VIEW 克而瑞研究中心 "每周研究精读" ， 聚焦宏观、行业、房企、土拍、产品、客需、榜单等多个研究成果，与各界探讨行业运 行逻辑、变数及未来趋势。 点击标题阅读全文 专题 2025上半年房企存货管理专题——典型房企计提减值准备仍在继续 以5 0 家典型上市房企为研究样本，揭示行业在"规模收缩"与"风险缓释"中的实践路径，为房企优化库存结构、投资者研判行业风险提供参 考。 2025年上半年房企盈利能力报告——毛利率修复至10.87%，净利润维持亏损 期内确认存货跌价损失494亿，净利润亏损902亿。 2025上半年房企偿债能力报告：现金短债比继续下滑，行业信用修复仍需时间 20 25年中期50家典型上市房企的现金持有量为11867亿元，较期初减少了9. 49%。 观点 头部房企加速布局社群运营，华润、华发均已设立集团IP 土拍｜厦门4宗宅地成交81.25亿元，均由本地国企竞得 9月23日，厦门4宗宅地顺利出让，合计揽金81.2 5亿元，均由本地国企底价竞得。 研报 地产社群运营正被越来越多的房企关注，其热度呈现爆发式增长。 城市更新催生代建需求，企业如何"入场"？ 能否真正理解政策、整合资源、平衡多方诉求， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3] Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit have significantly declined, with a 49% drop in net profit and an 18% decrease in revenue year-on-year for the first half of 2025, attributed to intensified competition in the construction agency industry and a lagging effect from the overall downturn in the real estate market [1][8] - Despite the challenges, the company has seen growth in newly acquired construction area and fees, with a 13.9% increase in new construction area to approximately 19.89 million square meters and a 19.1% rise in new construction fees to around RMB 5 billion [2][9] - The company has maintained a strong market presence, with a high project delivery satisfaction rate of 92% and a robust cash position, leading to the first interim dividend distribution of RMB 0.076 per share [10][2] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of RMB 1.37 billion, a decrease of 18% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 260 million, down 49% year-on-year [1][8] - The gross profit margin for the construction agency business fell by 11.5 percentage points to 40.0% [1][8] - The company expects revenues of RMB 3.6 billion and RMB 3.7 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with net profit forecasts adjusted to RMB 650 million and RMB 631 million for the same years [3][4] Financial Metrics - The company has a projected earnings per share (EPS) of RMB 0.32 for 2025 and RMB 0.31 for 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 9.0 and 9.3 [3][4] - The financial outlook includes a steady cash position of RMB 1.64 billion as of mid-2025, with a year-on-year increase of 8% [10][2] - The company has a dividend payout ratio of approximately 60% for the interim dividend [10][2]

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains its leading position in the construction agency industry despite a decline in revenue and profit due to intensified competition and a downturn in the real estate market, and it is expected to benefit from a market recovery in the medium to long term [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.374 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 256 million yuan, down 48.9% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin fell by 11.5 percentage points to 40.0%, while the management expense ratio increased by 3.2 percentage points to 15.9% [1] - The company had cash on hand of 1.64 billion yuan, an increase of 8% from the end of 2024, and generated operating net cash flow of 112 million yuan, up 45% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market Position and Growth - The company has maintained a market share of over 20% for nine consecutive years, with new project scale increasing in H1 2025 [1] - The total contracted project area reached 12.65 million square meters, with 38.4% of the area pending development, indicating a favorable overall value structure [1] - The company achieved a sales amount of 41.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%, while the marketing expense ratio decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 2.2% [1] Group 3: New Projects and Dividends - In H1 2025, the company expanded its contracted area by 1.989 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, with new project construction fees amounting to approximately 5 billion yuan, up 19.1% year-on-year [2] - The new commercial construction area accounted for 81% of the new projects, with a year-on-year increase of 12 percentage points [2] - The company initiated a mid-term dividend distribution, declaring a dividend of 0.24 yuan per share, maintaining a payout ratio of 60% [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6][13] Core Views - The company, as a leader in the construction agency industry, has maintained a market share exceeding 20% for nine consecutive years, despite a decline in revenue and profit due to intensified industry competition and a downturn in the real estate market [6][7] - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in the real estate market in the medium to long term, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being CNY 939 million, CNY 1,064 million, and CNY 1,181 million respectively, corresponding to EPS of CNY 0.47, CNY 0.53, and CNY 0.59 [6][9] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of CNY 1.374 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 17.7%, and a net profit of CNY 256 million, down 48.9% [7] - The gross margin fell by 11.5 percentage points to 40.0%, while the management expense ratio increased by 3.2 percentage points to 15.9% [7] - The company has cash on hand of CNY 1.64 billion, an increase of 8% from the end of 2024, and achieved operating net cash flow of CNY 112 million, up 45% year-on-year [7] Market Position and Growth - The total contracted project area as of the first half of 2025 is 12.65 million square meters, with 38.4% of the area pending development, indicating a favorable overall value structure [8] - The company achieved a sales amount of CNY 41.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2%, and maintained the industry’s highest project delivery area of 4.65 million square meters [8] - New contract area in the first half of 2025 reached 1.989 million square meters, up 13.9% year-on-year, with a new contract construction fee of approximately CNY 5 billion, an increase of 19.1% [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving dynamics of the real estate market in Guangzhou, highlighting the contrasting trends in mortgage rates and the emergence of innovative development models that prioritize consumer needs and digital transformation in the industry [2][4][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - On May 20, the five-year loan market quotation rate (LPR) was lowered, leading to a 10 basis point reduction in mortgage rates in Beijing and Shanghai, while Guangzhou saw a 10 basis point increase, indicating a potential recovery in market confidence [2]. - Despite the localized recovery in Guangzhou, the overall real estate market remains subdued, with only a few developers benefiting from the current conditions [4]. - The successful launch of the Longhu Yalun Central Scenic project, which sold nearly all its initial offerings, reflects a selective market recovery [4][25]. Group 2: Development Strategies - The article emphasizes the shift from speculative investment to a focus on residential attributes, with developers needing to understand what constitutes a "good residence" [6][18]. - The traditional development model is being replaced by a collaborative approach, where the role of construction companies is evolving to emphasize their professional capabilities [6][27]. - The Longhu Yalun Central Scenic project utilized a data-driven approach for market positioning, leveraging a comprehensive digital platform to analyze various factors influencing real estate development [12][29]. Group 3: Consumer Insights - New consumer expectations are driving developers to create products that offer real value, with a focus on emotional and functional needs in housing [19][24]. - The project features a 9,000 square meter real-life display area to enhance customer experience and showcase the advantages of low density and large land area [21]. - The design of the 139 square meter units includes luxury features typically found in larger homes, catering to the demand for high-quality living spaces at competitive prices [22][24]. Group 4: Digital Transformation - The use of Building Information Modeling (BIM) and virtual construction technologies is highlighted as a key factor in improving design efficiency by 30% and reducing risks associated with project changes [14][17]. - The integration of digital tools throughout the project lifecycle—from design to construction and marketing—ensures a high level of precision and customer confidence [17][31]. - The article notes that the real estate industry has lagged in digital transformation, with only 69% of companies adopting digital practices, but companies like Longhu Longzhizao are leading the charge in changing this trend [30][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.44 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decline by 17.7% to 801 million yuan [1][4]. - The competitive landscape in the construction agency industry is intensifying, leading to a decrease in construction fees and profit margins [1][3]. - Despite the challenges, the company retains a market share of 22.1% in new contracts, maintaining its leading position in the construction agency market [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s revenue is projected at 3.44 billion yuan, with commercial construction revenue at 2.75 billion yuan (up 17.3%) and government construction revenue at 626 million yuan (down 20.6%) [1]. - The gross profit margin for commercial construction is expected to be 51.2% (down 1.1 percentage points), while for government construction, it is projected at 40.1% (down 5.1 percentage points), leading to an overall gross margin of 49.6% (down 2.6 percentage points) [1][3]. Market Position and Strategy - The company signed new construction contracts covering an area of 36.5 million square meters in 2024, a 3.4% increase, but the new contract value decreased by 10.1% to 9.32 billion yuan, with a new contract price of 255 yuan per square meter (down 13.1%) [2]. - The company’s project distribution is increasingly focused on first- and second-tier cities, which now account for 58% of new projects [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of 60%, with a proposed final dividend of 0.24 yuan per share, totaling 482 million yuan [3][4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.57 billion yuan, 3.65 billion yuan, and 3.59 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 768 million yuan, 812 million yuan, and 866 million yuan [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 3.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline by 18% to 800 million yuan due to a decrease in gross margin and credit impairment provisions of approximately 100 million yuan [1][3][9] - The company has seen a 17% increase in commercial construction revenue, which now accounts for 80% of total revenue, while government construction revenue has decreased by 21% [1][9] - The overall gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 49.6%, down 2.6 percentage points from the previous year, with commercial and government construction margins at 51% and 40%, respectively [1][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.4 billion yuan, with a net profit of 800 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 18% [1][3][4] - The gross margin is projected to be 49.6%, with a decrease in both commercial and government construction margins [1][9] Market Position and Expansion - As of the end of 2024, the company operates in 130 cities with a total contracted construction area of 130 million square meters, a 5% year-on-year increase [2][13] - The new signed construction area for 2024 is 36.49 million square meters, with a market share of 22.1%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous year [2][13] Investment Recommendations - Due to the shrinking demand for government construction and increased competition in the construction industry, revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 3.6 billion yuan and 3.7 billion yuan, and 800 million yuan for both years, respectively [3][18] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 is 0.41 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.7 and 6.5 times [3][18]