晨会纪要 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 29 日 核心结论 分析师 【煤炭】兖矿能源（600188.SH）首次覆盖报告：煤炭国企，布局广泛 预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 94.48 亿、120.19 亿、141.71 亿， EPS 分别为 0.94、1.20、1.41 元，同比增长-39.61%、27.21%、17.91%。 考虑 DDM 估值方法，给予公司目标价 16.27 元/股。首次覆盖，给予"买入" 评级。 【电力设备】爱旭股份（600732.SH）跟踪点评：行业竞争导致业绩承压， 银价上涨有望推动贱金属化 投资建议：由于电池片价格仍在底部区间，且将持续一段时间，因此我们对 于 25 年盈利预测仍给予亏损，但随着产业政策加速与 BC 组件产业化进步， 预计爱旭股份业绩有望在 26 年迎来反转，我们预计公司 25-27 年实现归母 净利润-5.82/11.53/22.66 亿元，同比+89.1%/298.1%/96.6%，EPS 分别为 -0.27/0.54/1.07 元，但考虑到公司 ABC 组件有望带领公司走出困境，维持 "买入"评级 【美容护理】稳健医疗（300888. ...

1、 美联储的运行机制与货币政策的实施 美联储对美国及全球经济、市场起到非常重要的作用，货币政策的实施（加息/ 降息、扩表/缩表）是其对经济施 加影响的最关键手段，亦是市场关注的焦点。我们 首先从美联储的运行机制及货币政策的制定与实施出发，理顺 美联储的权力结构。 1.1、 美联储系统包含 3 大关键实体机构，FOMC 是制定货币政策的核心 根据美联储官方最新的说明文件1（The Fed Explained），作为美国的中央银行， 美联储系统共包含 3 大关键实体 机构（美联储理事会、12 家地方联储银行、联邦公 开市场委员会），并履行 5 大关键职能（执行美国的货币政 策、促进金融体系的稳定、 促进金融机构的安全与稳健、促进美元支付与结算体系的安全及效率、促进消费者 保 护与社区发展），主要目标则是充分就业和物价稳定（双重使命）。但美联储虽然 为公共利益服务，对美国国会 负责且受美国国会的监督，却并非完全的公立机构。 这一方面是因为美联储的理事会由总统提名，并经参议院通 过，是美国联邦政府的 分支机构之一（但享有独立的决策权）；另一方面美联储系统内的 12 家分支机构却 是私 营机构，由辖区内的商业银行持股 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights a strong performance in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, with an overall increase of 3.08% from August 11 to August 15, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.71 percentage points [5][6] - Year-to-date, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has risen by 25.02%, ranking fourth among 31 industries, and surpassing the CSI 300 index by 18.22 percentage points [5][6] - The current PE valuation for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector stands at 31.31 times, which is at the historical median level, with a premium of 145% compared to the CSI 300 index [5][6] Group 2: Industry Developments - The National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) announced the preliminary review list for the 2025 National Basic Medical Insurance and commercial insurance drug directories, with 534 drugs passing the basic medical insurance review and 121 passing the commercial insurance review [6][7] - The NHSA issued a temporary management method for disease-based payment, aimed at addressing issues such as dynamic adjustment expectations and regional management disparities [6][7] - Novo Nordisk received FDA approval for a supplemental new drug application for semaglutide (Wegovy) to treat patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease [7] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is expected to continue its upward trend, driven by the recent announcements from the NHSA regarding drug directory updates and payment management reforms [7] - It is recommended to focus on investment opportunities in innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices, traditional Chinese medicine, chain pharmacies, and medical services as the market enters a period of intensive mid-year report disclosures [7][9] - A specific stock recommendation list includes companies such as Betta Pharmaceuticals, Teva Biologics, and Kaili Medical, with a watchlist including Kelun Pharmaceutical and Qianhong Pharmaceutical [9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The rise in US inflation in Q3 is in line with expectations. Under the dual pressure of deteriorating non - farm data and personnel changes, some Fed voting members have turned significantly dovish, and the moderate rise in inflation has limited interference with the interest - rate cut expectations. - The July non - farm data is an important turning point for market sentiment. The dominant logic is shifting from "TACO trading + US fundamental resilience + convergence of interest - rate cut expectations" to "verification of weakening US fundamentals + expansion of interest - rate cut expectations". The Fed's leadership change may bring a more dovish long - term path and a re - evaluation of the Fed's independence. - The report maintains a bullish view on gold. It is expected that the upward trend of spot gold will be moderate below $3500, and the upward momentum may increase after breaking through this level. The movement of silver is following that of gold again, with obvious resistance at the $40 mark, and a breakthrough requires the cooperation of gold [1][3]. 3. Summary by Section Key Information - US Treasury Secretary Besent stated that President Trump's tariff policy aims to bring manufacturing back to the US, and relevant trade work is expected to be basically completed by the end of October. He also hopes that the next Fed Chairman will gain market trust and have "forward - looking thinking". - China National Rare Earth Group issued a statement clarifying that it has never cooperated, negotiated, or planned with relevant institutions or units regarding the so - called "rare - earth RMB stablecoin". The information was maliciously fabricated by lawbreakers. - The short positions in US small - cap stocks have reached the highest level since 2017. The notional value of non - commercial short contracts for the Russell 2000 index futures has exceeded $16 billion this month, and this position has doubled since May and further increased after the latest weak employment data in the US [2]. Price Logic - The decline in precious metal prices yesterday was due to two factors. Firstly, the US clarified the rumor of imposing tariffs on gold last Friday night, and the price difference between COMEX and LBMA gold narrowed significantly, weakening the sentiment in the US market. Secondly, the expected rise in the US CPI in July, with the market consensus expecting a 0.31% month - on - month increase and about 3.1% year - on - year increase in core CPI, and the simultaneous rise of the US dollar index, brought short - term downward pressure on gold prices [3]. Outlook - The expected trading range for London gold this week is between $3340 and $3500 per ounce, and for London silver, it is between $37 and $40 per ounce [6].