Core Viewpoint - Tokyo apartment rents are rising at the fastest pace in 30 years, indicating a deepening inflation trend in Japan, which may pressure the Bank of Japan to adjust its monetary policy [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Rent Increase Data** - In April-May this year, rents in the Tokyo metropolitan area increased by 1.3% year-on-year, marking the largest increase since 1994 [1] - This increase is relatively modest compared to Tokyo's core inflation rate of 3.6% and the global trend of rising rents, but it signifies that the inflation cycle is penetrating the rental market [1] - **Implications for Monetary Policy** - The rising rents and general price increases provide a basis for the Bank of Japan to consider further interest rate hikes [1] - Hiroshi Kawata, Chief Asian Economist at Mizuho Research & Technologies, stated that the rent increase confirms the Bank of Japan's notion of a "normalization shift," indicating a rise in base prices that could accelerate the normalization of monetary policy [1] - **Monitoring Real Estate Market** - The Bank of Japan has identified the real estate market as a key issue that requires close monitoring in its semi-annual financial system report [1]

澳新银行：油价冲击对亚洲经济体来说是可控的 金十数据6月23日讯，澳新银行经济学家表示，尽管大多数亚洲经济体是石油净进口国，容易受到油价 飙升的冲击，但目前油价的波动仍在可控范围内。他们指出，市场在最初的本能反应之后，正采取观望 态度，焦点转向伊朗的反应。若霍尔木兹海峡关闭，布伦特原油价格可能升至每桶90至95美元。他们 称，油价上升将通过通胀反映出来，并补充说，泰国因交通燃料在其通胀篮子中的比重较高，预计将成 为亚洲升幅最大的国家。澳新银行认为，近期的油价飙升不太可能干扰亚洲多国正在逐步推进的谨慎货 币政策正常化进程。 布伦特原油 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government bond market is experiencing significant turmoil, with yields on bonds exceeding 20 years reaching historical highs, raising concerns about the impact on government finances and potential risks to the real economy [1][2]. Group 1: Government Bond Market Dynamics - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has been a major buyer of government bonds, holding over 559 trillion yen, which accounts for 52% of the issuance as of the end of 2024 [1]. - Following the appointment of Kazuo Ueda as BOJ governor, the bank has begun to normalize its monetary policy, reducing bond purchases by 4 trillion yen each quarter since July of the previous year [1]. - Domestic investors, including commercial banks, pension funds, and life insurance companies, are constrained in their ability to purchase bonds due to regulatory and capital requirements, leading to further declines in bond prices and rising yields [2][3]. Group 2: International Investor Sentiment - International investors are increasingly attracted to Japanese government bonds, believing that yields will continue to rise due to predictions of worsening fiscal conditions in Japan [2][3]. - The trading volume of international investors in the Japanese bond market has reached 50% of total trading volume, indicating strong foreign interest [3]. - The yield on Japanese bonds purchased with dollar-denominated risk hedging has reached 7%, making them an attractive option in global duration strategies [3]. Group 3: Implications for Financial Institutions - Rising bond yields may benefit banks in terms of interest income but could also lead to paper losses and increased financing costs, negatively impacting the real economy [3][4]. - The lack of sufficient domestic buyers for government bonds poses sustainability challenges for the Japanese government's fiscal operations [3][4]. Group 4: BOJ's Policy Response - The BOJ has maintained its policy rate at 0.5% and decided to continue reducing long-term bond purchases, adjusting the quarterly reduction from 4 trillion yen to 2 trillion yen starting in April 2026 [4][5]. - The BOJ's recent decisions have not effectively addressed the shortage of domestic buyers and are unlikely to curb the profit-taking actions of international investors [4][5]. - Following the BOJ's decisions, the yield on 10-year government bonds rose from 1.16% to 1.197%, reflecting market reactions to the policy [5].

日本央行官员在问答中表示，过快缩减购债规模可能会在市场上产生意想不到的影响。 6月17日，日本央行货币政策决策会议决定将政策利率维持在现有的0.5%不变，符合市场预期，连续第 三次会议按兵不动。 对于本次议息会议，市场关注的焦点在于日本央行是否会逐步调整购买日本国债规模的计划。日本央行 于2024年3月结束了超宽松货币政策，自2024年8月以来，日本央行每季度减少购买4000亿日元债券，按 此速度，至2026年3月，购买额将从最初的每月5.7万亿日元降至每月2.9万亿日元。 日本央行放缓削减购债步伐，维护市场稳定性 随着日本国内的宏观经济环境和通胀预期发生的显著变化，近期日本超长期国债市场处境艰难，一级市 场债券拍卖遇冷，二级市场债券被大量抛售、长期利率出现急剧上升的局面。 长期以来，日本央行是日本国债市场中最大最稳定的买家，日本央行退出债券购买计划直接削弱了日本 长期债券的需求支撑，引发了日本国债市场流动性枯竭和价格调整压力。 日本国债市场的剧烈震荡，迫使日本央行考虑调整量化紧缩型货币政策的节奏。在本次会议上，日本央 行官员明确表示，长期来看国债收益率应由市场来决定，将考虑市场参与者对债券市场的看法，将以可 ...

谈及经济和通胀形势，植田和男表示，当前日本经济呈温和复苏态势，物价方面未出现大幅波动，不过 通胀预期仍未稳定达到2%的目标水平。他强调，若经济前景符合预期，将适时考虑加息政策。植田和 男还关注到一些外部因素对通胀趋势的潜在影响，如食品价格上涨以及中东地区冲突，若持续发酵，可 能对趋势通胀产生二次影响，为此，日本央行将密切跟踪中东局势动态。此外，他重申贸易政策存在高 度不确定性，认为其影响预计更为显著，当前全球与情绪相关的数据走弱，不少观点认为今年下半年经 济数据不容乐观，在此背景下，全面、深入评估广泛数据和信息，对准确把握经济形势和制定合理政策 至关重要。 在6月16日至17日的议息会议上，日本央行决定维持0.5%的政策利率不变，展现鸽派政策立场。同时， 下调经济增长预测及通货膨胀预期，指出全球经济体贸易政策不确定性高，给日本经济复苏和物价稳定 带来下行压力。日本央行强调需密切监控外汇市场波动、金融市场动态以及国际贸易政策变化对国内经 济与价格走势的潜在影响。尽管近期通胀率有所上升，但央行决策者倾向于在核心通胀率长期稳固接近 2%目标水平前，维持当前宽松货币政策立场。 日本央行购债计划也有调整。近期宣布，在2 ...

【导读】日本央行宣布利率不变、放缓缩表 见习记者储是 本周全球将迎来"超级央行周"，美联储利率决议备受关注，日本、英国、瑞士央行决策也是焦点。 6月17日，亚洲交易时段，日本央行发布的一份声明显示，日本央行维持基准利率不变，决定明年以较慢的速度削减购债规模，在市场波动加剧后展现谨 慎态度。 日本央行：利率不变，明年将放缓削减购债步伐 根据日本央行周二的声明，在为期两天的会议结束后，行长植田和男领导的央行理事会维持0.5%的基准政策利率不变。 日本央行也表示，计划从下一财年开始，将每月购债规模从目前的每季4000亿日元削减至每季2000亿日元（13.4亿美元）。 市场表现上，日元汇率、股市微涨。截至发稿，日经225指数涨幅维持在0.60%上下，日元兑美元维持在144.60上下。 日经225指数止跌企稳来源：Wind 本周"利率周"前，日本央行称，必须继续努力，进一步促进日本国内对政府债券的所有权，以避免供需失衡导致长期日债利率飙升。 近段时间日本债市动荡，超长期债券收益率升至历史高位，债券票面价值下跌出现浮亏，并且国债发行拍卖遇冷。 图为日本30年期国债收益率曲线，5月21日创下新高 工银国际首席经济学家程实认 ...

【导读】日本央行宣布利率不变、放缓缩表 6月17日，亚洲交易时段，日本央行发布 的 一份 声明 显示，日本央行维持基准利率不变， 决定明年以较慢的速度削减购债规模，在市场波动加剧后展现谨慎态度。 日本央行：利率不变，明年将放缓削减购债步伐 根据日本央行周二的声明，在为期两天的会议结束后，行长植田和男领导的央行理事会维持 0.5% 的 基准政策利率不变。 日本央行也表示，计划从下一财年开始，将每月购债规模从目前的每季4000亿日元削减至每 季2000亿日元（13.4亿美元）。 市场表现上，日元汇率 、 股市微涨 。 截至发稿，日经 225 指数涨幅维持在 0 . 60% 上 下，日元兑美元维持在 144 . 60 上下 。 见习记者 储是 本周全球将迎来"超级央行周"，美联储利率决议备受关注，日本、英国、瑞士央行决策也是 焦点。 日经 225 指数止跌企稳 来源 ： W ind 日本债市近期动荡， 市场 关注 央行缩表节奏 本周"利率周"前，日本央行称，必须继续努力，进一步促进日本国内对政府债券的所有权， 以避免供需失衡导致长期日债利率飙升。 近段时间日本债市动荡，超长期债券收益率升至历史高位，债券票面价值下跌 ...

日本央行因美国关税政策的不确定性，或将推迟今年的加息计划。根据路透社的调查，略占多数的经济 学家预计加息将在2026年第一季度进行。同时，多数受访者认为，日本央行将从明年开始放慢国债购买 的缩减速度，且预计政府将减少超长期债券的发行。 根据路透社6月2日至10日的调查，因美国关税政策存在不确定性，略占多数的经济学家预测，日本央行 今年将不会再次加息，并预计下一次加息将在2026年初，幅度为25个基点。 这一最新调查结果反映出政策制定者的担忧情绪。目前，美国总统特朗普的反复无常的关税政策正威胁 着全球经济前景，投资者也愈发关注日本公共财政的可持续性。 尽管全球主要央行正倾向于降息，日本央行仍在推进货币政策正常化。行长植田和男强调，如果潜在通 胀接近2%的目标，日本央行准备继续加息。 新金中央银行研究所高级经济学家角田匠（Takumi Tsunoda）表示："如果美国与其他国家之间的贸易 谈判取得进展，全球经济活动可能会加快。" 多数受访者还表示，日本央行将在下一个财政年度开始放缓国债购买的缩减节奏。同时，四分之三的经 济学家预计，日本政府将减少超长期国债的发行量。 在有关国债购买方面的调查中，31位经济学家中有 ...

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 6 月 10 日 今日焦点 | 全球宏观 | | | --- | --- | | 从日债到美债：全球期限溢价的涟漪 | 宏观策略 | | 李少金 Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com | | 作为全球第二大债券市场，日本超长债收益率的快速上涨，折射出全球 债券市场在财政扩张与央行政策分化背景下的结构性变化。在关税贸易 政策不确定性持续的当下，市场对各国财政政策进一步宽松的预期正推 高风险溢价，或预示着全球长端利率重估周期的来临。 | 全球主要指数 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 年初至今 | | | 收盘价 | 升跌% | 升跌% | | 恒指 | 24,181 | 1.61 | 17.43 | | 国指 | 8,780 | 1.74 | 20.44 | | 上 A | 3,563 | 0.43 | 1.42 | | 上 B | 257 | 0.26 | -3.92 | | 深 A | 2,120 | 0.93 | 3.53 | | 深 B | 1,188 | -0.49 | -2.07 | | 道指 | 42, ...

Global Macro - The rapid rise in Japanese super-long government bond yields since mid-May 2025 has triggered turbulence in the global bond market, with the 40-year bond yield surpassing 3.68%, the highest since its issuance in 2007 [2][6][23] - The increase in yields reflects structural changes in the global bond market amid fiscal expansion and diverging central bank policies, with expectations of further fiscal easing pushing up risk premiums [2][6][23] Japanese Long-term Bond Yield Dynamics - The primary driver of the recent rise in Japanese long-term bond yields is the gradual normalization of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, which has created conditions for the repricing of super-long government bonds [3][24] - A structural imbalance in supply and demand has exacerbated market volatility, as the absence of the Bank of Japan as a "super buyer" has removed crucial market support [3][30] - The demand side is also under pressure, with rising interest rate expectations leading domestic institutional investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach, further weakening buying power [3][37] Economic Challenges and Policy Dilemmas - Japan's economy faces dual challenges of weak domestic demand and external tariff shocks, with the central bank caught in a policy dilemma [3][52] - The government debt-to-GDP ratio has surpassed 260%, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability as rising long-term bond yields increase borrowing costs [3][60] Spillover Effects on Global Bond Markets - The volatility in Japanese long-term bond yields has significant spillover effects on the U.S. Treasury market, with Japanese insurers and pension funds potentially exerting structural selling pressure on U.S. bonds [3][64] - The global bond market is undergoing a systematic reassessment of risk premiums, with Japan's long-term bond yields acting as a "ballast" in the global interest rate system [3][70] U.S. Treasury Yield Outlook - Short-term risks for U.S. Treasury yields are notable, with expectations of a resolution to the debt ceiling issue leading to substantial net issuance of $300-400 billion within 2-3 months [3][91] - The anticipated fiscal policies under the Trump administration may further pressure U.S. Treasury yields, with a projected range of 4.0-5.0% for the 10-year yield by the end of 2025 [3][105]