习近平总书记指出："加快农业农村现代化步伐，推动农业基础更加稳固、农村地区更加繁荣、农民生活更加红火。" 2025年是"十四五"规划收官之年，也是巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接5年过渡期的最后一年，我国锚定农业农村优先发展目标，全方位夯实粮 食安全根基、牢牢守住不发生规模性返贫致贫底线，深入实施乡村建设行动，推动农业农村现代化迈出坚实步伐。 今年以来，习近平总书记深入各地考察，为农业农村现代化发展指明方向、擘画蓝图。围绕如何做强农业，习近平总书记强调"要加强耕地保护和建设，扛 牢粮食安全责任"；他指出，"要加强科技应用，推动农文旅融合，不断延伸产业链、增加附加值，带动更多农民群众增收致富"；围绕让农民就地过上现代 文明生活，习近平总书记要求，"坚持城乡融合发展，推进以县城为重要载体的新型城镇化建设，优化县乡村公共资源配置和产业链布局，扎实推进乡村全 面振兴。" 中国人民大学国家粮食安全战略研究院院长 程国强：习近平总书记就推进农业农村现代化作出了一系列的重要指示。为我国加快农业农村现代化，扎实推 进乡村全面振兴，明确了具体的实施路径。今年以来，农业农村呈现出许多趋势性的新变化。科技对农业生产的支撑作用 ...

Group 1 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes a pragmatic development approach, focusing on quality growth and domestic circulation while addressing current economic challenges [1][2] - The plan sets a growth target of around 5% for the period, aiming for per capita GDP to reach the level of moderately developed countries by 2035 [2][3] - It highlights the importance of balancing development and security, asserting that development is foundational for safety [2] Group 2 - The macroeconomic policy is shifting towards a more proactive stance, with an emphasis on counter-cyclical measures to stabilize growth, employment, and expectations [3] - The plan prioritizes the integration of technology and industry, aiming to build a modern industrial system with a focus on intelligent, green, and integrated development [4][5] - It identifies four key areas for promoting integration: artificial intelligence, industrial internet, new growth engines, and future industries [4] Group 3 - The plan stresses the need to boost domestic demand, particularly in service consumption, as a strategic foundation for economic growth [6][7] - It outlines systematic measures to enhance consumer capacity and expand service consumption through policy support and market reforms [7][8] - The focus on service consumption is crucial, as it currently lags behind goods consumption in GDP contribution [8] Group 4 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to promote comprehensive human development and improve social welfare, establishing a virtuous cycle between economic growth and social equity [9][10] - It includes specific targets for employment, income growth, and social security, emphasizing the importance of investing in human capital [9] - Policies will address key life cycle points, ensuring support for various demographics, including flexible workers and the elderly [10] Group 5 - The plan addresses urban-rural integration, focusing on reforms in the household registration system and land use to facilitate urbanization [11][12] - It aims to enhance public services for migrant populations and streamline land policies to support rural development [12] Group 6 - The establishment of a unified national market is seen as essential for enhancing domestic circulation, with measures to eliminate local protectionism and promote fair competition [13][14] - The plan outlines four policy focus areas: regulating government behavior, improving market order, streamlining logistics, and optimizing supporting systems [13] Group 7 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" adjusts the foreign trade strategy to emphasize autonomy, balance, and diversification in response to uncertainties in international relations [15][16] - It aims to shift from a focus on trade surpluses to promoting balanced trade, with an emphasis on expanding imports [15] Group 8 - The plan sets ambitious goals for green transformation, including a dual control system for carbon emissions to achieve peak carbon emissions by 2030 [17][18] - It emphasizes the need for a comprehensive approach to carbon management and green development, integrating market mechanisms to minimize economic disruption [18] Group 9 - Fiscal policy is framed to balance proactivity with sustainability, focusing on optimizing expenditure and reforming the revenue system [19] - The plan aims to enhance fiscal sustainability while addressing local government debt issues through structural reforms [19] Group 10 - The financial development strategy aims to build a financial powerhouse, focusing on optimizing financial structures, enhancing regulation, and expanding openness [20][21] - Key tasks include promoting various types of finance, improving direct financing, and strengthening risk management systems [20]

宏观研究 宏观快评 2025 年 12 月 08 日 华创证券研究所 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 等待"两大会"召开——政策周观察第 58 期 近一周，政策出台不多，主要有以下内容。短期内，关注中央政治局会议和中 央经济工作会议"两大会"召开。 1、12 月 1 日，《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《推进党的自我革命 要做到"五个进一步到位"》。文章中，习近平总书记指出"对党的自我革命认 识要进一步到位……我们党进行自我革命，刀刃向内、激浊扬清、刮骨疗毒， 非但不会影响党的形象和威信，反而能够提高党的形象和威信；非但不会挫伤 党员干部的积极性，反而能够更广泛更充分地调动党员干部的积极性；非但不 会影响经济社会发展，反而能够为高质量发展提供坚强政治保证"，"党员干部 增强党性要进一步到位"，"权力规范运行要进一步到位"，"从严监督执纪要进 一步到位"，"落实管党治党责任要进一步到位"。 2、资本市场：1）12 月 5 日，国家金融监管总局调整保险公司相关业务风险 因子，"针对保险公司投资的沪深 300 指数成分股、中证红利低波动 100 指数 成分股以及科创板股票的风险因子，根据持仓时间进行了差异 ...

央视网消息（新闻联播）：习近平总书记指出，加快农业农村现代化步伐，推动农业基础更加稳固、农 村地区更加繁荣、农民生活更加红火。 2025年，全国702个县整建制推进粮油等主要作物大面积单产提升行动。主要粮油作物中，玉米单产提 升尤为显著，从以往每亩3000多株提高到今年平均5000株左右，新疆部分地区甚至达到7000株以上。 2025年，农业生产更智慧。从选种、种植到田管，大数据模型逐步替代传统经验，辅助决策更加科学。 今年夏收期间，"云上调度"系统使农机分布与小麦成熟期精准匹配，大幅减少空驶与等待时间，助力全 国夏收提前2天完成。 2025年是"十四五"规划收官之年，也是巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接五年过渡期的最后一 年，我国锚定农业农村优先发展目标，全方位夯实粮食安全根基、牢牢守住不发生规模性返贫致贫底 线，深入实施乡村建设行动，推动农业农村现代化迈出坚实步伐。 这是来之不易的丰收。2025年，我国先后经受干旱、洪涝等极端天气的多重考验，夏粮稳产丰收，早稻 实现增产，全年粮食生产有望再迎丰收。目前，全国秋冬种已顺利结束，播种面积稳中有增，苗情长势 总体向好，为明年粮食丰收奠定了坚实基础。 这是气 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of boosting consumer spending as a key macroeconomic policy direction for 2026 and beyond, with specific policy spaces identified for short, medium, and long-term strategies [1][4][5] - Short-term policy measures include extending and expanding direct subsidies, consumer loan interest subsidies, and implementing paid staggered vacations to enhance consumer experience and demand [1][2][3] - Medium-term strategies focus on accelerating consumption tax reform, upgrading consumption infrastructure, leveraging new technologies for product and scene development, and promoting employment-friendly development [4][5] - Long-term perspectives involve improving income distribution systems, enhancing social security, and optimizing consumption through population growth and international demand activation [5][6] Group 2 - The article discusses the impact of the anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts on global markets, leading to a risk-on sentiment and a recovery in stock prices, particularly in technology and materials sectors [6][7][8] - Despite a mixed U.S. economic data landscape, market sentiment remains optimistic, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [7][15] - The article highlights the performance of various asset classes, noting a significant rise in copper prices and a stable demand for gold, while U.S. Treasury yields have shown volatility [9][10][12] Group 3 - The article outlines recent policy changes in housing provident fund regulations aimed at supporting housing consumption, including increased withdrawal limits and expanded usage scenarios [27][28][29] - It notes that various regions are implementing measures to optimize housing fund policies, aligning them with population policies and enhancing support for high-quality housing [27][28][29] - The article also mentions the broader context of economic recovery efforts, including the promotion of durable goods consumption and the integration of artificial intelligence in consumer sectors [35][36]

解决好"三农"问题一直以来是我们党各项工作的重中之重。纵观"十四五"发展历程，城乡融合在多地结 出实践硕果，乡村产业活力不断释放，农业功能从单一生产向生态涵养、休闲体验、文化传承等多元形 态拓展，一二三产业深度融合。通过强有力的政策引导和财政支持，农村基础设施和公共服务全面改 善，城乡差距不断缩小。例如，四川省蒲江县以农业优势为基础，围绕"智管"有措与"数智"兴农，推动 传统农业转型升级，助力农村电商提质增效，形成农业产业化数字化发展的"蒲江模式"。又如，吉林省 长吉接合片区作为国家城乡融合发展试验区，将传统农业与现代文旅相结合、生态资源与数字智慧相碰 撞，深度整合冰雪、温泉、生态与文化，打造"农业+"多元业态，在黑土地上铺开乡村全面振兴新画 卷。 也要清醒地看到，城乡融合发展仍面临一些挑战。比如，当前城乡之间生产要素自由流动尚存壁垒，劳 动力、资本和土地等传统要素存在一定程度的错配，数据等新型生产要素在农村尚未充分激活。县城的 枢纽作用发挥不足，对于乡村及县域的带动与辐射能力有限。城乡基本公共服务配置不够优，公共设 施、义务教育、医疗卫生、基本社会保障供给不均衡，在一定程度上阻滞城乡融合进程。未来，要因地 ...

党的二十届四中全会提出"推动城乡要素双向流动，激励各类人才下乡服务和创业就业"。近年来，城乡 要素改革深入推进，城乡之间要素流动出现新趋势，从以往由乡到城的单向流动为主转变为城乡要素双 向流动，对促进城乡融合发展具有重要意义。 "十四五"以来，我国全面深化户籍制度改革，加快破除人口进城的户籍障碍，城镇化率提升了3.1个百 分点，4100多万人口实现从乡村到城镇的迁移，提前两年完成预期目标。深入推进全域土地综合整治， 深化农村集体经营性建设用地入市试点，稳妥推进农村宅基地制度改革试点，促进城乡之间土地要素流 动的改革试点加快落地。财政金融等资金更多投向农业农村，中央财政衔接推进乡村振兴补助资金预计 达到8000多亿元，涉农贷款余额超50万亿元。建成了较为完备的农业科技创新体系，农业科技进步贡献 率超过63%，农作物耕种收综合机械化率达74%，农作物良种覆盖率达96%以上，农业科技创新整体迈 入世界第一方阵。 "十五五"时期，我们要深入贯彻落实党的二十届四中全会的战略部署，健全推动城乡要素双向流动的长 效机制，促进城乡融合发展，推动农业农村现代化建设。 畅通城乡之间人口双向流动的通道。加快完善农业转移人口市民化体 ...

省委农办秘书处处长、省缩小"三大差距"专班成员 方杰：很多成果都是全省性遍地开花，比如说县城中心镇发展 轴，这是我们一项创新性的工作，我们分两批已经建设了87条省级发展轴。我们想这些成果向更多的这些县市区 进行推开，能够更加深入，惠及更多的农民群众。 今天举行的全省以"千万工程"牵引城乡融合发展缩小"三大差距"现场推进会上，首次发布了十大标志性成果。各 地推出一系列创新举措，绘好"千万工程"新图景，惠及更多城乡群众。 今天发布的"缩差共富"十大标志性成果，是从征集到的90多个项目中遴选而来，依据创新性、可复制性等标 准，"县城—中心镇—重点村"发展轴建设、乡村片区组团发展、党建引领"共富工坊"建设等入选。 数据显示，全省已累计培育农创客10万名、现代"新农人"58.4万人；建成了单产超10亿元"土特产"全产业链136 条，其中有12条超百亿元，总产值达3420亿元。对此，金华代表深有感触，当地通过"众创文创"产业融合、返乡 创业"三赋能"等模式，打造土特产全产业链、吸引青年返乡。这里是金东区北山口村，216名返乡青年，开出了几 百个家庭直播间，让土生土长的佛手，变成了年产值超1.6亿元抢手货。 金华市金东区赤 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a people-centered new urbanization strategy in China, aiming to enhance urbanization quality and unleash the potential of urban-rural integration for economic growth [2][3]. Group 1: New Urbanization Strategy - The new urbanization strategy focuses on improving the quality of urbanization by prioritizing human needs, which is seen as a shift from infrastructure-centric development to a more holistic approach that considers the well-being of individuals [2][3]. - The strategy aims to address the structural issues in China's economy, particularly the shortcomings in domestic demand and consumption, by fostering vibrant urban markets [3][5]. Group 2: Historical Context and Evolution - Urbanization has been a key driver of China's economic rise since the reform and opening up, with significant government-led initiatives contributing to urban development [2][3]. - The article highlights the transition from a focus on physical infrastructure ("seeing things") to a focus on human experiences and community engagement ("seeing people") as a necessary evolution in urbanization thinking [3][4]. Group 3: Implementation Challenges - To effectively implement the people-centered urbanization, it is crucial to overcome the traditional reliance on infrastructure expansion and instead focus on community involvement and public decision-making [4][5]. - The article stresses the need for reforms in the household registration system to facilitate population mobility and address long-standing gaps in public services provided by local governments [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The new urbanization strategy is positioned as a critical component of China's broader economic and social policies, aiming to create a more inclusive and resilient urban environment that reflects the diverse needs of its residents [4][6]. - By prioritizing human-centered development, the strategy seeks to enhance the overall quality of life in cities, making them more attractive and livable for all [4][6].

央行公开市场继续净回笼，资金面稳中偏松，主要期限国债收益率多数上行 【内容摘要】12 月 3 日，央行公开市场继续净回笼，但资金面稳中偏松，主要回购利率低位 波动，债市窄幅震荡，利率债收益率多数上行，30 年超长债收益率上行超 3bps；万科多只债 券继续下跌；惠誉将万科、万科香港"CCC-"主体评级列入负面观察名单，下调万科香港票据 评级至"CC"；融侨集团公告子公司福建融装未能如期偿还 4000 万元光大银行债务，该笔银 行借款由融侨集团提供连带责任保证担保；转债市场主要指数随股市延续下行，个券多数下跌； 海外方面，美国 11 月 ADP 意外下滑，就业人数创 2023 年 3 月以来最大降幅，主要期限美债 收益率全线下行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率走势分化。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【李强主持国务院第十七次专题学习强调，充分释放城乡融合发展蕴藏的巨大内需潜力】12 月 3 日，国务院以"深入推进以人为本的新型城镇化，着力构建城乡融合发展新格局"为主 题，进行第十七次专题学习。国务院总理李强在主持学习时强调，要认真学习贯彻习近平总书 记和党中央关于深入实施新型城镇化战略的决策部署，坚持以人 ...