宝城期货分析指出，继上周五纽约金冲高回落，本周一金价维持颓势，纽约金由3450美元回落至3400美 元关口，沪金和伦敦金也跟随下行。此前市场预期美国将对黄金征税，昨日美国总统特朗普称黄金不会 被加征关税。短期纽约金冲高回落，依旧处于二季度以来震荡区间，关税预期被证伪，预计持续震荡偏 弱运行。 消息面上，美国财长贝森特在接受采访时表示，美国总统特朗普的关税政策旨在将制造业带回美国。贸 易方面，他认为到10月底前就能基本完成相关工作。 8月11日，受特朗普黄金不会被征收关税表态及美贸易谈判预计10月结束消息催化，金价大幅跳水，创 近一周新低，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货跌2.80%报3393.7美元/盎司，截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏 (518850)跌1.05%，黄金股ETF(159562)跌2.53%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices have drawn significant attention from global investors, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and policy expectations, with a medium-term upward trend anticipated after short-term adjustments [1][3] Price Fluctuations - As of August 11, COMEX gold futures were priced at $3415.7 per ounce, down approximately 2%, while London gold spot prices were at $3359.81 per ounce, indicating a period of high volatility since late July [1] - The price gap between international gold futures and spot prices has widened significantly, reaching levels not seen in recent years, with a peak difference of over $100 per ounce [2] Market Dynamics - The recent increase in gold prices is attributed to various factors, including lower-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data, which heightened concerns about economic weakness, leading to a rapid rebound in gold prices [1][2] - The World Gold Council reported a net increase of 22 tons in global official gold reserves in June, marking the third consecutive month of slight increases, with China's gold reserves reaching 2300.41 tons by the end of July [2] Future Price Predictions - Institutions generally expect gold prices to maintain an upward trajectory, with Goldman Sachs predicting a potential rise to $3700 per ounce by year-end, and some optimistic forecasts suggesting prices could reach $4000 per ounce [3] - UBS maintains a price target of $3500 per ounce under baseline scenarios, with potential for $3800 per ounce if geopolitical tensions escalate or global economic conditions worsen [4] Investment Demand - Investment demand for gold has surged, with a year-on-year increase of 78%, and inflows into gold ETFs reaching the fastest half-year growth since 2010, indicating strong market interest [4] - UBS has revised its annual gold ETF demand forecast from 450 tons to slightly above 600 tons, marking the largest increase since 2020, despite current holdings being approximately 650 tons below historical peaks [4]

黄金股早盘走低，截至发稿，赤峰黄金(06693)跌4.92%，报25.52港元；山东黄金(01787)跌4.5%，报 28.46港元；中国黄金国际(02099)跌3.15%，报73.9港元；紫金矿业(02899)跌0.69%，报22.9港元。 消息面上，8月7日，中国人民银行数据显示，7月末黄金储备达7396万盎司，环比增加6万盎司，已连续 9个月增持。世界黄金协会发布的数据显示，2025年6月，全球官方黄金储备净增22吨，已连续第三个月 环比小幅上升。2025年上半年全球央行净购金量达123吨，较2024年同期小幅下降。 招商证券8月初发布研报称，金价短期上涨动力减弱。 虽然黄金具备配置价值，但在短期维度，上涨动 能不足，需警惕局部过热风险。该机构建议投资者，关注结构性机会，而非全面押注黄金上涨。东证期 货指出，市场对未来美联储降息的预期增加，但也基本反映在了金价中。 ...

| 今日金店黄金回收价格一览(2025年8月7日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回收报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | | 黄金 | 769. 80 | 元/克 | | 采自黄金 | 775.30 | 元/克 | | 周生生黄金 | 767. 60 | 元/克 | | 周大福黄金 | 773.90 | 元/克 | | 老凤祥黄金 | 782.80 | 元/克 | 说完国内黄金价格，我们再来讲讲国际金价情况： 昨日现货黄金走势有点类似于前一日，整体呈V型走势。不过昨日金价在晚间回升后，再次迎来下跌，最终收报3369.19美元/盎司，跌幅0.33%。 今日金价暂有上行趋势，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3377.67美元/盎司，涨幅0.25%。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年8月7日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1012 | 元/克 | l | 跌 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1015 | 元/克 | O | 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a pullback from an eight-day high of approximately $3,390, influenced by concerns over the Federal Reserve's appointments and potential easing measures [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The dollar entered a downward consolidation phase due to worries surrounding the Federal Reserve's appointments and further easing [2][5]. - On Tuesday, gold prices closed above the critical resistance level of $3,380, with a bullish crossover indicated on the daily relative strength index [2][3]. - President Trump announced he would soon decide on a short-term replacement for Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler, who resigned, and mentioned four candidates to replace current Fed Chair Jerome Powell [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The ISM reported that the services PMI for July fell to 50.1, down from 50.8 in June and below market expectations of 51.5 [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The short-term technical outlook for gold remains optimistic, with the 14-day RSI holding above the midline, currently close to 55, suggesting any downward movement may be temporary [10]. - A bullish crossover was confirmed as the 21-day moving average surpassed the 50-day simple moving average at Tuesday's close [10]. - Immediate resistance is at the $3,400 level, with the next bullish target set at the static resistance of $3,440, followed by the June 16 high of $3,453 [10].

中国人民银行数据表明，央行二季度净购金6吨，上半年累计增储19吨，截至6月，连续8个月增持黄金。 不过，世界黄金协会发布最新的二季度全球黄金需求报告却显示，市场购金主力军的全球央行的购买量有所放 缓，全球央行在二季度净购金166吨，增储量同比减少了21%。 全球央行购金速度放缓除了当前金价处于较高位置之外，对于金价上涨的前景表明了并不统一的立场。 日内收盘，沪金上涨0.26%，报收782.5元/克。 图片来源：曲合APP 前期出于对贸易冲突的担忧部分资金选择押注黄金多头，随着 8 月 1 日到来前或有更多国家和美国达成贸易协 议对市场情绪影响减弱对美元资产形成支撑使价格承压，但 7 月美国经济数据呈现恶化再次提振9 月美联储降 息可能性，政治局势也使避险需求再次升温，未来美国通胀等相关数据对市场的影响将不断增加带来单反波 动。技术面上国际金价持续盘中形成三角形态在 3450 美元的前高存在阻力缺乏较强突破的驱动，金价连跌后快 速修复整体仍维持偏强震荡，多单在 3300 美元（770 元）上方继续持有。 ...

一是高金价下需控制成本，今年上半年伦敦现货黄金价格上涨25.7%，央行暂缓增持避高位接盘； 来源：百利好环球官方微博 世界黄金协会发布的2025年二季度《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，二季度全球黄金需求总量（含场外交易）达1249吨，同比 增长3%；按价值算，同比大增45%至1320亿美元，创历史新高。 当下全球经济与地缘政治形势复杂，黄金需求展现韧性，但全球央行购金节奏放缓。二季度央行购金总量虽仍处高位，可增速 下滑，同比减少21%。购金前五的央行或主权基金为波兰央行、阿塞拜疆国家石油基金、土耳其央行、哈萨克斯坦共和国央行 和中国央行。 央行购金放缓是短期战术与长期战略平衡的结果。 二是储备目标阶段性达成，购金紧迫性降低，行为更审慎； 三是流动性管理需求，部分央行如哈萨克斯坦在高金价下战术性抛售，维持流动性。 此外，二季度下半段部分地缘政治局势缓和，市场避险情绪降温，也降低了央行短期内大规模购金的紧迫性。 受访专家称，央行购金节奏调整是"战术暂停"，地缘风险升级时很可能重拾增长。盘和林指出，黄金市场不单纯由央行购金驱 动，央行购金减少不一定影响金价波动，但若无全球经济风险扰动，会致金价横盘或下跌，影响投资人信 ...

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 954.8 tons of gold as of August 4, 2025, marking an increase of 1.72 tons from the previous trading day, indicating a reversal from prior reductions in holdings as gold prices have been rising [4]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of August 4, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's holdings reached 954.8 tons, up by 1.72 tons from the previous day [4]. - The increase in gold ETF holdings coincided with a rise in spot gold prices, which reached a high of $3,385.5 per ounce and closed at $3,373.47 per ounce, reflecting a gain of $10.43 or 0.31% [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Recent economic data showed a non-farm payroll increase of 73,000 in July, with downward revisions of 258,000 for May and June, leading to market volatility and a shift in expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy towards a more dovish stance [4]. - Concerns over the independence and credibility of economic data have been heightened following the dismissal of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics chief by Trump and the resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Kaskel, which may influence market sentiment and gold prices [4][5]. Group 3: Future Price Predictions and Technical Analysis - Citigroup has revised its three-month gold price forecast from $3,300 to $3,500, citing deteriorating short-term economic growth and inflation outlooks in the U.S. [5]. - Technical analysis indicates a bullish outlook for gold, with the price having broken above the 21-day and 50-day moving averages, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggesting potential for continued upward movement [5].

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has raised its gold price forecast for the next three months from $3,300 to $3,500 per ounce, citing deteriorating growth and inflation outlooks for the U.S. economy [1] Economic Outlook - The bank anticipates that concerns over U.S. economic growth and tariff-related inflation will continue to escalate in the second half of 2025 [1] - A weakening dollar is expected to contribute to a moderate increase in gold prices, potentially reaching historical highs [1] Employment and Geopolitical Risks - Weak U.S. employment data in Q2 2025 is likely to heighten concerns regarding the credibility of the Federal Reserve and U.S. statistical data [1] - Rising geopolitical risks associated with the Russia-Ukraine conflict are also noted as a factor influencing gold prices [1] Demand for Gold - Since mid-2022, total demand for gold has increased by over one-third [1]

Regulatory Changes - The People's Bank of China has issued new regulations for anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing in the precious metals and gemstones industry, requiring institutions to report cash transactions exceeding 100,000 RMB or equivalent foreign currency within five working days starting from August 1, 2025 [1] Market Trends - International gold prices have been fluctuating around historical highs, with a notable decline of over 10% from peak levels in late July [2] - Demand for gold jewelry has decreased in recent months, with one retailer reporting a 15% drop in transaction volume in July compared to June [2] - The World Gold Council reported a 3% year-on-year increase in global gold demand in Q2 2025, but a significant 14% decline in gold jewelry consumption, nearing levels seen during the 2020 pandemic [2] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are showing a preference for investing in gold bars rather than high-priced gold jewelry, with a notable price threshold of 800 RMB per gram influencing purchasing decisions [2] - The overall consumer confidence remains low, which is expected to continue to pressure gold jewelry consumption in the second half of the year [3] Economic Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices may remain stable within a narrow range in the second half of the year, influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties and potential geopolitical tensions that could enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]