[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 9 Oct 2025 中国零售 China (A-share) Retail 大消费渠道脉搏：华南购物中心专家交流，黄金周线下零售表现承压，品牌表现分化 Consumer Channel Pulse: South Shopping Mall Experts Meeting, Offline Retail Sale was Under Pressure, with Brand Performance Showing Divergence during Golden Week 寇媛媛 Yuanyuan Kou 骆雅丽 Yali Luo yy.kou@htisec.com yl.luo@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件：2025 年 10 月 8 日，海通国际海外消费组邀请华南地区购物中心专家分享 25Q3 及黄金周线下零售情况。 25Q3 及黄金周前 3 天华南地 ...

Core Viewpoint - The outdoor brand Arc'teryx faced significant backlash for hosting a large-scale fireworks show in the environmentally sensitive Himalayan region, raising questions about the brand's commitment to nature and sustainability [3][4][6]. Group 1: Event Overview - The fireworks event, a collaboration between Arc'teryx and artist Cai Guoqiang, was intended to elevate the brand's artistic spirit but resulted in widespread criticism regarding environmental impact [3][4]. - Following the event, both Arc'teryx and Cai Guoqiang issued apologies, and the incident prompted official investigations, leading to a significant drop in the market value of related company Anta Sports, which lost 7.7 billion in market capitalization [4][10]. Group 2: Environmental Concerns - The Himalayan ecosystem is fragile, with slow soil recovery and sensitivity to noise and chemical pollutants, making the fireworks display particularly damaging [7][9]. - Despite claims of using eco-friendly materials and obtaining necessary approvals, public skepticism remained regarding the effectiveness and scientific evaluation of these measures [9][10]. Group 3: Brand Image and Public Expectations - Arc'teryx's actions contradicted its established brand values of high performance and respect for nature, leading to public outrage over perceived hypocrisy [10][11]. - The incident highlighted the growing public expectation for brands to act as responsible citizens, not just providers of products and services [6][10]. Group 4: Lessons for Other Brands - The event serves as a cautionary tale for beauty brands, emphasizing the importance of aligning brand values with actual practices and avoiding actions that could harm the environment [11][12]. - Brands should carefully consider the potential offensive nature of their marketing strategies and ensure that public discussions around their actions are constructive rather than damaging [12][13]. - Effective crisis response is crucial, with brands needing to develop comprehensive plans that include sincere apologies and transparent action plans following any missteps [13][14]. Group 5: Sustainable Practices in the Industry - Companies like Naturals have successfully integrated sustainability into their business models, demonstrating long-term commitment to environmental stewardship through initiatives like the "Himalayan Environmental Protection Fund" [16][19]. - Other brands, such as L'Oréal and L'Occitane, have implemented sustainable practices across their operations, focusing on biodiversity and environmental impact assessments [22][23].

Core Insights - The article discusses how certain industries are thriving despite the overall economic downturn, highlighting eight key sectors that present significant business opportunities in a low-desire society [2][4]. Group 1: Key Industries - **Second-hand Economy**: The second-hand luxury market in Japan, represented by companies like Daikokuya, has seen a surge in revenue. In China, platforms like Hongbulin and Panghu are experiencing similar growth [4][5][6]. - **Pet Economy**: With a decline in birth rates, spending on pets has increased. Companies like Inaba in Japan and Guobao in China are capitalizing on this trend, with various pet brands seeing rising sales [8][9]. - **Adult Care**: The adult diaper market in Japan has surpassed $10 billion, indicating a significant opportunity for adult care products in China, particularly with brands like Kexin [10][11][12]. - **Health Food and Beverages**: The rise in health consciousness has led to increased demand for sugar-free products and functional beverages in both Japan and China, with brands like Dongfang Shuye and Jianchun gaining traction [15][16]. - **Beauty and Personal Care**: Despite economic constraints, spending on beauty products remains strong, with high-priced items like collagen supplements and home beauty devices seeing significant sales [19][20][21][22]. - **Outdoor Recreation**: The outdoor equipment market is booming, with brands like Snow Peak in Japan and various Chinese brands experiencing rapid sales growth [24][25][26]. - **Emotional Economy**: Products that provide emotional comfort, such as low-alcohol beverages and comfort foods, are gaining popularity among younger consumers [27][28][30]. - **Convenience Foods**: The demand for frozen foods and smart home appliances that save time is increasing, with brands like Anjiyuan and Kewotai seeing steady growth [34][35]. Group 2: Market Trends - **Consumer Behavior**: The article emphasizes that in a low-desire economy, consumers are prioritizing time-saving products over cost-saving ones, indicating a shift in purchasing priorities [35][38]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The current economic climate presents opportunities for those willing to invest in counter-cyclical sectors, suggesting that companies that can identify and act on these trends will emerge as winners [38]. - **Educational Initiatives**: The article promotes a course aimed at helping businesses understand how to thrive in the current market, featuring insights from industry leaders on product innovation and brand expansion [39][40][47].

Core Insights - The article discusses how certain industries are thriving despite the overall economic downturn, highlighting eight key sectors that present significant business opportunities in a low-desire society [3][4]. Group 1: Key Industries - The second-hand economy is booming, with companies like Da Hei Wu in Japan and Hongbulin in China seeing substantial revenue growth as consumers shift towards purchasing second-hand luxury goods [6][7][8]. - The pet economy is on the rise, with brands like Guobao and various pet hospitals experiencing strong sales, indicating that spending on pets is becoming a necessity for many [12][13][14]. - The adult care market is expanding, particularly in Japan where the adult diaper market has surpassed $10 billion, suggesting a significant growth potential in China as well [15][16][17]. - Health food and beverage sectors are thriving due to changing demographics and rising health consciousness, with brands like Dongfang Shuye and Jianchun gaining popularity [20][21]. - The beauty economy remains robust, with products like collagen supplements and home beauty devices achieving high sales, indicating a persistent demand for beauty solutions [24][25][26]. - Outdoor leisure products are gaining traction, with brands like Kailas and Camel seeing rapid sales growth as consumers seek outdoor experiences [29][30]. - The emotional economy is flourishing, with brands like Labubu and Rio catering to consumers' emotional needs, demonstrating a willingness to spend on small pleasures [32][33]. - The lazy economy is emerging, with frozen food brands and smart home appliances gaining popularity as consumers seek convenience in their daily lives [36][37][38]. Group 2: Market Trends - The article emphasizes that even in a low-desire period, the biggest winners are those who can identify and invest in counter-cyclical opportunities [40]. - It suggests that understanding the Japanese market's evolution can provide valuable insights for Chinese brands looking to innovate and adapt to changing consumer behaviors [46][47]. - The article highlights the importance of emotional resonance and lifestyle definition in product development, as seen in successful Japanese brands [48][49].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid changes in consumer preferences among the middle class in China, particularly regarding outdoor activities such as camping, cycling, and skiing, highlighting a shift from enthusiasm to disillusionment and the impact on related industries [3][5][12]. Group 1: Changing Consumer Preferences - The once-popular outdoor activities, referred to as the "three treasures" of the middle class, have seen a decline in interest, with social media reflecting a shift from promotion to liquidation of related gear [5][6]. - The middle class's preferences are volatile, with trends rapidly changing from traditional sports to newer activities like camping and cycling, which were once seen as symbols of a refined lifestyle [7][12]. - Data from the China Bicycle Association indicates a 15.1% year-on-year increase in the production of mid-to-high-end bicycles priced over 1,000 yuan in 2023, reflecting a brief surge in interest before a downturn [9]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The skiing industry, influenced by the Winter Olympics, saw a significant increase in participation, with a 209% rise in ski ticket orders in early November 2023 compared to 2019 [9][11]. - However, the skiing market is experiencing a downturn, with many brands reporting sales declines of 30%-50% and some even halting operations due to excess inventory [17][19]. - The camping industry, which thrived during the pandemic, is now facing challenges as many businesses are unable to sustain operations, leading to closures and a significant drop in consumer interest [21][22]. Group 3: Economic Factors - The article notes a shift in consumer behavior towards cost-effectiveness, with middle-class individuals prioritizing budget-friendly options over luxury experiences, leading to a decline in spending on outdoor activities [24][26]. - The economic environment has changed, with individuals now more focused on finding discounts and deals, contrasting sharply with previous years of carefree spending [25][26]. - The article emphasizes that the outdoor industry is facing a "survival of the fittest" scenario, where only those with deep industry knowledge and experience will thrive amid the changing landscape [30][31].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how certain industries are thriving despite a general perception of economic downturn, highlighting eight sectors that present significant business opportunities in a low-desire society [3]. Group 1: Economic Trends - The concept of a "low-desire society" does not equate to a lack of opportunities, as consumer behavior is shifting towards different spending patterns [4]. - The phenomenon of consumption upgrading and demand migration is identified as the largest business opportunity [5]. Group 2: Key Industries - **Second-hand Economy**: The second-hand luxury market in Japan, represented by companies like Daikokuya, has seen a significant revenue increase. In China, platforms like Hongbulin and Panghu are experiencing similar growth [6][7]. - **Pet Economy**: Despite declining birth rates, spending on pets is increasing, with brands like Inaba in Japan and Guobao in China seeing strong sales [10][11]. The pet healthcare sector is also expanding rapidly [12][13]. - **Adult Care**: The adult diaper market in Japan has surpassed $10 billion, indicating a substantial growth potential for similar products in China [14][15][16]. - **Health Food and Beverages**: Changes in population structure and rising health awareness are driving the growth of sugar-free beverages and functional foods in both Japan and China [19][20]. - **Beauty Economy**: The demand for beauty products, such as collagen supplements and home beauty devices, remains strong, indicating that beauty is both an economic and therapeutic necessity [22]. - **Outdoor and Leisure**: The outdoor equipment market is thriving, with brands in China experiencing rapid sales growth, reflecting a desire for leisure activities despite economic constraints [22]. - **Emotional Economy**: Products that provide emotional comfort, such as low-alcohol beverages and unique consumer goods, are gaining popularity [23][24]. - **Convenience Economy**: The demand for convenience foods and smart home appliances is rising as younger generations seek to save time in cooking and household chores [27][28]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The article suggests that while many perceive the current market as a "cold winter," the true winners are those who can identify and invest in counter-cyclical opportunities [31].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the youth consumption market is shifting towards "new" trends, particularly during the graduation season, with significant increases in sales of digital products and outdoor equipment, reflecting new demands from the youth demographic [1] - The growth in graduation season consumption is driven by multiple factors, including government subsidies for digital products, financial institutions promoting consumption, and a focus on emotional and experiential aspects of purchases [1][2] - The rise of e-commerce, AI personalized recommendations, and AR technologies has expanded the choices available for youth consumers during the graduation season [1] Group 2 - The shift towards "new" consumption patterns can unlock potential for market growth and create new opportunities, emphasizing the need for a sustainable and rational consumption approach among graduates [2] - There is a call to increase quality supply by developing products that resonate emotionally with youth, incorporating elements of traditional culture into modern aesthetics, and offering discounts for graduates at tourist attractions [2] - Innovation in business models is encouraged, with a focus on creating new consumption venues such as themed hotels and creative markets, while enhancing the integration of online and offline experiences for youth [2][3] Group 3 - Improving the consumption environment is essential, which includes establishing a collaborative regulatory mechanism, enhancing consumer rights protection, and ensuring transparency in the consumption process [3] - Strengthening industry self-regulation and platform accountability is necessary to ensure quality and transparency in graduation season consumption [3] - There is a need for increased data security measures to protect against issues like information leakage and algorithmic discrimination, ensuring a safe digital consumption environment for youth [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses how certain industries are thriving despite a general perception of economic downturn, highlighting eight key sectors that present significant business opportunities in a low-desire society [3][4]. Group 1: Key Industries - **Second-hand Economy**: The second-hand luxury market in Japan, represented by companies like Daikokuya, has seen a surge in revenue. In China, platforms like Hongbulin and Panghu are experiencing similar growth [6][7][9]. - **Pet Economy**: With a decline in birth rates, spending on pets has increased. Companies like Inaba in Japan and Guobao in China are capitalizing on this trend, with pet food and healthcare products seeing significant sales growth [10][12][13]. - **Adult Care**: The adult diaper market in Japan has surpassed $10 billion, indicating a strong potential for similar products in China, particularly as the population ages [14][15][16]. - **Health Food and Beverages**: Changes in population structure and rising health awareness have led to the success of sugar-free products and functional beverages in both Japan and China [19][20]. - **Beauty Economy**: Despite economic constraints, demand for beauty products like collagen supplements and home beauty devices remains high, indicating a persistent consumer interest in personal care [22]. - **Outdoor Recreation**: The outdoor equipment market is thriving, with brands in both Japan and China seeing significant sales growth, as consumers seek leisure activities despite economic challenges [22]. - **Emotional Economy**: Products that provide emotional comfort, such as low-alcohol beverages and unique consumer goods, are gaining popularity, reflecting a shift in consumer spending habits [23][24]. - **Lazy Economy**: The demand for convenience products, such as frozen foods and smart home appliances, is increasing as younger generations prioritize time-saving solutions [27][28][29]. Group 2: Market Trends - **Consumer Behavior**: The article emphasizes that even in a low-desire economy, there are opportunities for growth in sectors that cater to changing consumer needs and preferences [31]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies that can identify and invest in these counter-cyclical sectors are likely to emerge as winners in the current economic climate [31].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how certain industries are thriving despite a general perception of economic downturn, highlighting eight sectors that present significant business opportunities in a low-desire society [3][4]. Group 1: Key Industries - **Second-hand Economy**: The second-hand luxury market in Japan, represented by companies like Daikokuya, has seen a surge in revenue. In China, platforms like Hongbulin and Panghu are experiencing similar growth [6][7][9]. - **Pet Economy**: Despite declining birth rates, spending on pets is increasing, with brands like Inaba in Japan and Guobao in China seeing strong sales. The pet healthcare sector is also expanding significantly [10][11][13][14]. - **Adult Care**: The adult diaper market in Japan has surpassed $10 billion, indicating a growing potential for similar products in China, driven by an aging population [15][16][17]. - **Health Food and Beverages**: Changes in population structure and rising health awareness have led to the success of sugar-free products and functional beverages in both Japan and China [20][21]. - **Beauty Economy**: The demand for beauty products remains strong, with companies like Jinbo Bio achieving high market valuations through collagen products, indicating a persistent consumer interest in beauty [23]. - **Outdoor and Leisure**: The outdoor equipment market is thriving, with brands in China experiencing rapid sales growth, reflecting a desire for leisure activities despite economic constraints [24]. - **Emotional Economy**: Brands like Labubu and Rio are capitalizing on the need for emotional comfort, showing that consumers are willing to spend on experiences that provide joy [24][25]. - **Lazy Economy**: The trend towards convenience is evident in the growth of frozen food brands and smart home appliances, which cater to a generation with less time for cooking [28][29][30]. Group 2: Market Insights - The article emphasizes that even in a low-desire economy, there are significant opportunities for those willing to invest in counter-cyclical sectors. It encourages stakeholders to recognize and act on these emerging trends [32].

Core Insights - The article discusses how certain industries are thriving despite the prevailing narrative of economic hardship, highlighting eight sectors that present significant business opportunities in a low-desire society [3][4]. Group 1: Key Industries - The second-hand economy is booming, with companies like Dabaiku in Japan and Hongbulin in China seeing substantial revenue growth as consumers turn to second-hand luxury goods [8][6]. - The pet economy is flourishing, with brands like Inaba and Guobao experiencing strong stock performance, as consumers prioritize spending on pet products over traditional family expenses [9][10]. - The adult care market, exemplified by Unicharm's success in Japan, is projected to grow significantly in China, driven by an aging population [14][16]. - Health food and beverage sectors are expanding, with brands like Dongfang Shuye and Jianchun capitalizing on the rising health consciousness among consumers [19][20]. - The beauty economy remains robust, with products like collagen supplements and home beauty devices achieving high sales, indicating a persistent demand for beauty solutions [23]. - Outdoor and leisure products are gaining traction, with brands like Snow Peak and Kailas seeing increased sales as consumers seek outdoor experiences [25]. - The emotional economy is on the rise, with brands like Labubu and Rio catering to consumers' desires for comfort and enjoyment [27][28]. - The convenience economy is thriving, with frozen food brands and smart home appliances addressing the needs of younger generations who prioritize time-saving solutions [32][33]. Group 2: Market Trends - The article emphasizes that even in a low-desire period, there are significant opportunities for companies that can identify and invest in counter-cyclical sectors [36]. - The upcoming seminar aims to provide insights into the methodologies of successful consumer giants in Japan and China, focusing on efficiency, demand reconstruction, and capital strategies [37].