【关税升至80年高点，仍难解美国贸易逆差之困】美国最高法院20日裁定，特朗普政府援引《国际紧急 经济权力法》实施的大规模关税政策违法，意味着特朗普政府的关税政策受到重大挫折。数据显示，美 国整体关税水平已攀升至80年来的最高点。然而，2025年，美国商品贸易逆差扩大至1.24万亿美元，创 下历史新高。高关税并未带来制造业回流和就业增长，反而让"逆差困局"更加凸显。关税走高，为何逆 差不降反升？CGTN记者@Zoey朱珠 为你解读。The US Supreme Court on Friday struck down Trump's broad tariffs imposed under a national emergency law as illegal. US tariff rates have climbed to their highest level in eight decades. Yet in 2025, the US goods trade deficit surged to $1.24 trillion, the highest ever recorded. High tariffs hav ...

Core Insights - The U.S. trade deficit recently decreased to a 16-year low, but this improvement is misleading as the trade gap remains near historically high levels [1] Group 1 - The trade deficit fell a few months ago, reaching a low not seen in 16 years [1] - Despite the recent decrease, the U.S. continues to experience a trade gap that is close to historically high levels [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant reduction in the U.S. trade deficit, which fell to $29.4 billion in October, the lowest level since 2009, and a nearly 40% decrease from the previous month, defying market expectations [1][2] - The improvement in the trade deficit is attributed to a notable decline in imports and resilient exports, indicating a rare simultaneous improvement in both areas [1] - The recent trade data reflects adjustments in trade flows due to tariff policies, with companies accelerating the reconfiguration of supply chains and export structures under cost and policy pressures [1][2] Group 2 - The improvement in the trade deficit is not broad-based but concentrated in a few categories, such as a significant increase in gold and other metal exports, while imports of pharmaceutical products decreased, contributing to the lower deficit [2] - Market analysts suggest that the changes observed are more indicative of temporary behavior rather than a fundamental shift in trade trends [2] - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies remains, with the U.S. Supreme Court set to rule on whether the government can impose tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which could impact import pressures [2] Group 3 - In addition to trade factors, monetary policy expectations are also in a sensitive phase, with the U.S. Treasury Secretary indicating that President Trump may finalize the next Federal Reserve Chair selection soon [3] - The current interest rate levels are still significantly above neutral, suggesting an openness to further easing, although most Federal Reserve officials prefer to maintain a wait-and-see approach until more inflation and employment data are available [3] - Overall, the significant narrowing of the trade deficit provides a temporary validation of tariff policy effects, but it is accompanied by structural changes in categories and corporate behavior adjustments, while uncertainties in monetary policy and personnel decisions continue to create market volatility [3]

Group 1 - The Shanghai gold futures closed at 815.60 yuan per gram on September 5, with a slight decrease of 0.06% [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 811.55 yuan per gram, indicating a discount of 4.05 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [1] - The U.S. ISM services PMI showed the fastest expansion in six months, but employment data indicated weakness, with ADP employment growth slowing significantly to 54,000 in August [1] Group 2 - The U.S. trade deficit has widened to its largest level in four months due to a surge in imports [1] - President Trump signed a trade executive order imposing tariffs of up to 15% on most Japanese products, including automobiles and parts [2] - East Wu Futures reported that New York gold futures fell over 0.9%, nearing $3,570, as the labor market shows signs of cooling, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Trade Representative, Katherine Tai, aims to reverse the trend of the U.S. trade deficit, seeking to reduce it over time [1] Group 1 - The U.S. trade deficit has been a persistent issue, and efforts are being made to address it [1]

Group 1 - Tesla CEO Elon Musk has publicly split from President Trump after resigning from the Department of Government Efficiency, criticizing the "big and beautiful" tax bill as disgusting [2] - Financial expert Ruan Mu Hua predicts that Trump may ultimately achieve nothing, suggesting that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin could be the next to leave the administration [2] - Ruan Mu Hua reflects on Trump's unfulfilled promises regarding international conflicts and domestic issues, highlighting the lack of progress on national debt and fiscal deficits [2] Group 2 - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed significantly in April to $61.6 billion, a 55.5% reduction from March, primarily due to a sharp decline in imports [4] - The trade deficit had reached a record high of $138.3 billion in March as businesses imported heavily before tariffs took effect, leading to a 16.3% drop in imports in April [4] - Ruan Mu Hua emphasizes that the reduction in trade deficit is not due to increased exports but rather a significant decrease in imports, indicating that the underlying trade issues remain unresolved [4] Group 3 - With Musk's departure, speculation arises about who might leave the Trump administration next, with names like Navarro and Luttig remaining [6] - The ongoing question is whether Trump can turn the situation around amidst the departures and criticisms [6]

Group 1 - The article discusses the transformation of the U.S. dollar from a gold-backed currency to a fiat currency, emphasizing its dual role as both the national currency and a global reserve currency [1][3] - The U.S. trade deficit has dramatically increased from $6 billion in 1975 to nearly $1 trillion in 2022, challenging traditional economic theories that view trade deficits as a sign of economic decline [1][5] - The article highlights the irony of the U.S. imposing tariffs on Chinese goods, which ultimately burdened American consumers and businesses, leading to an increase in the trade deficit during Trump's administration [1][5] Group 2 - The U.S. has a low personal savings rate of 3.8% as of Q3 2023, compared to China's 45%, reflecting a different economic structure that encourages consumption over saving [5] - The U.S. net international investment position reached -$18.3 trillion, indicating that each American citizen owes approximately $55,000 to the rest of the world, yet creditors continue to lend due to the U.S.'s significant consumer market [5][7] - The article points out that U.S. multinational companies contribute significantly to the trade surplus with China, with 40% of the surplus attributed to American firms operating in China [7] Group 3 - The article discusses the "super privilege" of the U.S. dollar, allowing the U.S. to purchase global goods through money printing, which effectively imposes an "inflation tax" on other countries holding dollar reserves [7][9] - The rise of digital currencies is seen as a potential threat to the dollar's dominance, with China's cross-border RMB payments reaching 48% in 2023, indicating a shift in global trade dynamics [9] - The U.S. trade deficit is portrayed as a byproduct of the current international monetary system, reflecting both U.S. economic power and the inherent contradictions of globalization [9]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank economist Peter Hooper proposes a seemingly "simple" solution to eliminate the US trade deficit: a 40% depreciation of the US dollar [1][6]. Group 1: Key Drivers of US Trade Deficit - The report identifies the fluctuation of the real exchange rate of the dollar as the most persistent driver of the US trade deficit, influenced by fundamental shifts in fiscal and monetary policy as well as changes in overseas private and government savings [4]. - The US trade deficit with the rest of the world has reached unprecedented levels, exacerbated by the largest tariff policies since the Great Depression introduced during Trump's administration [5]. Group 2: Proposed Solution of Dollar Depreciation - The key finding indicates that reversing the 40% real appreciation of the dollar over the past 15 years could potentially bring the trade deficit back to a zero balance or better [2][6]. - A depreciation of the dollar by 20-30% could reduce the trade deficit by approximately 3% of GDP, suggesting that a significant reversal of the dollar's appreciation since 2010 could restore balance [7]. Group 3: Global Economic Implications - A 40% depreciation of the dollar is expected to have catastrophic effects on the global economy, particularly impacting emerging markets and export-driven economies, potentially leading to a global recession [10]. - Although there are more effective and less painful alternatives to address the trade deficit, these options may currently be politically unfeasible. However, as the negative economic impacts of the current tariff-focused policies become more apparent, public pressure may drive a policy shift [10][11]. Group 4: Tariff Policy Effects - The report acknowledges that current tariffs can help reduce the trade deficit to some extent, but at a significant cost of increased prices and reduced output, with these negative effects expected to manifest in the coming months [11]. - While there is no painless solution to deficit reduction, dollar depreciation is suggested as a more effective and less painful path, which may gain traction as the adverse effects of tariff policies become clearer [11].

Group 1 - The core proposal of Deutsche Bank's economist Peter Hooper is to eliminate the US trade deficit by devaluing the dollar by 40% [1][3] - The report identifies the fluctuation of the dollar's real exchange rate as the most persistent driver of the US trade deficit, influenced by fundamental shifts in fiscal and monetary policy as well as changes in overseas private and government savings [2][3] - The report highlights that the US trade deficit has reached unprecedented levels, exacerbated by significant tariff policies implemented since Trump's administration [2][3] Group 2 - A 40% devaluation of the dollar could potentially bring the trade deficit back to a zero balance, reversing the 40% real appreciation of the dollar over the past 15 years [1][3] - The report indicates that a 20-30% devaluation of the dollar could reduce the trade deficit by approximately 3% of GDP, suggesting that a significant reversal of the dollar's appreciation could lead to a balanced trade situation [3][5] - However, a 40% devaluation of the dollar is expected to have catastrophic effects on the global economy, particularly impacting emerging markets and export-driven economies, potentially leading to a global recession [5][6] Group 3 - While current tariff policies may help reduce the trade deficit to some extent, they come with significant costs, including price increases and reduced output, which are expected to become more apparent in the coming months [8][6] - The report suggests that although there are more effective and less painful alternatives to address the trade deficit, these options may currently be politically unfeasible [6][8] - As the negative economic impacts of the current tariff-focused policies become clearer, public pressure may drive a shift in policy direction away from tariffs [6][8]

中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 宏观 Macroeconomy 特朗普的两个目标均难实现 >>点击图片查看全文<< 特朗普政府试图通过加征关税促使美国贸易逆差收窄，制造业回流，我们认为这两个目标难以通过关税实现。首先，关税难以使得美国贸易逆差收 窄。从理论来看，提升关税并不一定能够缩减逆差（扩大顺差）。根据勒纳对称定理，对进口征税等同于对本国的出口征税。关税难以促使制造业回 流美国。全球供应链对中国的依赖度比较高，而且无论是从劳动者数量、质量，还是就业意愿来看，美国制造业回流都将面临着劳动力短缺的问题。 美国制造业成本高，也是其制造业回流的挑战。特朗普关税或对美国产生滞胀式影响，美国衰退风险加大。除了"滞胀"风险，特朗普的减税、削减支 出和关税组合或将损害美国大多数家庭，对低收入人群损害更大，加剧美国内部不平衡。实际上，从经济视角来看，美国没有非常突出的外部失衡问 题，但内部分配问题很严重。 资料来源：US Census Bureau，中金公司研究部 >>点击图片跳转报告原文<< 2025.04.23 | 张文朗 黄亚东等 02 宏观 Macroeconomy 从汇率、利 ...