这个周末，不得不动笔码点字了，因为股和债，各有一个大事。 权益这边，周末， 外卖大战 如火如荼，各种补贴，各种零元购，家人们的冰箱都快塞不下了，而这，烧的都是股东们的钱，因此，下一步，港 股可能迎来真正的考验。 债券这边，因为债市科技板的"顶层设计"加持，比之前的基准做市信用债，可能规格更高的 科创债ETF ，下周就要开售了，很多都是只卖一天 ——而基准做市信用债ETF，三个多月，规模 已经 疯涨到突破1300亿，那么，科创债ETF，会怎么走，也值得关注。 就这两件事，依次聊聊。 ...... 1、外卖大战。 事情的背景，想必大家都清楚了，昨天，阿里发起了 "冲单日" ，发放大量满减优惠券，我自己也尝试刷了一下，确实部分情况下，可以实现"零 元购"，而美团紧急跟进了同类优惠，甚至因为短期流量过大，导致服务器崩了一下，当日的 即时零售订单突破1.2亿单，其中餐饮占1亿单，创 历史峰值，大家一起见证历史了。 5月2日， 淘宝闪购 提前全国上线， 首日发放大量的满减大额券； 5月5日， 淘宝闪购宣布 日订单突破1000万单 ，占行业日均单量（8000万单）的1/8； 6月23日， 阿里组织架构调整，饿了么、飞猪并入 ...

Group 1: Company Bond ETF Performance - As of July 3, 2025, the Company Bond ETF (511030) increased by 0.06%, with the latest price at 106.19 yuan. Over the past year, it has accumulated a rise of 2.18%, and over the past five years, the net value has increased by 13.30% [1] - The latest scale of the Company Bond ETF reached 21.864 billion yuan, marking a new high since its establishment. In terms of fund inflow, the latest net inflow was 28.6503 million yuan, with a total of 9.73 billion yuan net inflow over the past five trading days, averaging 1.95 billion yuan per day [1] Group 2: National Debt ETF Performance - As of July 3, 2025, the National Debt ETF for 5 to 10 years (511020) rose by 0.04%, achieving three consecutive increases, with the latest price at 117.73 yuan. Over the past three months, it has accumulated a rise of 1.19% [1] - The latest scale of the National Debt ETF for 5 to 10 years reached 1.498 billion yuan, a new high in three months. The trading liquidity showed a turnover of 0.16% with a transaction volume of 2.3426 million yuan, and the average daily transaction volume over the past week was 1.061 billion yuan [1] Group 3: National Development Bond ETF Insights - As of July 3, 2025, the National Development Bond ETF (159651) was in a state of indecision, with the latest quote at 106.26 yuan. Over the past year, it has accumulated a rise of 1.91% [2] - The trading liquidity of the National Development Bond ETF showed a turnover of 1.4% with a transaction volume of 12.9432 million yuan, and the average daily transaction volume over the past year was 5.28 billion yuan [2] Group 4: Market Trends and Predictions - Since the beginning of the year, there have been rumors of the central bank restarting national debt purchases almost every month. However, in June, many investors believed it had restarted, which has now been entirely disproven. To maintain the operational safety of banks and insurance, regulators need to control the pace of long-term bond yield declines [2] - The institution predicts that the 10-year national debt yield will rise by more than 20 basis points before the conditions for restarting national debt purchases are met. In July, the central bank continues to deliberately ease, making significant adjustments in the interest rate bond market unlikely [2] - The secondary trading of interest rate bonds on July 2 showed that large banks bought 31.8 billion yuan, while other banks sold a total of 19 billion yuan. Since the beginning of the year, bond funds have net purchased 158 billion yuan of interest rate bonds with a maturity of 20 years or more [3]

2025年上半年收官，ETF半程赛的最新战况也随之尘埃落定。 其中，沪深300ETF华夏是今年上半年获得净流入最多的股票型ETF，基金份额增长81.38亿份，区间净流入金 额高达303.17亿元。此外，华泰柏瑞、易方达、嘉实旗下的沪深300ETF也获得了资金的大举申购，区间净流 入金额分别达到153.25亿元、150.49亿元、117.7亿元。 另外，上半年有16家基金公司旗下的ETF新增总规模超过百亿元，其中华夏基金新增931.70亿元，目前以 7513.36亿元的ETF管理规模排在所有基金管理人之首，ETF市场马太效应愈来愈烈。 Wind数据显示，今年上半年，ETF总规模突破4万亿大关，达到4.31万亿元，与去年年底相比增长了15.57%， 其中增长幅度最大的是债券型ETF，年内规模增长了120.71%，达到3839.76亿元，宽基ETF虽然环比增幅仅有 2%，但截至今年上半年末的最新规模为2.23万亿元，依然占到ETF总规模的半壁江山。 从单只产品的情况来看，上半年共有18只ETF规模增长超过百亿元，其中7只为股票型ETF，且这些产品主要 以沪深300ETF等宽基产品、机器人ETF等行业主题产品为主。 ...

Group 1: Company Actions - Guotai Junan has repurchased 59.22 million A-shares, accounting for 0.3359% of its total share capital, with a total expenditure of 1.051 billion yuan [1] - The highest purchase price was 19.18 yuan per share, while the lowest was 16.49 yuan per share [1] Group 2: Fund Performance - Public funds in the first half of the year distributed a total of 127.51 billion yuan in dividends, marking a year-on-year increase of 37.53% [2] - Bond funds contributed over 85% of the total dividend amount, while QDII funds saw a staggering year-on-year increase of 1163.94% in dividend distribution [2] Group 3: Industry Trends - The total scale of bond ETFs has surpassed 350 billion yuan, reflecting a nearly twofold increase compared to early 2024 [4] - The rise of bond ETFs indicates a shift in market demand for stable asset allocation, potentially altering traditional bond investment patterns [4]

据彭博汇编数据，年迄今于台湾上市、追踪美债的ETF共见33亿美元的资金净流出，为2020年以来最大 的同期净流出量。该ETF市场逾2兆台币的资产中有绝大部分投资于美国国债与公司债，今年以来美债 与台币市场的剧烈波动已明显削弱投资人胃口。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The credit bond ETF fund (511200) has shown strong performance and liquidity, leading the comparable funds in both total return and net inflow, indicating a growing interest in bond ETFs as passive investment products [1][4]. Performance Summary - As of June 25, 2025, the credit bond ETF fund has accumulated a total increase of 1.08% since its inception, ranking first among comparable funds [1]. - The fund's latest price is 101.14 yuan, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 29.23 billion yuan over the past 16 days, totaling 132.64 billion yuan in net inflows [1]. Liquidity and Scale - The fund has achieved an average daily trading volume of 107.14 billion yuan over the past week, leading among comparable funds [1]. - The current scale of the credit bond ETF fund has reached 203.33 billion yuan, marking a new high since its establishment [1]. Drawdown and Recovery - The maximum drawdown since inception is 1.04%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.26%, and it has the fastest recovery time of 26 days among comparable funds [4]. Fee Structure - The management fee for the credit bond ETF fund is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, both of which are the lowest among comparable funds [4]. Industry Outlook - With decreasing interest rates making alpha returns harder to achieve, institutions are shifting towards beta management, leading to increased focus on bond index funds and ETFs [4]. - The future outlook for bond ETFs is positive, with expectations of significant growth driven by regulatory support, development focus from fund companies, and increased investor acceptance [4].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid growth of bond ETFs in China is driven by their scarcity, operational convenience, and the recent inclusion of credit bond ETFs in general pledge-style repurchase agreements, enhancing their attractiveness and liquidity [1][2][5]. Group 1: Growth of Bond ETFs - The total market size of bond ETFs has surpassed 360 billion yuan, with credit bond ETFs showing significant growth, particularly the Bosera Credit Bond ETF, which has recently exceeded 10 billion yuan in size [1]. - The scarcity of bond ETFs, such as the limited number of 30-year government bond index funds and convertible bond index funds, contributes to their appeal [2]. - The operational advantages of bond ETFs include low management fees, strong tool attributes, and transparent underlying assets, making them more attractive compared to traditional bond index funds [3][4]. Group 2: Institutional and Individual Participation - Institutional investors, including banks, insurance companies, and pension funds, dominate the bond ETF market, accounting for over 80% of the ownership structure, although individual investors are gradually increasing their participation [4]. - The recognition and acceptance of bond ETFs among individual investors are still in the early stages, but with increased investor education and product promotion, participation is expected to rise [4]. Group 3: Impact of Pledge Inclusion - The inclusion of multiple credit bond ETFs in general pledge-style repurchase agreements enhances their attractiveness by allowing investors to leverage their holdings for increased returns [5]. - The operational simplicity and low transaction costs associated with pledge transactions make credit bond ETFs particularly suitable for on-exchange investment needs [5]. - The liquidity of credit bond ETFs is significantly better than that of individual corporate bonds, and the continued growth in scale is expected to further enhance liquidity and meet customer trading demands [5]. Group 4: Stock-Bond Relationship - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect has been amplified in recent years, indicating a stronger inverse relationship between stock and bond market performances [6][7]. - The occurrence of days where stocks rise while bonds fall, or vice versa, has increased, with the proportion of such trading days rising to over 50% in recent years [6][7]. - The correlation between daily price movements of stocks and bonds has also increased, indicating a growing interdependence between the two asset classes [7].

Group 1 - Bond ETFs have become a favored investment direction this year, with several achieving record high scales [1][2] - As of June 20, Hai Futong Zhongzheng Short-term Bond ETF and Fuguo Government Bond ETF both surpassed 50 billion yuan in scale, marking them as the first bond ETFs in the market to reach this milestone [2] - The overall market has 29 bond ETFs, with 13 exceeding 10 billion yuan in scale, indicating strong demand for bond ETFs [2] Group 2 - Hai Futong Fund attributes the continuous growth of bond ETF scales to multiple factors, including market demand and the clear risk-return characteristics of bond ETFs [2] - Bond ETFs are seen as important tools for asset allocation, offering transparency in underlying assets and stable positions, catering to diverse investor needs [2] - The flexibility and liquidity of bond ETFs, along with a low investment threshold and convenient operation, make them efficient investment tools for investors with moderate risk preferences [2] Group 3 - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, Hai Futong Fund maintains that the fundamentals supporting the bond bull market have not changed [3] - Economic conditions are still in a structural adjustment phase, with a downward trend in bond yields expected to continue [3] - The bond market is anticipated to experience fluctuations, with factors such as resilient economic fundamentals and a rebound in social financing growth contributing to a "continuation of the bond bull market" [3]

Group 1: Company Bond ETF Performance - The Company Bond ETF (511030) has increased by 0.01%, marking its third consecutive rise, with the latest price at 106.06 yuan [1] - Over the past year, the Company Bond ETF has accumulated a total increase of 2.18% [1] - The latest scale of the Company Bond ETF reached 20.774 billion yuan, a new high in nearly one year [1] - The Company Bond ETF has seen continuous net inflows for 11 days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 1.538 billion yuan, totaling 5.212 billion yuan in net inflows, averaging 474 million yuan per day [1] Group 2: National Debt ETF Performance - The National Debt ETF for 5 to 10 years (511020) has risen by 0.02%, achieving its seventh consecutive increase, with the latest price at 117.65 yuan [4] - The latest scale of the National Debt ETF for 5 to 10 years is 1.433 billion yuan [4] Group 3: National Development Bond ETF Performance - The National Development Bond ETF (159651) has increased by 0.01%, marking its fifth consecutive rise, with the latest price at 106.22 yuan [6] - The latest scale of the National Development Bond ETF is 1.029 billion yuan [7] Group 4: Market Insights and Future Outlook - Recent strong performance in credit bonds is attributed to several factors, including stable funding rates maintained by the central bank through various operations [7] - The rapid growth of bank wealth management products in April and May has led to significant buying pressure in the market [7] - The insurance sector has seen a rebound in premium income growth, contributing to increased buying power in the market [7] - The market is currently at a critical point, with enthusiasm for long positions in 20-year and 50-year national bonds [8] - Technical indicators suggest a potential for a pullback after an initial rise, with a focus on maintaining liquidity as yields and spreads compress [8] - The "Three Musketeers" of bond ETFs from Ping An Fund include the Company Bond ETF, National Development Bond ETF, and National Debt ETF for 5 to 10 years, covering various durations to help investors navigate the bond market cycle [8]

两只债券ETF规模突破500亿元！ Wind数据显示，截至6月20日，海富通短融ETF、富国证金债ETF最新规模分别达509.58亿元、506.13亿元，成 为国内债券ETF中首批达到500亿元级别的ETF。 今年以来，债券ETF规模不断创新高。Wind数据显示，截至6月20日，债券ETF总规模达3508.69亿元，再创历 史新高。年内规模增长接近1800亿元，是各大类ETF中规模增长最多的品类。 业内人士表示，产品层面，债券ETF凭借流动性强、费率低、交易高效、结构透明等优势，正逐步取代传统债 基，成为资产配置中的重要工具。 两只债券ETF规模突破500亿元 从二级市场表现来看，截至6月20日，海富通短融ETF年内单位净值上涨0.74%；富国证金债ETF年内单位净值 上涨0.73%。 债券ETF规模突破3500亿元 除上述两只产品外，多只债券ETF年内规模迭创新高，13只债券ETF规模达"百亿级"，债券ETF市场整体规模 已突破3500亿元，再创历史新高。 具体来看，Wind数据显示，截至6月20日，债券ETF中已有13只规模超过100亿元，分别是海富通中证短融 ETF、富国中债7-10年政策性金融债ETF ...