近年来，四川省眉山市仁寿县积极落实各项惠企政策，持续加大对民营企业的帮扶支持力度，助力民营 企业高质量发展。图为在眉山市仁寿县卓航电子科技有限公司生产车间，工人在赶制订单产品。潘帅摄 （人民视觉） 7月1日召开的中央财经委员会第六次会议（以下简称"会议"），对推进全国统一大市场建设进行部署。 此次会议提出了纵深推进全国统一大市场建设"五统一、一开放"的基本要求，即统一市场基础制度、统 一市场基础设施、统一政府行为尺度、统一市场监管执法、统一要素资源市场，持续扩大对内对外开 放。其中，"统一政府行为尺度""持续扩大对内对外开放"等新提法引发各界关注。 明确提出"五统一、一开放" 自《中共中央 国务院关于加快建设全国统一大市场的意见》于2022年出台以来，全国统一大市场建设 不断向纵深推进。 国家发展改革委于今年初公布《全国统一大市场建设指引（试行）》，将推动全国统一大市场建设概括 为"五统一、一破除"，即强化市场基础制度规则统一、打造统一的要素和资源市场、推进商品和服务市 场高水平统一、推进市场设施高标准联通、推进市场监管公平统一以及破除地方保护和市场分割。 今年的《政府工作报告》也提出，要纵深推进全国统一大市 ...

开源证券研报表示，今年下半年光伏行业需求或将转弱，当前产业链多环节产品价格已跌破现金成本 线。在此背景下，头部光伏玻璃企业计划自7月份开始集体减产，头部硅料企业正主动推进多晶硅产能 整合，推动行业供需结构改善。 不仅是光伏玻璃，钢铁、水泥等行业也在积极"反内卷"。 近期，部分钢厂已收到减排限产通知。此前，中国钢铁工业协会秘书长姜维表示，防止恶性竞争应成为 全体钢铁企业共同遵守的行业准则。 7月1日，中国水泥协会发布《关于进一步推动水泥行业"反内卷""稳增长"高质量发展工作的意见》。从 百年建筑网水泥综合价格指数看，2023年水泥平均值为419元/吨，2024年为386元/吨，2025年上半年为 381元/吨，"可以看出，水泥价格逐年下跌，今年上半年水泥价格呈现持续下跌趋势，同时，水泥行业 的利润也逐渐下降。"上海钢联百年建筑网水泥首席分析师江元林认为，行业"反内卷"旨在促进水泥价 格回归合理区间。 本报记者 许林艳 近日召开的中央财经委员会第六次会议强调，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，要聚焦重点难点，依法依 规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出。 "减产、陆续出清尾部产能是行业'反 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for the orderly exit of backward production capacity as a fundamental guarantee for smooth economic circulation both domestically and internationally [1][6] - The recent Central Financial Committee meeting highlighted the importance of creating a unified market system to combat low-price disorderly competition and internal competition, which reflects the ongoing issues of insufficient effective demand in the economy [2][3] - The exit of backward production capacity is crucial for achieving marginal balance in supply and demand, allowing competition to shift from price wars to enhancing product quality and consumer surplus [3][4] Group 2 - To facilitate the orderly exit of backward production capacity, it is essential to eliminate systemic barriers that hinder the operation of the Bankruptcy Law and improve market exit mechanisms [3][4] - Effective risk prevention measures must be implemented, including stress testing for industry risks and requiring companies to disclose their risk assessments regularly [4][5] - Misunderstanding of risks is a significant barrier to the exit of backward production capacity; recognizing and pricing risks through market mechanisms is vital for orderly exits [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of the steel industry in China, highlighting the expected decline in steel demand and net exports in 2025, while also emphasizing the potential for profit recovery if outdated production capacity is phased out [4][5][7]. Group 1: Industry Events - On July 1, 2025, the Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting focused on advancing the construction of a unified national market and high-quality development of the marine economy, emphasizing the need to address low-price disorderly competition and improve product quality [4]. - A survey by Mysteel indicated that approximately half of the steel mills received notifications about a 30% production cut for sintering machines from July 4 to 15, 2025 [4]. Group 2: Demand and Export Forecast - Domestic steel demand in 2025 is projected to be around 850 million tons, a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year, equating to a reduction of 13 million tons compared to 2024 [5]. - The net export of steel is expected to decline to the levels of 2023, with a forecasted decrease of 2.1 million tons year-on-year, influenced by anti-dumping policies from South Korea and Vietnam, as well as increased tariffs from the U.S. [5]. Group 3: Production and Profitability - From January to May 2025, China's crude steel production was 432 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.59%, with the largest reductions occurring in Hubei, Guangdong, and Hebei [6]. - The total profit of the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry in the first five months of 2025 was 31.69 billion yuan, marking a return to profitability year-on-year [8]. - The comprehensive gross profit of the steel industry in the first half of 2025 was 281 yuan per ton, an increase of 52.45% year-on-year, indicating potential for further profit recovery if outdated production capacity is systematically eliminated [8]. Group 4: Historical Policy Impact - The article reviews past policies aimed at limiting steel production capacity, noting that the 2016 policy aimed to reduce excess capacity by 100 to 150 million tons, which led to significant price increases in the steel market [9]. - In the context of the "dual carbon" policy, the 2020 directive to compress crude steel production resulted in a 35% increase in steel prices from February to March 2021, despite a decline in the broader market [9]. Group 5: Valuation Metrics - As of July 2, 2025, the price-to-book ratio (PB_LF) of the steel sector was 0.83, indicating a 23% upside potential compared to the average since 2013, with significant room for growth relative to peaks in 2017 and 2021 [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - L2509 showed a slight oscillation, closing at 7,284 yuan/ton. On the supply side, this week's PE production increased by 3.95% week-on-week to 618,900 tons. On the demand side, the average operating rate of downstream PE products last week decreased by 0.05% week-on-week, continuing the seasonal decline. In terms of inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 2.19% week-on-week to 438,400 tons, while the social inventory increased by 9.09% week-on-week to 507,100 tons, with no significant overall inventory pressure. In July, there are many PE maintenance devices, but the previous new capacity put into operation partially offsets the maintenance losses, and the current production is still at a high level. The off-season for downstream continues, and the terminal's willingness to stock up is low. The downstream operating rate is expected to maintain a narrow downward trend. In terms of cost, the US and Vietnam reached a trade agreement, and Iran suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, leading to a recent increase in international oil prices. In the short term, both supply and demand of LLDPE are weak, and L2509 is expected to show an oscillating trend. Pay attention to the support around 7,200 and the resistance around 7,340 on the daily K-line [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene was 7,284 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the closing price of the January contract was 7,262 yuan/ton, unchanged; the closing price of the May contract was 7,248 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the closing price of the September contract was 7,284 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. The trading volume was 243,442 lots, down 26,719 lots; the open interest was 444,132 lots, up 839 lots. The spread between the January and May contracts was 14 yuan, down 5 yuan. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 359,447 lots, down 488 lots; the short positions were 399,519 lots, up 2,868 lots; the net long positions were -40,072 lots, down 3,356 lots [2] 现货市场 - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,296.52 yuan/ton, up 26.09 yuan; the average price in East China was 7,398.54 yuan/ton, up 0.24 yuan. The basis was 12.52 yuan, up 30.09 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 62.02 US dollars per barrel, up 0.04 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 572.25 US dollars per ton, up 1.5 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 861 US dollars per ton, unchanged; the CFR mid - price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 851 US dollars per ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national operating rate of PE in petrochemical plants was 76.44%, down 2.25 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film was 47.96%, down 1.19 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes was 28.33%, down 0.34 percentage points; the operating rate of PE agricultural film was 12.35%, up 0.23 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 14.38%, down 0.04 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 14.5%, down 0.12 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 10.73%, down 0.27 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 10.72%, down 0.28 percentage points [2] Industry News - The US government revoked a restrictive licensing requirement imposed on two major ethane producers and exporters, Enterprise Products Partners and Energy Transfer, a few weeks ago. The 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized the in - depth promotion of the construction of a unified national market, the governance of low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations, the guidance of enterprises to improve product quality, and the promotion of the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. The US and Vietnam reached a trade agreement, with the US imposing a 20% tariff on imported Vietnamese goods and Vietnam "fully opening its market" to the US [2]

国债期货日报 2025/7/3 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 项目 最新 | | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 64924 | 109.105 | 0% T主力成交量 | | 1409↑ | | | 51486 TF主力收盘价 | 106.255 | 0.01% TF主力成交量 | | 156↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 24843 | 102.514 | 0.01% TS主力成交量 | | 156↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 121.130 | -0.02% TL主力成交量 | 72609 | 387↑ | | 期货价差 | TL2512-2509价差 | -0.13 | +0.01↑ T09-TL09价差 | -12.03 | 0.03↑ | | | T2512-2509价差 | 0.08 | -0.00↓ TF09-T09价差 | -2.85 | 0.03↑ | | | TF2512-2509价差 | 0.11 | +0.02↑ TS09-T09价差 | -6.59 | 0.03↑ | | ...

Group 1: Overview of "Anti-Involution" Concept - The "Anti-Involution" concept was first introduced by the Central Committee a year ago, and it is expected to enter a new phase during the upcoming July Politburo meeting[1] - The focus of the upcoming meeting will be on addressing low-price and disorderly competition among enterprises, indicating a shift in strategy[1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to be released in the second half of the year, emphasizing the strengthening of domestic circulation and integrating "Anti-Involution" as a key topic[1] Group 2: Gains and Losses in the Past Year - The "Anti-Involution" initiative has gained traction at the top-level design, appearing in several important national meetings, suggesting it will be a main theme in the "14th Five-Year Plan" period[2] - However, issues related to "involutionary" competition remain unresolved, with industrial capacity utilization rates still low, and a significant decline observed in the first quarter of this year[2] - The industrial profit margin has dropped to 5.3% in May, indicating negative impacts on operational efficiency due to "involutionary" competition[2] Group 3: Focus Areas for Current "Anti-Involution" Efforts - Current efforts should concentrate on addressing macroeconomic supply-demand imbalances, particularly in sectors like new energy vehicles, photovoltaic components, and e-commerce platforms[3] - Manufacturing sectors, especially electrical machinery, computer communications, and automotive industries, are identified as having more pronounced "involution" issues[3] - The government is expected to implement targeted measures in these key industries to mitigate "involution" challenges[3] Group 4: Future Directions and Risks - Future "Anti-Involution" strategies will rely on industry self-regulation, but progress may be slow; specific plans for resolving structural contradictions in key industries are anticipated post-July Politburo meeting[4] - Historical experiences from the "Supply-Side Reform" period suggest that quantitative KPIs for capacity reduction will be introduced for key industries[4] - Risks include potential policy shortcomings, unexpected changes in the domestic economic landscape, and unforeseen fluctuations in exports[4]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual products, the outlook for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate is "oscillating" [5][8][9] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Central Financial Conference re - emphasized the orderly elimination of backward production capacity, strengthening the expectation of supply contraction of silicon, leading to a significant rise in new energy metal prices. In the short - to - medium term, the price increase of industrial silicon and polysilicon has a positive impact on lithium carbonate. In the long term, low prices may accelerate the capacity clearance of domestic self - priced products, but the long - term over - supply problem of lithium carbonate may limit the price increase [2] Group 3: Summary by Product Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Supply - side policy expectations are positive, and silicon prices are oscillating upwards [5] - **Information Analysis**: As of July 2, the spot price of industrial silicon has slightly rebounded. Domestic inventory decreased by 0.2% month - on - month. In May, the domestic monthly output was 308,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%. Exports in May were 55,652 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.5%. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in May was 92.9GW, a year - on - year increase of 388.0% [5] - **Main Logic**: Sudden production cuts by large northwest factories support prices. If the production cut scope expands, the supply - demand situation in July may improve. The southwest is in the wet season, and the resumption of production is slower than usual. The demand side is weak, and the inventory has slightly decreased this week. As the silicon price rebounds, supply may recover, and inventory may accumulate again [5] - **Outlook**: The fundamental over - supply situation of industrial silicon remains unchanged. The current price increase is driven by policy expectations, and the price is expected to oscillate [5][6] Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: The anti - involution policy has taken effect, and the polysilicon price has rebounded significantly [6] - **Information Analysis**: The average transaction price of N - type re - feedstock is 34,700 yuan/ton, a slight increase. In May, the export volume increased by 66.2% month - on - month, and the import volume decreased by 16.9% month - on - month. The cumulative new photovoltaic installed capacity from January to May increased by 150% year - on - year [6] - **Main Logic**: The polysilicon futures price hit the daily limit. Short - term production is low, and it is expected to rise to over 100,000 tons in June - July. The demand may weaken in the second half of the year after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation [8] - **Outlook**: The demand for polysilicon may weaken in the second half of the year, but the anti - involution policy may cause large fluctuations in supply. The price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: Driven by demand expectations and sentiment, the lithium price remains oscillating [9] - **Information Analysis**: On July 2, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 1.88%. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price increased by 350 yuan/ton. Zhongkuang Resources plans to upgrade its 25,000 - ton lithium salt production line [9] - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment is good, and demand production scheduling expectations are positive. Supply is increasing, and demand is expected to be good in July. Social inventory is accumulating, and warehouse receipt inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see or short at high prices after a rebound [9] - **Outlook**: Supply and demand remain in surplus, but the short - term reduction of warehouse receipts supports the price. The price is expected to oscillate [9]

交易提示 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-7-3） | 铁矿：近期铁矿石现货价格偏弱，盘面受情绪影响拉涨，基差继续收窄。 | 本期全球铁矿石发运总量、到港量双双下滑，但整体处于近年来同期高位 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 水平，后期铁矿发运有冲量预期，到港压力或增大。产业端淡季，五大钢 | 铁矿石 | 反弹 | 材产量增，铁水淡季不淡，铁矿港口库存仍旧在去库，240 | 以上的高铁水 | | | | | | | | | 仍旧能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水状况。供给侧改革消息扰动叠加唐山 | 限产带动黑色价格上涨，原料跟涨。中长期看，铁矿石整体呈现供应逐步 | | | | | | | | | | | | 回升、需求相对低位、港口库存步入累库通道的局面，铁矿供需过剩格局 | 不变，介于短期情绪扰动，建议前期空单离场观望。 | | | | | | | | | | | | 煤焦：供给侧改革消息扰动叠加唐山限产带动黑色价格上涨，原料跟涨。 | 煤焦 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed a strong upward trend on July 3, 2025, driven by the "anti - involution" sentiment. In the short - term, both may continue the strong trend, but the price fluctuations may intensify. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations. [1] - For industrial silicon, the supply may decrease after offsetting increases and decreases, and the demand from polysilicon enterprises may increase, while the demand from the organic silicon sector is weak. [1] - For polysilicon, the supply is expected to increase slightly, but the market demand is slowing down. The price increase is mainly driven by supply - side reform expectations and market sentiment. [1] Summaries by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Changes - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) increased by 1.83% to 8,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) increased by 1.70% to 8,950 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 5.73% to 8,210 yuan/ton. [1] Supply and Demand - Supply: Northern large factories have production reduction plans, and the southwest production area is about to enter the wet season with lower power costs and a steady increase in enterprise operations. After offsetting, the supply may decrease. [1] - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintain production reduction, and some silicon material factories plan to resume production in July, bringing some demand increments. The organic silicon sector has a strong willingness to reduce production and support prices, but the demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined. [1] Investment Strategy - In the short - term, the price may continue the strong trend, but the upward pressure will increase after the rebound. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations and continuously monitor the actual production dynamics of silicon enterprises. [1] Polysilicon Price Changes - N - type dense material increased by 2.99% to 34.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon re - feeding material increased by 3.17% to 32.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon dense material increased by 3.33% to 31.0 yuan/kg, polysilicon cauliflower material increased by 3.51% to 29.5 yuan/kg, and the closing price of the futures main contract increased by 7.19% to 35,050 yuan/ton. [1] Supply and Demand - Supply: Silicon material enterprises maintain production reduction, and some may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output is expected to increase slightly, remaining below 100,000 tons. [1] - Demand: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials, and continuous decline in the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. The market demand is slowing down, and the transactions are weak. [1] Investment Strategy - In the short - term, driven by the long - position sentiment, the price may continue the strong trend, but the price fluctuations may intensify due to limited fundamental improvement. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations and continuously monitor the actual operations of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain and the implementation of supply - side reform. [1] Other Information - On July 1, 2025, the Suzhou Ecological Environment Bureau planned to make a decision on the environmental impact assessment of Suzhou Qizhu New Materials Co., Ltd.'s project. Suzhou Qitian New Materials Co., Ltd. has four holding subsidiaries and three production bases, with a lithium - battery electrolyte additive production capacity of 36,900 tons/year and a functional organic silicon material production capacity of 26,700 tons/year. [1] - The Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized promoting the construction of a unified national market, governing low - price and disorderly competition, and guiding enterprises to improve product quality and eliminate backward production capacity. [1]