宏观日报 | 2026-01-28 上游价格持续回升 中观事件总览 生产行业：1）2025年12月开始中国化工品价格筑底回升，当前化工品价格已出现趋势性反转。截至2026年1月26 日，中国化工品价格指数涨至4084，月环比上涨4.2%，12月化学原料及化学制品制造业、化学纤维制造业PPI同比 降幅均有所收窄，显示行业价格压力正持续缓解。 服务行业：1）新修订的《中华人民共和国药品管理法实施条例》27日公布，将于5月15日起施行。国家药监局表 示，这是条例实施二十多年来，首次全面修订。鼓励创新，是这次修订的一个突出特点。支持以临床价值为导向 研究和创制新药，提升仿制药质量和疗效，明确写进新修订条例的总则。2） 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）化工：PTA价格持续上行。2）能源：国际原油、液化天然气价格回升。 中游：1）化工：PX开工率持续高位。2）能源：电厂耗煤量低位延续。3）基建：道路沥青开工低位 下游：1）地产：一、二、三线城市商品房销售季节性回落。2）服务：国内航班班次回升。 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：明察宏观 文 财信研究院宏观团队 李沫 胡文艳 伍超明 核心观点 一、价比量更重要：经济、政策以及资产配置新瞄点 其一，价格直接牵动企业盈利与居民收入，是激活"价格-盈利-收入-消费"内循环的关键枢纽，比GDP等 总量指标更能反映经济内生活力。其二，当前"量增价缩"格局不可持续，推动价格回升至合理区间已是 宏观政策必然选择，否则将侵蚀供需两端并阻碍新质生产力发展。其三，A股市场未来的走势，核心在 于建立"价格-盈利-信心"正向循环，价格回升既是启动盈利修复的关键，也是稳定市场预期的压舱石。 二、2026年价格走势分析 （一）趋势研判：2026年物价回升趋势明确。从宏观视角看，供需缺口趋于收敛、M1增速触底回升、 居民就业筑底改善以及产能周期有望上行等四大领先指标，共同为物价回升奠定基础。从价格构成看， 2026年CPI与PPI的"翘尾因素"将显著高于上年；同时"十五五"开局之年，扩大内需政策与供给侧"反内 卷"政策有望形成合力，共同支撑"新涨价因素"，推动价格实现温和回升。 （二）核心判断：上游主导PPI回升，预计2026年二季度 ...

Report Summary - The annual GDP growth rate in 2025 was 5%, achieving the annual target. Exports grew by 5.5%, consumption by 3.7%, and investment declined by 3.8%. Compared with 2024, the economic structure was further transformed, with high-tech industries standing out. The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.2 pct, exports decreased by 0.3 pct, and investment growth declined by 7 pct [3]. - In December, the production of the manufacturing industry improved significantly, while the growth rate of the mining industry declined. The year-on-year growth rates of the mining, manufacturing, and production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water industries were 5.4%, 5.7%, and 0.8% respectively, with changes of -0.9 pct, +1.1 pct, and -3.5 pct compared to the previous month [1]. - The service industry's business climate improved, especially the producer services. In December, the production index increased by 5% year-on-year, up 0.8 pct from the previous month. Among service industries, information software, leasing and business services, and the financial industry increased by 14.8%, 11.3%, and 6.5% respectively, with growth rates up 1.9 pct, 2.9 pct, and 1.4 pct from the previous month [2]. - In December, the growth rate of the three major investment categories declined, but the investment growth rate of some high-tech manufacturing industries showed resilience. The investment growth rates of manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate were -10.6%, -16.0%, and -35.8% respectively, down 6.1 pct, 4.0 pct, and 5.5 pct from the previous month [4]. - Real estate sales showed marginal stabilization, and new construction and completion improved. In December, the year-on-year sales volume and area of commercial housing were -23.6% and -15.6% respectively, with growth rates up 1.5 pct and 1.7 pct from the previous month. The year-on-year unit price was -9.5%, almost the same as the previous month. In terms of investment, the new construction and completion areas of real estate improved, with year-on-year rates of -19.4% and -18.3% respectively [4]. - Consumption growth slowed down, and the year-on-year growth of catering revenue was weaker than the previous month. In December, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.9% year-on-year, down 0.4 pct from the previous month and lower than the market consensus forecast of 1.48%. Both catering revenue and commodity sales declined from the previous month [4][5]. - In commodity retail, post-real estate cycle products improved, while general consumer goods weakened. In December, the sales growth rates of decoration materials, furniture, home appliances, and automobiles improved compared to the previous month. In contrast, the retail growth rates of grains, oils, beverages, office supplies, and clothing declined. Although precious metals rose rapidly in December, the sales growth rate of gold and silver jewelry declined for the second consecutive month [5]. - In the short term, interest rates showed a muted reaction to economic data. After the data release, the 10-year Treasury bond yield fluctuated by only about 0.3 bp. In the medium to long term, the annual economic data was generally in line with expectations. Two trends emerged: economic structural transformation and improved internal growth momentum. For 2026, "anti-involution" and rising prices suggest limited downside for interest rates [6]. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The 2025 economic data shows that the economy achieved the growth target, with structural transformation and high-tech industry development being prominent features [3]. - In December, there were mixed trends across different sectors, with manufacturing production improving, service industry business climate rising, investment growth slowing, and consumption growth weakening [1][2][4]. - In the medium to long term, the economic structure is transforming, and internal growth momentum is improving. Interest rates are expected to have limited downside in 2026 [6].

华泰证券研报称，12月CPI同比较11月的0.7%进一步回升至0.8%，全年CPI同比较24年的0.2%略回落至 0%。12月食品价格延续改善，核心CPI环比回升至0.2%、同比持平于11月的1.2%，金饰在内的工业消 费品持续对核心CPI同比形成支撑。1月高频指标显示工业品价格呈现加速上涨，可能受供给侧约束、 信贷投放及财政支出"开门红"预期的提振。元旦假期出游人次同比大幅增长且半径扩大，亦有望对服务 业价格形成提振，整体价格回升的持续性仍需关注今年一季度财政扩张力度实际效果。此外，2026年以 旧换新政策对消费品的补贴支持延续、且范围有所优化，不排除服务消费有望得到额外支持，对需求侧 形成托举。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chief strategist of Industrial Securities, Zhang Qiyao, indicates that the recovery of fundamentals is expected to support further market growth by 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - By analyzing the performance of listed companies in the first three quarters of 2025, it is observed that revenue has stabilized, but gross margins are still declining, indicating that pricing remains a major drag on profitability [1] - Since the second half of 2025, policies promoting "de-involution" have led to a rebound in prices in resource sectors, which has contributed to an improvement in gross margins [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - For 2026, nominal economic recovery and price increases are expected to be the most evident trends in the market [1] - According to the latest IMF forecast, China's nominal GDP growth rate in USD terms is projected to reach 6.45% in 2026, significantly higher than in 2025, with continued improvement in listed company profits [1] - The ongoing global liquidity easing is likely to result in a sustained upward trend in the A-share market in 2026 [1] Group 3: Industry Configuration - The market is currently in a structural recovery phase in 2025, with significant differentiation in industry prosperity, leading to a focus on eliminating weaker sectors [1] - As more industries enter the profitability recovery phase in 2026, the market allocation logic may shift from internal competition within sectors to identifying superior industries [1] - Key areas of focus for investment include trends in the AI industry, the "price increase chain," the "overseas expansion chain," and the structural recovery of domestic demand [1]

Group 1: Economic Overview - The macroeconomic data for November shows a clear characteristic of "strong production, weak demand, rising prices, and improved structure" [1][5] - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 4.8% year-on-year, with significant internal structural differentiation; equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing grew by 7.7% and 8.4% respectively, leading the overall industrial growth by 2.9 and 3.6 percentage points [1][5] - The retail sales of consumer goods only increased by 1.3% year-on-year, marking a new low for the year, with online retail sales growing by 5.7% but unable to offset the weakness in offline sales [1][6] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Investment - The weak consumption is attributed to declining expectations of household income and a rise in "precautionary" savings, with household deposits increasing by over 10 trillion yuan in the first eleven months [6] - There is a significant shift in household assets from savings to investments, with over 25 million new stock accounts opened this year and equity public funds surpassing 500 billion yuan in sales [6][7] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, but excluding real estate development, it showed a slight increase of 0.8% [6][7] Group 3: Foreign Trade and Price Trends - In November, the total import and export value increased by 4.1% year-on-year, with exports and imports growing by 5.7% and 1.7% respectively, and a historic trade surplus exceeding 1 trillion USD [7] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.2%, indicating a potential for PPI to turn positive by 2026 [7] - The monetary environment shows a widening gap between M1 and M2, with a notable shift of funds towards equity investments as the one-year fixed deposit rate falls below 1% [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The policy direction for 2026 will focus on "three stabilizations and three expansions," aiming to stabilize employment, enterprises, and expectations while expanding domestic demand, high-end supply, and institutional openness [7] - The current market trend is expected to enhance household financial income, counteract real estate wealth depreciation, and provide financing support for technology innovation enterprises [8]

Core Viewpoint - The current positive changes in prices in China are continuing to accumulate, but the consumer price index (CPI) remains low, necessitating efforts to promote a reasonable recovery in prices [1] Group 1: CPI Analysis - In August, the CPI remained flat month-on-month and shifted from stable to a decline year-on-year, primarily due to the high base effect from the previous year [1] - Food prices in August decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 2.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, significantly impacting the CPI [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month and continuing a trend of rising for four consecutive months [1] Group 2: Industrial and Service Prices - Industrial consumer goods prices saw an increase, with a year-on-year rise of 1.5% in August, up by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, driven by improved supply and demand [2] - Prices for household appliances and entertainment durable goods rose by 4.6% and 2.4% respectively, contributing approximately 0.09 percentage points to the CPI [2] - Service prices increased by 0.6% year-on-year in August, with a 0.1 percentage point rise from the previous month, influenced by increased demand for high-quality social services [2] - Medical and educational service prices rose by 1.6% and 1.2% respectively, while transportation rental and tourism prices increased by 0.8% and 0.7% [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The market supply-demand relationship remains prominent, and the consumer price level is still low, indicating the need for continued efforts to expand domestic demand and implement consumption-boosting initiatives [2]

Economic Growth and Price Trends - The GDP growth for the first half of the year is reported at 5.3%, with Q1 at 5.4% and Q2 at 5.2%, indicating a resilient performance despite challenges [2] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) has seen a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year, while Producer Price Index (PPI) has decreased by 2.8%, suggesting room for improvement in demand-side policies [2] - The core CPI is showing a mild recovery, influenced by rising gold prices and the "old-for-new" policy, which should be continued to support consumer price increases [2] Policy Measures and Market Regulation - The government is focusing on addressing irrational competition in various industries, particularly in sectors like photovoltaic, cement, and steel, to stabilize prices and improve PPI [3] - A meeting on July 1 emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity, which is expected to enhance market order and improve corporate profits [3] - The State Council is implementing actions to boost consumption, including optimizing the "old-for-new" policy and expanding investments in emerging service sectors [4] Real Estate Market Focus - The real estate market is highlighted as a critical economic cycle, with stable housing prices being essential for consumer confidence and demand [5] - The government aims to prevent a decline in housing prices and is committed to policies that will stabilize the real estate market [5] - Overall, the focus is on expanding domestic demand and regulating market order to ensure prices remain within a reasonable range [5]