Monetary Policy Overview - The central bank's report emphasizes the flexible and efficient use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity and relatively loose social financing conditions [1][2] - The report highlights the importance of aligning social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [2] Interest Rate Management - The report outlines plans to further improve the interest rate adjustment framework, strengthen the guidance of central bank policy rates, and enhance the market-based interest rate formation and transmission mechanism [2] - The goal is to lower bank funding costs and promote low-level operation of comprehensive social financing costs [2] Exchange Rate Stability - The report calls for maintaining the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, using a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand [2] - It emphasizes the need to strengthen expectations management and prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate [2] Financial Structure and Support - The report discusses the implementation of structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [2][3] - It highlights the collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies to enhance financial support for these sectors [4][5] Asset Management Products and Deposits - The report notes a decline in the growth rate of household deposits in Q3 2025, while asset management products have seen rapid growth, indicating a shift in financial asset allocation [8][9] - The total assets of asset management products reached 120 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 13.1% [8] Liquidity Assessment - The report suggests that combining asset management products with bank deposits provides a better perspective for assessing the liquidity conditions of the financial system [9][10] - The total liquidity indicator, which aggregates various liquid financial instruments, showed a year-on-year growth of approximately 8.1% by the end of 2025, indicating stable growth trends [10]

责任编辑：山上 央行发布2025年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告。继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济稳定增 长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政 策实施的力度、节奏和时机。灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕和社会融资条件 相对宽松，引导金融总量合理增长、信贷均衡投放，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价 格总水平预期目标相匹配。进一步完善利率调控框架，强化央行政策利率引导，完善市场化利率形成传 导机制，发挥市场利率定价自律机制作用，加强利率政策执行和监督，降低银行负债成本，促进社会综 合融资成本低位运行。有序扩大明示企业贷款综合融资成本工作覆盖面。发挥好货币政策工具总量和结 构双重功能，有效落实好各类结构性货币政策工具，扎实做好金融"五篇大文章"，加强对扩大内需、科 技创新、中小微企业等重点领域的金融支持。坚持以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管 理的浮动汇率制度，保持汇率弹性，发挥汇率调节宏观经济和国际收支自动稳定器功能，强化预期引 导，防范汇率超调风险，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。拓展丰富中央银行宏观 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the continuation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The report highlights the importance of adjusting the strength, pace, and timing of policy implementation based on domestic and international economic conditions and financial market operations [2] - It advocates for the flexible and efficient use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity and relatively loose social financing conditions [2] - The goal is to align the growth of social financing scale and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations [2] Group 2: Interest Rate Management - The report calls for further improvement of the interest rate adjustment framework and strengthening the guidance of central bank policy rates [2] - It emphasizes the need to enhance the market-based interest rate formation and transmission mechanism, and to utilize self-discipline in market interest rate pricing [2] - The aim is to lower bank funding costs and promote low-level operation of comprehensive financing costs for society [2] Group 3: Structural Monetary Policy Tools - The report stresses the effective implementation of various structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises [2] - It highlights the importance of maintaining a managed floating exchange rate system and ensuring the flexibility of the exchange rate to stabilize the macroeconomy and international balance of payments [2] - The report also mentions the need to strengthen expectation guidance and prevent excessive exchange rate fluctuations, maintaining the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level [2] Group 4: Financial Stability - The report aims to expand and enrich the central bank's macro-prudential and financial stability functions, enhancing the toolbox for macro-prudential and financial stability management [2] - It emphasizes the maintenance of financial market stability and the commitment to preventing systemic financial risks [2]

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 2025年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告：继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济稳定增长、物价 合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的 力度、节奏和时机。灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕和社会融资条件相对宽 松，引导金融总量合理增长、信贷均衡投放，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水 平预期目标相匹配。进一步完善利率调控框架，强化央行政策利率引导，完善市场化利率形成传导机 制，发挥市场利率定价自律机制作用，加强利率政策执行和监督，降低银行负债成本，促进社会综合融 资成本低位运行。有序扩大明示企业贷款综合融资成本工作覆盖面。发挥好货币政策工具总量和结构双 重功能，有效落实好各类结构性货币政策工具，扎实做好金融"五篇大文章"，加强对扩大内需、科技创 新、中小微企业等重点领域的金融支持。坚持以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months, aligning with market expectations [4][7]. Group 1: LPR Announcement - The LPR published on December 22, 2025, is 3.0% for the one-year term and 3.5% for terms over five years [2]. - The LPR will remain effective until the next announcement [2]. Group 2: LPR Calculation and Market Context - The LPR is determined by quoting banks based on the open market operation rate plus a margin, calculated by the National Interbank Funding Center [6]. - Currently, 20 banks participate in the LPR quoting process, submitting quotes on the 20th of each month [6]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Future Projections - Industry insiders noted that the unchanged LPR in December meets widespread market expectations, influenced by the central bank's ongoing efforts to refine interest rate control mechanisms [7]. - The central bank's third-quarter monetary policy report emphasized improving the quality of LPR quotes to better reflect market rates and support economic stability [8]. - Analysts predict potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in 2026, with a possible 10 basis points cut and a 50 basis points reduction [8].

2025 年 12 月 14 日 行业研究 从银行视角看经济工作会议 ——2025 年中央经济工作会议精神解读 银行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：董文欣 执业证书编号：S0930521090001 010-57378035 dongwx@ebscn.com 分析师：赵晨阳 执业证书编号：S0930524070005 010-57378030 zhaochenyang@ebscn.com 一是数量工具层面，央行或继续通过逆回购、买断式、MLF、国债买卖、降准等 多重渠道"花样放水"。现阶段央行流动性投放渠道丰富，逆回购、买断式、MLF、 国债买卖等工具涵盖多种期限与操作频次，对银行体系流动性"补水"并不局限 于降准一种方式。截至 12 月 12 日，包含逆回购、买断式、MLF、国债买卖等工 具在内的广义公开市场操作存量约 14 万亿。鉴于央行保持其"贷方地位"以维系 结构性流动性短缺框架有效性，综合考虑流动性投放的滚动频度、融资成本、基 础货币吞吐强度等因素，预计 2026 年需要央行通过二 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the implementation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support economic growth and maintain price stability [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The central bank aims to maintain relatively loose social financing conditions through the comprehensive use of various tools [1] - There is a focus on ensuring that the growth of social financing scale and money supply aligns with economic growth and price level expectations [1] - The report highlights the importance of promoting a reasonable recovery in prices as a key consideration for monetary policy [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Management - The central bank plans to further improve the interest rate adjustment framework and strengthen the guidance of policy interest rates [1] - There is an emphasis on enhancing the market-based interest rate formation and transmission mechanism [1] - The goal is to lower the cost of bank liabilities and promote a decrease in the overall financing costs for society [1] Group 3: Structural Monetary Policy Tools - The report stresses the dual function of monetary policy tools in terms of total volume and structure [1] - It aims to effectively implement various structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [1] Group 4: Exchange Rate Stability - The central bank intends to maintain exchange rate flexibility while managing a floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand [1] - There is a focus on strengthening expectations guidance and preventing excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate [1] - The goal is to keep the RMB exchange rate stable at a reasonable and balanced level [1] Group 5: Financial Stability - The report mentions the exploration of expanding the central bank's macro-prudential and financial stability functions [1] - It emphasizes the importance of maintaining financial market stability and preventing systemic financial risks [1]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the upcoming period, ensuring ample liquidity and aligning the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations [1][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of promoting a reasonable recovery in prices as a key consideration for monetary policy [1] - There will be improvements in the interest rate adjustment framework, with a focus on enhancing the guidance of central bank policy rates and the transmission mechanism of market-based interest rates [1] Group 2 - The monetary policy tools will be utilized to support technological innovation, boost consumption, assist small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade [2] - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a managed floating exchange rate system and ensuring the stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level [2] - There is a commitment to explore and expand the central bank's macro-prudential and financial stability functions to maintain financial market stability and prevent systemic financial risks [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need for a more refined interest rate adjustment framework and aims to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy in supporting the real economy while maintaining financial health [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Framework - The PBOC plans to strengthen the guidance of policy interest rates and improve the transmission mechanism of market-based interest rates [1] - There is a focus on reducing banks' funding costs to lower the overall financing costs in society [1] - The central bank aims to balance financial support for the real economy with the health of the financial system [1] Group 2: Implementation of Monetary Policy - The PBOC will implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, adjusting the intensity and pace based on domestic and international economic conditions [1] - Maintaining ample liquidity is a priority, ensuring that the growth of social financing and money supply aligns with economic growth and price level expectations [1] - Promoting a reasonable recovery of prices is highlighted as a key consideration in monetary policy [1] Group 3: Support for Specific Sectors - The PBOC intends to utilize structural monetary policy tools to support technology innovation, boost consumption, assist small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From May 6 - 9, short - term varieties performed well, with the 1Y CD rate breaking through the resistance level around 1.75% and dropping nearly 10BP. From May 12 - 16, the net payment of government bonds increased significantly to 6453 billion yuan, putting pressure on the capital market. However, the RRR cut on May 15 will provide 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity support, and it is expected that the capital interest rate will remain around 1.5%. The result of the Sino - US trade negotiation exceeded expectations, the bond market quickly adjusted, and the short - term still has value. If the capital interest rate stays around the policy rate, when the 1Y CD rate drops to around 1.6%, profit - taking is needed [3][9]. - The "2025 Q1 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report" has three key points: First, it affirms the phased results of interest rate formation and transmission and will further improve the interest rate regulation framework; second, it shifts from focusing on activating the stock and preventing idling to increasing credit investment and highlighting quantitative tools; third, it mentions the US tariff policy multiple times and sets up a special column to discuss government debt and inflation [3][9][13]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Current Situation and Future Concerns - On May 7, a package of financial policies were introduced. From May 6 - 9, the net payment of government bonds was negative, but the capital price declined slowly before the interest rate cut on May 8, which may be related to the central bank's net reverse - repurchase withdrawal of over 1 trillion yuan from May 6 - 7. After the interest rate cut on May 8, the capital price dropped significantly. As of May 9, DR001 was 1.49%, R001 was 1.52%, DR007 was 1.54%, and R007 was 1.58%. The spread between DR007 and 7DOMO was 14BP, and the spread between R007 and DR007 remained within 5bp [8]. - The result of the Sino - US trade negotiation exceeded expectations, the bond market quickly adjusted, the long - end adjustment was larger, and the yield curve steepened. In the short term, the possibility of further easing decreased, and the short - term still has value [9]. 2. Money Market Interest Rate Tracking - From May 6 - 9, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 781.7 billion yuan, all from pledged reverse - repurchase. From May 12 - 16, the pledged reverse - repurchase due was 836.1 billion yuan and the MLF due was 125 billion yuan. The bill interest rate changed little from May 6 - 9, with the 3M national - share discount rate rising from 1.07% to 1.09% and the six - month national - share transfer discount rate remaining around 1.07% [32][34]. 3. Open - Market Operation Tracking - As of May 9, the central bank's total open - market operation balance was 9664.1 billion yuan, including a pledged reverse - repurchase balance of 836.1 billion yuan, a repurchase - style reverse - repurchase balance of 460 billion yuan, and an MLF balance of 465.7 billion yuan. From May 6 - 9, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 781.7 billion yuan, all from pledged reverse - repurchase. From May 12 - 16, the pledged reverse - repurchase due was 836.1 billion yuan and the MLF due was 125 billion yuan [39]. 4. Government Bond Tracking 4.1 Government Bond Issuance - From May 5 - 9, treasury bonds were issued for 37.1 billion yuan with a net financing of 19.558 billion yuan; local bonds were issued for 10.5459 billion yuan with a net financing of 6.7224 billion yuan. From May 12 - 16, treasury bonds were issued for 55 billion yuan with a net financing of 46.067 billion yuan; local bonds were issued for 19.725 billion yuan with a net financing of 17.1114 billion yuan [45][47]. 4.2 Government Bond Payment - From May 6 - 9, the net payment of government bonds was - 12.29 billion yuan, with the net payment of treasury bonds at - 75.42 billion yuan and that of local bonds at 63.13 billion yuan. It is expected that from May 12 - 16, the net payment of government bonds will be 645.32 billion yuan, with the net payment of treasury bonds at 481.67 billion yuan and that of local bonds at 163.65 billion yuan [52]. 5. Inter - Bank Certificate of Deposit (CD) Tracking 5.1 Primary Market of Inter - Bank CDs - From May 6 - 9, inter - bank CDs were issued for 857.7 billion yuan, with a net financing of 368.5 billion yuan. From May 12 - 16, the maturity of inter - bank CDs was 593.9 billion yuan. In terms of bank types, joint - stock banks had the highest issuance scale; in terms of maturity types, 1Y had the highest issuance scale. The overall issuance success rate was 97%. The issuance success rate of state - owned banks was the highest at 100%, and that of 1Y was 98%. The issuance interest rates of all types of banks and all maturities decreased significantly [57][58]. 5.2 Secondary Market of Inter - Bank CDs - From May 6 - 9, after the central bank announced the RRR cut and interest rate cut, the secondary - market yields of CDs of all maturities decreased significantly, with the 3M CD yield dropping by 13bp and the yields of other maturities dropping by about 8bp [80]. 6. Excess Reserve Ratio Tracking - The estimated excess reserve ratio at the end of March 2025 was 1.00%. From May 6 - 9, the central bank's open - market net withdrawal was 781.7 billion yuan, and the net payment of government bonds was - 12.29 billion yuan, reducing the excess reserve scale by 769.41 billion yuan in total [86].