世界500强投资企业 E 突期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 市 市 官 方 网 站 服 热 线 同 有 课 风 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn ts no 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/5/28 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX更金 | CONEX日银 | AU2508 | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盗司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点机 | | | | | | | | | | | 格跟踪 | 2025/5 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold has rebounded, and attention should be paid to the continued rise of the gold - silver ratio. Gold is relatively strong, and silver is neutral. The price ranges are 760 - 800 yuan/gram for gold and 7900 - 8350 yuan/kilogram for silver. [3] - Although gold has long - term upward potential, the current driving factors are weaker than the previous tariff contradictions. Gold is likely to show a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, but it is difficult to break through the previous high. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Market Review - **Price and Price Change**: London gold rose 5.02%, and London silver rose 2.99%. The gold - silver ratio increased from 99.6 to 101.4. The 10 - year TIPS rose to 2.18%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate rose to 4.51% (2 - year 4%), and the US dollar index was 99.1. [3] - **Futures Trading and Position Changes**: There were changes in trading volume and positions of various gold and silver futures contracts, such as the trading volume of沪银2506 increasing by 65,240 hands and the position increasing by 29,805 hands. [4] - **Comex and ETF Position Changes**: Comex silver and gold non - commercial net long positions, as well as SLV and SPDR ETF positions, all had corresponding changes. For example, Comex silver non - commercial net long positions increased by 45,645 hands. [4] - **Inventory Changes**: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.13 million ounces to 38.79 million ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 5.47 million ounces to 569.69 million ounces. [36][38] - **Domestic Futures - Spot Price Difference Changes**: The gold and silver futures - spot price differences were at the lower end of the historical range. For example, the gold futures - spot price difference was - 4.38 yuan/gram. [16][19] - **Domestic Inter - month Price Difference Changes**: The gold and silver inter - month price differences were also at the lower end of the historical range. For example, the gold inter - month price difference was 6.02 yuan/gram. [23][27] - **Internal and External Price Difference Changes**: There were changes in the internal and external price differences of gold and silver, such as the silver T + D to London silver price difference changing from - 385 to - 501. [4] - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index fell 1.84%, and other exchange rates also had corresponding changes. [4] 3.2 Overseas Futures - Spot Price Difference - **Gold**: This week, the London spot - COMEX gold主力 price difference fell to - 0.181 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX gold continuous - COMEX gold主力 price difference was - 6.7 dollars/ounce. [9] - **Silver**: This week, the London spot - COMEX silver主力 price difference widened to - 0.26 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX silver continuous - COMEX silver主力 price difference was - 0.43 dollars/ounce. [12] 3.3 Domestic Futures - Spot Price Difference - **Gold**: This week, the gold futures - spot price difference was - 4.38 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range. [16] - **Silver**: This week, the silver futures - spot price difference was - 19 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range. [19] 3.4 Inter - month Price Difference - **Gold**: This week, the gold inter - month price difference was 6.02 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range. [23] - **Silver**: This week, the silver inter - month price difference was 65 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range. [27] 3.5 Cross - month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Cost - There were calculations of cross - month positive arbitrage delivery costs for buying TD and selling Shanghai gold, buying Shanghai gold 12 - month and selling 6 - month, buying TD and selling Shanghai silver, and buying Shanghai silver 12 - month and selling 6 - month. [30][31][32][33] 3.6 Shanghai Gold Exchange Deferred Fee Payment Direction This week, the gold and silver deferred fees on the Shanghai Gold Exchange were mainly paid by longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power. [34] 3.7 Gold Core Drivers - **Gold and Real Interest Rate**: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rate recovered, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline. [60] - **Inflation and Retail Sales Performance**: There were data on inflation and retail sales performance, such as the US PCE and core PCE year - on - year changes. [65] - **Non - farm Employment Performance**: There were data on non - farm employment, such as new non - farm employment numbers and unemployment rates. [67][68][69] - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions**: There were related analyses of the industrial manufacturing cycle and financial conditions. [71] - **Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index**: There were discussions on these two indices. [73] - **Fed Rate Cut Probability**: There were calculations and analyses of the Fed rate cut probability. [75]

期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询号：Z0017510 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询号：Z0021675 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 大宗商品研究所 贵金属研发报告 贵金属衍生品日报 2025 年 5 月 22 日 研究所副所长：车红云 1.贵金属市场：今天白天贵金属先扬后抑，伦敦金当前交投于 3314 美元附 近，伦敦银则交投于 33.4 美元附近。受外盘影响，沪金主力合约收涨 1.22%，报 780.1 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 1.06%，报 8301 元/千克。 2.美元指数：美元指数低位波动，当前交投于 99.7 附近。 3.美债收益率：10 年美债收益率重回高位，当前交投于 4.58%附近。 4.人民币汇率：人民币兑美元汇率高开低走，当前交投于 7.205 附近。 【重要资讯】 1.特朗普政府动向：①21 日，美国商务部长卢特尼克：希望在今年夏天关税 暂停到期之前与大多数主要合作伙伴达成贸易协议。②据悉欧盟拟提出对美国的贸 易提案，以推动谈判。 北京：010-68569781 邮箱： wangluchen_qh@chinastock.c ...

贵金属产业日报 2025-05-22 银价走势相关性下行，近期白银主要保持黄金跟涨节奏。此外，有数据表明白银的工业需求维持强劲。中 免责声明 国风能和太阳能装机容量2025第一季度激增至近1500吉瓦，其中光伏装机容量增加了60吉瓦；欧洲太阳能 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 发电量同比增长30%，白银工业属性或维持韧性。操作上建议，维持中长期逢低布局思路。沪金2508合约 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 关注区间：758-805元/克；沪银2508合约关注区间：8200-8390元/千克。COMEX黄金期货关注区间：3240 -3380美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货关注区间：32.9-34.0美元/盎司。 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-05-22 长期美债标售情况较差 贵金属高位震荡 2025-05-21，沪金主力合约开于 760.60元/克，收于 778.78元/克，较前一交易日收盘 3.23%。当日成交量为 396470手，持仓量为 222494手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于 775.16 元/克，收于 777.74 元/克，较昨日午后收盘 上涨0.92%。 2025-05-21，沪银主力合约开于 8158元/千克，收于 8272元/千克，较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 882938手，持仓量 363057手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于 8,265 元/千克，收于 8,285 元/千克，较昨日午后收盘 上涨0.86%。 美债收益率与利差监控： 2025-05-21，美国 10 年期国债利率收于4.48%，较前一交易日变化0.02%，10 年前与 2 年期利差为0.51%，较前 一交易日上涨2个基点。 上期所金银持仓与成交量变化情况： 2025-05-21，Au2502合约上，多头较前一日变化297手，空头则是变化-765手。沪金合约上个交易日总成交量为 667412手，较前一交易日上涨 52.47%。在 ...

贵金属日报：震荡回升 中长期维持看涨 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年5月22日 【行情回顾】 周三贵金属价格延续回升，美国新预算法案引发交易员对赤字的担忧，美债拍卖结果不佳，美国市场 股债汇三杀，欧洲股市则震荡。最终黄金2506合约收报3316.6美元/盎司，+0.97%；美白银2507合约收 报于33.575美元/盎司，+1.21%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合约收报778.78元/克，+2.98%；SHFE白银 2506合约收8272元/千克，+2.04%。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为94.6%，降息25个基点的概率为 5.4%；美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为73.1%，累计降息25个基点的概率为25.7%，累计降息50个基点 的概率为1.2%；美联储9月维持利率不变的概率33.1%，累计降息25个基点的概率为51.6%，累计降息50 个基点的概率为14.6%，累计降息75个基点的概率为0.7%。长线基金看，SPDR黄金ETF持仓日减1.72吨 至919.88吨；iShare ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 表1 黄金相关数据： 上期所会员沪金净持仓排名前10 | | | 净多元 | | | | 学卒成 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名次 | 会员简称 | 净多車 | 增减 | 日比(%) | 名次 会员间挤 | 净空車 | 增减 | 日比(%) | | i | 前5名台计 | 86,094.00 | 8,317.00 | 18.82 | -- 前5名台计 | 21,783.00 | 1,280.00 | 4.76 | | -- | 前10名合计 | 116.513.00 | 7.206.00 | 25.46 | -- 前10名合计 | 30,273.00 | 1.714.00 | 6.62 | | -- | 前20名合计 | 135,888.00 | 8,499.00 | 29.70 | -- 前20名合计 | 34,993.00 | 2,505.00 | 7.65 | | | 1 中财期货 | 27.60 ...

| 贵金属日评20250521:以色列或打击伊朗核设施,日本央行缩表致国债难卖 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-05-20 | 2025-05-19 | 2025-05-14 | 收盘价 | 761.72 | 754. 38 | 755. 86 | -7.34 | -1. 48 | | | | | 成交量 | 268945.00 | -85, 354. 00 | -228,591.00 | 354299.00 | 497536.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | 211353.00 | 209904.00 | 214778.00 | -3, 425.00 | 1, 449. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 17238.00 | 17238.00 | 17238.00 | 0. 00 | 0. 00 | 上海黄金 | 收盘价 | 7 ...

·FXStreet：多重利多因素推动黄金反弹预计金价将延续反弹趋势 【机构分析】 ·混沌天成期货表示，美元指数再次下破100的关键位置，美债和美股也出现了一定程度的下跌，在地缘 的进一步驱动下贵金属明显抬升。主要主权国家的长期债券伴随着供应增加和需求转弱都遭遇到了利率 上行的问题，这个一定程度上增加了市场风险，削弱了货币信用从而支撑贵金属的上行，特别是黄金。 此外，地缘形势仍不容忽视，这对贵金属利好。现阶段，市场消息面影响较大，恐慌情绪暂时被抑制但 未完全消散，市场的波动性仍较大，风险仍保持并支撑贵金属走势。 ·金瑞期货表示，近期美国经济软数据走弱，美国贸易谈判暂无新的进展，地缘方面俄乌谈判无果，且 美国再次被下调主权信用评级，各方面利多因素再次发酵，贵金属转向偏强。且中长期来看，市场关税 对经济的潜在负面影响并未解除，黄金的避险多头逻辑依然存在，叠加各国央行存在持续买入需求，预 计价格仍有上行空间。若后续美国经济出现实质性走弱信号可能引发避险情绪反复，为贵金属价格提供 新的上行动力。综合来看，预计贵金属价格将在政策信号与宏观数据公布的影响下偏强震荡。 ·混沌天成期货：恐慌情绪未完全消散贵金属显著回升 ·金瑞 ...

贵金属日报：持续震荡 中长期维持看涨 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年5月21日 【行情回顾】 周二贵金属价格明显上涨，周边美指回落，10Y美债收益率走高，美股微跌欧股上涨。据媒体报道，美 国情报部门发现，以色列正准备袭击伊朗，推升周三亚盘早盘时段伦敦金一度升破3300关口，原油亦大 涨。最终黄金2506合约收报3292.6美元/盎司，+1.83%；美白银2507合约收报于33.26美元/盎司， +2.32%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合约收报754.38元/克，+0.48%；SHFE白银2506合约收8074元/千 克，-0.21%。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为94.7%，降息25个基点的概率为 5.3%；美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为70.3%，累计降息25个基点的概率为28.4%，累计降息50个基点 的概率为1.4%；美联储9月维持利率不变的概率31.3%，累计降息25个基点的概率为51.6%，累计降息50 个基点的概率为16.3%，累计降息75个基点的概率为0.8%。长线基 ...