当地时间1月8日，美股三大指数收盘各自演出不同的小高潮——道指上扬，纳指低回，标普几乎站在原地，市场像个吃了太多火锅的人，嘴还在动，胃已经 开始抗议。能源股一夜狂欢，军工股涨势像被点了火，而英伟达则像被一盆冷水当头泼下，市值一夜蒸发近6900亿元人民币，这场大戏，热闹而残酷。 英伟达失血，科技巨头小幅震荡，存储股普跌，谁也没有例外，这本不是新闻，新闻是——市场对"安全与风险"的偏好正在瞬间转弯；当国际原油跳升，军 工股应声上扬，这不是巧合，而是逻辑在发声。 为何军工股会涨？有人说是军事预算的风向标在变，因为特朗普在社交平台上直言——2027年军事预算应从1万亿美元升到1.5万亿美元，他甚至强调这 是"为了国家的利益"，话语里没有拐弯，只有目标；政客一言，市场便反应，莫非金钱真的比理想更直接地决定未来？ 黄金在2025年录得显著涨幅，12月贵金属的飙升把全年回报推上67%的惊人纪录，世界黄金协会的公告不是花边新闻，而是资本在寻求避险时最直接的脚步 声，市场在告诉我们当不确定增多，资本就会跑向能长期保值的避难所。 设问一句，军费一涨，谁受益？显而易见，防务承包商、军工制造商、与之关联的供应链最先开怀，洛克希德·马 ...

推荐指数：★★★★★ 在全球能源与大宗商品市场波动加剧的背景下，期货交易作为风险管理的重要工具，正被越来越多的企业与投 资者纳入战略布局。从棉花期货的农产品价格锁定，到煤炭期货的能源供应链优化，再到美原油期货与国际原 油期货的跨境套利，期货市场的细分领域正呈现出专业化、全球化的发展趋势。据统计，2025年全球期货市场 日均成交量突破5000万手，其中能源类期货占比达38%，农产品期货占比22%，金属类期货占比15%，金融期货 占比25%。在这一背景下，如何选择一家具备全品类服务能力、风险控制体系完善且行业口碑卓越的期货公 司，成为市场参与者关注的焦点。 期货市场的核心应用场景与技术需求 期货交易的核心价值在于通过标准化合约实现价格发现与风险对冲。以棉花期货为例，我国是全球*大的棉花生 产国与消费国，2025年棉花期货年成交量达1.2亿手，涉及产业链上下游企业超5000家。通过棉花期货，纺织企 业可提前锁定原材料成本，避免价格波动带来的利润侵蚀；贸易商则可通过套利交易获取价差收益。类似地， 煤炭期货作为能源市场的"风向标"，2025年日均成交量突破800万手，其价格波动直接影响电力、钢铁等行业的 生产成本。而美 ...

人民财讯12月10日电，国际原油期货9日收跌。截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所2026年1月交货的轻质原 油期货价格下跌63美分，收于每桶58.25美元，跌幅为1.07%；2月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌 55美分，收于每桶61.94美元，跌幅为0.88%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - International crude oil futures experienced a slight increase on October 3, with both WTI and Brent crude prices rising by approximately 0.66% [1] Price Movements - The price of light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by 40 cents, closing at $60.88 per barrel, reflecting a 0.66% increase [1] - The price of Brent crude oil futures for December delivery increased by 42 cents, closing at $64.53 per barrel, also showing a 0.66% rise [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bearish outlook on the fuel oil industry [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to the expected oversupply in the oil market, the international and domestic crude oil futures prices have been declining, dragging down the high - sulfur fuel oil futures 2510 contract. With the cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the poor supply - demand structure of fuel oil, the contract is expected to remain weak [2][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Impact of Geopolitical Events on Oil Prices - After the US - Russia summit, although no agreement was reached on issues such as a cease - fire in Ukraine, both sides considered the meeting constructive. With more leaders planning to meet, the Russia - Ukraine conflict is expected to cool down, leading to a shrinkage of the international crude oil futures premium. As fuel oil prices are 91.5% correlated with crude oil prices, the cost support for high - sulfur fuel oil futures has weakened [3] Asian Fuel Oil Supply Situation - Since late July, the Asian fuel oil market has been in a state of continuous oversupply. More fuel oil, including that from the Middle East and Russia, is flowing into Asia. The spot spread of Asian high - sulfur fuel oil has fallen to a three - year low, with ample supply and weak downstream demand. The fuel oil arbitrage cargo has been steadily flowing into the Asian market, and the seasonal power generation demand in South Asian countries has not improved the market fundamentals [4] Domestic Fuel Oil Demand Situation - Since mid - August, the weekly wholesale and ex - warehouse volume of domestic marine heavy - fuel oil has decreased by 2.09% (0.15 tons) to 7.04 tons. The overall market demand is weak, with cautious procurement and sales by downstream enterprises, sparse orders, and insufficient market buying sentiment. Only in Shandong, due to the small - scale rigid - demand purchases by some ship suppliers, the ex - warehouse volume has increased [5]

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a PTA daily report dated August 6, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Research Team - The energy and chemical research team includes researchers for different products such as Li Jie for crude oil and fuel, Ren Junchi for PTA and MEG, etc [4] Group 3: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - On August 5, the closing price of the PTA main futures contract TA2509 was 4,682 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton or 0.72%. The settlement price was 4,678 yuan/ton, and the daily position decreased by 12,105 lots. Due to weak cost support, sufficient PTA supply, and low downstream factory procurement intentions for spot goods, PTA prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [6] Group 4: Industry News - OPEC and its eight allied countries agreed to further increase production significantly in September. International oil prices fell for the third consecutive day. On August 4, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 was $66.29 per barrel, down $1.04 or 1.54%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 was $68.76 per barrel, down $0.91 or 1.31% [7] - The PX price in the Chinese market was estimated at $838 - 840 per ton, stable compared to the previous trading day. The PX price in the South Korean market was estimated at $818 - 820 per ton, also stable. The cost support for PX has strengthened slightly, and its supply - demand structure is relatively stable [7] - The PTA price in the East China market was 4,664 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The average daily negotiation basis was at a discount of 14 yuan/ton to the futures 2509 contract, down 2 yuan/ton [7] Group 5: Data Overview - The report provides various data charts including those related to international crude oil futures prices, upstream raw material spot prices, PX prices, MEG prices, PTA prices, PTA processing margins, etc [11][13][17]

Group 1 - US Treasury yields continued to decline significantly due to the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, leading to a drop in international oil prices, which fell over 6% for the second consecutive day [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed concerns about tariffs potentially raising inflation, indicating that if inflation remains controlled, interest rate cuts could occur sooner rather than later [1][2] - The probability of a rate cut in July is currently at 17.1%, while the probability for September exceeds 83% [3] Group 2 - The US consumer confidence index for June dropped to 93, below economists' expectations, reflecting ongoing concerns about the impact of increased import tariffs on the economy [3] - A decline in the short-term expectations index for income, business, and employment markets suggests potential recession signals, as it fell to 69, below the 80 threshold [3] - The previous rebound in consumer confidence was attributed to easing trade tensions, but renewed uncertainty from US economic policies and escalating tensions in the Middle East have dampened optimism [3]

Core Viewpoint - The situation regarding Iran has significantly changed in the past week, with President Trump indicating that military action against Iran is a possibility, but he has not made a final decision yet [1][2][12]. Group 1: Military Action and Negotiations - Trump has approved a plan for potential military action against Iran but has not issued a final command, as he is observing whether Iran will abandon its nuclear program [15]. - He stated that the U.S. is not seeking a ceasefire but aims for a complete victory, specifically that Iran should not possess nuclear weapons [12][15]. - Trump mentioned that Iran has expressed a desire to negotiate, suggesting they may send a delegation to the White House, but he believes it is too late for talks now [4][7]. Group 2: Key Developments and Statements - Trump emphasized that the coming week will be critical in determining the course of events, hinting that significant developments could occur sooner than expected [5]. - He remarked that Iran is no longer the "bully" it once was and lacks defensive capabilities [2]. - Following a statement from Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei that Iran would never surrender, Trump responded with "good luck" and reiterated that U.S. patience has run out [6][7]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Trump's comments about Iran's willingness to negotiate, there was volatility in the oil market, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices initially rising before falling [9][12]. - Despite the fluctuations, the oil market did not experience significant long-term changes after the announcement of Trump's military plans [15].

Market Performance - On June 11, the US stock market opened high but closed lower, with the Nasdaq index down 0.5%, the S&P 500 down 0.27%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 1 point [1] - Intel's stock price fell over 6%, marking its largest single-day decline in two months [1] Commodity Market - International crude oil futures settled up over 4%, with WTI July crude oil futures rising by $3.17, a 4.88% increase, closing at $68.15 per barrel [1] - Brent crude oil for August delivery increased by $2.9, a 4.33% rise, closing at $69.77 per barrel [1] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.9%, priced at $3373.5 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell by 0.76%, priced at $36.365 per ounce [2] Military and Political Developments - Pentagon officials reported that families of US troops stationed in Bahrain can temporarily leave the region, with Defense Secretary authorized voluntary evacuations for military families in the Middle East [3] - Iranian Defense Minister warned of potential attacks on US military bases in the Middle East if negotiations over Iran's nuclear program fail [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that President Trump is intensifying pressure on Iran, aiming to cut off its oil exports completely, which has led to a rise in international crude oil futures prices [1][3] - Trump stated that if Iran does not agree to a deal, the U.S. will push its oil exports down to zero, emphasizing the urgency for Iran to make a choice [1][3] - Following Trump's warning about Iranian oil exports, WTI crude oil prices rose to $63.9, marking a 3.1% increase, while Brent crude reached $66.77, up nearly 2.8% [1] Group 2 - Trump's administration has been pursuing a "maximum economic pressure" strategy against Iran since his first term, aiming to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons by reducing its oil exports to zero [3] - A presidential memorandum signed by Trump on February 4 outlines measures to impose strict sanctions on Iran, including actions against those violating existing sanctions [3] - Trump has warned that any country or individual purchasing oil or petrochemical products from Iran will face U.S. sanctions, emphasizing the need to halt all such transactions immediately [4]