美国贸易代表格里尔：我希望扭转美国贸易逆差的趋势，使其随着时间的推移持续减少。 ...

Group 1 - Tesla CEO Elon Musk has publicly split from President Trump after resigning from the Department of Government Efficiency, criticizing the "big and beautiful" tax bill as disgusting [2] - Financial expert Ruan Mu Hua predicts that Trump may ultimately achieve nothing, suggesting that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin could be the next to leave the administration [2] - Ruan Mu Hua reflects on Trump's unfulfilled promises regarding international conflicts and domestic issues, highlighting the lack of progress on national debt and fiscal deficits [2] Group 2 - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed significantly in April to $61.6 billion, a 55.5% reduction from March, primarily due to a sharp decline in imports [4] - The trade deficit had reached a record high of $138.3 billion in March as businesses imported heavily before tariffs took effect, leading to a 16.3% drop in imports in April [4] - Ruan Mu Hua emphasizes that the reduction in trade deficit is not due to increased exports but rather a significant decrease in imports, indicating that the underlying trade issues remain unresolved [4] Group 3 - With Musk's departure, speculation arises about who might leave the Trump administration next, with names like Navarro and Luttig remaining [6] - The ongoing question is whether Trump can turn the situation around amidst the departures and criticisms [6]

Group 1 - The article discusses the transformation of the U.S. dollar from a gold-backed currency to a fiat currency, emphasizing its dual role as both the national currency and a global reserve currency [1][3] - The U.S. trade deficit has dramatically increased from $6 billion in 1975 to nearly $1 trillion in 2022, challenging traditional economic theories that view trade deficits as a sign of economic decline [1][5] - The article highlights the irony of the U.S. imposing tariffs on Chinese goods, which ultimately burdened American consumers and businesses, leading to an increase in the trade deficit during Trump's administration [1][5] Group 2 - The U.S. has a low personal savings rate of 3.8% as of Q3 2023, compared to China's 45%, reflecting a different economic structure that encourages consumption over saving [5] - The U.S. net international investment position reached -$18.3 trillion, indicating that each American citizen owes approximately $55,000 to the rest of the world, yet creditors continue to lend due to the U.S.'s significant consumer market [5][7] - The article points out that U.S. multinational companies contribute significantly to the trade surplus with China, with 40% of the surplus attributed to American firms operating in China [7] Group 3 - The article discusses the "super privilege" of the U.S. dollar, allowing the U.S. to purchase global goods through money printing, which effectively imposes an "inflation tax" on other countries holding dollar reserves [7][9] - The rise of digital currencies is seen as a potential threat to the dollar's dominance, with China's cross-border RMB payments reaching 48% in 2023, indicating a shift in global trade dynamics [9] - The U.S. trade deficit is portrayed as a byproduct of the current international monetary system, reflecting both U.S. economic power and the inherent contradictions of globalization [9]

报告指出，美元实际汇率的波动是推动美国外贸逆差的最持续驱动因素，而逆转过去15年来美元40%的实际升值幅度，可能足以使贸易逆差回归零平衡。 不过，美元大幅贬值将对全球市场产生剧烈冲击，新兴市场和出口导向型经济体将面临严重打击，从而发生全球经济衰退。 据追风交易台，德意志银行经济学家Peter Hooper在最新研究报告中提出了一个看似"简单"的消除美国贸易逆差方案——美元贬值40%。 Hooper认为，现有的关税政策虽有助于缩小逆差，但将带来价格上涨和增长放缓的痛苦代价。所以美国政府未来可能出现政策转向，放弃以关税为重点的贸易 政策。 美国贸易逆差的核心驱动因素 德银报告确定了推动美国贸易逆差达到当前水平的关键因素。报告指出， 美元实际汇率的波动是美国外贸逆差最持续的驱动因素 ，这主要由财政和货币政策 的根本性转变以及海外私人和政府储蓄变化所推动。 报告特别提到，美国对世界其他地区的逆差已扩大到前所未有的高度。特朗普上台之后，不惜推出大萧条以来最大规模的关税政策，正式为了解决这个问题。 美元40%贬值的"解决方案" 德银的关键发现是， 过去15年美元实际汇率相对于一篮子货币平均升值约40%，如果能够逆转这一升 ...

不过，美元大幅贬值将对全球市场产生剧烈冲击，新兴市场和出口导向型经济体将面临严重打击，从而 发生全球经济衰退。 Hooper认为，现有的关税政策虽有助于缩小逆差，但将带来价格上涨和增长放缓的痛苦代价。所以美国 政府未来可能出现政策转向，放弃以关税为重点的贸易政策。 美国贸易逆差的核心驱动因素 德银报告确定了推动美国贸易逆差达到当前水平的关键因素。报告指出，美元实际汇率的波动是美国外 贸逆差最持续的驱动因素，这主要由财政和货币政策的根本性转变以及海外私人和政府储蓄变化所推 动。 报告特别提到，美国对世界其他地区的逆差已扩大到前所未有的高度。特朗普上台之后，不惜推出大萧 条以来最大规模的关税政策，正式为了解决这个问题。 德意志银行经济学家Peter Hooper在最新研究报告中提出了一个看似"简单"的消除美国贸易逆差方案 ——美元贬值40%。 报告指出，美元实际汇率的波动是推动美国外贸逆差的最持续驱动因素，而逆转过去15年来美元40%的 实际升值幅度，可能足以使贸易逆差回归零平衡。 报告警告，美元40%的大幅贬值将对全球经济产生灾难性影响。由于大多数新兴市场经济体和欧洲大部 分地区的增长都是出口驱动型的，美元40 ...

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 宏观 Macroeconomy 特朗普的两个目标均难实现 >>点击图片查看全文<< 特朗普政府试图通过加征关税促使美国贸易逆差收窄，制造业回流，我们认为这两个目标难以通过关税实现。首先，关税难以使得美国贸易逆差收 窄。从理论来看，提升关税并不一定能够缩减逆差（扩大顺差）。根据勒纳对称定理，对进口征税等同于对本国的出口征税。关税难以促使制造业回 流美国。全球供应链对中国的依赖度比较高，而且无论是从劳动者数量、质量，还是就业意愿来看，美国制造业回流都将面临着劳动力短缺的问题。 美国制造业成本高，也是其制造业回流的挑战。特朗普关税或对美国产生滞胀式影响，美国衰退风险加大。除了"滞胀"风险，特朗普的减税、削减支 出和关税组合或将损害美国大多数家庭，对低收入人群损害更大，加剧美国内部不平衡。实际上，从经济视角来看，美国没有非常突出的外部失衡问 题，但内部分配问题很严重。 资料来源：US Census Bureau，中金公司研究部 >>点击图片跳转报告原文<< 2025.04.23 | 张文朗 黄亚东等 02 宏观 Macroeconomy 从汇率、利 ...