涨价行情是否持续？还有哪些机会？20251114 摘要 2025 年底美股指标达临界点，如 MSCI 新兴市场指数/标普 500 比值达 0.2，标普 500 市盈率超 35 倍，美股市值占全球比重达 54%，引发美 元贬值和非美市场行情，预计 2026 年通胀回归，资源品或共振，涨价 行情或持续，但存波动。 预计 2026 年为顺周期大年，中美政策共振或推高 PPI，固定资产投资 新开工项目高峰将至，叠加房地产政策刺激，大宗商品需求有望显著增 加，类似 2016 年局面或再现。 商品价格上涨背后存在货币现象，黄金价格突破 4,000 美元反映美元贬 值，以黄金计价的工业金属价格处于历史低位，未来工业需求回升将带 动工业金属价格中枢上移。 存储器市场自 2025 年 3 月出现拐点，DDR4 率先涨价，DDR5 和 NAND 随后跟涨，AI 服务器需求提升是重要驱动因素，预计 DDR4 供应 紧张将持续至 2026 年上半年，NAND 下半年或略有紧张，关注 AI 算力 投入和产能扩张。 Q&A 2025 年全球市场的流动性和风险偏好如何影响涨价行情？ 近期商品价格上涨背后的货币现象是什么？ 商品价格上涨背后 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing volatility, with major indices opening lower, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors [1] Group 1: Market Overview - The three major A-share indices opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.56% and the ChiNext Index down 1.74% [1] - Sectors such as storage chips, CPO, phosphorus chemicals, and non-ferrous metals are leading the declines [1] Group 2: Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities suggests increasing positions in chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and electric new energy as a better choice, emphasizing the importance of stable corporate overseas environments and AI developments [2] - The report indicates that over 60% of institutional holdings are concentrated in sectors influenced by AI narratives, and it recommends focusing on companies with rising ROE from low points [2] Group 3: Sector Recommendations - China Merchants Securities identifies non-ferrous metals, steel, and building materials as cyclical sectors to consider for investment, driven by expectations of a cyclical upturn in 2026 [3] - The report highlights that price increases in commodities are concentrated in coal, non-ferrous metals, certain chemicals, and the renewable energy sector [3] Group 4: Recovery Opportunities - Industrial Securities emphasizes the importance of cyclical sectors like steel, chemicals, and building materials, while also exploring low-position technology growth opportunities [4] - The report notes that the tightening of overseas liquidity is unlikely to lead to systemic risks, and A-shares may remain resilient under stable economic and policy expectations [4] Group 5: Future Trends - CITIC Construction Investment predicts that resource products may become a new main investment direction in A-shares following the technology sector, with a focus on key resources and military industry [5] - The report highlights sectors such as new energy, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and military equipment as key areas of interest for future investment [5]

Group 1 - The report indicates that during the PPI recovery phase, small-cap value stocks tend to outperform, with small-cap growth also showing potential for good performance [4][10][12] - Historical analysis shows that in previous PPI recovery phases, the market style favored small-cap value and small-cap growth stocks, particularly when liquidity remains loose [10][11] - The report highlights that the cyclical sector tends to outperform during PPI recovery phases, as its performance is closely tied to PPI movements and investment demand [12][14] Group 2 - The report notes that the recent market sentiment has shifted towards cyclical and consumer staples sectors, with increased attention on these indices [4][39] - In terms of industry preference, sectors such as electric equipment, pharmaceuticals, and non-bank financials have seen significant net inflows, while sectors like electronics and non-ferrous metals experienced net outflows [47] - The report emphasizes that the upcoming years, particularly 2026, may witness a significant investment boost due to the alignment of China's five-year plans and the U.S. election cycle, potentially benefiting related sectors [4][9]

Macro Strategy Insights - Recent price increases in commodities are driven by a rush to capitalize on the anticipated cyclical recovery in 2024, with potential synchronization between China and the U.S. [1] - Historically, years ending in 6 or 1 tend to see rising Producer Price Index (PPI) due to significant political events, while U.S. industrial metal prices typically bottom out in presidential election years and peak in midterm election years [1][2] Industry Tracking - The demand for lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4) is improving, leading to price increases in various phosphate chemical products. Since 2024, phosphate rock prices have remained high, and the supply of phosphate rock may not meet expectations due to increased mining barriers and processing difficulties [3] - As of November 6, the average market price for yellow phosphorus reached 22,486 RMB/ton, up 527 RMB/ton from the previous week, reflecting a 2.34% increase [3] - The phosphate chemical market is supported by strong downstream demand, with companies actively seeking new suppliers to ensure stable supply amid tight market conditions [3] - The operational stability of phosphate chemical companies is bolstered by optimized product structures and sufficient operating cash flow, enhancing their capacity for cash dividends [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent price increase in the market is driven by a preemptive move for the cyclical upturn expected next year, influenced by both China's five-year planning cycle and the U.S. four-year election cycle [1] Domestic Market Insights - Historically, years ending in 6 and 1 are associated with rising Producer Price Index (PPI) in China, primarily due to the implementation of five-year plans [1] - The cyclical nature of the Chinese economy suggests that 2026 will be a significant year, coinciding with a rare alignment of economic cycles between China and the U.S. [1] U.S. Market Insights - In the U.S., economic policies are closely tied to election cycles, with industrial metal prices typically peaking in midterm election years [1] Investment Opportunities - Current price increases are concentrated in sectors such as coal, non-ferrous metals, certain chemicals, the renewable energy and photovoltaic industry chain, and memory storage [1] - Considering supply-side changes and free cash flow levels, sectors like non-ferrous metals, steel, and building materials are recommended for cyclical investment [1]