Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is facing unprecedented challenges in guiding the economy amid a weak labor market and persistent inflation, exacerbated by the government shutdown [1] - The shutdown has disrupted the Fed's access to essential economic data, complicating its ability to make informed decisions regarding interest rates and economic policies [1][2] - The Fed is now relying on alternative data sources to assess labor market conditions and consumer spending, which are critical for balancing economic growth and price stability [1] Economic Data Dependency - The lack of government data is significantly hindering the Fed's decision-making process, as government statistics are considered the "gold standard" for measuring the U.S. economy [2] - The last time the Fed operated without key government economic data was during the 2018-2019 government shutdown, where it had to rely on credit card transactions and auto sales data [2] - Economists express concerns that private sector data cannot fully substitute for government data, especially since government data serves as a benchmark for many private sector metrics [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate reduction to a neutral level of 3% will not resolve the housing affordability crisis [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve, represented by Daly, emphasizes that simply lowering interest rates is insufficient to address the ongoing issues of housing affordability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the urgent measures being considered by the Trump administration to address the housing affordability crisis in the U.S., highlighting the increasing trend of homeowners opting for cash-out refinancing to pay off debts amid high inflation and personal debt levels [3][4][5]. Group 1: Housing Affordability Crisis - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra indicated that the Trump administration is contemplating declaring a national housing emergency this fall to tackle rising home prices and reduced supply [4]. - The government is exploring ways to simplify permits and encourage standardized local building and zoning regulations to boost housing supply and lower costs [4]. - The current housing market challenges have led to financial polarization, increasing rental costs and higher mortgage rates for potential homebuyers [4]. Group 2: Cash-Out Refinancing Trends - The proportion of cash-out refinancing transactions has risen to 59% of all refinancing in Q2, as homeowners seek to extract cash from their properties to pay off debts [7][8]. - A significant percentage (44% to 67%) of refinancing borrowers reported using the cash for debt repayment, reflecting the high levels of consumer debt, which reached a record $5.44 trillion by the end of June [7]. - Many homeowners are facing negative cash flow situations, prompting them to leverage their home equity despite the potential for higher mortgage rates [7][8]. Group 3: Financial Implications - Approximately 70% of recent cash-out refinancing borrowers are accepting higher mortgage rates, averaging an increase of 1.45 percentage points for $94,000 in cash [8]. - The decision to refinance is influenced by the higher rates of other loans, such as credit cards averaging 21% and personal loans at 12%, making cash-out refinancing a more appealing option despite the costs [8]. - Homeowners are prioritizing debt repayment over maintaining lower mortgage rates, as evidenced by a case where a homeowner refinanced to pay off $155,000 in consumer debt, resulting in a lower overall monthly payment despite losing a lower mortgage rate [8].

Core Insights - The Trump administration is planning to take new measures to address the housing affordability crisis in the U.S. in the coming weeks [1][3] - The government is considering declaring a national housing emergency this fall to tackle rising home prices and supply shortages [3][4] - The current housing market challenges are significant, with high mortgage rates and increased rental costs affecting potential homebuyers [3] Group 1: Government Actions - The administration is exploring ways to simplify permitting and encourage standardized local building and zoning regulations to boost housing supply [3] - There is a push for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to alleviate the financial burden on the housing market [3][6] Group 2: Homeowner Behavior - A growing number of homeowners are opting for cash-out refinancing to pay off debts, with this type of refinancing accounting for 59% of all refinancing transactions in Q2 [5][6] - The average cash-out refinancing transaction results in homeowners taking on higher mortgage rates, with about 70% of recent cash-out refinancers facing increased rates [7] Group 3: Financial Context - U.S. consumer non-mortgage debt reached a record $5.44 trillion, with significant increases in credit card and auto loan balances [6] - Homeowners are facing negative cash flow situations, prompting them to leverage home equity despite the potential for higher mortgage rates [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is considering declaring a "national housing emergency" to address the housing affordability crisis in the U.S. ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, with a focus on standardizing local building and zoning regulations and reducing housing transfer fees [1][2]. Group 1: Housing Affordability Crisis - The U.S. is facing a significant housing affordability crisis exacerbated by a shortage of housing supply, rising home prices, and high mortgage rates, particularly in California where the median home price exceeds $900,000 [1][2]. - The U.S. Chamber of Commerce reports a current housing supply gap of 4.5 million units, primarily due to long-term supply-demand imbalances [1][2]. Group 2: Contributing Factors - Complex permit applications, outdated zoning regulations, and rising construction material costs are contributing to insufficient housing construction [2]. - Tariffs imposed on trade partners are expected to further increase construction costs, impacting housing affordability [2]. Group 3: Market Trends - As of January this year, the average home price in the U.S. is $355,000, reflecting a 2.7% increase from the previous year, outpacing wage growth [5]. - Mortgage rates are at a 20-year high, discouraging potential first-time homebuyers, while rental prices have surged, with annual increases rising from 3% to 6.5% since the pandemic [5]. - In 2021, over 42 million U.S. households spent more than 30% of their income on housing, an increase of 4.9 million households compared to pre-pandemic levels [5]. Group 4: Political Implications - Addressing housing affordability is a key issue for Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris, who has proposed tax credits for entry-level housing construction and $25,000 subsidies for some homebuyers [5]. - Trump has called for the use of federal land for housing development and criticized the Federal Reserve for not lowering interest rates, which he believes harms the housing market [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is considering declaring a national housing emergency in response to the ongoing housing affordability crisis in the U.S. This move is also seen as a strategy to bolster support for the Republican Party ahead of the midterm elections in 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Housing Crisis Response - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that the government is exploring actions to address the housing affordability crisis, potentially announcing a national emergency in the fall [1]. - The housing market faces significant challenges, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has increased rental costs and mortgage rates, impacting potential homebuyers [1][2]. - The Trump administration has previously used emergency declarations to bypass lengthy legislative processes, suggesting that a national housing emergency could be a tactical move to implement swift actions [1][2]. Group 2: Political Strategy - Housing affordability is defined as a "key pillar" of the Republican Party's campaign agenda for the 2026 midterm elections, with government officials researching ways to standardize local building and zoning regulations and reduce housing transaction costs [2]. - The issue of housing affordability was also a focal point in the 2024 presidential campaign, with promises from candidates to provide tax credits and down payment assistance to homebuyers [2]. - The potential declaration of a housing emergency is viewed as a strategy to attract midterm election voters and address public concerns regarding the housing crisis [2]. Group 3: Trump's Background in Real Estate - President Trump’s extensive background in the real estate industry positions him as knowledgeable about the current housing challenges, having built a career in real estate development since the 1970s [3]. - His experience includes significant projects and a deep understanding of the entire development process, from land acquisition to sales and marketing, along with established connections in various sectors [3].

Core Insights - The U.S. residential construction market is showing a complex picture, with July new housing starts unexpectedly rising by 5.2%, reaching an annualized rate of 1.43 million units, the highest in five months, exceeding economists' expectations [1] Group 1: Housing Starts and Permits - The increase in housing starts is primarily driven by strong performance in multi-family housing, with July multi-family starts rising nearly 10% to an annualized rate of 489,000 units, marking the fastest construction pace of 2023 [3] - Single-family housing starts also saw stable growth, increasing by 2.8% to an annualized rate of 639,000 units [3] - However, building permits, a key indicator of future construction activity, declined by 2.8% in July to an annualized rate of 1.35 million units, the lowest level in five years [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Impact - Builders remain cautious about the market outlook, as many homeowners choose to stay put due to doubled mortgage rates, leading to reduced liquidity in the real estate market [3] - The current market shows a clear divide, with single-family building permits rising for the first time since February, indicating potential moderate recovery, while multi-family permits are declining, reflecting developers' concerns about future demand for apartments and townhouses [3] - The complex dynamics in the residential construction market are expected to significantly impact the overall U.S. economy, as housing starts data is a key indicator for GDP predictions [6] Group 3: Future Outlook - Observers note that the surge in multi-family construction may indicate a deepening housing affordability crisis, as rising home prices and interest rates push more families towards renting or purchasing lower-priced condominiums and townhouses instead of single-family homes [6] - Despite some positive signals from July data, economists warn against overinterpreting single-month figures, as the residential construction market still faces significant challenges, including rising labor costs, land supply constraints, and an uncertain macroeconomic environment [8] - The performance of the U.S. real estate market in the coming months will largely depend on the trajectory of mortgage rates, with potential stabilization or slight declines possibly boosting consumer confidence and stimulating more home-buying activity [8]

Group 1 - The relationship between Wall Street and the Trump administration is evolving, highlighted by JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon's two visits to the White House within two months, focusing on tariffs, regulations, and the housing market [2] - The U.S. GDP grew by 3% in Q2, significantly driven by businesses stockpiling inventory, while a compromise on auto tariffs between the U.S. and Europe could boost Q3 growth by an additional 0.5 percentage points [2] - Private consumption growth has sharply declined to 1.2%, the lowest since 2022, indicating underlying weakness in domestic demand [2] Group 2 - The federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, accounting for 126% of GDP, with the expanding deficit threatening the credibility of the U.S. dollar [2] - Dimon highlighted the housing affordability crisis, noting that high interest rates severely limit lending capacity, with a 29% gap in homeownership rates between Black and White Americans [2] - The potential nomination of either Becerra or Hassett to lead the Federal Reserve could advocate for a weaker dollar policy, which may temporarily boost risk assets but ultimately undermine the dollar's dominance [2] Group 3 - Current gold futures are trading around 769.58 yuan per gram, with a slight decline of 0.46%, and the market is expected to exhibit a short-term oscillating trend [1] - Key resistance levels for gold futures are identified between 794 yuan per gram and 840 yuan per gram, while important support levels are between 766 yuan per gram and 815 yuan per gram [3] - The domestic gold market continues to show a weak trend, with fluctuations observed throughout the week, and the target price for gold is set at 790 yuan per gram [3]

Group 1 - Since 2019, rental prices in Melbourne have increased by AUD 7,800 annually, while wages have stagnated, leading to a severe housing affordability crisis affecting even middle-income groups [1][6] - PropTrack's latest data indicates that rental affordability has reached its lowest level on record, with the average Australian household able to afford only 36% of listed rental properties [3][6] - Young renters are the most impacted, with households aged 15 to 24 able to afford only 19% of available properties, and low-income families earning AUD 70,000 seeing this figure drop to just 2% [6][8] Group 2 - Despite some rental price declines in 126 suburbs and stability in 227 suburbs, renters have not experienced significant relief due to ongoing supply constraints [6][8] - Rental viewings are attracting large crowds, with renters going to great lengths to stand out, indicating a highly competitive rental market [8] - There has been a surge in shared rental applications as renters seek to alleviate financial pressure by sharing costs, which has become a common practice rather than an alternative option [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. housing market has completed a small cycle since 2022, with potential changes expected by 2025 due to macroeconomic shifts. The market is currently in a consolidation phase, awaiting clearer direction. Future investment opportunities are suggested in the upstream and downstream sectors related to second-hand housing, such as real estate agencies and home improvement retail [1][3]. Market Status - The U.S. housing market has been in a "high price, low transaction" state for about two years, with no effective decline in interest rates. The expectation of rate cuts has diminished, increasing the risk of stagflation, which may further distance the market from the hoped-for recovery through lower rates. If future mortgage rates remain high, it could lead to a situation markedly different from the past 40 years of declining rates [3][4]. Asset Price Trends - If the U.S. economy weakens, there may be downward pressure on housing prices. Since 2022, there has been no real price increase, but cumulative real price growth since 2020 exceeds 25%, leading to a "housing affordability crisis." Unlike 2008, the current market has a supply shortage, and the leverage ratios of households and businesses are not excessively high, suggesting limited probability for significant price adjustments [4][5]. Certainties and Uncertainties - The primary certainty lies in the basic supply-demand dynamics, indicating a need for housing replenishment. However, uncertainties stem from policy impacts, such as immigration and tariff policies, which could affect housing costs. The potential for demand-side support policies to address affordability issues is also uncertain. The recovery in transaction volume is expected to occur eventually, but it hinges on price adjustments, with 2025 possibly providing new insights [5][19]. 2024 Market Review - The U.S. housing market in 2024 exhibited a "high price, low transaction" pattern, with new home prices slightly easing and second-hand home prices rising. New home sales totaled 690,000 units, up 3.0% year-on-year, while second-hand home sales were 3.67 million units, down 0.1%. The overall market remains sluggish due to limited effective interest rate reductions and persistent high housing prices, resulting in a slight improvement in affordability indices [6][7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of single-family homes increased by 7% in 2024, while the confidence index among developers remained below the neutral level, indicating caution. Multi-family housing supply reached a historical peak, with strong rental demand. The overall housing inventory remains low, with a months' supply of about 4 months, suggesting a tight supply-demand balance [7][16]. Future Demand and Supply Outlook - Potential pent-up housing demand is estimated between 2.15 million and 4.55 million units. First-time homebuyers are under significant pressure, with their proportion at a record low. The supply of second-hand homes is expected to gradually increase, but the pace may be slow due to the "rate lock" effect, where many existing homeowners are reluctant to sell due to low mortgage rates [14][16]. Investment Opportunities in the Housing Sector - The U.S. housing industry can be segmented into building products, distributors, home improvement retail, developers, and real estate brokers. Current valuations across these sectors are below historical averages, with developers showing the most significant deviation. Short-term profitability for developers may be pressured, but opportunities may arise from fluctuations in interest rates and the gradual recovery of the renovation market linked to second-hand home sales [24][25][27]. Risks and Challenges - Tariff policies pose a significant risk to building products and distributors, potentially increasing construction costs. The real estate brokerage sector may benefit from increased second-hand home supply, but commission uncertainties could limit income growth [28][29].