Core Viewpoint - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, supports Kevin Warsh for the Federal Reserve chairmanship, believing he would be a "great chairman" and warning against Kevin Hassett's potential influence from the White House, which could undermine the Fed's independence [1][2]. Group 1: Dimon's Analysis - Dimon warns that if Hassett is appointed, he may quickly lower short-term interest rates to align with Trump's economic demands, but the Fed can only control short-term rates while long-term rates are determined by the market [2]. - Concerns arise that aggressive rate cuts under Hassett could ignite inflation expectations, leading to a rise in long-term rates, such as the 10-year Treasury yield, due to investor sell-offs [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Since reports of Hassett's candidacy emerged, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has increased from 4.0% to 4.2%, indicating market pricing for the associated risks [3]. - There is growing anxiety among bond market traders regarding inflation, as the 5-year forward inflation swap rate has recently risen by 0.06 percentage points, reaching a one-month high [3]. Group 3: Investor Concerns - Senior investors managing a $30 trillion U.S. Treasury market have expressed concerns to Treasury officials about Hassett's political ties to Trump, questioning the potential impact on the credibility of monetary policy [5]. Group 4: Selection Process - Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with current Fed Chair Jay Powell's policies and has indicated that loyalty and willingness to cut rates are key criteria for his selection of a new chair [7]. - The selection process, led by incoming Treasury Secretary Scott Bansen, continues, with Trump expected to interview more candidates soon [9].

据英国《金融时报》报道，戴蒙在闭门会议中分析指出，若哈赛特当选，他极有可能会迅速降低 短期利率 ，以配合特朗普的经济诉求。然 而，美联储只能控制短端利率， 长期利率 （如10年期美债收益率）则由市场定价。 戴蒙警告称，由于市场担心哈赛特缺乏独立性且过于依附白宫，这种激进降息反而会点燃通胀预期。届时，由市场定价的 长端利率 （如10年 期美债收益率）将因投资者抛售债券而飙升。 换言之，白宫试图通过换人来降低融资成本的算盘，极可能被债券市场的"义警"打翻。 市场已经在为这种风险定价。自11月下旬媒体报道哈赛特成为领跑者以来，作为全球资产定价之锚的10年期美国国债收益率已从4.0%跳升至 4.2%。与此同时，债市交易员对通胀的焦虑正在升温——衡量长期通胀预期的关键指标"5年之5年"远期通胀互换利率（5y5y forward inflation swap）近期上涨了0.06个百分点，创下一个月新高。 戴蒙直言，沃什将成为一位"伟大的主席"，并警告称，另一位热门候选人凯文·哈赛特可能更顺从白宫的降息意愿，但这恰恰可能引发市场的反 向博弈，导致长期借贷成本不降反升，损害美联储至关重要的独立性。 周四，华尔街最有权势的银行 ...

Core Viewpoint - KBW downgraded Berkshire Hathaway's Class A shares from "Market Perform" to "Underperform" due to factors such as peak underwriting profit margins at GEICO, declining short-term interest rates, and tariff-related pressures [1] Group 1: Rating Changes - Berkshire Hathaway's Class A shares and Class B shares fell by 0.79% and 0.82% respectively on Monday [1] - Analyst Meyer Shields expressed concerns that GEICO's underwriting profit margins may have peaked, alongside other pressures affecting the company's performance [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast Adjustments - KBW adjusted the target price for Berkshire Hathaway's Class A shares from $740,000 to $700,000 [1] - The 2025 EPS forecast was slightly increased from $31,725 to $31,750, while the 2026 and 2027 EPS forecasts were reduced from $32,430 and $34,430 to $31,750 and $33,350 respectively [1] - The downward adjustments were attributed to expectations of reduced catastrophe losses in the property and casualty sector, declining investment income from insurance, slowing revenue growth in the railroad business, and potential reductions in energy tax credits [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. financing market is experiencing a "bull-bear divergence," with Wall Street strategists debating the potential for easing in the coming months, primarily driven by fluctuations in overnight borrowing costs [1] Group 1: Factors Driving Divergence - Multiple factors have contributed to the rise in U.S. short-term interest rates, creating the backdrop for the divergence. These include increased short-term bond issuance by the U.S. Treasury to rebuild cash reserves, which raises borrowing costs due to heightened demand for short-term funds [2] - The Federal Reserve's steady balance sheet reduction is tightening liquidity, further constraining the supply of funds [2] - The near-zero usage of the central bank's overnight lending facility indicates reduced reliance on the central bank, but also reflects uneven distribution of funds, potentially exposing some institutions to hidden gaps [2] Group 2: Contrasting Views from Major Banks - JPMorgan, led by Teresa Ho, advocates for easing, arguing that the market has overestimated the risks of rising financing costs, predicting a softening of overnight rates by the end of 2025. Their strategy involves buying December SOFR futures and selling equivalent federal funds futures, anticipating a narrowing of the current spread between SOFR (4.42%) and the 30-day federal funds rate (4.33%) [3] - Citigroup, under Jason Williams, takes a contrary stance, expecting financing costs to remain elevated or even rise by the end of 2025. Their strategy involves shorting December SOFR contracts relative to federal funds rates, predicting that SOFR will remain 4-5 basis points higher during favorable conditions [3][4] Group 3: Market Adjustments and Sentiments - Other institutions are also adjusting their positions, reflecting differing judgments. Barclays has shifted its stance, exiting a long position on SOFR relative to federal funds due to the normalization of rising financing costs [4] - Morgan Stanley remains optimistic, suggesting that liquidity pressures may ease by October, leading to a decline in financing costs, while American Bank adopts a flexible approach, closing short positions and recommending long positions on SOFR relative to federal funds for early 2026 [5] Group 4: Consensus on Liquidity Crisis - Despite significant divergence, there is a consensus among major banks that a liquidity crisis similar to the "cash crunch" of September 2019 is unlikely to recur. This is attributed to a more robust liquidity safety net, including the Federal Reserve's standing repo facility (SRF) and overall sufficient bank reserves [6][7] - The current banking system's buffer capacity is stronger than it was before the 2019 crisis, and improved policy communication has reduced market uncertainty, allowing the focus to shift to interest rate levels rather than potential crises [7]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan indicated that interest rates are too high and emphasized the necessity for significant rate cuts in the coming months to protect the labor market [1] Group 1 - Milan's speech marks his first policy address since being appointed by President Donald Trump, where he discussed the reasons for a decline in the neutral interest rate that is neither stimulative nor restrictive [1] - He noted that the previously overestimated neutral interest rate has recently declined due to tariffs, immigration restrictions, and tax policies [1] - Milan warned that maintaining short-term interest rates at approximately 2 percentage points is excessively tight, leading to unnecessary layoffs and an increased risk of unemployment [1]

Group 1 - Global investor sentiment is at its highest level since February 2025, indicating increased optimism among investors [1] - The likelihood of a hard landing for the economy has decreased to the lowest level since January 2025, suggesting improved economic stability [1] - The allocation to stocks has increased, although it has not yet reached extreme levels, reflecting a cautious but positive outlook [1] Group 2 - 78% of respondents expect short-term interest rates to decline within the next 12 months, indicating expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy [1] - 20% of respondents believe that Waller is the most likely candidate to become the next Federal Reserve Chair, while 19% favor Haskett and 15% favor Waller, showing varied opinions on future leadership [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, indicated that there is limited room for interest rate increases when necessary to boost the economy, with the current short-term interest rate maintained at 0.5% [1] Economic Indicators - The inflation trend is still some distance from the target of 2% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's monetary policy operations are implemented through the control of short-term interest rates [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan, led by Governor Kazuo Ueda, focuses on managing short-term interest rates as a primary tool for its monetary policy [1]