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钢材产业期现日报-20251023
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 01:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report Steel Industry - Steel prices are difficult to decline in resonance considering the strong coal prices. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis. One can consider a long - carbon and short - iron arbitrage, such as going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar will continue to converge, and steel mill profits will continue to converge before the clearance of steel production and inventory [2] Ore Industry - The iron ore market is shifting from a balanced and tight state to a more relaxed one. Affected by the weak performance of finished steel, it is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis, with a reference range of 750 - 800. An arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore is recommended [5] Coke Industry - Coke futures showed an oscillating upward trend. The second - round price increase by mainstream coking enterprises is in progress. Due to factors such as tight coking coal supply and weak downstream demand, the price increase is not going smoothly. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low levels, with a reference range of 1650 - 1770, and consider a long - coking - coal and short - coke arbitrage [8] Coking Coal Industry - Coking coal futures showed an oscillating upward trend. The spot market is on an upward trend. Due to production cuts in some mines and a decline in Mongolian coal imports, supply is tight. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low levels, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300, and consider a long - coking - coal and short - coke arbitrage [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally increased. For example, rebar 01 contract increased by 21 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil 01 contract increased by 28 yuan/ton [2] Cost and Profit - Steel billet price increased by 10 yuan/ton, while some steel production costs decreased. Profits of various steel products generally decreased, with the East China hot - rolled coil profit decreasing by 6 yuan/ton [2] Supply - Daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.6 tons, a decline of 0.3%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 6.4 tons, a decline of 0.7%. Among them, rebar output decreased by 2.2 tons, a decline of 1.1%, and hot - rolled coil output decreased by 1.5 tons, a decline of 0.4% [2] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 18.5 tons, a decline of 1.2%. Rebar inventory decreased by 18.6 tons, a decline of 2.8%, while hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 6.3 tons, an increase of 1.5% [2] Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume increased by 0.6, an increase of 6.3%. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 124.0 tons, an increase of 16.5%. The apparent demand of rebar increased by 66.6 tons, an increase of 43.5%, and that of hot - rolled coils increased by 20.5 tons, an increase of 7.0% [2] Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The inventory cost of various iron ore powders increased slightly, and the basis of some varieties changed. For example, the basis of 01 contract for Jinbuba powder increased by 5.2 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.1% [6] Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders in Rizhao Port increased slightly, with the Jinbuba powder increasing by 9.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.2% [6] Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 526.4 tons, a decline of 17.3%, while the global weekly shipping volume increased by 126.0 tons, an increase of 3.9% [6] Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6 tons, a decline of 0.2%. The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 20.7 tons, a decline of 6.1% [6] Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 90.6 tons, an increase of 0.6%, while the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 63.5 tons, a decline of 0.7% [6] Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke futures prices increased, with the 01 contract increasing by 38 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.2%. The basis of some contracts decreased, and the spread between 01 and 05 contracts changed slightly [8] Supply - The weekly output of coke decreased, with the daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreasing by 0.8 tons, a decline of 1.3% [8] Demand - The weekly pig iron output decreased, with the pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreasing by 0.6 tons, a decline of 0.2% [8] Inventory Changes - Coke inventory decreased overall, with the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreasing by 6.6 tons, a decline of 10.3%, and that of 247 steel mills decreasing by 11.4 tons, a decline of 1.7% [8] Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap decreased, with a decrease of 1.0 tons [8] Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal futures prices increased, with the 01 contract increasing by 33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.8%. The basis of some contracts decreased, and the spread between 01 and 05 contracts changed slightly [8] Supply - The weekly output of coking coal decreased. Due to safety reasons and other factors, production in some mines decreased significantly. The output of raw coal decreased by 18.2 tons, and the output of clean coal decreased by 11.8 tons [8] Demand - The demand for coking coal is mainly reflected in the coke production, which decreased slightly. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.8 tons, a decline of 1.3% [8] Inventory Changes - Coking coal inventory decreased in some parts and increased in others. The clean coal inventory of Fenwei mines decreased by 11.0 tons, a decline of 9.9%, while the inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 38.3 tons, an increase of 4.0% [8]
有色套利早报-20251022
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 01:27
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Report's Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on October 22, 2025 [1][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 22, 2025, the domestic spot price was 85720, the LME spot price was 10639, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.09. The domestic three - month price was 85350, and the LME three - month price was 10670 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 21950, the LME spot price was 3278, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.50 with a loss of 5922.81. The domestic three - month price was 22000, and the LME three - month price was 2979 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20970, the LME spot price was 2771, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.37 with a loss of 2234.72. The domestic three - month price was 20975, and the LME three - month price was 2770 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 123950, the LME spot price was 15009, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.19 with a loss of 1173.88 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16975, the LME spot price was 1947, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.83 with a loss of 181.73. The domestic three - month price was 17155, and the LME three - month price was 1987 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 22, 2025, the spreads between the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were 20, - 30, - 60, - 60 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 529, 956, 1392, 1828 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 115, 145, 180, 220, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 331, 449, 567 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 75, 85, 95, 95, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 332, 448, 565 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 95, 95, 100, 160, and the theoretical spreads were 210, 317, 423, 529 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 670, 820, 950, 1230 [4] - **Tin**: The spread between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts was - 150, and the theoretical spread was 5818 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 325 and - 305 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 398 and 874 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 95 and 20, and the theoretical spreads were 153 and 299 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 85 and 180, and the theoretical spreads were 175 and 289 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On October 22, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.88, 4.07, 4.98, 0.95, 1.22, 0.78 respectively, and in London (three - continuous) were 3.54, 3.81, 5.32, 0.93, 1.40, 0.67 [5]
“数”看期货:近一周卖方策略一致观点-20251021
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-10-21 08:14
Group 1: Stock Index Futures Market Overview - The main performance of the four major index futures contracts showed a decline, with the CSI 500 index futures experiencing the largest drop of -5.32%, while the SSE 50 index futures had the smallest decline of -0.32% [3][11] - Average trading volumes for the current, next, and seasonal contracts of IC, IF, and IH increased, with IH showing the largest increase of 23.91% [3][11] - As of last Friday's close, the annualized basis rates for the current contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH were -3.60%, -12.20%, -12.83%, and -0.90% respectively, indicating a deepening of the basis for IF and IC, while IH shifted from premium to discount [3][11] Group 2: Cross-Period Price Differences - The cross-period price difference rates for the current contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH were at the 92.30%, 97.70%, 92.80%, and 85.30% percentiles since 2019 [4][12] - Currently, there are no arbitrage opportunities for the main IF contract and the next month contract based on the closing prices [4][12] - The estimated impact of dividends on the CSI 300, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices over the next year is projected to be 76.75, 82.44, 68.62, and 63.50 points respectively [4][12] Group 3: Recent Sell-Side Strategy Insights - Seven brokerages are optimistic about the A-share market outlook, while six believe that policy expectations and liquidity easing will support the market [5][49] - There is a consensus among brokerages regarding the AI industry chain, non-ferrous metals, deep technology, green transformation, modern services, and high-dividend assets [5][49] - Divergence exists among brokerages regarding market trends, with some expecting a stable or slow bull market while others anticipate short-term adjustments [5][52]
有色套利早报-20251021
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 01:14
Report Overview - The report is a colored arbitrage morning report by the colored team of the research center on October 21, 2025, covering cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking for multiple metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, nickel, and tin [1][2][4] Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking Copper - The domestic spot price is 85,650, the LME spot price is 10,656; the domestic March price is 85,360, the LME March price is 10,680, with a ratio of 8.04. The spot import profit is - 888.92 [1] Zinc - The domestic spot price is 21,870, the LME spot price is 3,178, with a ratio of 6.88; the domestic March price is 21,880, the LME March price is 2,948, with a ratio of 5.80. The spot import profit is - 5,169.01 [1] Aluminum - The domestic spot price is 20,930, the LME spot price is 2,782, with a ratio of 7.52; the domestic March price is 20,920, the LME March price is 2,777, with a ratio of 7.54 [1] Lead - The domestic spot price is 16,900, the LME spot price is 1,935, with a ratio of 8.75; the domestic March price is 17,100, the LME March price is 1,977, with a ratio of 11.08 [3] Nickel - The domestic spot price is 123,550, the LME spot price is 14,935, with a ratio of 8.27. The spot import profit is - 1,445.62 [1] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking Copper - The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 990, 970, 900, 890 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 524, 946, 1377, 1808 [4] Zinc - The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 35, 65, 90, 130 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 212, 330, 448, 566 [4] Aluminum - The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 25, 35, 40, 45 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 215, 332, 448, 565 [4] Lead - The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 15, 25, 60, 100 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 210, 317, 423, 530 [4] Nickel - The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 300, - 60, 180, 380 respectively [4] Tin - The 5 - 1 spread is - 460, and the theoretical spread is 5791 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking Copper - The spreads of the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot are - 1215 and - 225 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 279 and 897 [4] Zinc - The spreads of the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot are - 55 and - 20 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 169 and 296 [4] Lead - The spreads of the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot are 175 and 190 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 192 and 305 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - For copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc, the Shanghai (three - continuous) ratios are 3.90, 4.08, 4.99, 0.96, 1.22, 0.78 respectively, and the London (three - continuous) ratios are 3.60, 3.87, 5.37, 0.93, 1.39, 0.67 respectively [5]
有色套利早报-20251020
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-20 02:12
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on October 20, 2025 [1][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 20, 2025, the domestic spot price was 84775, the LME spot price was 10506, and the spot price ratio was 8.10; the domestic three - month price was 84350, the LME three - month price was 10523, and the three - month price ratio was 8.05 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 21860, the LME spot price was 3084, and the spot price ratio was 7.09; the domestic three - month price was 21870, the LME three - month price was 2948, and the three - month price ratio was 5.78 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20950, the LME spot price was 2791, and the spot price ratio was 7.50; the domestic three - month price was 20920, the LME three - month price was 2778, and the three - month price ratio was 7.55 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 123700, the LME spot price was 14983, and the spot price ratio was 8.26. The profit from spot import was - 1658.10 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16825, the LME spot price was 1930, and the spot price ratio was 8.76; the domestic three - month price was 17090, the LME three - month price was 1972, and the three - month price ratio was 11.10 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract were - 660, - 700, - 800, and - 880 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 527, 953, 1387, and 1821 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 110, - 70, - 35, and 10 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 331, 450, and 569 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 65, - 55, - 50, and - 40 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 216, 333, 450, and 567 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 10, - 10, - 10, and 20 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 211, 317, 424, and 530 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 60, 240, 490, and 780 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was - 390, and the theoretical spread was 5818 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were 300 and - 360 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 546 and 918 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 80 and - 30 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 191 and 307 [5] - **Lead**: The spreads were 275 and 265 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 217 and 330 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On October 20, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (triple - continuous) were 3.86, 4.03, 4.94, 0.96, 1.22, and 0.78 respectively; for London (triple - continuous), they were 3.60, 3.82, 5.38, 0.94, 1.41, and 0.67 respectively [5]
有色套利早报-20251017
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 01:56
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and lead on October 17, 2025 [1][4][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 17, 2025, the domestic spot price was 85,180, the LME price was 10,617, and the ratio was 8.07; the domestic three - month price was 85,010, the LME price was 10,628, and the ratio was 8.03 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 21,920, the LME price was 3,093, and the ratio was 7.09; the domestic three - month price was 22,005, the LME price was 2,956, and the ratio was 5.79 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,950, the LME price was 2,781, and the ratio was 7.53; the domestic three - month price was 20,995, the LME price was 2,763, and the ratio was 7.58 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 123,600, the LME price was 15,034, and the ratio was 8.22, with a spot import profit of - 1,568.23 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,900, the LME price was 1,943, and the ratio was 8.72; the domestic three - month price was 17,135, the LME price was 1,988, and the ratio was 11.05 [3] Cross - period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 17, 2025, the spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract were - 580, - 640, - 750, and - 800 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 530, 959, 1396, and 1833 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 20, 60, 85, and 120 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 331, 450, and 569 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 140, 140, 140, and 145 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 332, 448, and 564 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 70, - 65, - 55, and - 15 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 211, 318, 425, and 532 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 410, 650, 890, and 1170 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was - 270, and the theoretical spread was 5,827 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were 495 and - 85 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 592 and 978 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 25 and 45 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 195 and 323 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 300 and 230 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 225 and 338 [5] Cross - variety Arbitrage Tracking - On October 17, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in the Shanghai market (three - continuous) were 3.86, 4.05, 4.96, 0.95, 1.23, and 0.78 respectively; in the London market (three - continuous), they were 3.58, 3.80, 5.39, 0.94, 1.42, and 0.66 respectively [5]
有色套利早报-20251016
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 01:53
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on October 16, 2025 [1][4][5] Summary by Category Cross - Market Arbitrage - **Copper**: On October 16, 2025, the domestic spot price was 85250, the LME spot price was 10745, with a spot ratio of 7.86; the domestic three - month price was 85850, the LME three - month price was 10717, with a ratio of 7.97; the spot import profit was - 1521.41 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22010, the LME spot price was 3076, with a spot ratio of 7.16; the domestic three - month price was 22040, the LME three - month price was 2936, with a ratio of 5.83 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20920, the LME spot price was 2764, with a spot ratio of 7.57; the domestic three - month price was 20935, the LME three - month price was 2757, with a ratio of 7.59 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 123550, the LME spot price was 15044, with a spot ratio of 8.21; the spot import profit was - 1281.18 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16900, the LME spot price was 1946, with a spot ratio of 8.68; the domestic three - month price was 17130, the LME three - month price was 1991, with a ratio of 11.08 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage - **Copper**: The spreads between the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were 1400, 1450, 1390, and 1250 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 524, 946, 1377, and 1808 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 185, - 160, - 125, and - 100, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 334, 454, and 574 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 70, 95, 105, and 100, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 331, 448, and 564 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 60, 80, 85, and - 110, and the theoretical spreads were 210, 317, 423, and 529 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 690, 840, 1060, and 1330 [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was - 240, and the theoretical spread was 5832 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 815 and 585, and the theoretical spreads were 415 and 1091 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 190 and 5, and the theoretical spreads were 194 and 323 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 150 and 210, and the theoretical spreads were 207 and 320 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage - On October 16, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.90, 4.10, 5.01, 0.95, 1.22, and 0.78 respectively; for London (three - continuous) were 3.60, 3.85, 5.33, 0.93, 1.38, and 0.68 [5]
有色套利早报-20251015
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-15 01:24
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core View - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals such as copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, nickel, and tin on October 15, 2025 [1][4] Summary by Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Domestic spot price is 85,925, March price is 84,380, LME March price is 10,527, and the March price ratio is 8.18 [1] - **Zinc**: Domestic spot price is 22,210, March price is 22,255, LME March price is 2,978, and the March price ratio is 5.73 [1] - **Aluminum**: Domestic spot price is 20,890, March price is 20,875, LME March price is 2,736, and the March price ratio is 7.65 [1] - **Lead**: Domestic spot price is 16,850, March price is 17,060, LME March price is 1,981, and the March price ratio is 11.25 [1][3] - **Nickel**: Domestic spot price is 123,150, and the profit of spot import is - 1,256.48 [1] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month are - 590, - 620, - 710, and - 760 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 527, 952, 1386, and 1820 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month are 15, 50, 80, and 100 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 214, 334, 454, and 574 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month are - 5, 10, 15, and 5 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 215, 332, 448, and 564 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month are - 50, - 40, - 40, and 5 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 211, 317, 424, and 530 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month are - 320, - 160, 60, and 280 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is - 540, with a theoretical spread of 5808 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot are - 960 and - 1550 respectively, with theoretical spreads of - 51 and 338 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot are - 5 and 10 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 71 and 201 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads of the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot are 250 and 200 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 113 and 225 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) are 3.79, 4.04, 4.95, 0.94, 1.22, and 0.77 respectively [5]
有色套利早报-20251014
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-14 01:09
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The report provides cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, nickel, and tin on October 14, 2025, to help investors find potential arbitrage opportunities. 3. Summary by Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Domestic spot price is 85010, three - month price is 85120, LME three - month price is 10599, and the ratio is 8.02 [1]. - **Zinc**: Domestic spot price is 22200, three - month price is 22290, LME three - month price is 3014, and the ratio is 5.69 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic spot price is 20800, three - month price is 20890, LME three - month price is 2755, and the ratio is 7.57 [1]. - **Nickel**: Domestic spot price is 123600, and the profit of spot import is - 1256.48 [1]. - **Lead**: Domestic spot price is 16925, three - month price is 17110, LME three - month price is 2007, and the ratio is 11.09 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between different months and the spot month are 120, 120, 80, 90 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 527, 952, 1386, 1820 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads are 50, 85, 115, 135 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 214, 334, 454, 574 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads are 20, 25, 25, 30 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 215, 332, 448, 564 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads are - 5, 10, 5, 25 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 211, 317, 424, 530 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads are 260, 430, 700, 880 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 80, and the theoretical spread is 5841 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts minus the spot are - 10 and 110 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 98 and 585 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads are 5 and 55 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 82 and 211 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads are 175 and 170 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 105 and 218 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) are 3.82, 4.07, 4.97, 0.94, 1.22, 0.77 respectively [5].
有色套利早报-20251013
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 02:19
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on October 13, 2025, including prices, ratios, spreads, and profit data [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 13, 2025, the domestic spot price was 86,550, the LME price was 10,706, and the ratio was 8.11. The profit from spot import was - 947.78 [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,310, the LME price was 3,104, and the ratio was 7.19. The profit from spot import was - 4,175.73 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,990, the LME price was 2,780, and the ratio was 7.55. The profit from spot import was - 2,342.57 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 124,900, the LME price was 15,131, and the ratio was 8.25. The profit from spot import was - 1,256.48 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,925, the LME price was 1,988, and the ratio was 8.51. The profit from spot import was - 642.27 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were - 820, - 820, - 790, and - 850 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 536, 969, 1412, and 1855 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 10, 20, 50, and 65, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 335, 455, and 576 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 120, - 105, - 105, and - 130, and the theoretical spreads were 217, 334, 452, and 569 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 40, 50, 65, and 35, and the theoretical spreads were 211, 317, 424, and 530 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 2080, - 1890, - 1700, and - 1550 [4]. - **Tin**: The spread for 5 - 1 was - 150, and the theoretical spread was 5921 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were 75 and - 745, and the theoretical spreads were 174 and 533 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 30 and - 40, and the theoretical spreads were 81 and 211 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 175 and 215, and the theoretical spreads were 117 and 230 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On October 13, 2025, for the cross - variety ratios: copper/zinc (Shanghai: 3.85, London: 3.50), copper/aluminum (Shanghai: 4.09, London: 3.83), copper/lead (Shanghai: 5.01, London: 5.21), aluminum/zinc (Shanghai: 0.94, London: 0.92), aluminum/lead (Shanghai: 1.22, London: 1.36), lead/zinc (Shanghai: 0.77, London: 0.67) [5].