本周，法国10年期国债收益率累计下跌0.5个基点，周五（5月16日）欧市尾盘报3.260%，周一至周三震 荡上行，最高达到3.381%，周四和周五回落。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of Treasury bond futures rose and fell unevenly, with the T2506 contract rising 0.02% and its trading volume decreasing. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each Treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates also showed mixed trends. The yields of key - term Treasury bonds in China and overseas also had different changes. With the progress of Sino - US talks, the market risk appetite increased, and the prices of Treasury bond futures declined, with the possibility of increased short - term fluctuations [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Contents Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The prices of Treasury bond futures on the previous trading day showed mixed trends. For example, the T2506 contract rose 0.02%, while the TF2509 contract fell 0.08%. The trading volume of each contract also varied, with the TL2506 having a trading volume of 67,722 [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of each contract changed. Some contracts decreased, such as the TS2506 with a decrease of 7,948, while others increased, like the TS2509 with an increase of 1,873 [2] - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: The inter - delivery spreads of each contract also had different changes. For example, the inter - delivery spread of TS2506 increased from - 0.128 to - 0.110 [2] - **IRR of CTD Bonds**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each Treasury bond futures was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR7 - day interest rate decreased by 0.4bp, DR007 interest rate increased by 0.16bp, and GC007 interest rate increased by 0bp [2] - **Yields of Key - term Treasury Bonds in China**: The yields of key - term Treasury bonds in China also showed mixed trends. The 10Y - term Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.43bp to 1.67%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 19.29bp [2] - **Yields of Key - term Treasury Bonds Overseas**: The yields of key - term Treasury bonds overseas also had different changes. The US 10Y Treasury bond yield decreased by 8bp, the German 10Y Treasury bond yield increased by 0bp, and the Japanese 10Y Treasury bond yield increased by 2.3bp [2] Macro and Policy Information - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 645 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on May 15, with an operation rate of 1.40%. The same day, 158.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 125 billion yuan of MLF matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 219.1 billion yuan [3] - **Market Environment**: The Sino - US talks achieved substantial progress, canceling some additional tariffs and establishing a Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism. The market risk appetite increased. The US April unadjusted CPI rose 2.3% year - on - year, lower than expected for the third consecutive month, and the US Treasury bond yields declined [3] - **Economic Data**: Affected by external shocks and seasonal changes, the manufacturing prosperity level in April declined. Exports (in US dollars) increased by 8.1% year - on - year, with the growth rate slowing down. The government bonds promoted the social financing stock to increase by 8.7% year - on - year, and the M2 balance increased by 8% year - on - year, both with accelerated growth rates compared to the previous month [3]

日本10年期国债收益率下跌2.5个基点，至1.45%。 ...

Report Information - Report Date: May 15, 2025 [2] - Team: Research Center's Macro Team [2] Global Asset Market Performance 10-Year Treasury Yields - On May 14, 2025, the 10-year Treasury yields of the US, UK, and France were 4.538%, 4.712%, and 3.378% respectively [3]. - Latest changes in yields for major economies varied, with the US up 0.071 and Switzerland down -0.009 [3]. - One-year changes showed significant differences, like the UK up 0.491 and Japan down -0.780 [3]. 2-Year Treasury Yields - On May 14, 2025, the 2-year Treasury yields of the US, UK, and Germany were 3.980%, 4.018%, and 1.938% respectively [3]. - Latest changes in yields had different trends, such as the US up 0.100 and South Korea down -0.024 [3]. - One-year changes also differed greatly, like the US down -0.990 and Japan up 0.423 [3]. Exchange Rates - On May 14, 2025, the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate was 5.638, and the latest change was 0.53% [3]. - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates were 7.208 and 7.211 respectively, with latest changes of 0.05% and 0.17% [3]. - One-year changes in exchange rates showed various trends, such as the US dollar to Brazilian real up 11.06% and the US dollar to Malaysian ringgit down -9.52% [3]. Stock Indices - On May 14, 2025, the S&P 500 index was 5892.580, and the latest change was 0.10% [3]. - The Hang Seng Index was 23640.650, with a latest change of 2.30% [3]. - One-year changes in stock indices also varied, like the S&P 500 up 13.74% and the French CAC down -2.00% [3]. Credit Bond Indices - Latest changes in credit bond indices showed different trends, with the US investment - grade credit bond index down -0.30% and the euro - zone high - yield credit bond index unchanged at 0.00% [3][4]. - One - year changes were positive across the board, with the US investment - grade credit bond index up 4.70% and the emerging economies high - yield credit bond index up 12.31% [4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, and SSE 50 were 3403.95, 3943.21, and 2753.79 respectively, with corresponding daily increases of 0.86%, 1.21%, and 1.69% [5]. Valuation - The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, and S&P 500 were 12.72, 11.08, and 25.21 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.15, 0.15, and 0.03 [5]. Fund Flows - The latest net inflow of A - shares was 149.28, while the 5 - day average was -304.29 [5]. Trading Volume - The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 13167.27, with a环比 increase of 252.02 [5]. Basis and Spread - The basis of IF, IH, and IC were -35.81, -16.19, and -101.32 respectively, with corresponding spreads of -0.91%, -0.59%, and -1.75% [5]. Treasury Futures Trading Data Closing Prices and Price Changes - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.535, 105.810, 108.690, and 106.080 respectively, with price increases of 0.17%, 0.06%, 0.15%, and 0.04% [6]. Funding Rates - The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.4412%, 1.5440%, and 1.6530% respectively, with daily changes of -9.00 BP, 1.00 BP, and -1.00 BP [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April 2025, the growth rate of social financing increased due to the low base, mainly contributed by government bonds, while credit performance was sluggish [2][9]. - The negative growth of residents' short - term loans exceeded the seasonal level, and the demand for enterprises' short - term loans was overdrawn in March, with weak performance of medium - and long - term loans under internal and external pressures [3][4]. - Recently, the credit cycle has a greater impact on interest rates than the export cycle, and the export chain is not the main factor disturbing the credit cycle [5][6]. - The interest rate point corresponding to the financing data is around 1.8%, and the credit cycle may reverse at the bottom within the year [7][25]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Social Financing and Credit Situation - **Social Financing Growth Driven by Government Bonds**: In April 2025, the stock social financing growth rate rose by 0.3 percentage points to 8.7%. Government bonds contributed 84% of the new social financing, with an increase of 1.07 trillion yuan year - on - year to 976.2 billion yuan. In contrast, RMB loans in the social financing caliber decreased by 250.5 billion yuan year - on - year to 84.4 billion yuan, hitting a record low for the same period [2][9]. - **Residents' Credit**: In April, residents' sector credit decreased by 5 billion yuan year - on - year to - 521.6 billion yuan. Short - term loans decreased by 50.1 billion yuan year - on - year to - 401.9 billion yuan, a record low for the same period. The potential unemployment pressure increased, which affected residents' short - term loans. Medium - and long - term loans decreased by 12.31 billion yuan, and the sales volume growth rate of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities improved compared with the same period last year [3][14]. - **Enterprise Credit**: In April, new enterprise credit decreased by 25 billion yuan year - on - year to 61 billion yuan. Short - term loans decreased by 7 billion yuan year - on - year to - 48 billion yuan, and medium - and long - term loans decreased by 16 billion yuan year - on - year to 25 billion yuan. The negative growth of short - term loans exceeded the seasonal level, possibly due to the over - borrowing in March. The medium - and long - term loan balance growth rate continued to decline by 0.18 percentage points to 8.8% [4][18]. 3.2 Impact of Credit and Export Cycles on Interest Rates - **Greater Impact of Credit Cycle on Interest Rates**: Since 2024, the new export order index has performed well, but the 10 - year treasury bond yield has gradually declined. The decline trend of enterprise medium - and long - term loan growth rate is more consistent with the treasury bond trend, indicating that the domestic credit cycle has a greater impact on interest rates than the export cycle [5][19]. - **Limited Impact of Export Chain on Credit**: After detailed calculations, the proportion of credit directly and indirectly related to exports in the overall enterprise credit scale is about 20% in recent years, suggesting that domestic factors are the main forces affecting credit [6][24]. 3.3 Interest Rate and Credit Outlook - **Equilibrium Interest Rate Point**: As of April, the growth rate of the stock social financing excluding government bonds was 6.02%, slightly up 0.1 percentage point from March, corresponding to an interest rate point of 1.82%. The suspension of tariff shocks may have two - sided effects, and the credit cycle may reverse at the bottom within the year [7][25].

智通财经5月15日电，美国10年期国债收益率升至4.55%，为一个月高点。 ...

Group 1 - The yield on Japan's 5-year government bonds increased by 2.5 basis points, reaching 0.99% [1]

澳大利亚10年期国债收益率涨7个基点，报4.55%。 ...

英国国债继续下跌，10年期英国国债收益率上涨5个基点至4.72%。 ...

值得注意的是，央行在一季度货币政策执行报告中指出将"继续从宏观审慎的角度观察、评估债市运行 情况，关注国债收益率的变化，视市场供求状况择机恢复操作。"今年1月，央行宣布阶段性暂停在公开 市场买入国债，维护流动性和债券市场平稳运行。 招商证券固定收益首席分析师张伟指出，历史上"双降"公布后，1年期国债收益率倾向于回落，因为"双 降"后将直接利好资金面转松，但是10年期国债收益率走势分化较大。去年9月"双降"公布后，长端利率 阶段性上行，一方面是风险偏好大幅改善，另一方面是房地产政策和财政政策加码发力。 光大证券固定收益首席分析师张旭认为，央行重启国债买卖，应该在债市供给明显加大、市场担心债券 供过于求时买入。此时市场对于央行的买入操作相对不敏感，即相同净买入规模对于利率的影响低于供 不应求时。他表示，倘若市场在较长时段里一直处于强烈的"牛市思维"，央行的国债买卖操作有可能陷 入被动。 自中国人民银行宣布新一轮降准降息后，国债收益率走势出现明显分化，截至5月13日，1年期中债国债 到期收益率较月初(5月6日)下行4.93个基点至1.4131%，10年期、30年期国债收益率分别较月初上行5.06 个基点、5.2个基 ...