记者 杜涛 2026年的财政赤字率是多少？部分的学者认为应该不会低于4%。 12月10日至11日在北京举行的中央经济工作会议提出，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，加强财政科学管 理，优化财政支出结构，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策。12月27日至28日召开的全国财政工作会议指出，2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策。扩大财政支 出盘子，确保必要支出力度。 积极的财政政策又称为扩张性财政政策，一般表现为扩大赤字规模和减税降费。 2025年赤字率按4%左右安排，比2024年提高1个百分点，赤字规模56600亿元，其中中央财政赤字48600亿元、地方财政赤字8000亿元。以此为基准，2026年 财政赤字规模肯定要超过56600亿元。随着GDP的增长，就算是赤字率保持不变，其绝对赤字规模也会随之增长，也意味着支出盘子规模的扩大。 从广义中央财政支出观察，2025年新增地方政府专项债务限额44000亿元，还增发了1.3万亿元的特别长期国债以及用于隐性债务置换的2万亿元专项债——2 万亿新增专项债是"10万亿化债方案"中的一部分，2025年是这一方案实施的第二年，这一方案包括连续5年每 ...

文 谭志娟 2025年是"十四五"规划收官之年，也是"十五五"规划谋篇布局的关键节点。这一年，中国人民银行坚定 实施适度宽松的货币政策，保持流动性充裕，综合运用数量、价格、结构等多种货币政策工具，为经济 回升向好和金融市场稳定运行创造了适宜的货币金融环境。 面向2026年"十五五"规划开局之年，2025年12月10日至11日召开的中央经济工作会议明确定调"要继续 实施适度宽松的货币政策""灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具""保持流动性充裕"等。作为我国经 济发展和政策走向的风向标，这一部署为新一年货币金融工作锚定方向，彰显了以适度宽松环境支持实 体经济高质量发展的坚定决心。 多位业界专家在接受《中国经营报》记者采访时表示，2025年货币政策围绕稳增长、促复苏的核心目标 精准发力，整体实施效果显著，为高质量发展筑牢了金融根基。2026年货币政策有望延续适度宽松的基 调，发力方向将更注重精准性与协同性。 延续适度宽松基调 2025年，央行实施降准0.5个百分点，向金融市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元；公开市场操作、中期借贷 便利（MLF）、再贷款再贴现等多种货币政策工具精准操作，为实体经济融资提供充裕的流动性环 境 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a slight increase, with sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, automobiles, and non-ferrous metals leading the gains, while the consumer sector saw a pullback. The Wind All A index rose by 0.13% with a trading volume of 2.16 trillion yuan [2][9] - The A500 ETF saw significant subscriptions in December, with net subscriptions reaching 110 billion yuan, of which nearly 102 billion yuan was for the A500 ETF. The A500 index has a high correlation with the CSI 300 index, exceeding 0.98, with a slight difference in growth-oriented stocks [2][10] Bond Market - On Tuesday, the bond futures market showed mixed results, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.17% while the 10-year and 5-year contracts fell slightly. The People's Bank of China conducted a 3.125 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a bid rate of 1.4% [3][11] - The central economic work conference indicated a continuation of moderately loose monetary policy for the next year, emphasizing the importance of promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [3][11] Precious Metals - Overnight, London spot gold rose by 0.13% to $4,337 per ounce, while silver increased by 5.58% to $76.18 per ounce. Platinum rose by 3.79%, and palladium saw a slight decline of 0.59%. The gold-silver ratio fell to around 57.7 [5][12] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicated that most participants believe further rate cuts may be appropriate if inflation decreases as expected, with a majority supporting a rate cut in December [5][12]

2026年元旦假期将至，A股市场将迎来短暂休市。根据沪深京交易所安排， 2026年1月1日至1月3日为元旦假期休市，1月5日起照常开市。 随着国债逆回购成为节假日主流理财选择，券商也在推广更多组合策略。例如"国债逆回购+短债/短融ETF"等方案，号称可以实现"一份本金，两份收 益"。 有市场信息称， 如果只做1天期国债逆回购，能赚到多天利息的最佳交易日就是今天。操作方法如下： 12月30日操作1天期国债逆回购，收获5天利息，资 金在1月5日盘前已处于可用状态。 值得关注的是，近年来市场利率整体走低，交易所国债逆回购收益率也随之整体走低，但 在一些关键节点的年化收益率仍屡次出现飙升现象，并常能高 出同期银行存款利率和宝类产品收益率不少。比如2025年元旦假期前夕，沪深国债逆回购品种年化收益率也曾出现飙升，多个品种年化收益率曾超过 2.5%；2024年元旦假期前夕，多个期限的沪深国债逆回购品种年化收益率最高甚至超过5%，比平日的国债逆回购收益率要高出不少。 国债逆回购的"节假日效应"源于其独特的计息规则，按资金实际占用天数计算。根据规则， 从资金首次交收日（T+1日）到到期交收日之间的天数（算头 不算尾）为计息天 ...

12月18日，中国人民银行货币政策委员会召开2025年第四季度例会。 会议认为，今年以来，宏观调控力度加大，货币政策适度宽松，持续发力、适时加力，强化逆周期调 节，综合运用多种货币政策工具，服务实体经济高质量发展，为经济稳中向好创造适宜的货币金融环 境。 对于下一阶段货币政策主要思路，会议认为，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调 节力度，更好发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功能，加强货币财政政策协同配合，促进经济稳定增 长和物价合理回升。"这与中央经济工作会议确定的货币政策基调保持高度一致，显示2026年货币政策 会延续支持性立场，在稳增长方向上进一步发力。"东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青如是分析。 更好发挥货币政策工具的总量 和结构双重功能 畅通货币政策传导机制 本次会议提到，强化央行政策利率引导，完善市场化利率形成传导机制，发挥市场利率定价自律机制作 用，加强利率政策执行和监督，并提出要"畅通货币政策传导机制，提高资金使用效率"。 此前，央行在三季度货币政策执行报告中也详细介绍了央行政策利率通过金融体系传导至不同细分市场 的利率传导机制。在业内专家看来，保持合理的利率关系，正是未来畅通利率传导 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference reiterated the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing the flexible and efficient use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, indicating a proactive approach to economic stabilization and growth [1][12]. Summary by Sections Review of Monetary Policy Operations This Year - The shift in monetary policy from "prudent" to "moderately loose" was signaled during the Central Political Bureau meeting in December last year, leading to a significant decline in the 10-year government bond yield, which fell by 88 basis points over the year, marking the largest drop in a decade [2][6]. - The 10-year government bond yield reached a record low of below 1.6% after the New Year and Spring Festival [2]. Key Aspects of Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has confirmed that "moderately loose" reflects the supportive nature of recent monetary policy actions, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and optimizing the structure of monetary policy tools [5][14]. - In 2023, the PBOC implemented only one RRR cut of 50 basis points, compared to two cuts totaling 100 basis points in the previous year, and reduced the policy interest rate for the 7-day reverse repurchase agreement by 10 basis points [6][8]. Outlook for Next Year's Monetary Policy - The continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy is expected, with the central economic work conference acknowledging ongoing challenges such as external economic pressures and domestic supply-demand imbalances [9][10]. - The emphasis will be on enhancing policy coordination, integrating various economic policies to support stable growth, employment, and market expectations [11][12]. Implementation Strategies - The PBOC aims to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance while avoiding excessive liquidity injections, focusing on precise measures and leaving room for adjustments based on economic conditions [12][14]. - The integration of fiscal and monetary policies will be crucial, with examples such as the fiscal subsidy policy for personal consumption loans highlighting the collaboration between these sectors [11][12]. Risk Management and Financial Stability - The central economic work conference stressed the importance of balancing economic growth with risk prevention, enhancing the monitoring and assessment of financial risks, and maintaining stability in financial markets [17][18]. - The PBOC is tasked with building a robust monetary policy framework and improving the transparency of policy communication to bolster public confidence [18].

Monetary Policy Overview - The central economic work conference reiterated the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing the flexible and efficient use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [1][6][10] - The shift in monetary policy tone from "prudent" to "moderately loose" was signaled during the Central Political Bureau meeting in December last year, leading to expectations of larger RRR cuts and interest rate reductions in 2025 [2][3] Market Reactions and Trends - The 10-year government bond yield fell by 88 basis points over the past year, marking the largest decline in a decade, with a record low of below 1.6% reached after the New Year and Spring Festival [2][5] - Despite the shift to a moderately loose policy, the 10-year bond yield increased by 16 basis points as of December 26, primarily due to the market's anticipation of monetary easing being priced in [5] Policy Implementation and Tools - In 2023, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) implemented a series of financial measures, including a single RRR cut of 50 basis points and a 10 basis point reduction in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which was less aggressive than the previous year's actions [3][4] - The PBOC utilized various tools such as open market operations, medium-term lending facilities (MLF), and structural monetary policy tools to maintain ample liquidity in the market [4][10] Economic Indicators - As of November, the broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.0% year-on-year, with a 0.9 percentage point increase compared to the previous year, while the social financing scale increased by 8.5% [4] - The macro leverage ratio, measured by M2 and social financing stock relative to annual GDP, increased by 9.1 and 11.5 percentage points respectively, indicating a more relaxed monetary environment [4] Future Policy Directions - The central economic work conference highlighted the need for enhanced policy "synergy," focusing on the integration of existing and new monetary policies to support economic stability and growth [8][9] - The PBOC aims to balance short-term and long-term goals, ensuring that monetary policy supports economic growth while managing risks effectively [9][12]

去年12月9日中央政治局会议分析研究2025年经济工作时，就"剧透"了来年货币政策基调从"稳健"调整为"适度宽松"的信号。这引发了对2025年更大力度降 准降息的憧憬，债券市场出现"抢跑"行情。去年全年，10年期国债收益率累计下行88个基点，跌幅创十年来新高。其中，12月单月下行35个基点，而12月9 日（含）之后贡献了28个基点。今年元旦和春节过后，10年期国债收益率两度收盘跌破1.6%，创有记录以来新低。 央行例会将"适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕"替换成"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕"。 继去年底时隔14年重提"实施适度宽松的货币政策"后，今年底中央经济工作会议再提"继续实施适度宽松的货币政策"，且在具体表述中用"灵活高效运用降 准降息等多种政策工具"替换了"适时降准降息"。本文拟在回顾今年货币政策操作的基础上，结合日前召开的中国人民银行货币政策委员会第四季度例会 （下称"四季度例会"）对明年货币政策进行展望。 今年货币政策操作回顾 年初笔者引用人民银行行长潘功胜去年6月在陆家嘴论坛上关于中国货币政策立场是支持性的评论时指出，"适度宽松"是对前期货币政策操作的确认，而不 是货币政策的 ...

12月26日金融一线消息，近日，中国人民银行发布了《中国金融稳定报告（2025）》。报告提到，2025 年是"十四五"规划收官之年，要引导大型商业银行发挥金融服务实体经济主力军作用，推动中小银行聚 焦主责主业，扎实做好金融"五篇大文章"，支持银行多渠道补充资本，有效维护金融市场稳定发展。实 施好适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要参考，灵活高效运 用多种货币政策工具，把握好政策实施的力度、节奏和时机，保持流动性充裕，促进社会融资成本低位 运行，加强对实体经济的金融支持。畅通货币政策传导机制，优化结构性货币政策工具运用，激励和引 导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。 责任编辑：王馨茹 12月26日金融一线消息，近日，中国人民银行发布了《中国金融稳定报告（2025）》。报告提到，2025 年是"十四五"规划收官之年，要引导大型商业银行发挥金融服务实体经济主力军作用，推动中小银行聚 焦主责主业，扎实做好金融"五篇大文章"，支持银行多渠道补充资本，有效维护金融市场稳定发展。实 施好适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要参考，灵活 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) aims to continue implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy, enhancing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to maintain ample liquidity and promote low social financing costs [1][3] - The meeting suggested leveraging the integrated effects of incremental and stock policies, utilizing various tools to strengthen monetary policy regulation, and adjusting the implementation of policies based on domestic and international economic conditions [3] - The chief economist of Industrial Bank, Lu Zhengwei, indicated that both traditional and innovative monetary policy tools have room for action, suggesting an increase in quotas and a reduction in interest rates for effective tools [3] Group 2 - As of December 25, the swap facility tool has been executed twice, with a total amount of 105 billion yuan. A total of 708 listed companies have disclosed 784 repurchase and increase loan plans, with a cumulative loan amount limit of 158.35 billion yuan [3] - Additionally, China Chengtong Holdings and China Guoxin Holdings announced plans to use 180 billion yuan for stock repurchase and increase loan funds, bringing the total loan amount limit for stock repurchase and increase to 338.35 billion yuan [3] - The meeting also emphasized the need to assess the bond market from a macro-prudential perspective, monitor changes in long-term yields, enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market, and stabilize market expectations to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate [3]