交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2026年2月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：逢低买入推动美股周五反弹，金价回升；美国三大股指全线收跌，欧洲 三大股指收盘全线下跌；美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收益率涨2.99个基点报 4.206%；美元指数跌0.36%报97.61离岸人民币对美元升值报6.9298；COMEX黄金期货 涨2.03%报4988.60美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货1090.12，现货1086.04，基差-4.08，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单104052 千克，不变；偏空 6、预期：今日关注欧央行行长及美联储委员讲话、欧元区2月Senti ...

Market Performance - Japanese Nikkei 225 index increased by 5% to 57,095.65, while the South Korean KOSPI index rose over 4% to 5,304.93 [1][2] - The Australian S&P 200 index saw a modest increase of 0.45%, closing at 8,850.20, and the Indian market rose by 0.32% to 83,580.40 [2] Precious Metals - Spot gold prices rose to approximately $5,000 per ounce, while spot silver prices surpassed $80 per ounce [1] - London gold and silver prices increased by 1.03% and 2.66%, respectively, with gold at $5,017.534 and silver at $79.851 [3] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.37% to $4,998.2, while COMEX silver futures increased by over 4% to $80.13 [3] Market Trends and Analysis - The international precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility, with both gold and silver showing sharp price fluctuations [8] - Research from Zhengxin Futures indicates high uncertainty in the market, suggesting a cautious approach, while maintaining a long-term bullish outlook on precious metals due to geopolitical tensions and central bank purchases [8] - China Galaxy Securities notes that the market may continue to experience a consolidation phase, with attention on the U.S. January CPI data to gauge inflation persistence and adjust Federal Reserve policy expectations [8] - The core logic for gold's long-term bullish trend has shifted from short-term interest rate speculation to hedging against long-term dollar credit risks and global monetary system restructuring [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent rise in gold prices above $5000 is primarily driven by the rebound in silver prices, which have increased over 20% from a low of $64 to nearly $81 [1] - The previous decline in gold prices was attributed to a cleansing of profit-taking, while the initial rise was linked to a loss of confidence in the US dollar [1] - The current market sentiment suggests that the logic supporting weak dollar conditions is no longer recognized by investors, making it difficult for precious metals to reach previous peak levels [1] Group 2 - The outlook for gold prices above $5000 is cautious, with increasing pressure for further upward movement, indicating limited short-term potential for price increases [1] - The new market conditions suggest that gold should be viewed as a gradual selling opportunity above $5000, rather than a buying point [3] - If gold prices were to decline to around $4500, it could present a buying opportunity for investors [3]

贵金属有所反弹。此前贵金属巨震，主要受美联储主席提名和资金踩踏两方面因素影响：1月30日特朗 普宣布提名凯文·沃什为下一任联储主席，沃什的传统鹰派立场以及缩表主张，导致降息预期降温，同 时市场对美联储独立性担忧缓解，带动美元指数明显回升。1月以来贵金属快速上涨，波动率已处于高 位，沃什获提名成为触发因素，引发大量资金获利了结。从长期角度来看， 黄金上行的支撑因素并未 发生逆转，央行继续增持黄金，待市场充分调整，新的利多因素积聚后，预计黄金仍将重回稳步上行通 道。由于 白银的波动性大于黄金，且目前金银比仍处于相对低位，建议投资者暂时观望。 ...

2026.02. 09 本文字数：186，阅读时长大约1分钟 现货黄金突破5040美元/盎司，日内涨1.5%。 现货白银突破80美元/盎司，日内涨2.84%。 第 一 财 经 持 续 追 踪 财 经 热 点 。 若 您 掌 握 公 司 动 态 、 行 业 趋 势 、 金 融 事 件 等 有 价 值 的 线 索 ， 欢 迎 提 供 。 专 用 邮 箱 ： bianjibu@yicai.com （注：我们会对线索进行核实。您的隐私将严格保密。） 推荐阅读 京东公开001号快递员的退休生活：无锡有房，存款一百多万 10 0 P 11 0 te stime 8 16 0 p mbcch # 微信编辑 | 夏木 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a dramatic turnaround on February 7, 2026, with gold prices rising by 3.98% to $4966.61 per ounce and silver surging by 9.7% to $77.78 per ounce, following a period of significant declines just days prior [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent price surge is characterized as a "V-shaped" recovery, reversing a prior panic-induced drop where gold fell over 12% and silver plummeted 36% within a week [3][4]. - The rapid recovery has ignited market sentiment, leading to an influx of safe-haven and bargain-hunting capital, resulting in widespread gains across the precious metals market [3][4]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have heightened market anxiety, prompting investors to seek refuge in gold and silver as traditional safe-haven assets [4]. - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair initially caused market panic due to his hawkish stance on monetary policy, which was a key factor in the previous price declines [4][5]. - As market sentiment stabilized, expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve emerged, leading to a decline in the dollar index and benefiting gold and silver prices [5]. - Technical corrections also played a role, as the previous sharp declines led to a situation of "severe overselling," prompting a rebound as traders covered short positions [5][6]. Group 3: Market Participants - The rebound was driven by three main types of capital: 1. Safe-haven funds that prioritize security over high returns, which flowed into gold during geopolitical tensions [7]. 2. Central bank reserves, which have been increasing their gold holdings as part of a long-term strategy for diversification and security [7]. 3. Speculative funds that identified the price drop as an opportunity for profit, particularly in silver due to its higher volatility [7][8]. Group 4: Price Behavior and Consumer Impact - Silver's price volatility is significantly greater than that of gold, influenced by both investment sentiment and industrial demand, leading to larger price swings during market fluctuations [8][9]. - The disparity between international gold prices and local retail prices in China highlights the difference between gold as an investment and as a consumer product, with retail prices declining due to seasonal demand factors [9][10]. - The increased market volatility has raised the risks associated with high-leverage trading, emphasizing the importance of position control for investors [10].

Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market, particularly gold and silver, has experienced extreme volatility in early 2026, driven by investor sentiment rather than fundamental changes in supply and demand [1] Group 1: Market Performance - After the Federal Reserve's January meeting, gold prices surged to nearly $5,600 per ounce and silver prices reached $121.647 per ounce, both hitting historical highs [1] - However, on January 30, London gold saw its largest single-day drop in 40 years, and on January 31, spot silver experienced a single-day decline exceeding 35%, marking its largest drop ever [1] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Amid the market fluctuations, some investors queued at physical gold stores to sell their gold, while others faced significant losses from investing in silver funds at peak prices [1] - A private equity investor focused on precious metals noted that the fundamental conditions for precious metals had not changed significantly in the past couple of months, indicating that the price volatility was primarily due to drastic shifts in investor sentiment [1] Group 3: Market Analysis - Liu Shiyao, a precious metals researcher at Zijin Tianfeng Futures, stated that the supply-demand fundamentals and overall macro environment for precious metals had not shown substantial changes to justify the recent sharp declines [1] - The current emotional sell-off in the market presents a window for rational investors to reassess their positions, suggesting that once market panic subsides and stability returns, investors may consider gradually positioning themselves to seize quality opportunities under unchanged core long-term logic [1]

来源：@央视财经微博 【#中国黄金提示理性投资黄金##中国黄金调整回购业务规则#】近日，中国黄金发布公告指出，近期受 多重因素影响，贵金属价格波动显著加剧，不确定性持续上升。公司提示广大消费者理性看待贵金属市 场波动，提高风险防范意识，理性投资黄金。自2026年2月7日起，在周六、周日及法定节假日等上海黄 金交易所非交易日期间，暂停办理贵金属回购业务。自2026年2月7日起，在业务办理时间内，对回购业 务实施限额管理，包括但不限于单一客户单日累计回购上限、单笔回购总量上限等，并实施预约制。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, China Gold Group, announced that it will suspend precious metal repurchase services during non-trading days starting February 7, 2026, due to significant price volatility in the precious metals market [1][12]. Group 1: Business Adjustments - Starting February 7, 2026, China Gold will halt precious metal repurchase services on weekends and public holidays when the Shanghai Gold Exchange is closed [1][12]. - The company will implement limit management on repurchase transactions during business hours, including daily repurchase limits per customer and total transaction limits, with a reservation system in place [2][9]. - Other companies, such as Cai Bai Jewelry, will also adjust their precious metal repurchase services similarly, indicating a broader industry trend [9][17]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Precious metal prices have experienced significant fluctuations, with international gold prices rising nearly 15% and silver prices over 8% since the beginning of the year [6][15]. - On February 6, 2026, gold prices saw a drop of over 2% before rebounding to above $4,950 per ounce, while silver prices dropped nearly 10% before recovering to above $77 per ounce [6][15]. - The trading sentiment in the precious metals market has shifted from risk aversion to speculation, increasing trading volatility and valuation risks [18]. Group 3: Company Performance - China Gold's stock price has shown significant volatility, peaking at 14.85 yuan per share on January 30, 2026, a 77.21% increase from 8.38 yuan on January 22, 2026, before falling to 11.42 yuan by February 6, 2026, a decline of 23.1% from the peak [6][15]. - The company has been increasing its gold reserves, reporting 7,419 million ounces at the end of January 2026, up from 7,415 million ounces at the end of December 2025, marking the 15th consecutive month of increases [10][18].

Group 1: Ukraine Conflict and Energy Infrastructure - Ukrainian President Zelensky reported that on February 7, Russian forces launched an attack using over 400 drones and approximately 40 missiles targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure, including power grids and substations [1] - The attack caused damage in several regions, including Volyn, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, and Rivne, with ongoing rescue and repair efforts in areas where security conditions allow [1] - Ukraine's nuclear power plants have reduced output, and emergency rolling blackouts are being implemented across the country due to the attacks on key energy facilities [1][3] Group 2: Russian Military Actions - The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that over the past 24 hours, Russian forces conducted large-scale strikes on Ukrainian military energy and transportation infrastructure, utilizing precision weapons including the "Dagger" hypersonic missile [3] - Ukrainian Air Force reported that from the evening of February 6 to the early morning of February 7, Russian forces launched a significant airstrike involving 39 missiles and 408 drones against critical infrastructure [3] Group 3: Poland's Military Readiness - In response to the ongoing Russian attacks on Ukraine, Poland has activated its military aviation forces, and ground air defense systems and radar reconnaissance systems are on high alert, with temporary closures of two airports in eastern Poland [1]