Market Overview - On October 14, U.S. stock markets experienced a significant reversal after an initial drop due to trade tensions, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling nearly 600 points before recovering [2][4] - The Nasdaq index saw a decline of less than 0.5%, while the S&P 500 also rebounded [2] - AI technology stocks led the decline, with Nvidia down over 3%, and Tesla and Oracle down 1.79% and 2.22% respectively [2][3] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman indicated expectations for two interest rate cuts by the end of 2025, with a possibility of two cuts before the year ends [7][8] - The Fed recently lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first reduction since December of the previous year [7] - Market expectations reflected in futures indicate a likelihood of two 25 basis point cuts in the upcoming meetings on October 28-29 and in December [8] Trade Relations Impact - Recent sanctions imposed by China on five U.S. subsidiaries of South Korea's Hanwha Marine have heightened market concerns regarding U.S.-China trade relations [4] - Following a period of heightened tensions, including threats of increased tariffs from former President Trump, market sentiment remains cautious as analysts assess the evolving trade landscape [4]

Market Reaction - The announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese products by Donald Trump led to a sharp decline in the S&P 500 index, which fell by 2.7% [1] - This news triggered widespread volatility across global equities, particularly affecting crypto-related stocks as investor risk appetite weakened [1] Crypto Stocks Performance - Leading digital-asset companies experienced significant declines, with Coinbase (COIN) closing at $357.01, down 7.75% from the previous close of $387 [2] - Bullish (BLSH) stock dropped 9.42% to $60.37 from a prior close of $66.65, reflecting broader market weakness [3] - Metaplanet (MTPLF) ended 2.25% lower at $3.48, compared to the previous close of $3.56, despite briefly rising to $3.65 intraday [4] - MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA) saw a decline of 7.67%, finishing at $18.65, with further after-hours trading losses [5] - Strategy (MSTR) closed at $304.79, down 4.84% from $320.29, indicating high volatility during the session [6] Fundamental Valuation Concerns - Analysts noted a shift in focus from short-term stock declines to concerns over fundamental valuation metrics, with Strategy's multiple-to-net asset value (mNAV) dropping below 1.180, its lowest level in nearly two years [7]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On September 4, 2025, most contracts of CBOT soybean futures closed higher, with the benchmark contract up 0.1%. The market rebounded due to technical buying at the end of the session, despite concerns over China's insufficient purchases of US new - crop soybeans. There are rumors that this year's US soybean production may be lower than the government's August forecast, but if exports to China are limited, it may not matter. According to StoneX, the estimated US soybean yield is 53.2 bushels per acre, and the production is 4.257 billion bushels, lower than last month's forecast [3]. - Meteorologists warn that potential frost weather threatens US corn and soybean crops as there have been several days of low - temperature weather in the north - central part of North America and southern Canada [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - DCE Bean No.1 2511: The daytime closing price was 3,965 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan (+0.03%); the night - session closing price was 3,971 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan (+0.13%) [1]. - DCE Bean Meal 2601: The daytime closing price was 3,048 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan (-0.29%); the night - session closing price was 3,050 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan (-0.42%) [1]. - CBOT Soybean 11: The price was 1,033.25 cents per bushel, up 1.5 cents (+0.15%) [1]. - CBOT Bean Meal 12: The price was 284.1 dollars per short ton, up 1.3 dollars (+0.46%) [1]. 3.2 Spot Data - Shandong: The price of 43% bean meal was 3,060 - 3,070 yuan/ton, flat to up 10 yuan compared to the previous day. Different delivery months had different spreads to M2601 [1]. - East China: Different delivery months of bean meal had different spreads to M2601, and most were flat compared to the previous day [1]. - South China: The price of bean meal was 3,010 - 3,070 yuan/ton, flat to up 10 yuan compared to the previous day. Different regions and delivery months had different spreads to M2601 [1]. 3.3 Main Industry Data - Bean meal trading volume: The previous trading day was 6.7 million tons per day, and the day before was 6.5 million tons per day [1]. - Bean meal inventory: The previous week was 101.49 million tons, and the week before was 98.55 million tons [1]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of bean meal was +1, and that of bean No.1 was 0, mainly referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures on the daytime session of the reporting day [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of patience and understanding in trading, suggesting that investors should not feel compelled to trade every market movement and should focus on opportunities that align with their skills and market knowledge [1] Group 2 - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching a peak of $3382.83 per ounce, currently trading around $3389.60, driven by geopolitical tensions and trade issues [3] - Factors supporting gold prices include renewed tariff threats from Trump and escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - Market risk appetite is suppressed, with weak Asian stock markets and ongoing US-China trade tensions benefiting gold prices [3] Group 3 - Short-term analysis indicates a bearish outlook with potential for a return to a range-bound market, as the support from recent news is not strong enough [3] - Key support levels to watch are around $3328/3335, where a potential long position could be considered, while resistance is noted at $3366-71 [3] Group 4 - Trading recommendations include short positions near $3369 with a stop loss at $3378 and a take profit at $3343/3328, as well as long positions near $3328-30 with a stop loss at $3318 and a take profit at $3356-66 [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of patience and understanding in trading, suggesting that not every market movement needs to be acted upon, and that investors should focus on opportunities that align with their skills and knowledge [1] Group 2 - Gold prices continued to rise, reaching a peak of $3382.83 per ounce, currently trading around $3389.60, supported by geopolitical tensions and trade issues [4] - Factors contributing to the demand for gold include renewed tariff threats from Trump and escalating conflict in Ukraine, which enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset during periods of uncertainty [4] - The market is closely monitoring upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials for insights into future monetary policy, as gold typically performs better in low-interest-rate environments [4] Group 3 - The gold market is currently in a clear upward trend, with a trading range expected between $3365 and $3270, particularly noting the significance of the upcoming non-farm payroll report [4] - Technical indicators show bullish signals across multiple time frames, with a mid-term target approaching the upper Bollinger band around $3400 [4] - The H4 timeframe indicates a successful breakout above the key resistance level of $3330, suggesting potential upward movement towards $3400 [4] Group 4 - The trading strategy suggests focusing on buying during pullbacks and selling during rebounds, with short-term resistance identified at $3400-$3415 and support at $3370-$3360 [6] - The commentary highlights the need for patience and strategic positioning in the market, advising against waiting for trend reversals to enter trades [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market increased in volume and price, with the price difference on the trading board widening to over 100 yuan, and the spot premium expanding to 175 yuan. The main reason is that domestic copper inventories decreased by 36,900 tons over the weekend, the arrival of goods in the spot market was low, but downstream consumption was fair. The tight spot market drove the price difference between futures and spot to widen. At the same time, the supply of domestic scrap copper is also decreasing, and Sino - US trade tensions are affecting China's scrap copper imports. In March, scrap copper imports decreased by 13% year - on - year, and subsequent imports of scrap copper are expected to continue to decline. Part of the scrap copper consumption will shift to refined copper. Coupled with the transfer of global copper supplies to the COMEX market, the decrease in the supplement of imported refined copper in China will continue to drive domestic inventories to decline, and the domestic spot market will support copper prices. - On the macro - front, after Trump repeatedly pressured Powell to cut interest rates, hedge funds are selling the US dollar on a large scale, and the US dollar index has started a new round of decline, which is positive for base metals. It is expected that copper prices will rise further [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai copper market increased in volume and price, with the price difference on the trading board widening to over 100 yuan, and the spot premium expanding to 175 yuan. The main reasons include significant weekend inventory reduction, low arrival of goods in the spot market, good downstream consumption, decreasing scrap copper supply, and the transfer of global copper supplies to the COMEX market. The weakening US dollar also supports copper prices, and it is expected that copper prices will rise further [7]. 3.2 Industry News - The US Forest Service will approve a controversial land swap required for Rio Tinto and BHP to build a copper mine in Arizona. The agency will re - issue the environmental report for the Resolution copper mine project land swap within 60 days and may suspend the land swap if the US Supreme Court agrees to hear a related long - term case [10]. - Sinomine Resource Group plans to start copper production at its Kitumba copper mine in Zambia's Central Province in September 2026. The company plans to invest $560 million in the project and has started the stripping work [10]. - Citi has moderated its short - term bearish view on copper prices, raising its three - month price target to $8,800 per ton from the previous $8,000 per ton. It believes that the "downside risk" in the next three months will be reduced, but its medium - term bearish view remains unchanged due to US tariff policies affecting physical copper consumption and manufacturing activities. Citi estimates the average copper price in this quarter to be $9,000 per ton [10][11].