1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminium: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Cautiously bullish [9] - Aluminium alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] 2. Core View of the Report - The issue in the Middle East is tending to ease, but the reduction of electrolytic aluminium production in the Middle East has actually occurred, and there is still a possibility of further production cuts. Overseas consumption has not been substantially affected, and domestic aluminium rod and alloy inventories are declining, laying the foundation for future aluminium ingot destocking. The long - term outlook for fundamentals and macro - expectations remains optimistic [6]. - The export limit policy of bauxite in Guinea is yet to be clearly introduced. Although it is not clear whether it will cause a supply shortage, the policy - oriented price limit strengthens the support for alumina prices. The alumina supply - demand situation remains in surplus, and the price fluctuates with crude oil prices in the short term and will shift upward in the long term due to raw material disturbances [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminium Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminium is 24,610 yuan/ton, with a change of 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium/discount is - 100 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminium is 24,510 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount changes - 30 yuan/ton to - 200 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminium is 24,520 yuan/ton, with a change of 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminium spot premium/discount changes - 5 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminium Futures - On March 31, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminium opened at 24,585 yuan/ton, closed at 24,875 yuan/ton, with a change of 350 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price reached 24,905 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 24,580 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 357,773 lots, and the holding volume was 258,839 lots [2]. Aluminium Inventory - As of March 31, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminium ingots was 1.373 million tons, with a change of 24,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 416,607 tons, with a change of 4,155 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminium inventory was 416,775 tons, with a change of - 1,900 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On March 31, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,805 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,770 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,810 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,770 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,810 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 315 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On March 31, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,931 yuan/ton, closed at 2,827 yuan/ton, with a change of - 102 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change rate of - 3.48%. The highest price reached 2,941 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,825 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 399,634 lots, and the holding volume was 199,275 lots [2]. Aluminium Alloy Price - On March 31, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminium was 18,400 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminium was 18,800 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 24,200 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3]. Aluminium Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminium alloy was 44,900 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 80,400 tons [4]. Aluminium Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 23,927 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 273 yuan/ton [5].

Investment and Economic Relations - Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's visit to the U.S. from March 18 to 22 resulted in the announcement of a second batch of investment projects totaling $73 billion, representing 20% of the $550 billion investment framework[1] - Japan's total investment in the U.S. has reached $109 billion, focusing on energy, electricity, and mineral projects, aligning with former President Trump's support for traditional energy[1] - Key projects include the construction of small modular reactors by GE and Hitachi in Tennessee and Alabama, and natural gas power facilities in Texas and Pennsylvania[1] Trade Relations and Economic Dependencies - Japan is progressing rapidly in trade agreements with the U.S., with American exports to Japan accounting for 18% of Japan's total exports in 2025, heavily reliant on automotive and semiconductor industries[2] - Japan's economic interests are intertwined with U.S. security alliances, making it difficult for Japan to adopt a confrontational stance against the U.S. in trade matters[2] Geopolitical Risks and Market Implications - Japan's energy security is precarious, with over 94% of its oil imports coming from the Middle East, leading to a complicated diplomatic relationship with Iran[3] - Optimistic scenarios suggest that if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, Japanese stocks could rise, particularly in the automotive and export manufacturing sectors, with potential yen appreciation[3] - Conversely, if Middle Eastern tensions persist, Japan could face heightened inflation risks, a widening trade deficit, and significant yen depreciation, leading to a bearish outlook for the stock market[3] Risk Factors - The report highlights the potential for geopolitical risks to exceed expectations, which could further complicate Japan's economic landscape[4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming 2026 Spring Conference organized by Guotai Junan Securities, focusing on macroeconomic analysis, AI advancements, and investment opportunities in various sectors [5][10]. Group 1: Conference Agenda - The conference will feature a series of speeches from notable figures, including Li Junjie, President of Guotai Junan, and experts from various fields discussing topics such as China's macroeconomic situation and the impact of AI on industries [5][6]. - Key sessions include discussions on the restructuring of international order and the revaluation of major assets, led by Liang Zhonghua, Chief Macro Research Analyst at Guotai Junan [8]. - The agenda also covers the implications of AI on investment strategies and corporate lifecycle analysis, with insights from various analysts within Guotai Junan [8][12]. Group 2: AI and Technology Focus - The conference will highlight the transition of AI factories into a new era, emphasizing the growth of computational power and its applications across different sectors [6][11]. - Discussions will include the impact of AI on memory demand and CPU requirements, indicating a significant shift in technology needs driven by AI advancements [11][12]. - The event will also explore the development of AI in various industries, including gaming, publishing, and smart consumer decision-making, showcasing the broad applicability of AI technologies [12][13]. Group 3: Real Estate and Investment Insights - The conference will address the outlook for real estate prices in 2026, with insights from industry analysts on market trends and investment opportunities [14]. - Specific sessions will focus on the Shenzhen real estate market and the implications of high dividend yields and technological transformations in the construction sector [14][15]. - Analysts will discuss the impact of regulatory changes and market dynamics on investment strategies, particularly in the context of the construction and non-metallic materials sectors [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming Guotai Haitong Spring Strategy Conference 2026, focusing on macroeconomic outlooks, policy insights, and investment opportunities across various sectors, particularly in AI, real estate, and global economic shifts [1][2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic and Policy Outlook - The conference will feature speeches on China's macroeconomic and policy outlook, as well as the U.S. economic and monetary policy perspectives [2]. - Keynote speakers include prominent figures from academia and finance, providing insights into the current economic landscape and future trends [2][11]. Group 2: AI and Technology Trends - The conference will explore the rapid development of AI applications and their implications for various industries, including marketing, storage, and computing [4][6]. - Discussions will include the impact of AI on CPU demand and the evolution of AI-driven business models [5][6]. Group 3: Real Estate and Investment Strategies - A session will focus on the outlook for real estate prices in 2026, addressing market trends and investment opportunities [7][10]. - The conference will also cover strategies for investing in high-dividend and technology transformation sectors [10][22]. Group 4: Global Economic Changes - The event will address the reshaping of international order and its effects on asset pricing, highlighting the need for adaptive investment strategies [5][8]. - Topics will include geopolitical dynamics and their influence on China's policy choices and economic strategies [15][19]. Group 5: Sector-Specific Insights - Various sessions will delve into specific sectors such as renewable energy, consumer goods, and healthcare, discussing growth prospects and investment strategies [25][27]. - The conference will also feature insights into the evolving landscape of commercial aerospace and the implications for investment [22][39].

Group 1 - The core discussion between Russian President Putin and Palestinian President Abbas focused on Middle Eastern issues and the situation in Gaza, as well as prospects for cooperation in trade, culture, and humanitarian fields [1] - Putin emphasized that a comprehensive and fully functioning Palestinian state is a necessary condition for a complete resolution of Middle Eastern issues [1] - Abbas asserted that the Palestinian people are committed to their land and firmly oppose attempts by the US and Israel to displace them, advocating for peace based on international law and UN resolutions [1]

Core Points - The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and U.S. President Trump held a meeting on key issues, including the 19th round of sanctions against Russia to increase economic pressure [1] - The sanctions include a ban on the import of Russian liquefied natural gas and an expansion of sanctions to third-country refineries and oil traders [1] - The EU reiterated its commitment to completely eliminate dependence on Russian fossil fuels by 2027 [1] - Both leaders exchanged views on the situation in the Middle East and reaffirmed their support for the "two-state solution" [1] - Von der Leyen did not mention the controversial U.S.-EU trade agreement during the discussions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that U.S. Middle East envoy Wittekov correctly identified Hamas as an obstacle to the hostage release agreement [1] Group 1 - The statement emphasizes the role of Hamas in hindering negotiations related to the release of hostages [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Putin emphasizes the importance of addressing the root causes of the Ukraine crisis while expressing willingness to continue negotiations with Ukraine [1] Group 1: Russia-Ukraine Negotiations - Putin indicates Russia's readiness to engage in the negotiation process with Ukraine [1] - The conversation with President Trump did not result in a discussion about specific dates for the third round of direct negotiations in Istanbul [1] - There was no discussion regarding the cessation of U.S. military aid to Ukraine during the call [1] Group 2: U.S.-Russia Relations - The call between Putin and Trump was the fifth conversation between the two leaders this year, lasting approximately one hour [1] - Trump raised the issue of ending military actions in Ukraine during the discussion [1] - The possibility of organizing another call between the two presidents within 24 hours was mentioned, although no plans for a meeting were discussed [1] Group 3: Middle East Issues - Putin highlighted the significance of resolving Middle Eastern issues through political and diplomatic means during the call [1]

Group 1 - The White House Press Secretary Levitt stated that the Middle East envoy, Wittecoff, has been in continuous contact with Iranian officials [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. and Israel have achieved their objectives regarding Iran, indicating a potential shift towards negotiating a comprehensive agreement with Iran [1] Group 1 - U.S. Special Envoy for Middle East Issues, Steve Witkoff, emphasizes the success of U.S. and Israeli efforts in addressing concerns related to Iran [1] - The statement suggests that it is now time to engage in discussions for a comprehensive deal with Iran [1]