Core Insights - Corporate profits are stable, with S&P 500 net profit margins above the 5-year average for six consecutive quarters, and analysts expect this trend to continue into next year [1][3] Earnings Performance - The earnings season has been solid, particularly for financials and money center banks, driven by trading and investment banking [3] - Industrial companies are reporting strong earnings, supported by demand for AI infrastructure [3] - Tech earnings are anticipated to be a significant market driver this week, with high expectations set [4][5] Market Reactions - Recent earnings reports, such as those from GE Vernova, showed volatility, with stocks initially gapping up but then selling off sharply before stabilizing [8] - Market positioning and options trading are influencing stock movements at both individual and index levels [8] Economic Indicators - There are shifting expectations regarding China and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, which could impact market dynamics [4][10] - The removal of trade-related overhangs is allowing markets to focus on earnings rather than trade headlines [11][12] Consumer Behavior - The economy is holding up well, with a K-shaped recovery observed; higher-income consumers are faring better than lower-income consumers, who are struggling with inflation [16] - There is caution in hiring, but mass layoffs are not being reported [16] Federal Reserve Outlook - A 25 basis point rate cut is largely expected, with discussions around the end of quantitative tightening (QT) gaining traction [17][18] - Markets are pricing in further rate cuts, with expectations for a third cut in January being slightly better than a coin flip [20]

Core Points - The United States and Thailand announced a reciprocal trade framework agreement, maintaining a 19% tariff on Thai products while identifying categories for potential tariff adjustments or reductions to zero [1] - Thailand will eliminate tariff barriers on approximately 99% of goods, including various industrial products, food, and agricultural products from the United States [1] - Thailand is committed to removing obstacles to U.S. product exports, including the acceptance of American-made automobiles [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is anticipated to finalize a new trade agreement with China this week, leading to a rally in U.S. stocks [1] Group 1 - The expected trade agreement is likely to have a positive impact on market sentiment, contributing to the rise in U.S. stock prices [1]

周一，黄金继续下跌，延续了自八月中旬以来首次周度收跌的势头。 截止周一美盘，金价大跌近3%，并失守4000美元大关，日内跌超100美元，交易员们乐观地认为一些曾支撑贵金属价格的经济风险和地缘政治紧张局势已经 缓解。 本周将是各国央行密集公布利率决议的一周，美联储、欧洲央行和日本央行都将做出利率决定。市场预测美联储将降息25个基点，而欧洲央行和日本央行预 计将维持利率不变。三菱日联分析师Soojin Kim表示，这些央行进一步放松货币政策可能会为黄金等无息资产提供新的支持。 与此同时，近1000名专业的黄金交易员、经纪商和精炼商齐聚日本，参加由伦敦金银市场协会举办的会议。这场于上周日开始的盛会出席人数创下历史新 高，而黄金交易员之间日益激烈的人才争夺战很可能成为热门话题。 世界黄金协会的市场策略师John Reade在该活动上表示，央行的需求已不像以前那么强劲，专业交易员可能乐于见到一次更深度的回调。 他援引在会议上的交谈称，有人认为每盎司3500美元的价位"对黄金市场来说是健康的，因为这仍然是一个高得离谱的价格。" 瑞银分析师Giovanni Staunovo表示："可能达成的贸易协议正在支撑风险资产并打压黄 ...

今日贵金属延续调整。周五美国公布9月CPI和核心CPI均为3%略低于预期,市场维持年内再降息两次预期, 本周降息板上钉钉，关注鲍威尔讲话指引，不排除宣布停止缩表。中美结束新一轮贸易谈判,双方就稳妥解 决多项重要经贸议题形成初步共识,美国财长贝森特在接受美媒采访时表示不再考虑对中国加征100%的关 税。贵金属中长期上涨逻辑稳固,短期风险偏好有所向好,技术面严重超买正在修复,可能形成月线级别的 调整,构建震荡平台为进一步走向提供基础,建议暂时观望等待参与机会。本周聚焦美联储议息会议和APEG 领导人峰会消息指引，此外关注美国政府停摆问题能否得到解决。 ★美国CPI—(1)美国劳工部数据称,美国9月 CPI同比上涨3.0%,环比上涨0.3%,核心CPI同比上涨3.0%,环 比上涨0.2%。②美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特:数据"非常出色"，通胀正在放缓，美联储压力减 轻。③美国白宫:下个月可能无法公布通胀数据,为史上首次。 ★贸易协议——1美国与泰国签署关键矿物协议,并将维持对泰国19%的关税;②特朗普与巴西总统会晤,双 方将进行经贸谈判,巴方要求在谈判过程中暂停关税;3美国与马来西亚签署贸易协议和关键矿产协议; ...

Group 1 - US stock index futures rose in early Asian trading due to positive news regarding a comprehensive trade agreement between the US and China [1][3] - S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures increased by 0.7% and 0.9% respectively, while major Asia-Pacific markets also saw gains [3] - On October 24, US stock markets continued their upward trend, with the S&P 500 closing up 0.8% and the Nasdaq rising 1%, both reaching new closing highs [3] Group 2 - Currency markets showed mixed results, with Australian and New Zealand dollars slightly rising, while the US dollar's performance varied against other major currencies [3] - Analysts remain cautious despite the optimistic market sentiment, with some suggesting that the current situation reflects a cooling rather than a fundamental improvement [3][4] - This week is critical for the market as central bank policies and US corporate earnings season converge, potentially leading to market volatility [4]

Market Overview - Asian stocks surged as easing trade tensions between China and the US improved risk appetite, with significant gains in South Korea's KOSPI, Taiwan stocks, and Japan's Nikkei, each rising over 2% [1][2] - MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares increased by 1.3% to a record peak [2] Trade Deal Implications - A potential trade deal would pause American tariffs and Chinese rare earths export controls, alleviating investor concerns [2] - Investors are looking for confirmation that the trade truce holds and that China's stimulus measures lead to tangible growth [3] Currency and Commodity Movements - The Australian dollar rose by 0.42% to $0.6541, reflecting its status as a risk and China proxy [4] - Safe-haven gold prices fell by 1%, while US Treasuries declined, resulting in a 3.8 basis points increase in the benchmark 10-year bond yield [5] Central Bank Meetings - Central bank meetings in Japan, Canada, Europe, and the US are anticipated, with the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points [6] - The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are expected to maintain current rates, with the BOJ considering future rate hikes as tariff-induced recession fears ease [7] Earnings Season Focus - The US earnings season is highlighted by reports from major companies like Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta Platforms, which are expected to show stronger results despite narrowing profit margins compared to the broader index [8] - Enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, a key area for many megacap companies, is driving stock market performance [9]

Core Points - The ongoing US-China talks in Malaysia focus on three main issues, including China's stricter rare earth export controls, which the US fears could disrupt supply chains in critical sectors like semiconductor manufacturing and defense [3] - The US aims to pressure China into relaxing these export restrictions to ensure stable raw material supplies for industries such as electric vehicles and semiconductors [3] - The US also seeks to increase Chinese imports of agricultural products like soybeans to alleviate export barriers faced by American farmers [3] - A significant goal of these talks is to prepare for a meeting between the two countries' leaders at the upcoming APEC summit in South Korea [3] Measures Taken by the US - US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin announced that if China does not lift its rare earth controls, the US will collaborate with the G7 to impose software export restrictions on China, targeting its high-tech development [4] - The US has initiated an investigation into whether China has complied with trade agreement terms signed during Trump's first term, with potential additional sanctions if non-compliance is found [7] - Starting November 1, the US plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, a measure linked to China's rare earth export controls, which could be used as leverage in negotiations [7] China's Response - China is portrayed as a responsible nation that has historically adhered to international agreements, contrasting with the US's inconsistent approach [9] - Despite the US's pressure tactics, China remains steadfast in its negotiation stance, having learned from past experiences where it made concessions that were not reciprocated by the US [9] - The US's traditional methods of negotiation, characterized by threats and tariffs, are viewed as ineffective against China, as evidenced by the reduction of a lengthy sanctions list during the talks [9] Conclusion - The resolution of US-China differences is suggested to require equal treatment and mutual benefit, rather than unilateral pressure and sanctions, as trade wars yield no winners [11]

Core Insights - Asian emerging markets' stock indices have risen to their highest levels in over four years, driven by easing trade tensions with the U.S. [1] - The Asian emerging market index increased by 1.3%, reaching its highest point since March 2021, largely propelled by technology stocks [1] - The KOSPI index in South Korea has surpassed the 4000-point mark for the first time, with the Korean won leading gains among Asian currencies [1] Market Dynamics - Recent trade agreements announced by former President Trump with several Southeast Asian countries may include tariff exemptions on key export goods from the region [1] - Massimiliano Bondurri, CEO of SGMC Capital, described the news as "constructive," suggesting that it, along with potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve later this week, will continue to boost the stock market [1] - There is an expectation of sustained optimism in the market in the coming days [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that U.S. President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva are optimistic about reaching a trade agreement soon, with high-level trade talks scheduled to take place shortly after their meeting [1][3] - Trump expressed a positive relationship with Lula and indicated a willingness to reconsider punitive tariffs imposed on Brazil due to a lawsuit against his ally Jair Bolsonaro [1][3] - The upcoming formal negotiations involve U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer and Secretary of State Marco Rubio meeting with Brazilian officials, marking a significant shift in the tone of U.S.-Brazil relations [3] Group 2 - Lula has shown openness to exploring cooperation opportunities with multiple parties, including Trump, to develop critical minerals needed for electric vehicles, advanced weapon systems, and medical equipment [3]