Core Viewpoint - The issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special government bonds is progressing rapidly, aimed at stabilizing investment, promoting consumption, and supporting economic growth [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - As of July 14, 2023, the Ministry of Finance has issued a total of 678 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bonds, with 622 billion yuan remaining to be issued [2][3]. - The bonds include two phases: the fourth phase with a scale of 40 billion yuan and a 20-year term at a 1.92% interest rate, and the fifth phase with a scale of 83 billion yuan and a 30-year term at a 1.90% interest rate [1][2]. Group 2: Funding Allocation - Of the 1.3 trillion yuan, 800 billion yuan is allocated for "two major" constructions, focusing on infrastructure and ecological projects, while 300 billion yuan is designated for consumer goods replacement and 200 billion yuan for equipment updates [2][3]. - The "two major" projects include significant investments in areas such as high-standard farmland construction, ecological protection, and urban infrastructure [2]. Group 3: Impact on Consumption - The consumer goods replacement policy has led to over 1.4 trillion yuan in sales of related products since the beginning of the year, indicating a strong market response [4]. - Retail sales in categories such as home appliances and communication equipment have seen significant year-on-year growth, contributing to an increase in overall social retail sales [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The intraday view is oscillating with a slight upward bias, with IC and IM being relatively stronger. The medium - term view is bullish. The core logic includes the expected marginal improvement in Sino - US trade relations, the implementation of domestic positive policies, and a healthy chip structure in the AI industry chain [1][2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The intraday and medium - term views are high - level oscillations, and there is a need to be cautious about the adjustment risk of long - term bonds. The core logic is that the fundamental situation has fulfilled the tariff shock expectation, and loose policy expectations support the bond market, but there are also risks of repeated Sino - US tariff games [3][4]. - **Commodity Futures (Black and Building Materials)**: The intraday view is a gradual decline in steel prices, and the medium - term view is that steel prices will be under pressure. The core logic is the large inventory pressure of steel raw materials and the general downstream demand for steel [5]. 3. Summary by Category Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM [1] - **Intraday View**: Oscillating with a slight upward bias, IC and IM are relatively stronger [1] - **Medium - term View**: Bullish [1] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold IM2505 long positions, buy 1 lot of MO2506 - C - 5900 call options and sell 2 lots of MO2506 - P - 5200 put option combinations [1] - **Core Logic**: Sino - US trade relations are expected to improve, domestic positive policies are being implemented, and the AI industry chain has a healthy chip structure [1][2] Treasury Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL [3] - **Intraday View**: High - level oscillations, be cautious about the adjustment risk of long - term bonds [3] - **Medium - term View**: High - level oscillations [3] - **Reference Strategy**: Cautiously operate the long TF2506 and short TL2506 hedging combination [3] - **Core Logic**: The fundamental situation has fulfilled the tariff shock expectation, loose policy expectations support the bond market, but there are risks of repeated Sino - US tariff games [4] Commodity Futures (Black and Building Materials) - **Varieties**: Rebar, Hot - rolled coil [5] - **Intraday View**: Gradual decline in steel prices [5] - **Medium - term View**: Steel prices will be under pressure [5] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold short rebar call option RB2510 - C - 3450, hold long rebar in - the - money put option RB2510 - P - 3150 [5] - **Core Logic**: Large inventory pressure of steel raw materials and general downstream demand for steel [5]