美联储换届

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东海证券晨会纪要-20250819
Donghai Securities· 2025-08-19 05:12
Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights a strong performance in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, with an overall increase of 3.08% from August 11 to August 15, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.71 percentage points [5][6] - Year-to-date, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has risen by 25.02%, ranking fourth among 31 industries, and surpassing the CSI 300 index by 18.22 percentage points [5][6] - The current PE valuation for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector stands at 31.31 times, which is at the historical median level, with a premium of 145% compared to the CSI 300 index [5][6] Group 2: Industry Developments - The National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) announced the preliminary review list for the 2025 National Basic Medical Insurance and commercial insurance drug directories, with 534 drugs passing the basic medical insurance review and 121 passing the commercial insurance review [6][7] - The NHSA issued a temporary management method for disease-based payment, aimed at addressing issues such as dynamic adjustment expectations and regional management disparities [6][7] - Novo Nordisk received FDA approval for a supplemental new drug application for semaglutide (Wegovy) to treat patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease [7] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is expected to continue its upward trend, driven by the recent announcements from the NHSA regarding drug directory updates and payment management reforms [7] - It is recommended to focus on investment opportunities in innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices, traditional Chinese medicine, chain pharmacies, and medical services as the market enters a period of intensive mid-year report disclosures [7][9] - A specific stock recommendation list includes companies such as Betta Pharmaceuticals, Teva Biologics, and Kaili Medical, with a watchlist including Kelun Pharmaceutical and Qianhong Pharmaceutical [9]
短线贵?属回调,关注美国通胀数据
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:32
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-8-12 短线贵⾦属回调,关注美国通胀数据 7⽉美国CPI预期上⾏,市场⼀致预期核⼼CPI环⽐0.31%,同⽐约3. 1%,美元指数⽇内同步向上,给⾦价带来短时回调压⼒。我们认为三季 度美国通胀的回升符合预期,美联储在⾮农数据恶化和⼈事变动的双重压 ⼒下,部分票委态度显著转鸽,通胀温和上⾏对降息预期的⼲扰有限。 7⽉⾮农数据是市场情绪的重要转折,"TACO交易+美国基本⾯韧性+降 息预期收敛"的主导逻辑,开始向"美国基本⾯⾛弱验证+降息预期扩 张"切换,美联储换届或带来远期更加鸽派的路径和美联储独⽴性的重新 考量。 重点资讯: 1)美国财长贝森特在接受采访时表示,美国总统特朗普的关税政策 旨在将制造业带回美国。贸易方面,他认为到10月底前就能基本完成 相关工作。贝森特称,下任美联储主席应获市场信任,希望美联储主 席具备 "前瞻性思维"。 2)中国稀土集团发布严正声明称,公司从未与相关机构、单位就所 谓"稀土人民币稳定币"开展任何形式的合作、磋商或计划,该信息 系不法分子恶意编造,请社会公众和广大投资者不信不传。公司提醒 社 ...