白酒：颠覆中重塑 20250813 中期维度内，白酒行业需重点关注需求侧因素，包括信用扩张和人均收入等。 白酒业绩及微观指标在中周期内围绕需求侧波动，可分为渠道底、业绩底和库 存底三个层次。首先是渠道利润下降，其次是业绩同比增速下滑幅度收窄，最 后是库存稳定两到三个季度不再上升。对于投资者而言，把握渠道底和业绩底 即可，因为库存底滞后性较强。 长期来看，白酒行业的产业逻辑和定价逻辑将如何演变？ 长期来看，白酒商品属性会随着社会及人口结构变化而演变。目前经济去杠杆 和人口老龄化趋势使得快消属性强化，高端消费属性弱化。因此，高端白酒股 价调整明显。在这种背景下，企业成长逻辑将由量价逻辑转向抢份额，同时头 部企业经过调整后进入低速但稳定增长阶段。这种情况下，可采用 PB-ROE 框 架进行资产定价，将其视为内在资产。 如何判断当前周期中的白酒市场是否已经见底？ 摘要 白酒行业正经历从价格逻辑向份额逻辑的转变，并从成长型资产过渡到 红利资产，长期来看，企业需通过提升市场占有率来实现增长，而非依 赖价格上涨。 中期维度内，白酒行业受需求侧因素驱动，如信用扩张和人均收入，业 绩波动呈现渠道底、业绩底和库存底三个层次，投资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The policy variables are accelerating the clearing of the liquor industry, with the industry moving towards performance bottoms, and stock prices are expected to turn before demand-side recovery [1][3][18] Mid-Cycle Analysis - The core contradiction in the liquor industry remains on the demand side, with the adjustment process involving channel bottoms, performance bottoms, and inventory bottoms in that order [3][7] - Currently, the industry is at the channel profit bottom and is accelerating towards the performance bottom, which is expected to be reached by mid-2026 [7][18] - The liquor sector is transitioning from a growth stock to a "quasi-debt asset" as the growth logic shifts from volume-price to market share [2][43] Structural Changes - The high-end consumption attribute of liquor is weakening while its fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) attribute is strengthening, leading to a shift from volume-price logic to market share logic [44][60] - The industry is experiencing a structural change where the pricing mechanism is being redefined, with a focus on stable returns and dividends [2][72] Demand Side Dynamics - The demand pressure on liquor is easing as the real estate and debt cycles pass their steepest decline phases, which is expected to positively influence consumer spending [21][24] - The liquor industry is currently at the channel profit bottom and is moving towards the performance bottom, with expectations that the performance bottom will precede the demand bottom [24][26] Investment Logic Transformation - The investment logic for liquor is being restructured, with a focus on maintaining stable return on equity (ROE) and the ability to provide dividends and share buybacks [75][72] - The transition from a growth stock to a quasi-debt asset requires the industry to undergo a complete inventory cycle and establish stable growth expectations [75][72] Market Share Focus - Future growth in the liquor industry will be driven by market share rather than total volume expansion, emphasizing the importance of brand influence and product line positioning [60][61] - Companies that can enhance their market share must have strong brand recognition, effective customer acquisition strategies, and sufficient production capacity [61][75]

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that policy variables are accelerating the clearing of the liquor industry, with the industry moving towards performance bottoms, and stock prices are expected to turn before demand-side indicators [1] Investment Recommendations - The industry is currently experiencing three bottoms: channel bottom, performance bottom, and inventory bottom, in that order. The performance bottom is expected to be reached by mid-2026, with stock prices likely to show a trend reversal before demand-side indicators [2] - The changing economic structure and demographic characteristics in China are leading to a shift in liquor's consumption attributes from high-end to fast-moving consumer goods, indicating that companies with a focus on market share will have a competitive advantage [2] Long-term Perspective - The investment logic for liquor is being reshaped from "cyclical growth" to "quasi-debt assets." As the product attributes change, the focus will shift from volume-price logic to market share logic, with stable return on equity (ROE) becoming increasingly important for pricing [3] - The industry will require a significant amount of time to complete this pricing transition, necessitating a reconstruction of stable growth expectations and consistent dividend and buyback policies [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan Securities indicates that policy variables are accelerating the clearing process in the liquor industry, with expectations of reaching performance bottoms by mid-2026, and that liquor stock prices may show a trend reversal ahead of demand-side recovery [1][2] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The core contradiction in the liquor industry remains on the demand side, with the adjustment process focusing on three bottoms: channel bottom, performance bottom, and inventory bottom, in that order [2] - The current phase is at the channel profit bottom, moving towards the performance bottom, which is expected to be reached by mid-2026 [2] - Liquor stocks are anticipated to show a trend-level turning point before the demand side does, based on high-frequency signals such as batch prices [2] Group 2: Transformation of Liquor Attributes - The economic structure and demographic characteristics in China are leading to a shift in liquor's commodity attributes, with high-end consumption properties weakening and fast-moving consumer goods attributes strengthening [2] - The growth logic for liquor companies is evolving from a volume-price logic to a share logic, where companies with share logic will demonstrate sustained competitive advantages [2] Group 3: Long-term Investment Logic - The investment logic for liquor is being redefined from "cyclical growth" to "quasi-debt assets," with most liquor stocks expected to see weakened growth potential [3] - A few companies with competitive advantages may internalize their strengths into "quasi-debt assets," making stable ROE increasingly important for liquor pricing [3] - The industry will require a significant amount of time to complete this pricing transition, necessitating a reconstruction of stable growth expectations and consistent dividend and buyback plans [3]