与生产端"热"形成对比的是需求端"冷"。11月社会消费品零售总额同比仅增1.3%，环比回落0.4个百分 点，创年内新低。网上实物商品零售额虽保持5.7%的增速、占比升至25.9%，但未能对冲线下疲软。记 者获悉，消费乏力背后，是居民收入预期走弱与"预防式"储蓄抬头：前11个月居民存款再增超10万亿 元，五年累计新增逾60万亿元，余额已突破165万亿元。如何"唤醒"巨额储蓄，成为政策新命题。 "在工资性收入提升难度加大的背景下，提高居民财产性收入是撬动消费更快回升的关键。"某权威政策 研究机构人士向记者表示。目前，房价上涨预期已逆转，资本市场被寄予"接棒"厚望。数据显示，上证 综指年内已站上4000点，权益类公募基金前11个月销量突破5000亿元，占比首次超过固收类；全年新增 股民账户超2500万户，月均开户200万户，居民资产正呈现"存款—理财—权益"大迁徙。 投资端亦在"探底"。1—11月全国固定资产投资同比下降2.6%，若剔除房地产开发投资，则微增0.8%。 房地产下拉作用明显：开发投资同比深跌15.9%，连续三年负增长，拖累整体投资。业内预计，2026 年"收储+限供"政策有望加速落地，叠加保交楼资金闭 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current positive changes in prices in China are continuing to accumulate, but the consumer price index (CPI) remains low, necessitating efforts to promote a reasonable recovery in prices [1] Group 1: CPI Analysis - In August, the CPI remained flat month-on-month and shifted from stable to a decline year-on-year, primarily due to the high base effect from the previous year [1] - Food prices in August decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 2.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, significantly impacting the CPI [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month and continuing a trend of rising for four consecutive months [1] Group 2: Industrial and Service Prices - Industrial consumer goods prices saw an increase, with a year-on-year rise of 1.5% in August, up by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, driven by improved supply and demand [2] - Prices for household appliances and entertainment durable goods rose by 4.6% and 2.4% respectively, contributing approximately 0.09 percentage points to the CPI [2] - Service prices increased by 0.6% year-on-year in August, with a 0.1 percentage point rise from the previous month, influenced by increased demand for high-quality social services [2] - Medical and educational service prices rose by 1.6% and 1.2% respectively, while transportation rental and tourism prices increased by 0.8% and 0.7% [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The market supply-demand relationship remains prominent, and the consumer price level is still low, indicating the need for continued efforts to expand domestic demand and implement consumption-boosting initiatives [2]

Economic Growth and Price Trends - The GDP growth for the first half of the year is reported at 5.3%, with Q1 at 5.4% and Q2 at 5.2%, indicating a resilient performance despite challenges [2] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) has seen a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year, while Producer Price Index (PPI) has decreased by 2.8%, suggesting room for improvement in demand-side policies [2] - The core CPI is showing a mild recovery, influenced by rising gold prices and the "old-for-new" policy, which should be continued to support consumer price increases [2] Policy Measures and Market Regulation - The government is focusing on addressing irrational competition in various industries, particularly in sectors like photovoltaic, cement, and steel, to stabilize prices and improve PPI [3] - A meeting on July 1 emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity, which is expected to enhance market order and improve corporate profits [3] - The State Council is implementing actions to boost consumption, including optimizing the "old-for-new" policy and expanding investments in emerging service sectors [4] Real Estate Market Focus - The real estate market is highlighted as a critical economic cycle, with stable housing prices being essential for consumer confidence and demand [5] - The government aims to prevent a decline in housing prices and is committed to policies that will stabilize the real estate market [5] - Overall, the focus is on expanding domestic demand and regulating market order to ensure prices remain within a reasonable range [5]