摘要周三（12月17日）亚市午后盘，贵金属继续冲高，铂主力合约日内涨幅扩大至6.00%，现报522.70 元/克。现货铂金涨逾3%，至1909.15美元/盎司。沪银主力合约日内涨超5.00%，现报15512元/千克。沪 金主力合约涨0.56%，报981.12元/克。 周三（12月17日）亚市午后盘，贵金属期货牛市火力全开，铂主力合约日内涨幅扩大至6.00%，现报 522.70元/克。现货铂金涨逾3%，至1909.15美元/盎司。沪银主力合约日内涨超5.00%，现报15512元/千 克。沪金主力合约涨0.56%，报981.12元/克。 地缘政治紧张局势也为金价提供了支撑。美国总统特朗普周二下令全面封锁所有进出委内瑞拉的受制裁 油轮，并将委内瑞拉政权认定为外国恐怖组织，此举可能显著加剧美委紧张关系。同时，俄乌冲突持 续，俄罗斯方面表示暂无停火意愿，因为停火只会给乌克兰一个喘息之机，使其更好地为继续战争做好 准备，并坚决反对北约军队在乌克兰部署。 投资者正密切关注即将公布的美国通胀数据，包括周四的11月消费者物价指数（CPI）以及周五发布的 美联储青睐的通胀指标——个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数，以寻找未来货币政策 ...

12月8日，国内期市有色金属板块互有涨跌。其中，沪铜期货盘面表现偏强，截至发稿主力合约报 93130.00元/吨，震荡上行1.71%。 库存方面，南华期货（603093）指出，截至12月5日，上期所铜注册仓单30936吨，环比回落1203吨，上 海铜库存88905吨，环比回落9025吨；LME铜注册仓单98700吨，环比回升200吨，注销仓单63850吨； LME铜库存162550吨，环比回落275吨；COMEX铜库存436853吨，环比回升1022吨。 展望后市，宁证期货表示，短期内，市场情绪和库存流动主导价格，预计铜价将维持高位震荡，需警惕 情绪回落后的回调风险。关注美联储12月会议结果。 宏观方面，据中信建投（601066）期货介绍，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文.哈塞特成为新一届美联储 主席的热门人选，其偏鸽的政策主张或加速美联储降息进程，低利率预期驱动有色金属价格向上。 基本面上，申银万国期货分析称，精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，冶炼产量虽环比回 落，但总体延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力投资稳定；汽车产销正增长；家电产量负增长；地 产持续疲弱。矿供应扰动导致全球铜供求转向缺口。关注美 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Silver prices experienced a daily increase of 1.60%, reaching $50.72 per ounce, influenced by internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding further interest rate cuts [1] - The longest government shutdown in U.S. history lasted 41 days, causing significant economic pressure, yet optimism about a potential resolution has emerged, raising market risk appetite [3] - Despite improved risk sentiment, gold prices continued to rise, driven by lingering economic concerns and expectations of interest rate cuts [3] Group 2: Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve faces challenges balancing inflation pressures and weak employment, with differing views among its members on the need for further rate cuts [1] - U.S. container cargo imports fell by 7.5% year-on-year in October, with a notable 16.3% drop in goods from China, reflecting ongoing trade uncertainties [4] - The U.S. Treasury yield curve is flattening, indicating investor concerns about rising inflation expectations and the potential pause in the Fed's rate-cutting cycle [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The silver market is currently in an upward price trend, with a support level identified at approximately $49.36 [8] - The MACD indicator shows a bullish trend, although market activity is decreasing, suggesting cautious trading strategies [8] - Suggested trading strategies include positioning for long trades near the support level and short trades at resistance levels, emphasizing a light trading approach [8]

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve has upgraded its U.S. economic growth outlook, expecting GDP to rise 1.6% in 2025, accelerating to 1.8% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027 [2] - The Fed's dovish stance has led to increased optimism on Wall Street, with strategists from Wells Fargo, Barclays, and Deutsche Bank raising their S&P 500 targets due to resilient earnings, the AI investment cycle, and the prospect of lower rates [3] Market Performance - The S&P 500 has gained about 3.40% so far in September, rebounding around 33% since early April [1] - The S&P Global US PMI Composite Output Index was at 54.6 in August, indicating solid U.S. growth despite a slight decrease from July's 55.1 [5] - Financials and technology sectors were highlighted as top performers in August, contributing to the recent gains in the S&P 500 [5] Sector ETFs - The Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) has gained 13.73% over the past three months and 19.87% over the past year, with major allocations to Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL) [7] - The Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) has gained 6.34% over the past three months and 19.81% over the past year, with significant exposure to JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) [8] - The Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF has gained 6.67% over the past three months and 17.23% over the past year, with RTX Corporation also included in its holdings [10] Health Care Sector - The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) has an asset base of $33.76 billion and charges an annual fee of 0.08%, with top allocations to Eli Lilly (LLY), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and AbbVie (ABBV) [11] - Despite a 10.55% decline over the past year, the Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF has gained 2.54% quarter to date and 0.27% month to date [10][12]

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 新任美联储理事Miran：9月点阵图里的低利率预期是我给出的。 我不认为关税会造成任何实质性的通 胀。 特朗普的移民政策将带来反通胀效果。 ...

Group 1 - The post-pandemic rally in emerging markets (EM) assets has faced a decline, but there are signs that the trend may be reversing in favor of EM [1] - Anticipation for lower interest rates is building in capital markets, which typically benefits EM assets, leading to a weaker dollar and a rising MSCI Emerging Markets Index [2][3] - EM equities are expected to outperform due to easing local monetary policies boosting domestic lending and consumption, alongside a weaker dollar [3] Group 2 - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has shown a performance disparity compared to the MSCI World Index, with the divergence beginning before the April tariff sell-offs [5] - Traders can explore individual stocks in EM for potential opportunities, but this approach carries concentration risk; diversifying through the MSCI EM index can mitigate unsystematic risk [7] - For bullish traders, Direxion offers products like the Direxion Daily MSCI Emerging Markets Bull 3X Shares (EDC) to amplify exposure to the MSCI EM index [8]