中美对抗

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日本前首相一语惊人:中国不该独自对付美国,需赶紧跟另两国合作
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-06 04:28
Group 1 - The current trade war poses significant challenges for the U.S., with over 170 countries awaiting solutions from President Trump, while some nations are preparing countermeasures [1] - Analysts express concerns that a complete U.S. failure in the trade war could escalate tensions towards potential military conflict, particularly with China [1] Group 2 - The 13th World Peace Forum in Beijing highlighted the views of former Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, who stated that the era of U.S. dominance has ended [3] - Hatoyama emphasized that even if Trump leaves office, his policies may continue under successors, contributing to U.S. instability on the global stage [3] - He argued that while China's power is comparable to that of the U.S., it would be unwise for China to confront the U.S. alone, suggesting cooperation with Japan and South Korea [3] Group 3 - Japan and South Korea, traditional U.S. allies, may find it necessary to collaborate with China, especially given Japan's dissatisfaction with U.S. trade agreements and potential tariff increases [5] - The threat of a 35% tariff from Trump could severely impact the Japanese economy, leading to increased pressure on Japan to seek support from China [5] Group 4 - South Korea faces difficulties in negotiations with the U.S., with President Lee Jae-myung acknowledging the challenges in reaching a consensus [7] - Public sentiment in both Japan and South Korea reflects frustration with the U.S., as citizens feel their interests are overlooked, prompting calls for closer ties with China [7] - The current situation indicates that Japan and South Korea may need China more than vice versa, especially as the U.S. has begun to make concessions in the trade war [7]
稀土首战告捷!王毅连访欧洲3国送出警告,中方反制已锁定30国!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-04 19:17
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving global trade dynamics, particularly focusing on the tensions between the U.S. and China, and the implications for the EU as it navigates its economic relationship with both powers [1]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The U.S. is attempting to isolate China through global supply chains, despite a temporary "truce" in tariffs [3][5]. - The U.S. has relaxed some export restrictions on China and is urging China to accelerate rare earth exports, indicating a strategic maneuver to contain China economically [3][5]. - The U.S. has issued a "last ultimatum" to the EU regarding tariffs, threatening punitive tariffs of up to 50% on EU goods if an agreement is not reached by July 9 [5][6]. Group 2: China's Diplomatic Response - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit to Europe aims to restart high-level strategic dialogues and strengthen cooperation with Germany and France [5][9]. - Wang Yi warns the EU against "selling out" to the U.S. in tariff negotiations, emphasizing that the challenges Europe faces do not stem from China [9][10]. - China has implemented new anti-dumping duties on stainless steel products from the EU and other countries, signaling a strong response to perceived aggression from the U.S. and its allies [10][11]. Group 3: EU's Position and Challenges - The EU's economic relationship with China is significant, especially in the automotive and high-tech sectors, but U.S. pressure is forcing the EU to adopt a tougher stance on exports to China [9][10]. - Wang Yi highlights the dangers of misinterpreting historical and cultural differences as reasons for confrontation, urging the EU to avoid repeating past mistakes [9][11]. - The EU faces a critical decision regarding its trade strategy: aligning with the U.S. or maintaining a cooperative stance with China to uphold a multilateral trade system [11].
中美对抗是假,美联储收割是真!买矿山、买电网?这在中国行不通
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-22 02:28
Group 1 - The article discusses the underlying dynamics of the US-China relationship, emphasizing that the apparent trade and technology conflicts may not reflect the deeper economic interdependence between the two nations [3][5][19] - It highlights the role of the Federal Reserve and international capital in maintaining the dollar system, suggesting that the Fed's decisions often serve the interests of capital groups rather than solely the US economy [7][8][13] - The article points out that the US's monetary policies, particularly the significant increase in debt and money supply, may be strategically aimed at positioning for future global crises, allowing capital to acquire undervalued assets [10][13][15] Group 2 - The narrative indicates that while the US seeks to maintain its economic dominance, China's strong control over its key assets, such as energy and infrastructure, poses challenges for foreign capital penetration [17][19] - It notes that China's efforts towards the internationalization of the yuan and advancements in technology sectors like renewable energy and 5G are enhancing its global economic influence [19][24] - The article also mentions a growing trend of "de-dollarization" among some countries, reflecting a shift in reserve strategies and a response to the stability of the current international financial system [22][24]
5月市场观点:关注关税的实际影响幅度-20250506
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-06 12:01
Group 1: Tariff Impact Analysis - The report highlights that the actual impact of tariff increases will gradually become evident, with significant concerns regarding the overall tariff rate and its effects on exports and economic growth [1][9][14] - Four scenarios of tariff increases were analyzed, resulting in overall tariff rates of approximately 33.4%, 53.0%, 81.9%, and 105.6% respectively [1][14][18] - The estimated impact on China's overall exports under these scenarios is projected to be a decline of 8.7%, 11.7%, 12.7%, and 12.7%, with actual drag expected to be around 7%-10% when considering potential new transshipment trade and overseas factories [2][16][18] Group 2: Economic Growth Impact - The report estimates that the GDP drag from the four tariff scenarios will be approximately 1.2%, 1.6%, 1.7%, and 1.7%, with actual impacts potentially ranging from 1% to 1.4% when accounting for mitigating factors [2][16][18] - The analysis indicates that the household appliances and light manufacturing sectors will face the most significant pressure, followed by electronics, beauty care, power equipment, machinery, basic chemicals, automotive, textiles, and non-ferrous metals [2][17][18] Group 3: Monthly Market Review - The report notes that in April, global risk appetite experienced significant fluctuations due to unexpected tariff announcements, leading to a sharp decline in stock and bond markets, followed by a gradual recovery [3][19] - A-shares showed a "√" shaped recovery pattern, although most indices ended the month lower, with domestic demand and dividend stocks performing relatively better [3][19][20] Group 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The report anticipates a continuation of the volatile market pattern, influenced by U.S.-China tensions, liquidity conditions, and policy shifts [4][5] - Investment strategies should focus on sectors with independent industrial trends, such as domestic AI, smart vehicles, and robotics, while also considering policy-driven sectors like domestic consumption and real estate [5]
半夜惊雷
猫笔刀· 2025-04-10 14:08
我昨晚差一点就被特朗普给害了。 要是搁平常作息1点左右我多半已经睡了,昨晚刷抖音刷到个半小时的长时间,看完的时候睡晚了。打算闭眼之前最后打开软件看了一眼行情,直接给我 看的从床上弹射起来,美股和币圈双双暴涨。 美股还好我都是本金没用杠杆,币那边我在好几个链上lending里有借币种田,为了收益率尽可能的高一些,我通常信用额度用的比较满,哪怕是睡觉前也 就留20%的安全缓冲。如果在我睡觉的时间里涨幅超过20%就会爆仓清算,我在床上看的时候已经涨了14%,浑身一个激灵,连滚带爬的去打开电脑调仓 了。 我要是1点之前睡了,到早上8点醒就晚了,我算了一下大概要亏10万+u,好命逃过一刀 至于特朗普为什么突然选择推迟,有两种说法,一种是特朗普自己承认昨晚在关注美债的表现,看来相比起股市他更在乎美国国债,近期因为遇到抛售收 益率飙升,有可能担心恐慌继续蔓延所以推迟了关税。还有一个说法就是特朗普团队内部也对这次关税政策颇多反对,包括榜一大哥马斯克,不好直接反 对特朗普,就说经济顾问是个蠢货。具体是哪个原因,等我下次遇到他了帮你们问问。 至于特朗普只针对中国惩罚性加税,你们别担心,有点用,但不大。因为有税差和利润空间,肯定有 ...