投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-06-03 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 合成胶（BR） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着宏观因子逐渐消化，胶市交投逻辑开始 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the impact of the US debt crisis and tariff shocks, suggesting a focus on investment opportunities in the gold sector [12]. - Steel prices are experiencing a significant decline, with the overall price index dropping by 1.90% [37]. - The supply and prices of new energy metals are both on the decline, indicating potential challenges in this sector [41]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The US debt crisis and tariff shocks are leading to a focus on gold investment opportunities, with expectations of continued high gold prices due to market conditions [12]. - Steel consumption has slightly increased, but overall prices are down, with rebar prices falling to 3217 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.94% [13][37]. 2. Steel Industry - Steel consumption for rebar reached 2.49 million tons, a slight increase of 0.63% week-on-week [17]. - Total steel inventory has decreased significantly, with a total inventory of 933 thousand tons, down 2.92% week-on-week [25]. - The profitability of long and short process rebar steel shows divergence, with long process profitability slightly increasing while short process profitability decreased [32]. 3. New Energy Metals - Lithium production in April 2025 was 70,640 tons, a year-on-year increase of 40.38%, but a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.87% [41]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 61,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 3.17% [50]. 4. Industrial Metals - Copper smelting fees (TC) have slightly increased, with the current fee at -43.50 USD/thousand tons, up 1.69% week-on-week [61]. - The overall production costs for electrolytic aluminum have shown mixed trends, with costs in Xinjiang decreasing by 3.79% [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil market is expected to run weakly. In the short - term (within a week), mid - term (two weeks to one month), and intraday, the crude oil 2507 contract shows an oscillating trend, with an intraday weak - oscillating tendency. The overall view is a weak operation due to increased supply expectations [1][5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Morning Meeting Summary - For the crude oil 2507 contract, the short - term view is oscillating, the mid - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. The reference view is a weak operation, and the core logic is that the expected increase in supply leads to the weak - oscillating trend of crude oil [1] 3.2 Price Quotes and Driving Logic of Major Varieties - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is weakly oscillating, and the mid - term view is oscillating, with a reference view of weak operation. As the US debt crisis approaches in June, the "gray rhino" effect may trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating production increases, with a general market expectation of an additional 411,000 barrels per day in July. Based on the current monthly increase rate, combined with the previous increase in daily production targets in April, May, and June by about 1 million barrels, the remaining 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts may be completely cancelled by the end of October. Under increasing supply pressure, the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract showed a weak downward trend on Thursday night, with the futures price dropping 1.97% to 452.5 yuan per barrel. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures price on Friday may maintain a weakly oscillating trend [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of the crude oil 2507 contract are mainly volatile, with an intraday weak - volatile trend, and the overall reference view is a weak operation [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price and Market Performance - On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract slightly rose 0.84% to 457.4 yuan/barrel [5] 3.2 Core Logic - As the US debt crisis approaches in June, the "gray rhino" effect may trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating the pace of production increase, and the market generally expects an additional increase of 411,000 barrels per day in July. Based on the current monthly increase rate, it may completely cancel the remaining 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts by the end of October, increasing supply pressure [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The overall view of the rubber and synthetic rubber markets is that they are likely to operate weakly in the short - term and remain volatile in the medium - term. Specifically, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract and the synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract are expected to maintain a weakly volatile trend on Thursday [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weakly volatile. The reference view is weakly operating [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: As macro factors are gradually digested, the trading logic of the rubber market turns to the supply - demand fundamentals. With the full - scale tapping in domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas, raw material output is steadily increasing and new rubber supply is rising. Meanwhile, the operating rate of the downstream tire industry is gradually returning to normal, and procurement demand is expected to increase. On Wednesday night, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures fell 1.95% to 13,795 yuan/ton, continuing the downward trend [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weakly volatile. The reference view is weakly operating [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: As macro factors are gradually digested, the trading logic of the synthetic rubber market turns to the supply - demand fundamentals. The approaching US debt crisis in June may trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating the production increase, and crude oil demand is expected to be weak. Recently, the supply of synthetic rubber is expected to increase, and the utilization rate of device capacity is rising. Although the 2507 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures slightly rose 0.18% to 11,350 yuan/ton on Wednesday night, it is expected to maintain a weakly volatile trend on Thursday [7].

当地时间5月9日，美财长贝森特曾就美债问题发出警告，他们现在对美债采取的"非常规手段"，最多撑到8月，之后就可能使政府的现金耗尽，最终不仅会 出现债务违约，也就是政府还不上款，而且还会使政府出现停摆的可能。贝森特一再强调，国会必须在7月时就解决债务上限问题，但这又意味着共和党必 须和民主党协商，那么就有可能妨碍特朗普的一些政策推行。可以说在美债问题上，特朗普已经走入了一个进退两难的境地。 美元（资料图） 中国选择在这个时候减持美债，显然不是心血来潮的决定。要知道，在国际金融市场上，每一个重大决策背后都暗藏玄机。这一手"金融闪电战"，恐怕是中 国早就计划好的战略性调整。毕竟，在当前全球经济形势下，把所有鸡蛋都放在一个篮子里可不是明智之举。而且，随着人民币国际化进程的加快，中国手 中的牌明显更多了。最近的一场汇聚了13个国家的重要会议上，人民币作为融资工具的地位就得到了进一步的认可。这意味着，中国在全球金融市场上的话 语权正在稳步提升。 很多外媒嘴上不服气，说什么"这不算啥，中国不过是调整投资结构"，但华尔街却是另一副模样——资本市场早已风声鹤唳。美债收益率的波动，美元指数 的震荡，哪一个不是"多米诺骨牌"的前兆 ...

Group 1 - The current U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 120% [1] - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, indicating concerns over fiscal sustainability [1] - The U.S. fiscal deficit reached $1.147 trillion in the first five months of fiscal 2025, a 38% year-on-year increase, with interest payments rising 10% to $478 billion [1] Group 2 - Short-term predictions for 30-year U.S. Treasury yields are expected to remain between 5% and 5.5%, while 10-year yields are projected to fluctuate between 4.5% and 5% [2] - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for 10-year Treasury yields to 4.5%, driven by sustained economic growth and a tight labor market [2] - Long-term projections suggest that if the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 130%, 10-year yields could challenge 6% [2] Group 3 - High Treasury yields are expected to impact global financial markets, leading to a revaluation of corporate debt and increased financing costs [4] - The weakening of U.S. Treasury credit may accelerate diversification of foreign exchange reserves among central banks [4] - U.S. unilateral tariffs are causing trade partners to retaliate, increasing global supply chain costs and potentially reducing global economic growth [4] Group 4 - China is advised to reduce its concentration in U.S. Treasuries by increasing allocations to gold and non-U.S. sovereign debt [6] - There is a focus on reducing long-term U.S. Treasury exposure and increasing investments in inflation-protected securities [6] - China is encouraged to promote the expansion of the IMF and the use of multilateral clearing systems to decrease reliance on the U.S. dollar [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-05-28 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空情绪占优，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空情绪占优，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着宏观 ...

Legislative Developments - The "One Big Beautiful Tax Cut" bill was passed by the House of Representatives with a narrow margin of 215 votes in favor and 214 against, with all Democrats and two Republicans opposing it[14] - The bill is projected to increase the deficit by $3-4 trillion over the next 10 years, with $1 trillion in spending cuts and $4-5 trillion in tax reductions[19] Key Provisions - The bill includes tax reforms such as extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) provisions, reducing medical and food assistance, and increasing military spending[15][18] - It proposes to raise the debt ceiling by $4 trillion, allowing for increased government borrowing[19] Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market experienced a pullback, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices declining by 2.47% and 2.61% respectively during the week of May 17-24, 2025[6] - Long-term U.S. Treasury yields rose significantly, reflecting ongoing concerns about debt demand and inflation[6] Economic Indicators - The S&P Global PMI for May showed better-than-expected expansion, with manufacturing and services PMIs both at 52.3, indicating economic resilience despite tariff risks[31] - Natural gas prices surged by 11.16%, contributing to a general increase in commodity prices, while Bitcoin rose by 3.78%[6] Risks and Uncertainties - Economic fundamentals remain uncertain, with potential for a hard landing if employment and consumption metrics deteriorate significantly[34] - Policy uncertainties persist, particularly regarding the Trump administration's fiscal strategies and potential changes in tariff negotiations[34]

嗯，很多人不理解。 到底什么是稳定币？ 和我们普通人有什么关系？ 简单说一下， 稳定币是一种数字货币。 上周有个大消息，是被忽视的。 5月19号，美国参议院以66票赞成32票反对通过了一项法案，这个法案的全称是《美国稳定币 创新 引导和建立法案》。 它是由私人机构发行的，比如你用1美元买了1个稳定币，那机构就会收到1美元，对应发行1个稳定 币，就把实物美元变成了虚拟美元。 任何货币，都会有 锚定物的。 稳定币的锚定物，就是美元。 而机构如果收到了大量的美元，就会去买美债。 就和我们各个国家，和美国进行贸易之后，收到大量美元，也会去买美债。 这个时候，你发现了吧。 稳定币，为什么会卡在5月份的时候突然推出。 这背后， 大概就是美国为了应对6月美债危机的一个大杀招。 美国gov准备绕开美联储去发行美债了。 同时还有一个事情，那就是5月23日，我们HK光速通过了稳定币条例草案。 紧随其后，这就不算是偶然了。 这里补充一下时间线的知识点。 6月份漂亮是有6.5万亿的美债要到期，但目前的美债收益率创下了新高。 10年期超过了4.5%，30年期超过5%。 漂亮肯定不想顶着高息发债，可5月15日美联储发声了，不会选择货币债 ...