Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the price changes of various commodities on October 29, 2025, compared to October 28, 2025, including chemicals, agricultural products, and more. It also covers macro - economic news and provides trading strategies for different commodities and financial products based on their fundamentals and market trends [4]. - Macroeconomic news shows positive developments in China - ASEAN cooperation, potential progress in Sino - EU trade talks, and China's stance on financial opening - up and economic policies. The performance of the A - share market and international stock markets is also analyzed [7][8][20][21]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Commodity Price Changes - **Chemicals**: On October 29, 2025, among chemicals, glass had the highest increase rate of 1.348% (from 1,113.00 to 1,128.00), while crude oil had the largest decline rate of - 0.994% (from 462.70 to 458.10) [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Among agricultural products, soybean meal had the highest increase rate of 0.538% (from 2,975.00 to 2,991.00), and palm oil had the largest decline rate of - 1.496% (from 8,958.00 to 8,824.00) [4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic News - China and ASEAN signed the FTA 3.0 upgrade protocol, expanding cooperation in emerging fields [7]. - There will be a Sino - EU talk on rare earths, and China hopes for dialogue to solve trade differences [7]. - China is committed to financial opening - up, and the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy [7]. - The revised Network Security Law will take effect on January 1, 2026, and the Environmental Protection Tax Law will include volatile organic compounds in the tax scope [8]. - The number of overseas travelers for tax - free shopping and the tax - free amount in China have increased significantly this year [8]. - The 8th China International Import Expo will be held from November 5th to 10th, with an expanded scale [8]. - China's soybean area and output are expected to remain high, and the number of breeding sows has decreased [8]. - China's wholesale and retail industries have shown growth in the first three quarters [8]. - The 2025 Hurun Rich List was announced, with Zhong Shanshan becoming the richest man in China [9]. 3.3 Commodity Trading Strategies - **Agricultural Products** - **Peanuts**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 7700 - 7900, and it is recommended to wait and see [13]. - **Sugar**: Consider selling call options at high prices, with a support level at 5450 yuan/ton [13]. - **Corn**: Observe the support in the 2100 - 2120 range [14]. - **Pigs**: The near - term futures are expected to be strong, and the long - term futures will remain weak [14]. - **Eggs**: Short - sell on the futures and conduct inter - month reverse arbitrage [16]. - **Cotton**: Wait and see, and consider going long if it breaks through 13600 yuan/ton [16]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Urea**: The UR2601 contract is expected to operate in the 1580 - 1670 yuan/ton range [16]. - **Caustic Soda**: The 2601 contract is under pressure [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are expected to remain strong, with coking coal facing pressure around 1300 and coke around 1800 [16]. - **Industrial Metals** - **Copper and Aluminum**: Prices are expected to remain high, but beware of macro - risks [17]. - **Alumina**: The 2601 contract is operating at a low level [17]. - **Steel Products**: Steel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with rebar facing pressure around 3200 and hot - rolled coils around 3400 [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: They will maintain a wide - range fluctuating follow - up trend, and the industrial rebound hedging idea remains unchanged [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Adopt a bullish strategy, with a support level at 80000 and a pressure level at 84000 [19]. - **Options and Finance** - **Stock Index Futures**: Trend investors can focus on inter - variety spread arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can consider buying straddles or wide straddles after the HO volatility decline [19]. - **Stock Index**: Although the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 4000 points, there is still a need for consolidation. Pay attention to the performance of the third - quarter reports of listed companies [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for enhanced macroeconomic governance and the implementation of proactive macro policies to stabilize growth, employment, and expectations, while promoting an economy driven by domestic demand and consumption [1]. Economic Policy - The Central Committee's suggestions for the 15th Five-Year Plan highlight the importance of aligning fiscal and monetary policies, enhancing the effectiveness of policy implementation, and optimizing performance evaluations for high-quality development [1][7]. - The focus is on creating an economic development model that is more reliant on domestic demand and consumption, with a strong emphasis on counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments [1]. Commodity Market Insights Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have seen significant fluctuations, with geopolitical tensions easing and central banks increasing gold reserves as a safe-haven asset [2][19]. - The market anticipates two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, which has influenced the pricing dynamics of precious metals [2][19]. Oil Market - The oil market is affected by sanctions imposed by the U.S. on major Russian oil companies, leading to a downward trend in oil prices despite geopolitical tensions [3][14]. - The overall outlook for oil prices remains bearish due to limited impact on Russian oil transportation and ongoing uncertainties in the geopolitical landscape [3][14]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures have shown slight rebounds, with inventory levels increasing, indicating a cautious market environment [3][18]. - Soda ash production is also experiencing inventory build-up, and the market is closely monitoring consumption trends in the upcoming autumn season [3][18]. Financial Market Developments Stock Indices - The U.S. stock indices continue to rise, with a notable increase in financing balances, suggesting a favorable liquidity environment for equity investments [11]. - The market is expected to shift towards a more balanced investment style, with a focus on value recovery in the fourth quarter [11]. Government Bonds - The yield on 10-year government bonds has decreased, supported by the central bank's commitment to maintaining a supportive monetary policy stance [12]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and lower-than-expected inflation data are contributing to expectations of further interest rate cuts [12]. Industry News - The People's Bank of China is set to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support the capital market and enhance policy effectiveness [8]. - The focus on technological self-reliance and economic growth synchronization is a key theme in the 15th Five-Year Plan [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the expectation of maintaining policy continuity and stability in the second half of the year, with a focus on enhancing flexibility and foresight to achieve the "four stabilizations" [1] Group 1: Policy Outlook - The Fourth Plenary Session concluded with a public announcement that reflects strong policy continuity [1] - It is anticipated that more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies will be implemented in the fourth quarter [1] - The coordination between monetary and fiscal policies is expected to be strengthened to address potential impacts from uncertainties related to Trump and escalating overseas geopolitical risks [1] Group 2: Investment Focus - There is an emphasis on the importance of gold and bonds, with a particular focus on exploring convertible bonds [1] - The article suggests that the reduction in uncertainties from the fifth round of China-U.S. negotiations may create a more favorable investment environment [1]

Core Insights - China will continue to crack down on domestic virtual currency operations and speculation while further optimizing the management system for the digital renminbi [1][2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced the resumption of public market government bond trading operations, indicating a positive shift in the bond market [2] - The 2025 Financial Street Forum attracted over 400 guests from more than 30 countries, highlighting global interest in China's financial policies and reforms [1][3] Monetary Policy - The PBOC maintains a supportive monetary policy stance, utilizing various tools to ensure liquidity and support economic recovery [2] - Future monetary policy will continue to focus on moderate easing, providing short, medium, and long-term liquidity arrangements [2] Financial Market Reforms - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has initiated reforms for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, aiming to set more suitable listing standards for emerging industries [3] - The PBOC plans to introduce nine new policies to enhance cross-border trade facilitation and optimize foreign exchange management for new trade entities [3] International Cooperation - The forum emphasized China's role as a major global economic player, contributing to global trade resilience and rules [3][4] - International financial leaders noted improvements in China's financial market depth and liquidity, enhancing access for international investors [3] Future Development Goals - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines the construction of a comprehensive macro-prudential management system, which is a dynamic and collaborative process [5] - The National Financial Regulatory Administration will focus on supporting key strategic areas and enhancing the financial system's adaptability and competitiveness [5]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the importance of maintaining a stable financial environment to support the real economy and enhance financial regulation, reform, and openness, while preventing financial risks [2][5][10]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - The PBOC plans to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic recovery, including measures such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [4][5]. - By September 2025, loans in technology, green, inclusive finance, elderly care, and digital economy sectors have seen significant year-on-year growth rates of 11.8%, 22.9%, 11.2%, 58.2%, and 12.9% respectively, all exceeding the overall loan growth rate [4]. Group 2: Financial Regulation and Reform - The PBOC aims to enhance financial services for the real economy, focusing on sectors like technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and foreign trade [5][8]. - A comprehensive macro-prudential management system will be established to improve the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and support structural reforms in the financial supply side [5][11]. Group 3: Financial Openness - The PBOC is advancing high-level financial openness, promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB), and enhancing its functions in pricing, payment, investment, and reserve [7][8]. - The RMB has become the largest currency for cross-border payments in China and ranks among the top three currencies for trade financing and payments globally [7]. Group 4: Risk Prevention - The PBOC has made significant progress in mitigating financial risks, particularly in small and medium-sized financial institutions, with a notable reduction in the number of financing platforms and their debt levels by 71% and 62% respectively from March 2023 to September 2025 [10][11]. - Future efforts will focus on monitoring systemic financial risks and supporting the market-oriented transformation of financing platforms [11].

Core Viewpoint - The report by the People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of maintaining a stable and progressive financial system, enhancing support for the real economy, and ensuring financial stability and security while deepening financial reforms and opening up [2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - The implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy is prioritized, with a focus on structural support for technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [4][5]. - By the end of September 2025, loans for technology, green, inclusive, elderly care, and digital economy industries grew by 11.8%, 22.9%, 11.2%, 58.2%, and 12.9% respectively, all significantly outpacing the overall loan growth [5]. - The goal is to create a conducive monetary environment to support economic recovery, ensuring that the growth of social financing and money supply aligns with economic growth and price expectations [5][6]. Group 2: Financial Services to the Real Economy - The focus is on providing high-quality financial services, particularly in areas such as technology innovation, consumption stimulation, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [6]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to enhance their specialized and refined service capabilities, ensuring effective use of existing structural monetary policy tools [6]. Group 3: Financial Opening and International Cooperation - A multi-channel, comprehensive cross-border payment system for the RMB has been established, with significant progress in internationalization and cooperation [8][9]. - The RMB has become the largest currency for cross-border payments in China and ranks among the top three currencies for trade financing globally [8]. - The report outlines plans to further promote the internationalization of the RMB and enhance its functions in pricing, payment, investment, financing, and reserves [9][10]. Group 4: Risk Prevention and Financial Stability - Significant achievements have been made in preventing and mitigating financial risks, particularly in addressing the risks of small and medium-sized financial institutions [12]. - By the end of September 2025, the number of financing platforms and the scale of operating financial debt decreased by 71% and 62% respectively compared to March 2023, indicating a notable reduction in risk [12]. - Future efforts will focus on monitoring systemic financial risks and supporting the market-oriented transformation of financing platforms [12].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is committed to maintaining financial stability and supporting the real economy through a series of monetary policy measures and financial reforms, as outlined by Governor Pan Gongsheng in a recent report to the State Council [3][4]. Monetary Policy - The PBOC plans to implement a package of substantial monetary policy measures starting from September 2024, focusing on moderate easing to support economic recovery [4][5]. - Specific measures include further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, along with increased structural monetary policy support for technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [4][5]. - By September 2025, loans in sectors such as technology, green finance, inclusive finance, elderly care, and digital economy are expected to grow significantly, with year-on-year increases of 11.8%, 22.9%, 11.2%, 58.2%, and 12.9% respectively, all surpassing the overall loan growth rate [4]. Financial Regulation - The PBOC emphasizes the need for enhanced financial regulation and the establishment of a comprehensive macro-prudential management system to ensure effective monetary policy transmission [6]. - Financial services will be directed towards key areas such as technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and foreign trade, with a focus on improving service quality [6]. Financial Opening - The PBOC is advancing high-level financial openness, with a well-established cross-border payment system for the renminbi (RMB) and ongoing efforts to enhance the internationalization of the RMB [7][8]. - The RMB has become the largest currency for cross-border payments in China and ranks among the top three currencies for trade financing globally [7]. Risk Management - The PBOC has successfully mitigated financial risks, particularly in small and medium-sized financial institutions, through measures such as mergers, market exits, and timely liquidity support [9][10]. - By September 2025, the number of financing platforms and the scale of operating financial debt are projected to decrease significantly, indicating a reduction in financial risk [9].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is committed to implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support economic recovery and stability in the financial market [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Market Stability - The PBOC has faced significant challenges due to global financial market turbulence since April 2025, prompting a coordinated policy response to maintain market stability [1]. - The central bank is exploring various monetary policy tools to enhance the effectiveness of its policies and ensure the smooth operation of capital markets [1][4]. Group 2: Financial Services Improvement - Financial services in key areas have improved, with the establishment of a policy framework and mechanisms to support technology innovation and small enterprises [2]. - By September 2025, loans for technology, green initiatives, inclusive finance, elderly care, and digital economy sectors grew significantly, with increases of 11.8%, 22.9%, 11.2%, 58.2%, and 12.9% respectively, all surpassing the overall loan growth rate [2]. Group 3: Cross-Border Payment System - A comprehensive cross-border payment system for the Renminbi has been established, enhancing its role in international transactions [2][3]. - The Renminbi has become the largest currency for cross-border payments in China and ranks among the top three currencies for trade financing globally [3]. Group 4: Risk Management - Significant progress has been made in mitigating financial risks, particularly for small and medium-sized financial institutions, through measures such as mergers, market exits, and debt risk resolution [3]. - By September 2025, the number of financing platforms and the scale of operating financial debt decreased by 71% and 62% respectively compared to March 2023, indicating a reduction in risk [3]. Group 5: Future Policy Directions - The PBOC plans to continue implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy, ensuring liquidity remains ample and aligning social financing growth with economic growth targets [4]. - The focus will be on enhancing financial services for the real economy, particularly in technology innovation, consumption, small enterprises, and foreign trade [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has reported significant progress in financial work since November 2024, emphasizing the importance of a stable monetary policy to support the real economy and enhance financial services [1][2]. Monetary Policy Execution - The PBOC has implemented a moderately loose monetary policy since 2025, including measures such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to support technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade [1][2]. - As of September 2025, loans in key sectors such as technology, green finance, and digital economy have seen substantial year-on-year growth rates, with technology loans increasing by 11.8% and green loans by 22.9% [2]. Financial Market Stability - The Chinese financial market has withstood significant external shocks, with improved expectations and confidence among market participants [1][2]. - The PBOC has explored various monetary policy tools to maintain market stability, particularly during the global financial market turbulence in April 2025 [1]. Financial Reform and Opening Up - A comprehensive cross-border payment system for the Renminbi has been established, with the currency becoming the largest for cross-border payments in China and ranking among the top three globally for trade financing [2]. - The PBOC is committed to enhancing international financial cooperation and maintaining national financial security [2]. Risk Management - The PBOC has utilized mergers, market exits, and other strategies to reform and mitigate risks in small and medium-sized financial institutions, resulting in a significant reduction in the number of financing platforms and their debt levels [2]. Future Work Considerations - The PBOC plans to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy and enhance financial regulation to improve the quality of financial services [3][4]. - There is a focus on providing high-quality financial services to key sectors, including technology innovation and small enterprises, while ensuring policy coordination across fiscal, monetary, and industrial domains [3][4]. Structural Reforms - The PBOC aims to deepen supply-side structural reforms in finance, improve the central bank's system, and enhance the macro-prudential management framework [4][5]. - Efforts will be made to promote the internationalization of the Renminbi and maintain financial security through systematic monitoring and risk assessment [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the importance of financial work in supporting high-quality economic development and maintaining financial stability, guided by the principles set forth by the central leadership [2][3]. Financial Work Progress and Achievements - Since November 2024, the financial system has focused on stabilizing and improving support for the real economy, enhancing financial regulation, and deepening financial reform and opening up, achieving new results [3]. - Monetary policy measures have been implemented, including a package of significant monetary policy measures introduced in May 2025, resulting in a year-on-year growth of 8.7% in social financing scale and 8.4% in broad money supply by September [3]. - By September 2025, the total assets of financial institutions exceeded 520 trillion yuan, with a capital adequacy ratio of 15.36% and a non-performing loan ratio of 1.52% for commercial banks, indicating a stable financial environment [4][5]. Financial Support for the Real Economy - From November 2024 to September 2025, A-share IPOs raised 91.8 billion yuan, with 86% from private enterprises and 92% from strategic emerging industries [6]. - Loans for technology, green, inclusive, elderly, and digital economy sectors grew significantly, with year-on-year increases of 11.8%, 22.9%, 11.2%, 58.2%, and 12.9% respectively by September 2025 [6]. Financial Reform and Opening Up - The reform of financial institutions has deepened, with state-owned banks successfully raising 520 billion yuan for capital replenishment [7]. - The cross-border payment system for the renminbi has been established, with the renminbi becoming the largest currency for cross-border payments in China and ranking third in the IMF's Special Drawing Rights basket [8]. Risk Prevention and Mitigation - Measures have been taken to resolve risks in small and medium-sized financial institutions, with a 71% decrease in the number of financing platforms and a 62% reduction in operating financial debt by September 2025 compared to March 2023 [9]. - The real estate market is being supported through macro-prudential management, with new loans of 2.2 trillion yuan facilitated through a "white list" mechanism [9]. Future Work Considerations - The focus will be on implementing a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic recovery, enhancing financial regulation, and providing high-quality financial services to key sectors [11][12]. - Continued efforts will be made to deepen financial supply-side structural reforms and promote the internationalization of the renminbi [13][14].