中美贸易风险

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宝城期货热轧卷板周度数据-20250606
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 09:46
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coils has weakened. With continuous resumption of production in plate mills, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased by 92,000 tons week - on - week, reaching a high for the year, and supply pressure is rising. Meanwhile, the demand for hot - rolled coils is running weakly and steadily, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 60,100 tons week - on - week. Although the high - frequency transactions have increased slightly, the demand resilience has weakened. The relatively positive factors are the high - level cold - rolled production and the easing of Sino - US trade risks, which still support the demand. However, the pressure caused by the intensification of downstream contradictions needs to be guarded against. In general, with supply rising and demand running weakly, the fundamentals of hot - rolled coils have weakened, inventory has started to increase, and prices are under pressure. With the easing of Sino - US trade risks and improved market sentiment, in the short - term, hot - rolled coil prices are expected to stabilize with fluctuations, and the demand performance should be monitored [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Supply - The weekly output of hot - rolled coils is 3.2875 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 92,000 tons and a month - on - month increase of 92,000 tons. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 32,300 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.65%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points, and an increase of 2.51 percentage points compared with the same period last year [2]. Demand - The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 3.2092 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 60,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60,100 tons, and a decrease of 89,900 tons compared with the same period last year. The weekly output of cold - rolled coils is 887,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 7,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,600 tons, and an increase of 41,200 tons compared with the same period last year [2]. Inventory - The total inventory of hot - rolled coils is 3.4064 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 78,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 78,300 tons, and a decrease of 742,100 tons compared with the same period last year. The in - plant inventory is 763,500 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 13,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,300 tons, and a decrease of 135,500 tons compared with the same period last year. The social inventory is 2.6429 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 65,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 tons, and a decrease of 606,600 tons compared with the same period last year [2].
市场情绪回暖,钢矿震荡回升
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 09:44
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 6 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 市场情绪回暖,钢矿震荡回升 核心观点 螺纹钢:主力期价震荡回升,录得 0.57%日涨幅,量增仓缩。现阶段, 螺纹钢供应持续收缩,但需求同样走弱,供需双弱局面基本面未见好 转,钢价继续承压运行,相对利好则是库存低位,现实端矛盾不大,预 期现实博弈下预计螺纹价格延续低位震荡运行态势,重点关注需求表现 情况。 热轧卷板:主力期价震荡运行,录得 0.55%日涨幅,量稳仓增。目前来 看,热卷供应持续回升,而需求弱稳运行,供强需弱局面下热卷基本面 有所走弱,库存开始增加,热卷继续承压,相对利好则是中美贸易风险 暂缓,市场情绪回暖,短期乐观情绪主导下预计热卷价格震荡企稳,关 注需求表现情况。 铁矿石:主力期价震荡走高,录得 0.86%日涨幅,量仓扩大。现阶 段,铁矿石供需格局变化不大,需求维持高位但存走弱预期,利好效应 不强,相反财年末矿商发运积极,供应压力偏大,供强需弱局面矿石基 本面将走弱,矿价承压运行,相对利好则是期价深度贴水,且市场情绪 回暖,修贴水逻辑支撑下下行阻力较大, ...