日本央行推出一项跨度长达百年的计划，逐步减持其持有的巨额交易所交易基金(ETF)，这一举措正为 日本股市移除此前悬而未决的重大"重压"(指大规模持仓对市场流动性和估值的潜在抑制)。 短期震荡后市场快速企稳，"慢减持"成核心定心丸 上周五，日本央行宣布将减持规模达75万亿日元(约合5070亿美元)的ETF持仓时，基准股指应声下跌， 呈现"条件反射式"反应。但随着市场焦点转向该计划"极慢的推进节奏"，即日本央行拟按市值计算每年 仅减持约6200亿日元，交易员们迅速缩小跌幅，股指收复大部分失地。 值得一提的是，央行宣布消息的当周，日本蓝筹股指数日经225指数与更广泛的东证指数(Topix)均创下 历史新高。过去两年，日本股市展现出极强的抗冲击韧性，印证了市场信心：先是在2024年日本央行终 结负利率政策后迅速反弹，近期又在美国加征关税的背景下实现上涨。从期货合约走势看，东京股市周 一有望延续涨势。 "投资者一直对日本央行何时开始减持ETF心存担忧——很多人都向我问过这个问题。"东海东京调查咨 询公司(Tokai Tokyo Intelligence Laboratory Co.)首席股票分析师Seiichi Suz ...

Group 1 - The Nikkei 225 index rose by 1.46%, with Nikkei ETFs increasing over 2%, indicating a positive market trend in Japan [1] - Foreign investors are reshaping the structure of the Japanese capital market, highlighted by Berkshire Hathaway increasing its stake in Mitsubishi Corporation to 10.23% [1] - Mitsubishi Corporation and Mitsui & Co. are engaging in discussions with Berkshire Hathaway regarding their shareholdings, reflecting ongoing interest from foreign investors [1] Group 2 - The manager of the Nikkei 225 ETF E Fund anticipates a stable domestic demand supported by a virtuous cycle of wages and inflation, despite external uncertainties [2] - The Bank of Japan is expected to gradually normalize its monetary policy, focusing on interest rate hikes and balance sheet reduction, which will be key market focal points [2] - Ongoing corporate governance reforms in Japan are encouraging companies to prioritize shareholder returns, such as increasing dividends and stock buybacks, attracting long-term value investors [2] Group 3 - The Nikkei 225 index serves as a key benchmark for the Japanese stock market, reflecting the performance of 225 major blue-chip companies and the overall economic recovery [3] - The index's performance has outpaced Japan's nominal GDP growth, drawing renewed attention from global investors amid corporate governance reforms and global supply chain restructuring [3] - The E Fund manager notes that Japan's economy faces challenges from inflation, trade policy uncertainties, and geopolitical tensions, which could impact growth [3] Group 4 - Key variables to watch in the second half of the year include the outcomes of the Japanese Senate elections and progress in US-Japan tariff negotiations [4] - The Japanese stock market is expected to maintain upward momentum due to factors such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and strong performance in the technology sector [4] - The exchange rate of the yen will be influenced by the pace of monetary policy divergence, economic data validation, and geopolitical developments, with a slight appreciation against the RMB anticipated [4]

Group 1 - Berkshire Hathaway's subsidiary has increased its voting rights stake in Mitsubishi Corporation from 9.74% in March to 10.23% [1] - Following the announcement, Mitsubishi Corporation's stock rose by 2.9%, marking the largest increase in three weeks, while Mitsui & Co. saw a 1.8% increase [1] - The investment in Japan's five major trading companies began in August 2020, with Berkshire acquiring 5% stakes in each for approximately $30 billion [1] Group 2 - The five major trading companies control significant sectors of the Japanese economy, with Mitsubishi handling 1/5 of global LNG trade and Itochu deeply involved in renewable energy [2] - Japan's unique "trading company model" relies heavily on trade, with 90% of its GDP dependent on it, aligning well with Berkshire's "holding + operation" strategy [2] - Recent corporate governance reforms in Japan have provided institutional benefits for investors like Buffett, with a projected stock buyback scale of 16.8 trillion yen in 2024 [2] Group 3 - As of August 28, the Tokyo Stock Exchange index has risen by 0.65%, with a cumulative increase of over 30% since the low point on April 7 [3] - The surge in the Tokyo Stock Exchange index is largely driven by foreign investors, with continuous net inflows being a key factor in the rebound since April [5]

Group 1 - Foreign investors ended a 17-week buying streak in the Japanese stock market, selling 189 billion yen (approximately 1.3 billion USD) worth of stocks in the week ending August 1, marking the first net sell since March [1] - Japanese insurance companies took the opportunity to realize profits, with net sales of 282 billion yen, the highest level on record, indicating a faster pace of selling cross-shareholdings [1] - The US-Japan tariff agreement, which reduced tariffs on Japanese exports (including automobiles) from 25% to 15%, is viewed positively by the market, especially considering the previous challenges faced during negotiations [1] Group 2 - The Tokyo Stock Exchange index reached a record high, closing up 0.72% at 2987.92 points, marking the third consecutive day of gains, with an intraday high of 2993.21 points [2] - The resolution of US tariff uncertainties has created a relatively positive environment for the Japanese stock market, with potential for upward adjustments in corporate earnings per share [2] - Ongoing corporate governance reforms led by the Tokyo Stock Exchange have improved the quality of listed companies, making the overall market more shareholder-friendly [2]

智通财经APP注意到，摩根大通(JPM.US)去年在日本市场超越全球竞争对手，得益于该国推动企业治理改革引发的交易热潮。 监管文件显示，截至3月31日的财年，这家美国投行在当地证券子公司的净利润增长逾一倍至456亿日元(3.09亿美元)，创至少七年来新高，扭转了上年下滑 态势，主要因并购咨询和承销业务激增。 近年来日本企业加速收购及剥离非核心资产，为投行创造更多机会。这一趋势也加剧了从花旗集团到德意志银行等国际机构的抢人大战。 摩根大通的利润因交易热潮而飙升 摩根士丹利当地证券子公司同期营收创下1532亿日元纪录，部分得益于债券股票承销及销售收入的增长，但因配合交易量增加计提负债准备金，净利润下降 2.3%至319亿日元。 法国巴黎银行经纪业务部门利润则因佣金下滑减少2.9%至206亿日元。 这些数据与其他国际大行截至12月31日的年报形成反差。去年8月日本央行加息后，该国市场出现数十年来最剧烈波动，股市创1987年10月股灾以来最大跌 幅，债券价格震荡令部分交易商受损(尽管股市已回升)。 | Net Profit (billion | | Net Revenue (billion | Headcount ( ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese stock market has stabilized after significant volatility caused by the yen's appreciation last year, with current market conditions suggesting a lower likelihood of a repeat collapse in 2024 [1][4]. Group 1: Market Stability and Investor Sentiment - Analysts highlight that improved communication from the Bank of Japan, ongoing corporate governance reforms, and favorable US-China tariff agreements have contributed to a more stable market environment [4]. - The market has formed expectations for continued interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards a more optimistic outlook [4][7]. - The volatility of the yen has decreased significantly compared to the previous year, with the exchange rate around 146.95 against the dollar, contrasting with a 10% increase in the same period last year [4][7]. Group 2: Corporate Governance and Foreign Investment - Foreign capital is flowing into the Japanese stock market, driven by corporate buybacks and governance reforms that enhance long-term value for investors [10]. - The ongoing reforms aimed at increasing shareholder returns are seen as attractive for global investors seeking diversified portfolios [10]. - The potential for fiscal expansion policies post-elections is expected to boost domestic demand sectors, further enhancing market attractiveness [10]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have raised their target prices for the Nikkei 225 and Topix indices, citing that US-China tariff agreements remaining below 15% will alleviate export pressures on Japan [12]. - The yen's trajectory remains a critical variable, with potential implications for market resilience if the Federal Reserve lowers rates while the Bank of Japan continues tightening [12][13]. - Current exchange rates are becoming a new indicator for observing global capital flows, reflecting the interconnectedness of international markets [13].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Japanese Senate election poses significant uncertainty for the ruling coalition, with potential implications for market volatility and stock performance as various polls indicate a risk of losing majority seats [1][2][4]. Group 1: Election Impact on Market - Historical data suggests that when the ruling party loses majority seats in the Senate, the stock market typically declines [2]. - The scale of the ruling coalition's loss will directly influence market reactions, with different scenarios outlined based on the election outcome [9]. - If the ruling coalition maintains its majority, Prime Minister Kishida will continue to govern, but the stability of the House of Representatives remains in question [9]. Group 2: Political Stability Concerns - There is a notable concern regarding the potential resignation of Prime Minister Kishida if the ruling coalition loses its majority, which could lead to a more fluid political situation [4][5]. - The probability of Kishida stepping down by 2025 is perceived as significant, reflecting deep market concerns about political stability [5]. Group 3: Corporate Governance Challenges - The election outcome may challenge corporate governance reforms, as left-wing parties oppose current reforms and right-wing parties call for stricter regulations [10]. - Key issues include proposals for increased taxes on large corporations and high-net-worth individuals, as well as a reevaluation of shareholder-focused governance models [10]. Group 4: Trade Negotiations and Economic Policy - The Senate election results will also impact the ongoing U.S.-Japan tariff negotiations, with the ruling coalition likely to avoid making concessions during the election period [11][12]. - If the ruling coalition remains in power, clarity on tariff negotiations may emerge post-election; however, significant changes in government could delay agreements further [13].

Group 1 - The Ninety One Global Strategy Fund - Asian Equity Fund has increased its allocation to Samsung Electronics, reflecting a positive outlook on the company's potential despite its current underperformance compared to competitors like SK Hynix [1][2] - The fund has achieved a 15% return this year, outperforming 94% of its peers, as the South Korean KOSPI index has risen nearly 30%, making it one of the best-performing stock indices globally [1] - Fund manager Charlie Linton believes that many investors have mispriced Samsung due to its lag in the high bandwidth memory (HBM) chip market, but anticipates that the next generation of DRAM chips will help Samsung catch up [2] Group 2 - Samsung's stock has increased by 20% this year, while SK Hynix's stock has surged nearly 60%, indicating a significant performance gap [2] - Linton's team employs a model to screen stocks in the Asian region based on various factors such as quality, valuation, operational performance, and technical momentum, aiming to select stocks that can withstand market volatility [2] - The fund's positive stance on Samsung is partly due to its attractive valuation, as Linton notes that almost all investors are underweight on Samsung [2]