周期半月谈 - 年末年初周期板块供需前景展望 20251123 摘要 油气化工行业资本支出持续下降，2024 年降幅达 20%，2025 年前三 季度再降 10%，预示新增产能减少，有助于改善供需关系，行业自律会 议推动部分产品如有机硅、DMAC 价格上涨，吉林西安通过供应收缩和 装置检修稳定价格。 与锂电相关的 EC、DMC、DEC 等溶剂需求旺盛，价格分别上涨 47.8%、10%、5.1%，受益于供需紧张而非价格协同。华鲁拥有大量 DMAC 和 DGC、EMC 产能，有望受益于相关产品涨价。 煤炭市场明年需求预计平稳偏弱，受经济增速和风光发电替代影响，但 安监环保压力增大抑制产量。煤价中枢预计维持在 750-800 元/吨，稳 定中枢对煤炭公司是利好，长协结构基本不变，坑口煤定价或参照下水 煤方式，增强稳定性。 建材行业受地产下行影响，需求和价格不理想，预计明年新开工项目继 续下跌但跌幅收窄。涂料需求相对较好，玻纤受益于风电装机增长，钢 铁行业反内卷力度不足，减产目标执行存疑，水泥需求下降明显，需严 格执行限产政策并推动碳交易。 当前油气化工行业逐步进入季节性淡季，尽管今年春节较晚，但整体需求端在 房地产 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Bazhong Oil and Gas Development Conference was held on November 12, where key industry development opportunities and technology challenges were announced [1] - The oil and gas chemical industry development opportunity list includes 13 key projects with a total investment of approximately 13.15 billion yuan, all to be implemented in the Bazhong Zengkou-Jintang Chemical Park [1] - The oil and gas technology challenge list focuses on core exploration and development areas, addressing key fields such as reservoir identification, efficient extraction, and low-carbon utilization, comprising 12 items [1] Industry Developments - Bazhong has prioritized energy chemistry as its leading industry among five major sectors, aiming to create a 100 billion yuan-level energy chemical industry cluster [1] - A series of supportive measures have been introduced to facilitate oil and gas exploration, enterprise settlement, and project advancement, providing comprehensive and efficient services [1] Production Growth - In the first three quarters of this year, Bazhong's natural gas production reached 360 million cubic meters, representing a year-on-year increase of 71.4% [1] - Oil production in Bazhong reached 14,000 tons, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 600% [1]

Summary of the Oil and Chemical Industry Outlook for 2026 Industry Overview - The chemical industry has been in a downturn for over three years, with both the chemical price index and industry profit margins at low levels. The chemical product price index in China has decreased by 10.3% from early 2025 to the present, currently at the 10.6% percentile since 2012 [2][7] - The profit margin for chemical raw materials and products from January to August 2025 is at 4.14%, the lowest since 2017. The gross margin and net margin for petrochemical listed companies in Q2 2025 are 16.05% and 4.63%, respectively, also among the lowest in recent years [2][7] Capital Expenditure and Capacity Changes - Capital expenditures in the petrochemical sector have been declining, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.3% in 2024 and 15.1% in the first half of 2025. The industry has seen a continuous decline in capital expenditure for seven consecutive quarters since Q4 2023 [3][8] - Significant capacity exits are expected in Europe, with a total of 11 million tons of chemical capacity expected to be withdrawn from 2023 to October 2024. Companies like Westlake Chemical and Total have announced closures of their production facilities in Europe and Japan [3][8] Potential for Recovery - The industry is anticipated to reach a turning point in the capacity cycle due to favorable supply-side factors accumulating. The petrochemical industry is implementing measures to control major project constructions and prevent overcapacity risks in coal-based methanol production [3][8] - The outlook for the chemical sector is optimistic, with expectations of a reversal in the industry cycle. The basic chemical sector's price-to-book ratio is currently at 2.07x, within the 32.6% percentile since 2012, indicating potential for recovery [4][20] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights several investment opportunities in the chemical sector, particularly in leading companies with low valuations and significant profit growth expected in 2026. Key areas of interest include: 1. The fiber industry chain, such as PTA and polyester filament, and agricultural chains like pesticides and potassium fertilizers [4][20] 2. Emerging materials related to AI and robotics [4][20] Risks - Potential risks include a significant drop in oil prices, lower-than-expected economic growth, and rapid increases in industry investment growth [5] Conclusion - The oil and chemical industry is poised for a potential recovery after a prolonged downturn, with various factors indicating a turning point in the capacity cycle. Investors are encouraged to consider opportunities in undervalued companies and sectors expected to benefit from the upcoming changes in the market dynamics [4][20]

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong Province has made significant progress in developing its marine economy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, aiming to enhance its comprehensive strength and technological support in the marine sector, while promoting green development and optimizing the spatial layout of the marine economy [7][19][41]. Summary by Sections Marine Economic Development - Guangdong's marine production value is expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan in 2024, maintaining its position as the top province in the country for 30 consecutive years [19][20]. - The province has established 15 national-level marine ranch demonstration zones, leading the nation in the number of marine ranches, and ranks high in seafood production [21]. - The annual production capacity of offshore wind turbine manufacturing exceeds 1,000 units, with total installed offshore wind power capacity surpassing 12.5 million kilowatts [22]. Technological Advancements - Guangdong has built 2 national key laboratories, 3 provincial laboratories, and 49 provincial key laboratories in the marine field [24]. - The province is home to several national innovation platforms, including the National Marine Comprehensive Test Field and the National Deep Sea Scientific Research Center [25][26]. - Key marine technologies are being developed, including the world's first floating dynamic positioning net cage-type aquaculture vessel [27]. Open Marine Economy - Guangdong has hosted various marine economic expos and forums, enhancing cross-border marine cooperation [33][34]. - New cross-border shipping projects, such as the Zhuhai Gaolan Port container terminal and the Macau water passenger transport route, have been established [35]. Green Development Initiatives - The province is advancing marine ecological restoration projects, having restored over 200 kilometers of coastline by the end of 2024 [38]. - Guangdong has established 124 marine protected areas, covering 390,000 hectares, and is home to the world's first international mangrove center [39]. Spatial Optimization of Marine Economy - The province is enhancing the overall layout of its marine economy, supporting cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen in becoming marine innovation hubs [41][44]. - Efforts are being made to integrate land and sea economies, promoting participation from northern Guangdong in marine development [51].

Core Insights - The project marks the largest ongoing terminal upgrade in the Yangtze River basin, with full construction now underway following the successful piling of berth steel pipes [1] - The upgrade consolidates the existing four berths into three 5,000-ton and one 10,000-ton oil and gas chemical berths, with a designed annual throughput capacity of 3.496 million tons [1] - The new terminal will feature a floating dock design and will be equipped with intelligent and environmentally friendly facilities, establishing an integrated safety defense system for monitoring, early warning, and response [1] - Upon completion, the terminal will meet the raw material transfer needs of the Sino-Korean Petrochemical's one million-ton ethylene project, enhancing the smart management and environmental standards of the terminal area, thus supporting the green and high-quality development of the Yangtze Economic Belt [1]

Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic environment, policy signals, and various industry sectors including oil and gas, chemicals, construction materials, and transportation. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Policy Signals and Economic Outlook** - The discussion highlights the anticipation of new policy signals before identifying structural opportunities in the market. The recent easing of tariffs between the US and China is noted, although uncertainty remains regarding future negotiations [1][2][3]. 2. **Impact of Tariffs on Trade** - In April, the US collected approximately $1-2 billion in additional tariffs from China, which is insufficient to offset the fiscal risks posed by tax cuts. This indicates a potential expansion risk in the US fiscal situation [2]. 3. **Domestic Economic Conditions** - The domestic economy shows signs of slowing down, particularly in exports to the US, which have declined due to tariff tensions. There is a concern that the temporary boost in exports may not be sustainable [3][4]. 4. **Fiscal Policy and Debt Issuance** - The Chinese government has been proactive in fiscal policy, issuing a significant amount of debt to stimulate the economy. Approximately 2 trillion yuan of bonds were issued in the last quarter, with expectations for continued issuance [4][5][6]. 5. **Monetary Policy Outlook** - The potential for further monetary easing is discussed, especially as inflation indicators (CPI and PPI) are expected to decline. This could provide more room for liquidity support in the economy [7][8]. 6. **Oil and Gas Sector Analysis** - The oil and gas sector is experiencing a decline in capital expenditure, with a noted 18% drop in the previous year. Demand uncertainties, particularly due to US-China trade relations, are highlighted as a significant concern [10][11]. 7. **Construction Materials and Steel Industry** - The construction materials sector is entering a seasonal downturn, with prices under pressure. However, there are expectations for a rebound in demand as the market transitions from a slow to a peak season [24][26]. 8. **Transportation Sector Insights** - The shipping industry has seen a significant price increase, with container shipping rates doubling in the past month. However, a potential decline in demand is anticipated as the rush for shipping eases [31][32]. 9. **Investment Recommendations** - The call suggests focusing on companies with strong dividend yields and stable fundamentals, particularly in the construction materials and transportation sectors. Specific companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal are recommended for their strong dividend attributes [29][36]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Emerging Opportunities in New Materials** - Companies involved in domestic substitutes for new materials are highlighted as long-term investment opportunities [24]. 2. **Market Sentiment and Stock Performance** - The performance of small-cap stocks is noted, with fluctuations indicating a lack of strong market direction. However, some stocks have shown resilience and potential for recovery [24]. 3. **Global Economic Factors** - The call acknowledges ongoing global uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions and their potential impact on market dynamics, particularly in the commodities sector [19][20]. 4. **Sector-Specific Risks** - The chemical sector faces challenges due to demand uncertainties and potential overcapacity, which could hinder price recovery despite favorable cost conditions [11][12]. 5. **Future Monitoring of Policy Changes** - The need for ongoing observation of policy developments, particularly in fiscal and monetary areas, is emphasized as critical for future investment strategies [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - The Xifeng Industrial Park in Qingyang, Gansu Province, is actively promoting industrial development through various initiatives, including the establishment of industrial parks, attracting enterprises, and enhancing industrial chains to foster high-quality growth [1]. Group 1: Industrial Development Initiatives - The Qingyang Tongxin Petroleum Technology Co., Ltd. is constructing a 500,000-ton/year light hydrocarbon deep processing project, which is a key oil and gas industry extension project in the Xifeng Park, aimed at creating two "hundred billion" industrial chains [2]. - The Xifeng Park has attracted 47 enterprises, forming industrial clusters in petrochemicals, fine chemicals, intelligent equipment manufacturing, and food biomedicine [3]. Group 2: Digital Economy and Infrastructure - The Xifeng Park is seizing opportunities from the national "East Data West Computing" strategy, having established a digital economy investment team and engaged with nearly a thousand digital economy enterprises [4]. - By the end of 2024, the Qingyang data center cluster is expected to have six intelligent computing centers and over 31,000 racks, with computing power projected to exceed 50,000 P [4]. Group 3: Supporting Facilities and Services - The Xifeng Park has implemented a comprehensive infrastructure improvement plan, including the construction of 12 main roads and the establishment of water, gas, and electricity networks, enhancing the overall capacity for enterprise operations [6]. - The park's management is focused on implementing three key action plans for infrastructure construction, project attraction, and safety production, with 12 infrastructure projects and 15 enterprise projects planned for the year [6]. Group 4: Future Projections - By the end of 2024, the number of industrial enterprises in the Xifeng Park is expected to reach 552, with 39 of them being above-scale industrial enterprises, indicating a robust growth trajectory [7].

Core Points - The 20th China Western International Expo (West Expo) opened in Chengdu, Sichuan, on May 25, featuring a signing ceremony for investment projects in Suining [1] - A total of 8 industrial projects were signed, with a total investment amount of 20.33 billion yuan [1] - The projects cover various sectors including lithium battery new energy, oil and gas chemical, electronic information, food and beverage, and digital economy [1] Investment Environment - Suining promoted its investment environment during the event, highlighting opportunities in lithium battery new energy and electronic information industries [1] - Specific projects mentioned include low-altitude economy initiatives and the Guanyin Lake "Future Water World" project [1] Project Details - The signed projects include 8 industrial initiatives with a combined investment of 20.33 billion yuan, indicating strong interest in the region's economic development [1] - The sectors involved reflect a diverse range of industries, showcasing Suining's strategic focus on emerging technologies and sustainable development [1]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on several sectors, particularly in chemicals, aviation, and refrigerants, indicating potential investment opportunities in leading companies like Baofeng and Wanhua [3][8]. Core Insights - The chemical sector has been in a downward cycle for over three years, but a significant decline in capital expenditure is expected in 2025, which may stabilize demand due to supportive domestic policies [3][5][6]. - The refrigerant sector is performing well, with rising market prices and expected profit increases in the second quarter [9]. - The aviation sector shows signs of recovery, with improving ticket prices and demand expected to rise during holiday periods [13][14]. - Companies like Manbang and China Civil Aviation Information Network are highlighted for their strong performance and optimistic growth forecasts [15][17]. Summary by Sections Chemical Sector - The chemical sector has faced a prolonged downturn, but capital expenditure is expected to decrease significantly in 2025, leading to a potential end to rapid capacity growth [3][5]. - Domestic demand is stabilizing as the real estate market's drag diminishes, supported by policies aimed at boosting consumption [6]. - High upstream energy costs, particularly for crude oil, continue to pressure midstream chemical companies, but a potential adjustment in oil prices could present investment opportunities [7][8]. Refrigerant Sector - The refrigerant market has shown strong performance, with both market and long-term prices on the rise, leading to improved profits for companies in this sector [9]. Aviation Sector - Recent trends indicate a recovery in the aviation sector, with domestic ticket prices showing a narrowing decline and expected demand increases during holiday seasons [13]. - Boeing's limited capacity recovery continues to tighten global aircraft supply, benefiting the aircraft leasing industry [14]. Company Performance - Manbang's performance exceeded expectations, with projected compound profit growth of over 30% for 2025 and 2026, supported by strong online transaction capabilities [15][16]. - China Civil Aviation Information Network is expected to see optimistic growth in 2025, with a low valuation and potential for value appreciation [17][18]. Fiberglass Sector - The fiberglass industry is experiencing demand growth driven by wind power and consumer electronics, with leading companies maintaining strong pricing power [19][20]. Cement Sector - The cement sector shows signs of recovery with improved shipment rates and stable demand, particularly in southern markets, suggesting potential for price increases [21]. Glass Industry - The float glass industry faces challenges but is seeing marginal improvements in production and sales rates, with specific companies like Xinyi Glass highlighted for their competitive advantages [22]. Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals market, particularly copper and aluminum, is experiencing upward trends due to supply constraints and increasing demand, indicating a potential reversal in market conditions [26]. Titanium Industry - The titanium industry is poised for growth due to strong domestic demand and reduced import supply, with companies like Hunan Gold being recommended for investment [27]. Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to experience a downward trend in yields as monetary policy becomes more accommodative, indicating a favorable environment for bond investments [32].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the chemical and steel industries, with specific recommendations for companies like Wanhua and Hualu in the chemical sector, and Hualin Steel in the steel sector [3][18][23]. Core Insights - The fiscal policy has shifted to a more aggressive stance, with special government bonds increasing from 1 trillion to 1.3 trillion and local special bonds rising from 3.9 trillion to 4.4 trillion, which is expected to stimulate economic growth [3][4]. - The chemical industry is anticipated to see a recovery in demand due to supportive policies for equipment upgrades and consumer goods replacement, particularly benefiting sectors like automotive and home appliances [3][5]. - The steel industry is transitioning from a growth stabilization focus to supply-side reforms, with a projected reduction in crude steel production of approximately 50 million tons in 2025 [18][20]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry - Capital expenditures in the chemical sector have begun to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 18% reported in 2024, indicating a potential end to rapid capacity expansion by the second half of 2025 [7]. - Current valuations for leading chemical companies are low, with the CSI Chemical Index's price-to-book ratio at a 20% low since 2012, suggesting potential for significant performance recovery as market conditions improve [9]. - The refrigerant market is experiencing price increases due to supply constraints, with prices for certain products reaching 45,000 yuan per ton, supported by government policies promoting demand [10]. Steel Industry - The steel sector is expected to undergo significant production cuts, with a focus on reducing crude steel output by about 50 million tons in 2025, which is crucial for improving profitability in a currently low-margin environment [19][20]. - The report highlights that the steel industry is at a low point in terms of profitability and inventory levels, suggesting a high potential for recovery as production cuts are implemented [21]. - Recommended companies in the steel sector include Hualin Steel, Maanshan Steel, and Baosteel, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated supply-side reforms [18][23]. Logistics and Transportation - The government aims to reduce logistics costs through structural adjustments, promoting rail and water transport over road transport, which is expected to benefit companies in the logistics sector such as China Logistics and China Railway Special Cargo [24]. - The report emphasizes the importance of developing multi-modal transport systems to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, which will positively impact logistics companies [24]. Consumer and Tourism Sectors - The government's initiatives to boost consumer spending, particularly in tourism, are expected to benefit airlines and travel-related companies, with projected growth in passenger volumes for rail and air travel [25][26]. - Companies involved in the tourism and travel sectors, such as China Southern Airlines and Hainan Airport, are likely to see increased demand as consumer confidence improves [26].