1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy - chemical products on February 5, 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride, and gives an "oscillating" view for each product [1][2][4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices rose significantly. WTI March contract rose $1.93 to $65.14/barrel (3.05% increase), Brent April contract rose $2.13 to $69.46/barrel (3.16% increase), and SC2603 rose 15.2 yuan to 473.5 yuan/barrel (3.32% increase). The US - Iran negotiation is facing twists and turns. EIA reported that US crude and distillate inventories decreased while gasoline inventories increased last week. Cold - snap - induced output decline supports oil prices, but geopolitical variables cause fluctuations. It is recommended that investors participate with light positions [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of fuel oil (FU2603) and low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2604) rebounded. The supply of both high - and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be sufficient, while the bunker fuel加注 activity is expected to increase before the Spring Festival. Affected by geopolitics and crude oil costs, the fundamentals are mixed with long and short factors, and there is pressure in the follow - up. Attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract (BU2603) rebounded. This week, the social inventory rate increased, the refinery inventory level decreased, and the plant operating rate decreased. In the early and middle of February, the inventory in the north is for downstream stocking, and the inventory in the south has some arbitrage demand. During the Spring Festival, the refinery and social inventories will increase. The asphalt is less volatile than crude oil, and the cracking spread has been repaired. The basis has weakened. Refineries are looking for alternative raw materials, and the production schedule may be adjusted later. Attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and raw material imports [2][4]. - **Polyester**: TA605, EG2605, and PX 603 all rose on Wednesday. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are slightly differentiated and generally weak. Multiple MEG devices have restart, maintenance, and shutdown plans. With the decline of crude oil prices and the implementation of polyester production cuts, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the first quarter. Polyester raw material prices are expected to oscillate with costs. Attention should be paid to unexpected device changes, cost - end price fluctuations, and the risk of insufficient demand recovery in late February [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contracts (RU2605, NR, BR) all rose. As of February 1, China's natural rubber social inventory increased. The natural rubber exports from Cote d'Ivoire in January decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The rubber fundamentals show increasing supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the impact of external macro - factors [5]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot prices in different regions and the prices of downstream products are given. The domestic methanol production is expected to decrease slightly in February, and the import volume will decline. The demand from eastern MTO devices will decrease. The decline in Iranian shipments will support the price, but the reduction of MTO device load may put pressure on inventory reduction. The methanol price is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [5]. - **Polyolefin**: On Wednesday, the prices and production profits of polypropylene and polyethylene are provided. The supply is expected to increase slightly. In February, downstream enterprises will enter the holiday, leading to passive inventory increase. After the Spring Festival, the market will start to digest inventory. The fundamentals are not strongly supported in February, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation of refineries and society. The polyolefin price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Wednesday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China adjusted strongly. In February, the enterprise maintenance is less, and the production will remain high. The real - estate construction is weakening, and the demand for PVC downstream products is limited. The "rush - to - export" demand is generated due to the cancellation of export tax - rebate on April 1. There is an expectation of supply reduction in the future, and the PVC price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6][7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on February 5, 2026, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, basis change, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that as of the week ending January 30, US crude and distillate inventories decreased while gasoline inventories increased due to winter storms. Crude oil production dropped to the lowest level since November 2024, and the crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma decreased by 743,000 barrels [11]. - The Iranian Foreign Minister clarified the official position on the Iran - US talks in Oman, stating that the talks will be held at around 10 a.m. on the 6th in Muscat. Earlier, an Iranian official source said the talks were cancelled due to new US conditions and differences in the negotiation issues [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European - line container shipping, p - xylene, and bottle - chip [13][15][17][19][21][23][25][27][28]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle - chip [30][33][37][38][40][41]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as fuel oil (01 - 05, 05 - 09), asphalt (main and sub - main contracts), European - line container shipping index monthly spread, PTA (01 - 05, 05 - 09), ethylene glycol (01 - 05, 05 - 09), PP (01 - 05, 05 - 09), LLDPE (01 - 05, 05 - 09), and natural rubber (01 - 05, 05 - 09) [43][45][48][51][53][55][57]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: The report shows the spread and ratio charts of inter - variety of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil (internal and external markets, B - W), fuel oil (high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio), BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [59][62][64]. - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report presents the production profit and processing fee charts of various energy - chemical products, such as LLDPE, PP, PTA processing fee, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash - flow [66][68]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won multiple "Outstanding Analyst" awards and led the energy research team to win many industry service awards. She has over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research and has served many listed companies [71]. - **Du Bingqin**: Director of Energy and Chemical Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in Applied Economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison. She has won multiple industry analyst awards and her team has won industry service awards. She is deeply involved in domestic and foreign energy industry research [72]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst of natural rubber and polyester at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a master's degree in finance. She has won multiple analyst awards and her team has won a research team award. She is mainly engaged in the research of related futures varieties [73]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst of methanol, propylene, pure benzene, PE, PP, and PVC at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with an engineering master's degree. He has passed the CFA Level III exam and has experience combining financial theory with industrial operations [74].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The cost side of PE and PP is disturbed by factors such as the rebound of international oil prices and propane, and the market sentiment is cautious, with the disk tending to fluctuate. The supply - demand fundamentals of both are weak, with strong supply and weak demand, and the de - stocking pressure is large. The short - term disk rebound sustainability needs to pay attention to the macro - level guidance and the de - stocking process [2] - It is recommended to wait and see for L/PP in the unilateral strategy, as the current supply - demand fundamentals are weak and the rebound sustainability may be limited [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6918 yuan/ton (+53), PP main contract at 6801 yuan/ton (+71). LL North China spot was 6730 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot 6850 yuan/ton (+50), PP East China spot 6680 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 188 yuan/ton (-53), LL East China basis - 68 yuan/ton (-3), PP East China basis - 121 yuan/ton (-71) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 85.4% (+0.7%), PP operating rate 74.8% (-1.2%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 16.5 yuan/ton (-128.9), PP oil - based production profit - 343.5 yuan/ton (-128.9), PDH - based PP production profit - 362.8 yuan/ton (+25.2) [1] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was - 41.4 yuan/ton (-52.8), PP import profit - 286.8 yuan/ton (-2.9), PP export profit - 79.5 dollars/ton (+0.4) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 34.6% (-1.8%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate 42.1% (-2.9%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate 42.0% (+0.0%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate 64.2% (+0.2%) [1] 2. Market Analysis - **PE**: The cost side is disturbed by the rebound of international oil prices. The supply is increasing and the demand is decreasing. The supply pressure is expected to rise due to the restart of many devices and more incoming resources. The demand is in the off - season with weak order follow - up. The supply - demand fundamentals are weakening, and the de - stocking pressure is large [2] - **PP**: The cost side is disturbed by the rebound of propane and international oil prices. The supply is difficult to be significantly supported, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The supply - demand structure is weak, and the disk is affected by the cost and macro - sentiment [2] 3. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Wait and see for L/PP, as the current supply - demand fundamentals are weak and the short - term cost side fluctuates strongly, and the rebound sustainability may be limited [3] - **Inter - period**: None [4] - **Inter - variety**: None [4]

Oil Market - On Monday, oil prices saw a significant decline, with WTI March contract closing down by $3.07 to $62.14 per barrel, a drop of 4.71% [2] - Brent April contract closed down by $3.02 to $66.3 per barrel, a decrease of 4.36% [2] - SC2603 closed at 450 yuan per barrel, down by 22.7 yuan, a decline of 4.8% [2] - Iranian President ordered to initiate nuclear negotiations with the U.S., which may lead to high-level talks in the coming days [2] - OPEC+ decided to maintain March oil production unchanged due to weak seasonal demand [2] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil FU2603 fell by 7.01% to 2679 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil LU2604 dropped by 5.92% to 3128 yuan/ton [3] - Supply from Western arbitrage shipments is expected to remain high, keeping the low-sulfur market well supplied [3][4] - Demand for marine fuel oil is anticipated to increase before the Spring Festival [3] Asphalt - The main contract for asphalt BU2603 decreased by 4.879% to 3299 yuan/ton [5] - Northern regions are primarily focused on downstream stocking, while overall refinery inventory levels are expected to rise as transportation halts during the Spring Festival [5][6] Rubber - Shanghai rubber main contract RU2605 fell by 380 yuan/ton to 15980 yuan/ton, with NR main contract down by 310 yuan/ton to 12925 yuan/ton [6] - Natural rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone increased by 3.32% to 10.57 million tons [6] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5092 yuan/ton, down 3.38%, while EG2605 closed at 3767 yuan/ton, down 3.73% [7] - PX futures closed at 7150 yuan/ton, also down 3.38% [7] - The overall polyester production and sales are estimated to be low, around 20-30% [7] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2230 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $269 to $273 per ton [8] - Domestic production is expected to slightly decrease in February, while imports are anticipated to decline from high levels [8] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polypropylene in East China ranged from 6600 to 6780 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [9] - The market is entering a holiday phase, leading to an increase in inventory [9] PVC - PVC prices in East China increased, with prices for calcium carbide method ranging from 4770 to 4860 yuan/ton [10] - The demand for PVC in downstream construction is expected to weaken as real estate activity declines [10] Urea - Urea prices remained stable, with some regions experiencing slight adjustments [11] - Daily production is fluctuating above 210,000 tons, with expectations for further supply increases [11] Soda Ash - Soda ash prices remained mostly stable, with some regions seeing slight declines [12] - The industry operating rate was reported at 82.29%, down 2.69 percentage points [12] Glass - Glass prices slightly decreased, with the average price at 1106 yuan/ton [14] - The market is facing pressure from declining demand as the Spring Festival approaches [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The sharp rise in coking coal and coke futures prices has boosted the short - term market sentiment. PE and PP prices have continued to rebound, but the improvement in their supply - demand fundamentals is still limited. PE is facing a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand, with inventory reduction pressure. PP has a supply reduction expectation, but the demand improvement is insufficient, and the price rebound space is limited [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6,642 yuan/ton (+63), PP main contract at 6,486 yuan/ton (+63). LL North China spot was 6,500 yuan/ton (+130), LL East China spot at 6,530 yuan/ton (+40), PP East China spot at 6,250 yuan/ton (+30). LL North China basis was - 142 yuan/ton (+67), LL East China basis - 112 yuan/ton (-23), PP East China basis - 236 yuan/ton (-33) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 83.2% (+0.6%), PP operating rate was 76.7% (-0.1%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 174.8 yuan/ton (+90.8), PP oil - based production profit was - 335.2 yuan/ton (+90.8), PDH - made PP production profit was - 815.4 yuan/ton (-23.8) [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was 200.9 yuan/ton (+11.8), PP import profit was - 279.2 yuan/ton (+31.8), PP export profit was - 31.5 US dollars/ton (-4.0) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 39.0% (-4.9%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 48.4% (+0.2%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 43.1% (-0.6%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 63.2% (+0.0%) [2]. Market Analysis - **PE**: The sharp rise in coking coal and coke futures prices has boosted the short - term sentiment. However, the improvement in PE's supply - demand fundamentals is limited. The supply pressure still exists due to new device production and expected increase in low - cost imported goods, while the demand is weak as it is in the off - season. The pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand continues, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory [3]. - **PP**: The sharp rise in coking coal and coke futures prices has led to a warmer market sentiment. The price has continued to rebound due to supply reduction expectation and cost support. The supply is expected to decrease due to more temporary maintenance, but the demand improvement is insufficient, and the price rebound space is limited [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: LLDPE and PP are recommended to be on the sidelines. The short - term supply - demand contradiction has not been improved, but the geopolitical situation has intensified cost - side disturbances. The price continues to be relatively strong. Attention should be paid to the implementation of upstream device maintenance [5]. - **Inter - period**: No strategy provided [5]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy provided [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot trading of propylene has continued to improve, and attention should be paid to the disturbances on the cost side [2][3]. - On the supply side, propylene production has remained at a high level, and the upstream start - up has steadily recovered. There is still no obvious phenomenon of PDH loss and maintenance in the short term. In January, some PDH devices are expected to be overhauled, and the supply pressure in the propylene market may be alleviated periodically [3]. - On the demand side, downstream buyers enter the market at low prices for rigid - demand procurement. The spot trading of propylene has improved, and the overall start - up of PP powder has increased. The demand for propylene at the PP end is expected to rise. The profit of butanol and octanol is acceptable, and the start - up is expected to remain stable. The start - up of PO has declined slightly due to the reduction of some device loads. However, propylene is expected to rise further, which will continue to squeeze downstream profits, and the overall increase in demand - side support may be limited [3]. - The international oil price has rebounded slightly due to the intensification of geopolitical situations, and the disturbance of oil prices has increased. The CP official price of propane in January has risen more than expected, and the cost - side support has recently strengthened. However, the rebound space is still limited under the limited improvement of the supply - demand fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the changes in the cost side and the implementation of PDH device overhauls [3]. - The strategy suggests waiting and seeing. The supply - demand situation has improved slightly in the short term, but the support is still limited. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate strongly under the boost of sentiment, waiting for marginal device overhauls [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Propylene Basis Structure - This part may include figures such as the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the Shandong basis of propylene, PL01 - 03 contract spreads, PL03 - 05 contract spreads, and the market prices of propylene in East China, Shandong, and South China [5][7][13]. II. Propylene Production Profit and Startup Rate - Relevant figures include the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH capacity utilization rate of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate, the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, and propylene import profit [5][21][24]. III. Propylene Downstream Profit and Startup Rate - It involves figures such as the production profit and startup rate of PP powder, epoxy propane, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - ketone [5][39][52]. IV. Propylene Inventory - This part includes figures of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [5][65].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand situation remains loose, and the market rebound is weak. The overall start - up of propylene has slightly increased, and the start - up of some downstream products has recovered, but downstream resistance to high - priced raw materials exists. The cost side has uncertainties, and the rebound space of the market is limited [1][2][3] Summary by Directory I. Propylene Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price [6][8][10] II. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - Figures cover the difference between China CFR propylene and Japan CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [16][18][21] III. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Relevant figures are the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [32][34] IV. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - Figures include the production profit and capacity utilization rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - ketone [40][41][48] V. Propylene Inventory - Relevant figures are the in - plant inventory of propylene and PP powder [66]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical tensions have eased, leading to a significant drop in international oil prices, which in turn has weakened the cost - side support for propylene. With the expectation of a loose propylene supply - demand situation remaining unchanged, the market is likely to experience weak and volatile trends. The supply side has some short - term support due to PDH device maintenance, while the demand side's support may decline as the price increase squeezes downstream profits. Attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - This section includes figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China and North China propylene basis, propylene 01 - 05 contract, and East China and Shandong propylene market prices [6][9][11] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - It involves figures such as the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization [17][19][22] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profits - This part contains figures on the price differences between South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, and propylene import profits [33][35] 4. Propylene Downstream Profits and Capacity Utilization - It includes the production profits and capacity utilization rates of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [41][50][56] 5. Propylene Inventory - This section has figures on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [66]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The PE market is under pressure due to factors such as increased inventory, insufficient demand, new device production, and weakened cost support from falling oil prices. Future focus should be on cost - side disturbances [2] - The PP market is affected by weakening costs (falling oil and propane prices). Supply is increasing while demand fails to meet expectations, resulting in a loose supply - demand situation. Short - term pressure on the PP market is high, and attention should be paid to the impact on propane supply and marginal device operations [2] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for both L and PP in the single - side trading. For cross - period trading, conduct reverse spreads for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05. For cross - variety trading, shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [3] Summaries by Directory Market News and Key Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6929 yuan/ton (+19), and the PP main contract is 6618 yuan/ton (+23). LL and PP spot prices and basis have different changes [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate is 81.8% (-2.2%), and PP operating rate is 78.2% (+0.5%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is 434.2 yuan/ton (-18.2), PP oil - based production profit is - 135.8 yuan/ton (-18.2), and PDH - based PP production profit is 64.9 yuan/ton (-109.7) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit is - 165.0 yuan/ton (-56.8), PP import profit is - 537.9 yuan/ton (+16.1), and PP export profit is 26.9 dollars/ton (+3.3) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 42.9% (+7.3%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 52.2% (-0.7%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.3% (+0.0%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 61.2% (+0.5%) [1] Market Analysis - **PE**: After the holiday, inventory of major plastic producers has increased significantly. Demand is insufficient, and new device production and falling oil prices have weakened cost support. Supply is expected to increase, demand is lower than expected, and cost support is weakening. Future focus should be on cost - side disturbances [2] - **PP**: The recent weakening of the PP market is due to falling oil and propane prices. Supply is increasing, demand fails to meet expectations, and cost support is weak. Short - term pressure on the PP market is high, and attention should be paid to propane supply and marginal device operations [2] Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait and see for both L and PP [3] - **Cross - period**: Reverse spreads for L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 [3] - **Cross - variety**: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [3]

Macroeconomy - The central bank plans to intensify monetary policy regulation, maintain ample liquidity, and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply. It aims to explore the normalization of "swap facilities and stock repurchase and increase re - loans" and support securities, funds, and insurance companies to participate in market stability. The manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7% (+0.2%), and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5% (+0.2%). However, the PMI of small enterprises dropped to 47.3% (-2.0%)[2] - The closing prices of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices increased by 0.21%, 0.17%, 0.33%, and 0.28% respectively compared to the previous day. The basis of IM/IC expanded significantly, while that of IH/IF changed moderately[2] - The four major indices show a pattern of multiple strengths and few weaknesses. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on small and medium - cap index futures on dips, and the opportunity of band trading for large - cap index futures[2] Crude Oil - The situation in the Middle East has eased. The market is speculating about the Fed's potential interest rate cut in July and the expected production increase at the OPEC+ meeting in July. There are reports that Saudi Arabia may seek to increase production to regain lost market share[3] - Trump tweeted that he would lower oil prices and encourage the US to invest heavily in new oil fields. The number of US oil wells has dropped to the lowest level since November 2021. After the cooling of the Iran - Israel conflict, the risk premium has declined significantly, leading to a large - scale decline in crude oil prices. Although the summer peak season for crude oil is approaching, and US crude oil and refined product inventories continue to decline while refining activities increase, providing some support to oil prices, in the long - term, the price center of crude oil will move downward[3] - Attention should be paid to the support level of around $65 per barrel for the WTI main contract[3] Gold - In May, the year - on - year core PCE was 2.7% (previous value 2.6%, expected 2.6%), and the month - on - month was 0.2% (previous value 0.1%); the year - on - year overall PCE was 2.3%, and the month - on - month was 0.1%, both in line with expectations. The final value of the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in June was 60.7 (previous value 60.3), and the long - term inflation expectation dropped to 4%. The progress of trade negotiations has weakened the demand for hedging[4] - Powell's congressional testimony released a dovish stance, indicating that if tariffs do not cause a sharp rise in inflation, there may be an interest rate cut in September. The market's pricing of the probability of an interest rate cut in September has risen to 78% (CME data), but there are still differences in the stickiness of inflation[4] - Spot gold may test the resistance area of $3295 - $3306 per ounce. Investors need to pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls and PMI data in June and the impact of the "Big and Beautiful" bill[6] Silver - The "Big and Beautiful" bill was passed by the Senate on June 29. The CBO estimates that the US fiscal deficit will increase by $2.77 trillion in the next decade. The Fed has kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%. The median interest rate expectation for 2025 is 3.9% (the same as in March), and the expectations for 2026 - 2027 have been raised to 3.6%/3.4%. Seven voting members support no interest rate cut in 2025, and Powell emphasized that "tariff inflation is not a one - time shock"[7] - There is a certain possibility that the Fed will lower the policy interest rate in the second half of the year. When the Fed's easing expectation increases, the international silver price will show a stronger trend. The key support level is around $35 per ounce. Investors need to pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls data and PMI in June and be vigilant against the "hawkish surprise" that may suppress the easing expectation[7] Chemicals PTA - The spot price in East China is 4990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis is 190 yuan/ton. In July, PTA device maintenance and restart are concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 78.61%, a decrease of 2.94% month - on - month. The spot processing fee is 427.82 yuan/ton, an increase of 106.674 yuan/ton month - on - month. In mid - to - late June, 1.8 million tons of equipment entered the maintenance cycle (accounting for 3.2% of the total capacity), supporting the short - term de - stocking process. However, attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new devices in July[8] - The polyester factory load is maintained at 88.63%, a decrease of 0.61% month - on - month, the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load is 59.01%, a decrease of 1.66% month - on - month, and the terminal order days are 9.06 days, a decrease of 0.36 days month - on - month. The textile and clothing industry is entering the off - season, the demand side is continuously sluggish, and some enterprises have the expectation of reducing production. Short - term attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being[8] Ethylene Glycol - The spot price in East China is 4330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis is 57 yuan/ton. The overall operating load of ethylene glycol is 60.4%, an increase of 1.4% month - on - month, and the coal - based operating rate is 57.26%, an increase of 0.95% month - on - month. The weekly output is 36.97 tons, an increase of 0.85 tons compared with the previous week. The inventory in the main ports in East China has decreased by 3.13 tons to 50.57 tons and has been de - stocking for three consecutive weeks[9] - Affected by the conflict in the Middle East, 3 sets of equipment with a total capacity of 1.35 million tons in Iran have stopped production, while the restart plans of Saudi and Malaysian devices have boosted the import expectation. The polyester factory load and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load have both decreased, and the textile market has entered the off - season with some terminal industries having the expectation of reducing production. Short - term attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances, and the price will mainly move in a range. Radical investors can go short on rallies, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the pressure of increased imports[9] PVC - The mainstream spot price of Type 5 PVC in East China is 4740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton month - on - month; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 4980 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the price difference between ethylene and electricity is 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton month - on - month[10] - The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises last week was 78.09%, a decrease of 0.53% month - on - month and 1.64% year - on - year. The domestic downstream products enterprises have not improved significantly, and the transactions are still mainly for rigid demand. As of June 26, the PVC social inventory has increased by 1.03% to 57.52 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 38.06% year - on - year. The PVC fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the price will still fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[10][11] PP - The mainstream prices of PP raffia in North China, East China, and South China are 7174 yuan/ton, 7176 yuan/ton, and 7298 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 4 yuan/ton, 14 yuan/ton, and 11 yuan/ton[12] - The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene last week was 79.30%, a decrease of 0.54% month - on - month. The domestic polypropylene production was 78.92 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons compared with last week, a growth rate of 0.23%, and an increase of 14.52 tons compared with the same period last year, a growth rate of 22.55%. The average start - up rate of domestic polypropylene downstream industries has decreased by 0.58 percentage points to 49.05%. As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of Chinese polypropylene production enterprises was 58.50 tons, a decrease of 2.26 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.72%. The fundamentals have no obvious driving force, and the price will mainly fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[12] Plastic - The mainstream spot prices in North China, East China, and South China are 7354 yuan/ton, 7521 yuan/ton, and 7614 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 22 yuan/ton, 42 yuan/ton, and 23 yuan/ton[14] - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises is 76.44%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points compared with the previous period. The average start - up rate of downstream products of LLDPE/LDPE in China last week decreased by 0.48% compared with the previous period. As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 44.82 tons, a decrease of 5.12 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 10.25%, and the inventory trend continued to decline. The current fundamentals of plastics have not improved significantly, and the price will mainly fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[14] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area is 1210 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. There are some differences among regions. The overall operating rate of soda ash last week was 82.21%, a decrease of 4.25% month - on - month, and the soda ash production was 71.68 tons, a decrease of 3.69 tons month - on - month, a decline of 4.90%. There were device shutdowns for maintenance in Qinghai and Shaanxi, and the production of Inner Mongolia Boyuan was gradually stabilizing. The supply side still has fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the summer maintenance situation[15] - Last week, the manufacturer's inventory was 176.69 tons, an increase of 4.02 tons month - on - month, a growth rate of 2.33%. The social inventory is showing a downward trend, with the total amount approaching 280,000 tons, a decrease of more than 30,000 tons. The demand side performance is average. The middle and lower reaches replenish inventory for rigid demand for low - price goods, but still have a resistance to high - price goods. The soda ash market has limited new driving forces except for the reduction in supply. It is recommended to treat it with a bottom - range oscillation idea. Attention should be paid to market sentiment, inventory changes, device maintenance, and unexpected disturbances[15] Glass - The market price of 5mm large - size glass in the Shahe area is 1130 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton month - on - month. There are some differences among regions. The operating rate of float glass last week was 75.14%, a decrease of 0.26% month - on - month, and the weekly glass production was 109.09 tons, a decrease of 0.26 tons month - on - month, a decline of 0.24%. The glass production line has changed frequently recently, and the supply has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the changes in the production line[16] - Last week, the inventory of float glass manufacturers was 69.216 million weight - boxes, a decrease of 671,000 weight - boxes month - on - month, a decline of 0.96%, and the inventory has decreased slightly but the amplitude is limited. The demand side is still weak, and there is no positive driving force. The glass market has limited driving forces, and it is recommended to treat it with a bottom - range oscillation idea in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in enterprise inventory, production line changes, and market sentiment[16] Rubber - The spot prices of domestic whole - latex, Thai RSS3, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber, and No. 20 rubber are 13,950 yuan/ton, 19,550 yuan/ton, 14,600 yuan/ton, and 13,600 yuan/ton respectively. The raw material prices in Hat Yai are 66.09 baht/kg for RSS3, 55.5 baht/kg for latex, 47.95 baht/kg for cup lump, and 61.77 baht/kg for raw rubber[17] - There is an expectation of a缓和 in the trade war, and the Fed has shown some signs of a possible interest rate cut in July. Rubber is in a rebound window with improved sentiment. The domestic whole - latex has started to be harvested, and the production areas in Yunnan have fully started harvesting, while the latex in Hainan has started to increase in volume. The Southeast Asian production areas have fully started harvesting, and the supply is generally loose. Currently, the global supply and demand of rubber are both loose. The start - up rate of downstream tire enterprises has decreased for semi - steel tires and increased slightly for all - steel tires. The market is speculating on macro - narratives such as the trade war. The US tariff collection on automobiles and household appliances may seriously suppress the global demand for rubber. Attention should be paid to the start - up situation of the rubber downstream[17] Methanol - The spot price in Zhejiang is 2590 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price in Xinjiang is 1625 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Anhui is 2310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The closing price of the main methanol futures contract MA509 is 2384 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.13% compared with the previous trading day[18] - The total port inventory has increased to 67.05 tons, an increase of 8.41 tons compared with the previous period. The domestic methanol industry operating rate has reached 91.31%. After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the reconstruction work in Iran has started, and the shut - down devices are expected to gradually resume production. However, the problem of natural gas shortage in Iran may continue until winter, and there is still uncertainty in the far - month supply. The start - up rate of MTO devices has dropped to 87.41%, and the start - up rate of MTBE has rebounded to 64.40%. The demand for traditional downstream industries such as formaldehyde and dimethyl ether is still weak. The price of steam coal is stable and slightly strong, but it has limited support for the cost of methanol. The short - term futures price will mainly fluctuate. After the geopolitical conflict eases, attention should be paid to the progress of Iran's supply recovery and the accumulation of domestic inventory[18] Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA's June supply and demand report lowered the global and US ending inventories, but the overall support of the report is limited. The domestic corn market is in the window period of the alternation of old and new grains, and the remaining grain is being continuously consumed. The decreasing inventory in the main production areas has supported the reluctance of traders to sell. However, affected by the substitution effect of wheat and the news of policy grain auctions, the upward momentum of prices may be weakened. The downstream procurement of corn is cautious, and the consumption is weak. The low breeding profit has led to the on - demand procurement of breeding enterprises, and the low operating rate of corn deep - processing enterprises due to losses has limited the boosting effect on downstream demand[19] - The main corn contract is in an upward channel, but it is under pressure from the resistance of the upward channel in the short term and has retraced. Attention should be paid to the support level of 2350 yuan/ton at the lower edge of the channel[20] Peanut - The spot prices in different regions vary. Currently, it is the peanut planting season, and the market expects that the domestic peanut planting area will increase year - on - year in 2025. If the weather is normal during this period, the peanut price in the far - month may be under pressure. In the short term, the peanut market has entered the inventory consumption period, and the import of peanuts has decreased, resulting in a low inventory level in each link of the market. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the low inventory may push the peanut price up due to the replenishment demand[21] -