投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 5 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 基本面不佳，焦煤弱势震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 原料供应宽松，焦炭震荡走弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：5 月 15 日夜盘，焦煤主力再次走弱，均线维持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The credit bond ETF from Bosera is experiencing a tight market with active trading and significant liquidity, reflecting a structural contrast in credit expansion and economic policies in China [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 15, 2025, the Bosera credit bond ETF is priced at 100.54 yuan, with a turnover rate of 25.28% and a trading volume of 1.521 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [2]. - The ETF has reached a new high in scale at 6.028 billion yuan and a new high in shares at 59.9751 million, ranking in the top quarter among comparable funds [3]. - Over the past five days, the ETF has seen continuous net inflows, with a maximum single-day inflow of 286 million yuan, totaling 515 million yuan, averaging 103 million yuan daily [3]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - The ETF has recorded a maximum drawdown of 0.89% since inception, with a recovery period of 26 days, indicating resilience in performance [3]. - The management fee is 0.15% and the custody fee is 0.05%, which are the lowest among comparable funds [3]. - The ETF has a historical monthly profit percentage of 66.67% and a 100% probability of profit over a three-month holding period [3]. Group 3: Economic Context - As of April 2025, China's social financing scale increased by 8.7% year-on-year, with M2 balance growing by 8%, indicating a robust monetary environment [2]. - The average interest rate for new corporate loans in April was approximately 3.2%, down by about 4 basis points from the previous month, maintaining a historically low level [2]. - The current economic policies are focused on expanding fiscal measures to stimulate consumption and investment, with potential for further monetary easing [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term views for both coking coal and coke are "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the strong side", and the overall reference view is an "oscillation approach" [1]. - For coking coal, policy - side benefits drive a small upward rebound in futures, but the supply - demand relaxation situation restricts the rebound space, and it is expected to maintain low - level oscillation [5]. - For coke, short - term demand is okay and policy benefits improve the market atmosphere, but cost - side pressure from coking coal exists, and it is expected to maintain low - level oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - **Price Information**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1015.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decline of 1.5%, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 988 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Logic**: The relaxation of overseas pressure due to the Sino - US tariff consensus and a package of domestic favorable policies drive the upward rebound of coking coal futures. However, its weak fundamentals suppress the rebound strength, and the supply - demand relaxation restricts the rebound space [5]. Coke - **Price Information**: The latest quoted price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is 1440 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 1583 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Logic**: The cooling of Sino - US tariff friction drives a small rebound in coke futures. But there is a significant cost - side drag, the slowdown of fundamental benefits, and the limited growth space for molten iron output, so it is expected to maintain low - level oscillation [6].

Group 1 - The non-bank financial theme index in Hong Kong has seen a strong increase of 3.74%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Hongye Futures (up 16.01%) and China Taiping (up 8.85%) [1] - The Hong Kong non-bank ETF (513750) has risen by 3.92%, accumulating over 20% increase in the last 22 trading days [1] - The latest market capitalization of the Hong Kong non-bank ETF reached 1.566 billion [1] Group 2 - The recent monetary easing policies, including interest rate cuts, are expected to benefit the insurance sector, with analysts optimistic about the recovery potential of insurance stocks during the economic recovery cycle [2] - The insurance industry reported better-than-expected first-quarter results, with significant growth in new business value and improved solvency ratios for leading companies [2] - The Hong Kong non-bank ETF (513750) is the first ETF tracking the non-bank index, with over 70% of its investments in insurance stocks [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the easing of US-China trade tensions has led traders to retract their bets on aggressive monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), with current market pricing suggesting only three rate cuts for the remainder of the year [1][4] - Previously, traders anticipated that if demand for Australian products from China declined or a global economic recession occurred, the RBA would be forced to implement significant rate cuts [4] - The reduction in bets on RBA rate cuts reflects the cautious approach taken by RBA Governor Michele Bullock in response to the uncertainty created by the Trump administration's tariffs [4][5] Group 2 - Economists expect that the upcoming data will show Australia's unemployment rate remaining at 4.1% for April, and a recent report indicated that core inflation has fallen within the RBA's target range for the first time in over three years [4] - The expansionary fiscal policy in Australia is another reason investors believe the RBA's easing cycle may be shallow, with expectations of a more expansionary stance under a Labor-majority government [4] - Some economists still believe that the uncertainty stemming from Trump’s policies may lead the RBA to consider deeper rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting a potential reduction of the cash rate to 3.1% by the end of the year [5]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley strategists indicate that while sentiment towards the US stock market is improving, it is too early for investors to signal a "full alarm lift" [1] - The team led by Michael Wilson identified four factors necessary for a sustained rally, noting progress in only two: optimism around a trade agreement and stabilization of earnings forecasts [1] - The remaining two factors—more dovish Federal Reserve policies and 10-year Treasury yields below 4% without recession data—have not yet been achieved [1] Group 2 - On Monday, the US and China reached an important consensus on trade issues, leading to a jump in S&P 500 futures and a rebound in risk assets [3] - The S&P 500 index has recovered about half of its nearly 19% decline since February due to concerns over a global trade war, with the US government beginning negotiations with trade partners [3] - Approximately 30 companies have withdrawn or suspended earnings guidance due to tariff uncertainties, particularly in the automotive, durable goods, and industrial sectors [3] - Since the earnings reports were released, the average stock price increase in these sectors has risen [3] - The S&P 500 index has surpassed the previous resistance level of 5500 and is back in the range of 5500-6100, with further significant increases dependent on the details of the US-China trade agreement and a re-acceleration of earnings forecasts [3] - The next critical technical test for the S&P 500 index is at the convergence of the 200-day and 100-day moving averages (5750-5800) [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the 2509 contract of coking coal, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation with a weak bias respectively, suggesting an oscillation approach. The market sentiment is bearish, and coking coal maintains a weak trend [1]. - For the 2509 contract of coke, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation with a weak bias respectively, also suggesting an oscillation approach. Due to insufficient cost support, coke oscillates and weakens [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal (JM) - **Price and Cost**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimao Port is 1030 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.48%, and the cost of equivalent futures warehouse receipts is about 1003 yuan/ton [5]. - **Policy Impact**: On May 7, a series of major favorable policies were announced at a press conference, but the coking coal futures still oscillate weakly due to obvious fundamental pressure and a loose supply pattern [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The safety supervision environment in domestic main production areas is stable, coal production in Shanxi is rising, and the customs clearance efficiency at the China - Mongolia 288 Port is acceptable. In the week of May 9, the combined daily average output of coke from coking plants and steel mills was 114.22 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 tons. Since late March, the recovery of coke output on the demand side has not reversed the loose supply situation of coking coal, and the market sentiment remains bearish [5]. 3.2 Coke (J) - **Fundamental Situation**: The fundamental pattern of coke has not changed much, with supply and demand remaining at a high level. Short - term demand support is good, but the growth rate on the demand side has started to decline, and the room for further increase in molten iron output is limited [6]. - **Price and Cost**: As of the latest quotation, the FOB price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at the port is 1440 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period, and the cost of equivalent futures warehouse receipts is about 1585 yuan/ton; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at the port is 1320 yuan/ton, and the cost of equivalent warehouse receipts is about 1454 yuan/ton [6]. - **Policy and Market Outlook**: On May 7, a "package" of incremental policies were announced. Although there is short - term demand for coke, overseas risks and cost - side pressure from coking coal still exist. It is expected that the main contract of coke will maintain low - level oscillation in the near future [6].

Group 1 - The implementation of monetary easing policies, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, is seen as just the beginning of policy adjustments aimed at stimulating market demand and reducing funding costs [1][2][3] - The expectation is that the combination of domestic monetary easing and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will lead to increased market liquidity, which is essential for the growth of listed companies [3][4] - Investors are advised to pay attention to the underlying movements of institutional funds rather than just stock price trends, as this can provide insights into market opportunities [4][6] Group 2 - The phenomenon of "institutional shakeout" is highlighted, where institutions may intentionally depress stock prices to clear out speculative positions before a potential rally [10][11] - Data analysis tools, such as the "Bole System" app, are recommended for tracking institutional trading behaviors and identifying key signals that indicate market trends [6][11][13] - The presence of "short covering" signals and "institutional inventory" data can help investors understand the current trading dynamics and the potential for future price movements [11][13]

21世纪经济报道记者赖镇桃 广州报道 票型罕见地分裂成三方，反映出政策制定者的分歧，英国央行行长贝利的发言却释放出些许鹰派信号。 此前市场还预期这次决议声明可能会删除"渐进谨慎"的一贯表述，加快降息节奏，但5月8日的发布会 上，贝利仍然强调货币宽松政策延续"渐进和审慎"的基调不松口。 略偏强硬的表态，打压年内降息预期，掉期市场显示6月份英国央行降息的概率由50%下降到20%左 右，助推英镑、英国国债收益率快速走高。 下次降息时机或再押后 英国央行的降息，早在市场的意料之中。3月份，英国消费者价格指数（CPI）连续第二个月回落，同 比增速从2月的2.8%降至2.6%。 通胀降温提供了成熟的条件，美国滥施关税则是这轮降息的主要动因。据新华社报道，英国央行指出， 美国对全球加征关税以来，全球贸易政策不确定性加剧，金融市场出现波动，这种不确定性和新的关税 措施导致全球经济增长前景变弱。 美国滥施关税对英国经济的冲击已经有所显现。标普日前公布的数据显示，4月英国综合采购经理指数 （PMI）从3月的51.5下跌至48.5，为2023年10月以来首次跌入收缩区间，服务业活动也在连续17个月扩 张后首次跌至荣枯线以下，主要由 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For both coking coal and coke, the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", with an overall "oscillation" approach [1]. - Coking coal has high supply pressure and a weak fundamental situation, which drags down the futures to run at a low level. The follow - up trend of Sino - US trade issues needs attention [5]. - Although there are short - term favorable policies for coke, overseas risks and cost - side pressures from coking coal still exist, and the long - short game is intense, with the futures main contract likely to maintain low - level oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price Information**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1035.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 1008 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Situation**: On May 7, a series of major favorable policies were introduced, but the domestic main production areas have a stable safety supervision environment, coal production in Shanxi remains high, and the reduction in imports is expected to be limited, resulting in high supply pressure [5]. Coke (J) - **Price Information**: The latest quotation of the quasi - first - grade flat - price at Rizhao Port is 1440 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 1583 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Situation**: A "package" of incremental policies were introduced this week, and after a period of fermentation, the market will refocus on Sino - US trade issues and the commodity's own fundamentals. Although short - term demand is okay, overseas risks and coking coal cost - side pressures still exist [6].