值得一提的是，当前鲍威尔的任期将在明年结束，即便不被解职，届时总统仍有权提名新任主席。正因如此，一些议员如金融服务委员会主席法兰奇·希尔 也表示，不妨等待自然过渡，避免通过政治手段干预货币政策的声誉。 GTC泽汇认为，这一事件所释放的最大风险，在于可能破坏市场对美联储制度稳定的信心。若外界担心货币政策会根据短期选举周期频繁转向，将对美元汇 率、债券市场乃至全球流动性配置产生连锁反应。 总体而言，GTC泽汇建议投资者密切关注美国政界在货币政策上的博弈走向，同时警惕相关消息面对风险资产的短期冲击。对于中长期配置者而言，关注联 储在经济数据驱动下的真实决策路径，而非政治言论引发的波动，依旧是更具理性的投资策略。 近期围绕美国前总统特朗普可能解除联邦储备主席鲍威尔职务的传言，再度引发市场和政界对美联储独立性的关注。GTC泽汇认为，尽管相关言论尚未转化 为实际行动，但由此引发的政策不确定性已经对投资者信心造成一定扰动，尤其在当前经济环境下，更需稳定货币政策的方向感。 作为美联储主席，鲍威尔历经多轮加息与货币紧缩周期，其决策立场虽曾遭多方质疑，但美联储作为全球最具影响力的央行，其独立性始终是全球资本市场 稳定运行的重要基 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Israel-Iran conflict has significantly impacted global financial markets, particularly the precious metals market, leading to increased volatility in gold and silver prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the initiation of the "Lion's Roar" operation by Israel on June 13, gold prices surged, with COMEX gold reaching a peak of $3,470 per ounce and Shanghai gold hitting 800 yuan per gram [1]. - After the conflict escalated, gold prices retreated to a low of $3,300 per ounce, marking a decline of 5%, while Shanghai gold fell to 770 yuan per gram, a decrease of approximately 3.7% [1]. - Silver prices also experienced significant fluctuations, reaching a historical high of 9,075 yuan per kilogram during the conflict, but subsequently fell to around 8,700 yuan per kilogram after the ceasefire [1][2]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Global gold ETF holdings have been increasing continuously, driven by heightened risk aversion among investors due to the conflict [2]. - In contrast, domestic trading volumes for Shanghai gold and silver have remained relatively subdued, indicating a more cautious and rational approach from local investors [2]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Precious Metals - The conflict has raised concerns about energy production and shipping stability in the Middle East, particularly regarding the safety of the Strait of Hormuz, which could impact global economic growth and inflation [2][3]. - The relationship between gold and oil prices has strengthened during the conflict, with fears of stagflation in developed economies if oil exports are restricted [3]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly its stance on interest rates, is also influencing gold prices, with potential shifts depending on the economic impact of the conflict [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The immediate impact of the Israel-Iran conflict on global energy supply chains and shipping routes is considered limited, suggesting that gold prices may lack sustained upward momentum in the short term [4]. - However, if the Federal Reserve initiates interest rate cuts later in the year, there could be a new wave of upward pressure on gold and silver prices [4]. - The long-term outlook remains positive for gold prices, driven by increasing physical demand from central bank purchases over the next 3 to 5 years [4].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of remaining calm amidst market exuberance, highlighting that underlying capital dynamics are crucial for investment success [1] - It discusses three major challenges facing the current bull market: geopolitical tensions, monetary policy uncertainties, and currency market fluctuations [2][4][5] Group 2 - The article points out the disparity in index performance, noting that the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has outperformed micro-cap stocks by 13 times over three days, indicating a selective investment environment [7] - It describes the behavioral patterns of retail investors, illustrating a cycle of cautious profit-taking followed by aggressive chasing of highs, which leads to "fear of missing out" [8] - The rise of quantitative trading strategies is highlighted, with institutions leveraging AI and machine learning to gain an edge over retail investors who rely on traditional indicators [10] Group 3 - The article introduces the concept of "hot money chasing," where stocks that attract significant capital often experience independent price movements, emphasizing the need for quantitative tools to identify these signals [11] - It explains the deceptive nature of "shakeout" signals in the market, where institutions may use tactics to mislead retail investors while accumulating positions [13] - The narrative concludes with the assertion that understanding market dynamics through data analysis can help investors avoid emotional traps and make informed decisions [15]