本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【上周五晚沪铜主力重返8万元上沿，短期铜价预计高位偏强震荡】上周五晚，沪铜主力重返8万元上 沿，伦铜升至9996美金附近。 宏观层面中性偏多。中美领导人通电话，为中美关系稳定发展提供战略 指引，市场情绪好转，铜价企稳回升。 基本面呈中性。本周全球铜库存延续累库约1.2万吨，达61.7万 吨。其中，上期所铜累库约1.17万吨至10.58万吨，保税铜库存去化0.04万吨至7.64万吨，LME铜去库约 0.5万吨至14.76万吨，COMEX铜累库0.57万吨至28.73万吨。 总体而言，美联储降息落地，中美贸易风 险缓和，海外宏观扰动减弱，市场关注国内政策及终端旺季指引。预计短期铜价高位偏强震荡，今日沪 铜主力运行区间参考79400 - 80900元/吨。策略上，日内以区间为主，中线可择机低吸。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coils has weakened. With continuous resumption of production in plate mills, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased by 92,000 tons week - on - week, reaching a high for the year, and supply pressure is rising. Meanwhile, the demand for hot - rolled coils is running weakly and steadily, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 60,100 tons week - on - week. Although the high - frequency transactions have increased slightly, the demand resilience has weakened. The relatively positive factors are the high - level cold - rolled production and the easing of Sino - US trade risks, which still support the demand. However, the pressure caused by the intensification of downstream contradictions needs to be guarded against. In general, with supply rising and demand running weakly, the fundamentals of hot - rolled coils have weakened, inventory has started to increase, and prices are under pressure. With the easing of Sino - US trade risks and improved market sentiment, in the short - term, hot - rolled coil prices are expected to stabilize with fluctuations, and the demand performance should be monitored [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Supply - The weekly output of hot - rolled coils is 3.2875 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 92,000 tons and a month - on - month increase of 92,000 tons. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 32,300 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.65%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points, and an increase of 2.51 percentage points compared with the same period last year [2]. Demand - The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 3.2092 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 60,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60,100 tons, and a decrease of 89,900 tons compared with the same period last year. The weekly output of cold - rolled coils is 887,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 7,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,600 tons, and an increase of 41,200 tons compared with the same period last year [2]. Inventory - The total inventory of hot - rolled coils is 3.4064 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 78,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 78,300 tons, and a decrease of 742,100 tons compared with the same period last year. The in - plant inventory is 763,500 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 13,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,300 tons, and a decrease of 135,500 tons compared with the same period last year. The social inventory is 2.6429 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 65,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 tons, and a decrease of 606,600 tons compared with the same period last year [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated and rebounded with a daily increase of 0.57%. With supply and demand both weakening, the fundamentals remain unchanged, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, focusing on demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated with a daily increase of 0.55%. The supply is increasing while the demand is weakly stable, and the price is expected to oscillate and stabilize in the short term due to improved market sentiment, also focusing on demand [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated higher with a daily increase of 0.86%. The supply is under pressure, and the demand is expected to weaken, but the price may oscillate strongly in the short term supported by the logic of narrowing the discount, focusing on the change in molten iron [4]. Summary of Each Section Industry Dynamics - The global manufacturing PMI was 49.2% in May, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month but below 50% for three consecutive months. The US manufacturing PMI continued to decline [6]. - In May, the average monthly working hours of China's construction machinery products decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The monthly average working hours of excavators were 72.6 hours, and the monthly starting rate was 61% [7]. - On June 3, 2025, Brazil launched an anti - dumping investigation into hot - rolled coils imported from China [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, Tangshan billet, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap are provided, along with the prices of 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, freight, SGX swaps, and the Platts index [9]. Futures Market - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are presented. The rebar contract closed at 2,975 with a 0.57% increase, the hot - rolled coil at 3,092 with a 0.55% increase, and the iron ore at 707.5 with a 0.86% increase [13]. Related Charts - Include charts of steel and iron ore inventories (rebar, hot - rolled coil, 45 - port iron ore, etc.), steel mill production (blast furnace start - up rate, capacity utilization rate, etc.) [15][20][29]. Market Outlook - Rebar: Supply and demand are both weakening. The weekly output decreased by 7.05 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 19.65 tons. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, focusing on demand [39]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply is increasing, with a weekly output increase of 9.20 tons, while the demand is weakly stable, with a weekly apparent demand decrease of 6.01 tons. The price is expected to oscillate and stabilize, paying attention to demand [40]. - Iron ore: The supply is under pressure, and the demand is expected to weaken. The price may oscillate strongly in the short term, focusing on the change in molten iron [41].