周二（10月21日）亚洲时段，美元/日元延续前两个交易日涨势，重新站上151.00，最新美元兑日元汇 率报151.4300，涨幅0.46%，因美元在美国和中国贸易谈判前保持乐观。然而，交易员选择在日本议会 就新首相投票之前，对日元采取观望态度。 当地时间今日（21日）上午，日本政府召开内阁会议，石破内阁集体辞职。当地时间21日下午（北京时 间21日中午），日本国会众议院及参议院将举行首相指名选举。鉴于自民党与日本维新会已就联合执政 达成协议，且在野党方面没有形成统一的候选人，本月初接替石破茂出任自民党党首的高市早苗大概率 将出任日本新一任首相，并组建内阁。 高市早苗出任首相并组建联合政府，预示着日本将加倍下注于"安倍经济学"式的政策组合。这一前景在 中短期内对日元构成显著下行压力，为美元兑日元的上涨提供了动力，市场初期的乐观情绪（如日经指 数大涨）掩盖了深层结构性利空。 市场应关注其具体政策方案的出台，以及日本央行在政府压力下的应对，同时警惕汇率过度波动可能引 发的官方干预。 据知情人士透露，日本央行官员认为，尽管日本经济正朝着实现价格目标的方向前进，但下周没有迫切 需要提高基准利率。 知情人士说，随着经济和 ...

Core Points - The article discusses the election of Sanna Takichi as Japan's first female Prime Minister, highlighting her background and political stance [2][3][4] - Takichi aims to strengthen Japan's economy and has positioned herself as a successor to former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, promoting "Sanna Economics" based on Abe's policies [3][4] Group 1: Election and Background - Sanna Takichi won the first round of voting in the Japanese House of Representatives Prime Minister nomination election on October 21, becoming the first female president of the Liberal Democratic Party and the first female Prime Minister in Japan's history [2] - Takichi, born in 1961, comes from an ordinary family and has a history of being a "rebellious girl" during her school years [2] - She has held various significant cabinet positions over the past 32 years, including Minister of Economic Security and Minister of Internal Affairs [2] Group 2: Political Ideology and Actions - Takichi is known for her strong conservative stance and has proposed the establishment of a "National Intelligence Agency" to enhance information collection in diplomacy and security [3] - She has called for the introduction of advanced weaponry and an increase in defense spending, aligning with U.S. requests [3] - Takichi has a history of visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, which has drawn criticism for being perceived as too right-wing [4]

Market Overview - On October 20, the Japanese stock market experienced a significant surge, with the Nikkei 225 index rising over 1600 points, marking its first-ever breach of the 49000-point threshold, closing at 49185.5 points, a 3.37% increase from the previous trading day [2][4] - The rise in the stock market is attributed to the expected political stability following the anticipated victory of Fumio Kishida in the upcoming prime ministerial election, as the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party are set to sign a coalition agreement [1][4] Political Developments - The coalition agreement between the LDP and the Japan Innovation Party indicates that Fumio Kishida is likely to win the prime ministerial election on October 21, reducing political uncertainty in Japan [1][4] - Kishida is viewed as a proponent of "Abenomics," advocating for expansionary fiscal policies aimed at doubling Japan's economic size within ten years through tax cuts, economic stimulus, and government investment [5] Economic Policies - Kishida emphasizes the importance of demand-driven growth supported by rising wages and corporate profits, suggesting that current inflation is primarily due to rising raw material costs rather than domestic economic growth [5] - Analysts believe Kishida's victory may lead to a more accommodative monetary policy, potentially delaying interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) until the new government's policies are clearer [5][7] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector saw significant gains, with Kioxia Holdings rising nearly 9%, and other companies like LASERTEC and Tokyo Electron also experiencing substantial increases [4] - Financial stocks performed well, with Mizuho Financial Group up over 6%, and other banks like Chiba Bank and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group rising over 4% [4] Central Bank Insights - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that the decision on interest rate hikes will consider various data, including information gathered during his time in Washington [6] - Ueda noted that while global and U.S. economies show resilience, the impact of U.S. tariff policies on Japan's economy will be a critical factor in the BOJ's decision-making process [6][7] - Some BOJ policymakers have expressed the need to be cautious about rising prices and are prepared to raise the benchmark interest rate, with discussions around the timing of such a move being influenced by political uncertainties [8]

（原标题：高市早苗基本锁定胜局，"日元弱、日股强"交易卷土重来） （资料图） 据央视新闻报道，截至日本当地时间10月20日傍晚，日本自民党总裁高市早苗与日本维新会代表吉村洋 文在东京举行会谈，并签署了关于两党联合执政的协议文件。 基于此，外界预测，两党就联合执政签署协议后，高市早苗将在10月21日举行的国会首相指名选举中获 得维新会支持，大概率将出任日本首相并组建内阁。 引发关注的是，支持鸽派立场的高市早苗若当选首相，将对日本市场产生何种影响？ 20日，日经225指数开盘即上涨，盘中涨幅持续飙升，收盘突破49000点，收于历史最高位。东证指数同 样收高，收报2.46%，报3248.45点。 日股高开高走，日元却表现弱势。美元兑日元日内一度向上触及151，之后美元涨势回落。截至北京时 间晚上7点，日元兑美元汇率为1美元兑150.69日元。 中国国际问题研究院亚太所特聘研究员项昊宇向21世纪经济报道记者分析称，今天"日股涨、日元跌"的 市场表现是对日本政局形势明朗化的反应。他进一步表示，因为自民党与日本维新会达成联合执政共 识，高市早苗大概率当选日本首相，这一预期给市场吃下了一粒定心丸。此外，高市被视为 "安倍经 ...

日本政坛近日连续反转。在公明党退出联合政府后，据新华社报道，10月20日，自民党与日本主要在野 党之一的维新会即将签署联合执政协议，日本自民党总裁高市早苗的首相之路已基本铺平。 市场迅速重启"高市交易"，10月20日，日经225指数上涨3.47%，创历史新高，报49195.5点，日元对美 元汇率小幅下跌。 政治格局明朗 10月10日，在高市早苗上任自民党新任总裁一周后，自民党和公明党组成的执政联盟宣告破裂，这意味 着高市早苗通过国会指名选举当选首相的胜算减少。随后，自民党与日本维新会频繁就组建执政联盟进 行磋商。 高市早苗此前一直寻求与日本维新会的"阁内合作"，这意味着合作政党将向政府输送阁僚、副大臣以及 政务官等政务官员。以当前石破茂政府为例，公明党成员中野洋昌就担任了其内阁中的国土交通大臣一 职。日媒认为，"阁内合作"虽能让政党在政策制定中拥有更大影响力与决定权，但同时也承担着更大的 执政责任——合作政党的阁僚将在国会审议中成为在野党质询追责的焦点。 日本众议院和参议院官方网站数据显示，自民党当前在众议院共465个席位中拥有196席，维新会拥有35 席；自民党在参议院全部248个席位中拥有100席，维新会 ...

Market Performance - The Japanese stock market experienced a significant surge, with the Nikkei 225 index rising over 1600 points, marking a historic high by surpassing 49000 points, with a daily increase of over 3% [1][3] - As of the afternoon close, the Nikkei 225 index stood at 49185.5 points, reflecting a 3.37% increase from the previous trading day [3] Political Developments - The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party are set to sign a coalition agreement, indicating that Fumio Kishida is likely to win the prime ministerial election on October 21 [1][6] - Analysts suggest that the reduction of political uncertainty has positively impacted the Japanese stock market, with expectations that Kishida will implement low-interest rates and increased government spending [1][6] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector saw collective gains, with Kioxia Holdings rising nearly 9%, LASERTEC up over 5%, and Tokyo Electron increasing by over 4% [5] - Financial stocks also performed well, with Mizuho Financial Group rising over 6%, and Chiba Bank and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group both up over 4% [5] - Electrical machinery stocks showed strength, with Yaskawa Electric up over 7%, Fanuc increasing by over 6%, and Fuji Electric rising nearly 4% [5] Economic Policy Outlook - Kishida is viewed as a proponent of "Abenomics," advocating for expansionary fiscal policies aimed at doubling Japan's economic scale within ten years, which includes tax cuts, economic stimulus, and government investment [6] - Kishida emphasized the need for collaboration between the government and the central bank to ensure demand-driven growth supported by rising wages and corporate profits [6] Monetary Policy Implications - Market participants believe Kishida's victory may introduce uncertainty regarding monetary policy, potentially delaying interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan until new government policies are clearer [7] - The Bank of Japan Governor has indicated that various data will be considered before deciding on interest rate changes, emphasizing the importance of global economic conditions [9][10]

日本股市再创新高！ 今日（10月20日），日本股市高开高走，日经225指数大涨超1600点，史上首次突破49000点，日内涨幅超过3%。 据媒体报道，日本自民党与维新会今日将签署联合执政协议，这意味着高市早苗已基本确定将在21日的首相指名选举中胜出。分析人士指出，政治不确定性的消 退，提振了日本股市。市场预计，高市早苗将推动实施低利率和增加政府支出等市场支持政策。 日本股市暴涨超16 00点 今日，亚太股市集体上涨。其中，日本股市走势强劲，日经225指数上涨超1600点并首次突破49000点关口，再创历史新高。 截至下午收盘，日经225指数报49185.5点，较前一交易日上涨1603点，涨幅达到3.37%。个股方面，软银集团大涨超8%，股价再创历史新高，总市值突破36万亿日 元。 | 日经225 L | | --- | | N225 | | んO1QE EO 今井 48332.71 最高 49185.50 最低 48254.83 | | 金额 振幅 1.96% 337% 160335 芯里 | | 昨收 47582.15 52周高 49185.50 52周低 30792.74 | | 相关基金 日经225ET ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese political landscape is shifting towards the potential election of Sanna Takichi as Japan's first female Prime Minister, following a coalition agreement between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) [1][3] Group 1: Political Developments - The LDP and JIP are set to formalize a coalition agreement on October 20, 2025, which is expected to secure Takichi's position as Prime Minister [1] - The coalition will have a combined total of 231 seats in the House of Representatives, just two short of a majority, but the divided opposition is likely to facilitate Takichi's election [1][3] - Takichi, a conservative nationalist, is closely aligned with former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's policies, which has led to market speculation about the revival of "Abenomics" [1][4] Group 2: Market Reactions - The "Sanna Trade" has emerged in global markets, characterized by significant volatility in stocks, bonds, and currencies following Takichi's anticipated victory [2] - The Nikkei 225 index surged by 3% to reach a historical high, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 25% [2] - Market expectations are centered around a return to "Abenomics," which emphasizes aggressive fiscal stimulus and a cautious stance on monetary tightening, benefiting sectors like technology, energy, and defense [2] Group 3: Policy Implications - The JIP has outlined three core demands for the coalition: temporary reduction of the food consumption tax, tightening political funding regulations, and reducing the number of lawmakers [3] - Takichi's economic policies are expected to focus on government spending to stimulate growth, while her conservative stance on social issues remains firm [3][4] - There is a consensus between the LDP and JIP on enhancing Japan's security and economic resilience, including support for the Japan-U.S. security alliance and the expansion of nuclear energy post-Fukushima [4]

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate is trading around 151, reflecting a bullish trend with an increase of approximately 0.26%, influenced by developments in Japanese politics and rising U.S. Treasury yields [1] - Reports indicate that the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is set to lead a new coalition government, but the likelihood of returning to "Abenomics" under the new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, has diminished due to significant concessions to coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party [1] - Analysts from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia suggest that political uncertainty in Japan appears to be resolved, with a high probability of a coalition government being confirmed, which could provide relative stability in the House of Representatives [1] Group 2 - From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY has rebounded strongly from a key level of 149.39, but faces significant resistance ahead [2] - Important technical levels to watch include 151.33, which is the daily conversion line, and a large amount of options expiring today in the 151.00-10 range, potentially limiting the upside for USD/JPY in the short term [2]

10月14日，日本股市在连休后迎来一波剧烈抛售。截至收盘，日经225指数收跌2.58%，报46847.32点。 日本政坛地震正在迅速侵蚀市场此前热烈鼓吹的"高市交易"。 政治地震 上周五(10日)，自民党的执政联盟伙伴公明党突然宣布退出已持续26年的执政联盟，双方因政治献金监 管改革分歧而决裂。 据《环球时报》报道，立宪民主党党首野田佳彦正协调与国民民主党党首玉木雄一郎、日本维新会共同 代表藤田文武举行会谈，希望在首相指名选举中，推出在野党的统一候选人。眼下，玉木雄一郎已成为 热门人选。 自民党在更具权力的众议院拥有196个席位，位居第一大党团。在与自民党"分手"后，拥有24席的公明 党已公开表态，不会在首相选举中支持高市早苗。如果在野的立宪民主党(148席)、国民民主党(27席)和 日本维新会(35席)统一推出候选人，三党就能凑到210席，高出自民党现有席位数量。 这意味着，只要自民党以外的其他政党不支持高市早苗，这一席位数足以确保新候选人的首相职位。 玉木雄一郎上周在社交媒体上发文表示，"我已下定决心成为首相。" 若其成功当选，这将是自2009年以来自民党首次被赶下执政地位。 不过，有分析指出，尽管立宪民 ...