这种风险定价。自11月下旬媒体报道哈赛特成为领跑者以来，作为全球资产定价之锚的10年期美国国债收益率已从4.0%跳升至 4.2%。与此同时，债市交易员对通胀的焦虑正在升温——衡量长期通胀预期的关键指标"5年之5年"远期通胀互换利率（5y5y forward inflation swap）近期上涨了0.06个百分点，创下一个月新高。 戴蒙直言，沃什将成为一位"伟大的主席"，并警告称，另一位热门候选人凯文·哈赛特可能更顺从白宫的降息意愿，但这恰恰可能引发市场的反 向博弈，导致长期借贷成本不降反升，损害美联储至关重要的独立性。 周四，华尔街最有权势的银行 ...

来源：华尔街情报圈 周五全球市场的收盘具有明显欺骗色彩： 第二，这些市场的下跌都是从北京时间周六凌晨0:00开始，并在1:00加速。0:00–1:00 是流动性最薄，最容易暴露大资金真实意图的时间段。价格在此时突 然一致性下跌，那只有一种解释——这是"主动卖盘"，而不是被动反应。尤其是1:00 的第二波卖盘，这是机构级别的"悄悄撤离"。 第三，昨晚美联储青睐的通胀指标表现良好，一度引发黄金、美股冲高，但仅仅两个小时后这股情绪便消散——利好无法刺激新增买盘。 周五收盘，是一个危险的拐点苗头。下周不需要大消息，只需要一个中等利空，就可能触发全市场的同步调整。 看上去波澜不惊（点位上的"欺骗性平静"），美股小幅上涨，黄金小幅下跌，美元收盘持平，但实际是一场"无声的撤退"。 第一，不用看任何新闻，仅仅是收盘数据就有诸多问题。 · 比特币跌破90000美元，关键的85000水平再度受到考验——这是一个不祥信号，机构杠杆资金在悄悄撤离； · 美国国债跌幅扩大，10年期国债收益率升至4.14%，本周创下"解放日"（4 月大反转）以来最大的单周涨幅。昨天我们说过——长期利率不配合（"降息 故事"没有传导到"长期利率"），是这 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve official Waller stated that sound and stable fiscal policies can ensure long-term interest rate stability [1] Group 1 - Waller emphasized the importance of fiscal policy in maintaining stable long-term interest rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, surpassing 5%, is causing significant market volatility and raising concerns about inflation and government fiscal health, overshadowing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The U.S. stock market faced pressure with the Nasdaq 100 index down 0.8% and the S&P 500 index down 0.7%, as all major tech stocks declined [1]. - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) has risen from its recent lows, indicating increased market risk aversion [1]. - The rise in 30-year Treasury yields is part of a broader global bond market sell-off, reflecting investor concerns over expanding budget deficits and increased bond issuance [4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The 5% yield level is seen as a critical psychological threshold for investors, prompting a reassessment of high stock valuations, particularly for interest-sensitive growth stocks [1][5]. - Historical data shows that when the 30-year Treasury yield breached 5%, it led to significant market reactions, with the S&P 500 index dropping 2.3% in May after a similar rise [5]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The current market environment is complicated by political factors, including criticism of the Federal Reserve and potential changes to tariff policies, which could impact inflation and government revenue [6]. - Rising interest rates are raising concerns about future economic growth and the implications for corporate and consumer capital costs, which could negatively affect earnings growth in an already expensive stock market [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Barkin stated that long-term interest rates are within a historically normal range [1] Group 1 - Long-term interest rates are currently considered to be at a normal level compared to historical data [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, highlighting the political dynamics and implications for monetary policy independence [1][2][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Independence - Trump's attempts to influence the Federal Reserve, including the nomination of a "shadow chairman," face legal challenges due to the established independence of the Fed [4][5]. - Historical precedents show that past presidents have struggled to directly intervene in Fed policies without facing significant backlash [13][14]. Group 2: Political Pressure and Market Expectations - The political pressure from Trump may not successfully lead to immediate rate cuts, as the majority of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members remain cautious [8][9]. - Market expectations are shifting, with investors pricing in potential rate cuts after Powell's term ends, reflecting concerns over the Fed's independence [8][12]. Group 3: Potential Candidates for Fed Leadership - Several candidates for the "shadow chairman" position are discussed, with varying degrees of dovishness compared to Powell, but none are expected to fully comply with Trump's demands [6][7][8]. - The influence of these candidates on future monetary policy remains uncertain, as the ultimate decision-making power lies with Powell and the current FOMC [9][10]. Group 4: Economic Implications - Trump's strategy to lower long-term rates may backfire if it leads to increased inflation expectations, which could result in higher long-term rates instead [9][10]. - The potential for significant changes in the Fed's operational framework raises concerns about the long-term implications for monetary policy and economic stability [11][12]. Group 5: Investor Strategies - Investors are advised to consider the current environment where rate cuts are expected to be limited before Powell's departure, with more substantial cuts anticipated afterward [16][17]. - The divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) presents opportunities for investors to position themselves accordingly [16][17].

Group 1 - The article discusses Trump's attempts to manipulate economic data to present a more favorable view of the economy, which could backfire and damage his presidency more than any real data would [1][2] - The latest employment report shows a significant slowdown in hiring, leading to the dismissal of the BLS chief economist by Trump, who accused the agency of "manipulating" employment data [1][2] - The BLS's employment survey quality has been questioned, with budget cuts and complex methodologies increasing the probability of errors, but data revisions are meant to enhance accuracy [1][2] Group 2 - Trump's administration is seen as trying to control government agencies, including those that should operate independently, to produce favorable economic statistics [2] - The article highlights the potential for adverse economic data to emerge as tariffs and immigration policies continue to negatively impact the economy [2][3] - The bond market is signaling concerns about the "Trump economy," with a risk premium indicating investor fears about future inflation and policy uncertainty [3][4] Group 3 - Even if Trump successfully pressures the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, long-term rates may rise due to increased inflation expectations, contradicting his goals [4] - The manipulation of economic data could exacerbate market uncertainty and increase risk premiums, potentially leading to significantly higher mortgage rates [4] - The article suggests that the real issue for the American public is the perception of economic mismanagement and a sense of lost prosperity, rather than the potential for recession [5]