1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk - aversion situation shows that the potential meeting between China and the US may ease trade - war risks, while the risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, with weak employment and moderate inflation, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts is being realized [1]. - In terms of the safe - haven attribute, the China - US trade negotiations have reached a preliminary consensus, with Trump being optimistic and China being cautious. Trump has cancelled his meeting with Putin and complained about the deadlock in negotiations [1]. - Regarding the monetary attribute, the US consumer price increase in September was slightly lower than expected. The Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet in the coming months, and the market expects a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in October with a probability of over 90%, and about 2 more cuts within the year [1]. - From the perspective of the commodity attribute, the CRB commodity index is oscillating downward, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will show short - term weak oscillations, medium - term high - level oscillations, and long - term step - up trends [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals oscillated downward, with the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closing down 4.20% and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closing down 3.32% [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. With the Fed's decision and China - US talks this week, risk management is recommended [2]. - **Data Summary**: International gold prices (Comex and London) and domestic gold prices (Shanghai gold futures and gold T + D) all declined. The positions of Comex gold and Shanghai gold futures decreased, while the positions of gold T + D increased. Some inventories decreased slightly [2]. Silver - **Market - related Factors**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver slightly decreased [5]. - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Risk management is necessary during the Fed's decision and China - US talks [6]. - **Data Summary**: International and domestic silver prices declined. The positions of Comex silver and Shanghai silver futures decreased, while the positions of silver T + D increased. Inventories generally decreased [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute**: The federal funds target rate, discount rate, and reserve balance rate all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets decreased slightly. There were changes in inflation, economic growth, labor market, real - estate market, consumption, industrial, trade, and economic - survey indicators [8][10]. - **Safe - haven Attribute**: The geopolitical risk index increased by 30.89% compared to the previous day and 69.51% compared to the previous week, while the VIX index decreased by 10.97% compared to the previous week [12]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index decreased by 0.48% compared to the previous day but increased by 2.08% compared to the previous week. The offshore RMB exchange rate changed slightly [12]. - **Fed's Interest - rate Expectations**: The market has different expectations for the Fed's interest - rate levels in different periods from October 2025 to September 2027 [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Although in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals, in the short term, they are in an adjustment phase. Investors should look for mid - term opportunities to buy on dips and hold existing long positions cautiously. The resistance levels for London gold are 4000 and 4150, and the support is lowered to the 3800 - 3850 area. For silver, the resistance levels are 48 and 50 - 50.5, and the support is 46 [5]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Market Review On Monday, precious metal prices declined as the easing of global trade tensions boosted market risk appetite. The US dollar index fluctuated, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell, and European and American stock indexes, Bitcoin, the South China Non - ferrous Metals Index, and crude oil showed various trends. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3997 per ounce, down 3.4%; US silver 2512 contract closed at $46.83 per ounce, down 3.61%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 934.14 yuan per gram, down 1.24%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11394 yuan per kilogram, down 0.47% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings Interest rate cut expectations were generally stable. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October was 2.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut was 97.3%. For December, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut was 4.6%, a 50 - basis - point cut was 95.3%, and a 75 - basis - point cut was 0%. For January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut was 2.3%, a 50 - basis - point cut was 48.1%, and a 75 - basis - point cut was 49.6%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 8.01 tons to 1038.94 tons, and iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 79.02 tons to 15340.79 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 17.3 tons to 647.6 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 145.4 tons to 905.2 tons in the week ending October 17 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus In terms of data, focus on the preliminary value of the US Q3 GDP on Thursday and the US September PCE data on Friday. For events, pay attention to the Fed FOMC's interest rate decision at 02:00 on Thursday, Fed Chairman Powell's press conference at 02:30, and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision at 21:15 on Thursday. Also, focus on the APEC Leaders' Summit in South Korea, US President Trump's visits to Japan (until October 29) and South Korea [4]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Data - **Precious Metal Futures and Spot Prices**: SHFE gold main contract was at 934.14 yuan per gram, down 0.42%; SGX gold TD was at 930.29 yuan per gram, down 0.54%; CME gold main contract was at $3997 per ounce, down 3.15%. SHFE silver main contract was at 11394 yuan per kilogram, up 0.55%; SGX silver TD was at 11345 yuan per kilogram, up 0.25%; CME silver main contract was at $46.83 per ounce, down 3.26% [6][7]. - **Inventory and Position Data**: SHFE gold inventory was 87015 kilograms (unchanged), CME gold inventory was 1203.3159 tons, down 0.49%; SHFE gold position was 180815 lots, down 2.69%; SPDR gold position was 1038.92 tons, down 0.77%. SHFE silver inventory was 647.643 tons, down 2.61%; CME silver inventory was 15320.2554 tons, down 0.88%; SGX silver inventory was 905.235 tons, down 13.84%; SHFE silver position was 341694 lots, down 6.63%; SLV silver position was 15340.794278 tons, down 0.51% [12]. 3.5 Other Market Data The US dollar index was at 98.8157, down 0.12%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was at 7.1091, down 0.16%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 47544.59 points, up 0.71%; WTI crude oil spot was at $61.31 per barrel, down 0.31%; LmeS copper 03 was at $11000.5 per ton, up 0.49%; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.01%, down 0.25%; the 10 - year US real interest rate was 1.73% (unchanged); the 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread was 0.53%, down 1.85% [17].

今日贵金属延续调整。周五美国公布9月CPI和核心CPI均为3%略低于预期,市场维持年内再降息两次预期, 本周降息板上钉钉，关注鲍威尔讲话指引，不排除宣布停止缩表。中美结束新一轮贸易谈判,双方就稳妥解 决多项重要经贸议题形成初步共识,美国财长贝森特在接受美媒采访时表示不再考虑对中国加征100%的关 税。贵金属中长期上涨逻辑稳固,短期风险偏好有所向好,技术面严重超买正在修复,可能形成月线级别的 调整,构建震荡平台为进一步走向提供基础,建议暂时观望等待参与机会。本周聚焦美联储议息会议和APEG 领导人峰会消息指引，此外关注美国政府停摆问题能否得到解决。 ★美国CPI—(1)美国劳工部数据称,美国9月 CPI同比上涨3.0%,环比上涨0.3%,核心CPI同比上涨3.0%,环 比上涨0.2%。②美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特:数据"非常出色"，通胀正在放缓，美联储压力减 轻。③美国白宫:下个月可能无法公布通胀数据,为史上首次。 ★贸易协议——1美国与泰国签署关键矿物协议,并将维持对泰国19%的关税;②特朗普与巴西总统会晤,双 方将进行经贸谈判,巴方要求在谈判过程中暂停关税;3美国与马来西亚签署贸易协议和关键矿产协议; ...

| Million | >国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月27日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属延续调整。周五美国公布9月CPI和核心CPI均为3%略低于预期,市场维持年内再降息两次预期, 本周降息板上钉钉，关注鲍威尔讲话指引，不排除宣布停止缩表。中美结束新一轮贸易谈判,双方就稳妥解 决多项重要经贸议题形成初步共识,美国财长贝森特在接受美媒采访时表示不再考虑对中国加征100%的关 税。贵金属中长期上涨逻辑稳固,短期风险偏好有所向好,技术面严重超买正在修复,可能形成月线级别的 调整,构建震荡平台为进一步走向提供基础,建议暂时观望等待参与机会。本周聚焦美联储议息会议和APEG 领导人峰会消息指引，此外关注美国政府停摆问题能否得到解决。 ★美国 ...

研究所 贵金属研发报告 研究所副所长：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询号：Z0017510 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询号：Z0021675 贵金属衍生品日报 2025 年 10 月 27 日 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 邮箱： wangluchen_qh@chinastock.co m.cn 贵金属衍生品日报 【市场回顾】 1.贵金属市场: 今天白天，贵金属窄幅波动，伦敦金当前交投于 4078 美元附 近，伦敦银当前交投于 48.3 美元附近。受外盘驱动，沪金最终收跌 1.24%，报 934.14 元/克; 沪银主力合约最终收跌 0.47%，报 11394 元/千克。 2.美元指数: 美元指数小幅走高，当前交投于 98.92 附近。 3.美债收益率:10 年美债收益率同样走高，当前交投于 4.04%附近。 4.人民币汇率:人民币兑美元高开高走，当前交投于 7.11 附近。 【重要资讯】 1.中美贸易谈判：新华社消息，当地时间 10 月 25 日至 26 日，中美经贸中方 牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to the mixed influence of factors such as inflation data, economic indicators, and geopolitical events, precious metals are expected to show a volatile trend. It is recommended to pay attention to events like the Fed's October interest - rate decision, China - US economic and trade negotiations, and whether there will be a meeting between the Chinese and US presidents at the APEC Summit. For silver, the progress of physical silver in London should be continuously monitored [6]. - In the long - term, factors such as potential Fed rate cuts, global geopolitical uncertainties, unsustainable US debt, and intensified great - power competition will increase the credit risk of the US dollar. With the continuation of central bank gold purchases, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to move upward. Long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [6]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries 3.1 Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On October 24, 2025, compared with October 23, London gold spot price dropped 0.5% to $4091.85 per ounce, London silver spot price fell 1.7% to $48.30 per ounce. COMEX gold price decreased 0.5% to $4107.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver price declined 1.1% to $47.99 per ounce. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also showed varying degrees of decline [5]. - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: The gold TD - SHFE active price spread increased 32.2% to - 1.97 yuan/gram, and the silver TD - SHFE active price spread rose 5.0% to - 21 yuan/kg. The gold and silver price ratios of SHFE and COMEX also showed slight increases [5]. 3.2 Position Data - **ETF Holdings**: On October 24, 2025, compared with October 23, the gold ETF - SPDR holdings decreased 0.52% to 1046.93 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV holdings dropped 0.32% to 15419.8141 tons [5]. - **COMEX Non - commercial Positions**: The non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold increased 1.85% to 332808 contracts, and the non - commercial short positions increased 9.43% to 66059 contracts. For COMEX silver, the non - commercial long positions rose 0.97% to 72318 contracts, and the non - commercial short positions decreased 0.21% to 20042 contracts [5]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **SHFE Inventories**: On October 24, 2025, compared with October 23, the SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 87015 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory increased 0.24% to 664971 kg [5]. - **COMEX Inventories**: The COMEX gold inventory decreased 0.21% to 38877087 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory declined 0.21% to 496946989 troy ounces [5]. 3.4 Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: On October 24, 2025, compared with October 23, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased 0.01% to 7.09, the US dollar index rose 0.01% to 98.94, the 2 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged at 3.48%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased 0.25% to 4.02% [5]. - **Stock Market and Commodity Market**: The VIX index decreased 5.38% to 16.37, the S&P 500 index rose 0.79% to 6791.69, and the NYMEX crude oil price decreased 0.50% to $61.44 per barrel [5]. 3.5 Market Review - On October 24, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.43% to 938.1 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures fell 0.15% to 11332 yuan/kg [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View of the Report - The U.S. September CPI data was slightly lower than expected, the U.S. government shutdown was about to end, the Sino - U.S. trade situation eased, and the shortage of London silver spot was alleviated, leading to a correction in precious metal prices. The market has differences in the expected interest - rate cut amplitude this year, and the expected end - point of this round of interest - rate cuts has been lowered compared with the previous period. Fed meeting minutes showed that most officials thought it might be appropriate to further ease policies this year. Trump's influence on the Fed's independence emerged, and the U.S. employment situation slowed down. Powell said that the changing economic risks gave the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates, and the impact of tariffs on consumer prices was unlikely to be sustained. The U.S. economic data showed a downward trend, and the market was worried about the U.S. fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Supported by interest - rate cut expectations and risk - aversion sentiment, the medium - term prices of precious metals are expected to remain supported, while they are still in an adjustment state in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision to be announced this Thursday [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - U.S. September CPI data was slightly lower than expected, the U.S. government shutdown was about to end, the Sino - U.S. trade situation eased, leading to a correction in the price of U.S. gold. As of last Friday, U.S. gold closed at $4127 per ounce, down 3.3% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4250, and the lower support level is $4050 [6]. - U.S. September CPI data was slightly lower than expected, the U.S. government shutdown was about to end, the Sino - U.S. trade situation eased, and the shortage of London silver spot was alleviated, leading to a correction in the price of U.S. silver. As of last Friday, it had a weekly decline of 4.4%, closing at $48.4 per ounce. The lower support level is $47, and the upper resistance level is $50 [9]. 2. Weekly View - The U.S. September CPI data was slightly lower than expected, the U.S. government shutdown was about to end, and the shortage of London silver spot was alleviated, leading to a correction in precious metal prices. The market has differences in the expected interest - rate cut amplitude this year, and the expected end - point of this round of interest - rate cuts has been lowered compared with the previous period. The Fed meeting minutes showed that most officials thought it might be appropriate to further ease policies this year. Trump's influence on the Fed's independence emerged, and the U.S. employment situation slowed down. Powell said that the changing economic risks gave the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates, and the impact of tariffs on consumer prices was unlikely to be sustained. The U.S. economic data showed a downward trend, and the market was worried about the U.S. fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Supported by interest - rate cut expectations and risk - aversion sentiment, the medium - term prices of precious metals are expected to remain supported, while they are still in an adjustment state in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision to be announced this Thursday [11]. - In terms of inventory, this week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 7,154.16 kg to 1,209,213.47 kg, and the SHFE gold inventory increased by 2,409 kg to 87,015 kg. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 389,177.34 kg to 15,456,790.67 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 255,132 kg to 664,971 kg. This week, the net long positions of gold CFTC speculative funds were 259,261 contracts, an increase of 3,182 contracts compared with last week. The net long positions of silver CFTC speculative funds were 49,507 contracts, an increase of 729 contracts compared with last week. It is recommended to trade cautiously and within a range, with the reference operating range of SHFE gold contract 12 being 920 - 970, and that of SHFE silver contract 12 being 10900 - 11700 [13]. 3. Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data and trends of indicators such as the euro - dollar exchange rate, pound - dollar exchange rate, U.S. dollar index, real interest rate (10 - year TIPS yield), inflation expectations (10Y), yield spread (10Y - 2Y), U.S. Treasury bond yields (10 - year and 2 - year), Fed balance sheet size, gold - silver ratio, and WTI crude oil futures price trends through charts, but no specific analysis is provided [15][17][19][21]. 4. Important Economic Data of the Week - The U.S. September CPI annual rate unadjusted was 3%, the previous value was 2.9%. The U.S. September core CPI annual rate unadjusted was 3%, the expected value was 3.1%, and the previous value was 3.1% [23]. 5. Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - The plan for a summit between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin on Tuesday was shelved because Moscow rejected the proposal of an immediate cease - fire in Ukraine, casting a shadow over the negotiation prospects. A senior White House official said that "President Trump has no plans to meet with President Putin in the near future." Previously, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio had a "productive call" with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, but they decided not to hold a face - to - face meeting. Sources said that Russia restated the conditions for a peace agreement with Ukraine in a private communication sent to the U.S. over the weekend, effectively negating Trump's current proposal. - The Sino - U.S. negotiations in Kuala Lumpur discussed important economic and trade issues of common concern such as the U.S. 301 measures against China's maritime logistics and shipbuilding industries, the extension of the suspension period of reciprocal tariffs, fentanyl tariffs and law - enforcement cooperation, agricultural product trade, and export controls. The two sides reached a basic consensus on arrangements to address each other's concerns, agreed to further determine specific details, and fulfill their respective domestic approval procedures [24]. 6. Inventory - The COMEX gold inventory decreased by 7,154.16 kg to 1,209,213.47 kg, and the SHFE gold inventory increased by 2,409 kg to 87,015 kg. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 389,177.34 kg to 15,456,790.67 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 255,132 kg to 664,971 kg [13][29]. 7. Fund Holdings - As of September 23, the net long positions of gold CFTC speculative funds were 259,261 contracts, an increase of 3,182 contracts compared with last week. The net long positions of silver CFTC speculative funds were 49,507 contracts, an increase of 729 contracts compared with last week [13][33]. 8. Key Points to Watch This Week - On Thursday (October 30) at 20:30, the initial value of the annualized quarterly rate of the U.S. real GDP in the third quarter will be released. - On Friday (October 31) at 20:30, the annual rate of the U.S. September PCE price index and the monthly rate of U.S. September personal spending will be released [35].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 避险降温，贵金属调整 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 国贸期货 宏观金融研究中心 2025-10-27 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 周度观点摘要 | 黄金相关数据指标跟踪 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 单位 | 本期 | 上一期 | 周度变化 | 周度涨跌幅 | | 伦敦现货黄金 | 美元/盎司 | 4111.555 | 4251.448 | -139.893 | -3.29% | | 沪金主力 | 元/克 | 938.10 | 999.80 | -61.7 | -6.17% | | 基差（TD-期货，取15点整价格） | 元/克 | -1.97 | -2.8 | 0.83 | -29.64% | | 内外价差（TD-伦敦，取15点整价格） | 元/克 | -1.15 | -2.48 | 1.33 | -53.63% | | 黄金SPDR ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook despite challenges in the gold market in 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The gold market is expected to present both opportunities and challenges for banks, with a trend towards deepening precious metal business driven by central bank purchases [1][2]. - The demand for gold bars and coins has increased significantly, reflecting a growing need for gold as a hedge and store of value among residents [4]. - The establishment of a market-making system for gold trading is anticipated to enhance market liquidity and stability, positioning listed banks as key players [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy and Market Environment - As of September 2025, China's official gold reserves reached 74.06 million ounces, marking an increase for 11 consecutive months [2]. - In Q2 2025, global central banks added 166 tons of gold to their reserves, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting further increases in the next 12 months [2]. - New policies allowing insurance funds to invest in gold are expected to create new opportunities for banks to provide services to insurance institutions, enhancing their intermediary income [2]. 2. Business Dynamics and Revenue Contribution - In the first half of 2025, China's gold consumption was 505.205 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.54%, with significant growth in gold bar and coin consumption by 23.69% [4]. - The decline in gold jewelry consumption is prompting banks to shift focus from traditional jewelry sales to investment-oriented precious metal businesses [4]. - The growth in investment demand for gold bars and coins is expected to stabilize income from investment-related businesses, enhancing the profitability of the precious metals segment for banks [4]. 3. Industry Trends - The report highlights a structural shift in gold consumption, with investment demand rising while jewelry demand declines, indicating a need for banks to adapt their business strategies [4]. - The performance of the banking sector is expected to benefit from expansionary policies aimed at stabilizing the economy, with specific banks like Ningbo Bank and Jiangsu Bank recommended for investment due to positive fundamental changes [8]. 4. Key Data Tracking - The report includes various financial metrics, such as average daily trading volume and margin financing balances, which are essential for assessing market conditions [9][10].

Core Insights - The "2025 Xiangmi Lake Wealth Management Week" successfully concluded, focusing on investment opportunities in precious metals amid current global economic fluctuations [1][3] - The forum emphasized the importance of understanding market cycles and future positioning, with insights from industry experts on the trends affecting gold and silver prices [3][5] Group 1: Market Trends and Analysis - The chief economist from Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund highlighted the slowing economic growth in Europe and the US, the potential for a renewed interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve, and the resulting upward pressure on gold prices due to a declining dollar index and an appreciating RMB [3][5] - The precious metals market is undergoing structural changes, with platinum benefiting from the rise of hydrogen energy, while traditional metals like palladium face challenges from new energy alternatives [5] - The chief analyst from Ping An Futures noted that recent price adjustments in gold and silver are primarily due to short-term market sentiment, but the long-term value drivers remain intact, particularly with the Fed's shift towards a looser monetary policy [5][6] Group 2: Investment Strategies and Tools - Ping An Futures aims to provide comprehensive market analysis and investment strategies, offering diverse risk management and asset allocation tools, including futures and options, to help clients navigate complex market conditions [6] - The company emphasizes a customer-centric approach, responding to the evolving wealth management needs of residents by creating a digital financial service platform that supports research, trading, and risk management [6] - The forum coincided with a significant increase in asset management scale in Shenzhen, which has surpassed 31 trillion yuan, positioning the city as a competitive financial center alongside Hong Kong and Singapore [7]