Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel sector in the black building materials industry is "volatile" [1] Report's Core View - The steel market is in a policy vacuum period. Macroscopically, Sino - US risk fluctuations change, and the Fourth Plenary Session still supports the market. The terminal market is still poor, with the proportion of steel used in real estate decreasing. Infrastructure and manufacturing growth rates have declined, and steel exports face uncertainties. Supply is expected to decrease, and short - term steel prices are expected to show a volatile trend [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Steel futures (screw and coil) closed higher in the night session on Tuesday [1] Important Information - US President Trump said he would visit China early next year, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman responded that there was no information to provide for now [1] - The Ministry of Commerce held a policy interpretation round - table meeting for foreign - funded enterprises, emphasizing that China's export control is a responsible act to maintain world peace and supply chain stability [1] - In September, key steel enterprises produced 62.86 million tons of crude steel, a 1.0% year - on - year decrease, and 58.43 million tons of pig iron, a 0.9% year - on - year decrease [1] Market Logic - The terminal market is weak, with real estate continuously dragging down steel consumption. Infrastructure and manufacturing growth rates have dropped to 1.1% and 5%, respectively. Steel exports are at a relatively high level but face uncertainties [1] - From January to September, China's crude steel production continued to decline year - on - year. Steel mills' profits are falling, and production cuts are increasing. It is expected that steel production will continue to decline [1] - The daily pig iron output is currently over 2.4 million tons and is expected to drop below 2.3 million tons. The annual crude steel and pig iron production are expected to decline year - on - year [1] Trading Strategy - In the short term, the 3000 level of rebar has strong support. It is recommended to try to go long when approaching 3000, and stop loss if it effectively breaks below [1]

Core Viewpoint - The main viewpoint indicates that copper prices are expected to experience strong fluctuations at high levels in the short term, with the Shanghai copper futures returning to the 80,000 yuan mark and London copper nearing 9,996 USD [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Recent phone calls between Chinese and U.S. leaders have provided strategic guidance for the stable development of Sino-U.S. relations, improving market sentiment and contributing to the stabilization and rebound of copper prices [1] Group 2: Supply and Inventory - Global copper inventory has continued to increase by approximately 12,000 tons, reaching 617,000 tons. Specifically, the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw an increase of about 11,700 tons to 105,800 tons, while bonded copper inventory decreased by 400 tons to 76,400 tons. The London Metal Exchange (LME) saw a decrease of about 5,000 tons to 147,600 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 5,700 tons to 287,300 tons [1] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have been realized, and trade risks between China and the U.S. have eased, leading to a reduction in overseas macroeconomic disturbances. The market is now focusing on domestic policies and guidance for the peak season in end-user demand [1] Group 4: Price Forecast - Short-term copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly at high levels, with the reference trading range for Shanghai copper futures set between 79,400 and 80,900 yuan per ton. The strategy suggests focusing on this range for day trading while considering opportunities for buying on dips in the medium term [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coils has weakened. With continuous resumption of production in plate mills, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased by 92,000 tons week - on - week, reaching a high for the year, and supply pressure is rising. Meanwhile, the demand for hot - rolled coils is running weakly and steadily, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 60,100 tons week - on - week. Although the high - frequency transactions have increased slightly, the demand resilience has weakened. The relatively positive factors are the high - level cold - rolled production and the easing of Sino - US trade risks, which still support the demand. However, the pressure caused by the intensification of downstream contradictions needs to be guarded against. In general, with supply rising and demand running weakly, the fundamentals of hot - rolled coils have weakened, inventory has started to increase, and prices are under pressure. With the easing of Sino - US trade risks and improved market sentiment, in the short - term, hot - rolled coil prices are expected to stabilize with fluctuations, and the demand performance should be monitored [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Supply - The weekly output of hot - rolled coils is 3.2875 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 92,000 tons and a month - on - month increase of 92,000 tons. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 32,300 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.65%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points, and an increase of 2.51 percentage points compared with the same period last year [2]. Demand - The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 3.2092 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 60,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60,100 tons, and a decrease of 89,900 tons compared with the same period last year. The weekly output of cold - rolled coils is 887,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 7,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,600 tons, and an increase of 41,200 tons compared with the same period last year [2]. Inventory - The total inventory of hot - rolled coils is 3.4064 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 78,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 78,300 tons, and a decrease of 742,100 tons compared with the same period last year. The in - plant inventory is 763,500 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 13,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,300 tons, and a decrease of 135,500 tons compared with the same period last year. The social inventory is 2.6429 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 65,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 tons, and a decrease of 606,600 tons compared with the same period last year [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated and rebounded with a daily increase of 0.57%. With supply and demand both weakening, the fundamentals remain unchanged, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, focusing on demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated with a daily increase of 0.55%. The supply is increasing while the demand is weakly stable, and the price is expected to oscillate and stabilize in the short term due to improved market sentiment, also focusing on demand [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated higher with a daily increase of 0.86%. The supply is under pressure, and the demand is expected to weaken, but the price may oscillate strongly in the short term supported by the logic of narrowing the discount, focusing on the change in molten iron [4]. Summary of Each Section Industry Dynamics - The global manufacturing PMI was 49.2% in May, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month but below 50% for three consecutive months. The US manufacturing PMI continued to decline [6]. - In May, the average monthly working hours of China's construction machinery products decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The monthly average working hours of excavators were 72.6 hours, and the monthly starting rate was 61% [7]. - On June 3, 2025, Brazil launched an anti - dumping investigation into hot - rolled coils imported from China [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, Tangshan billet, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap are provided, along with the prices of 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, freight, SGX swaps, and the Platts index [9]. Futures Market - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are presented. The rebar contract closed at 2,975 with a 0.57% increase, the hot - rolled coil at 3,092 with a 0.55% increase, and the iron ore at 707.5 with a 0.86% increase [13]. Related Charts - Include charts of steel and iron ore inventories (rebar, hot - rolled coil, 45 - port iron ore, etc.), steel mill production (blast furnace start - up rate, capacity utilization rate, etc.) [15][20][29]. Market Outlook - Rebar: Supply and demand are both weakening. The weekly output decreased by 7.05 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 19.65 tons. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, focusing on demand [39]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply is increasing, with a weekly output increase of 9.20 tons, while the demand is weakly stable, with a weekly apparent demand decrease of 6.01 tons. The price is expected to oscillate and stabilize, paying attention to demand [40]. - Iron ore: The supply is under pressure, and the demand is expected to weaken. The price may oscillate strongly in the short term, focusing on the change in molten iron [41].