上周五，美俄两国元首在美国阿拉斯加州展开会晤，经过两个小时 40 分钟的会谈后，双方并没有达 成任何的协议，但是都表示这次会晤富有建设性，并且约定下一次在莫斯科继续谈。美俄双方对会晤评价 较为积极，但未就俄乌停火等问题达成协议。随后，德国、法国、英国、意大利、芬兰及北约和欧盟领导 人先后确认，他们将于 18 日前往白宫，同特朗普及泽连斯基举行会晤。从市场所释放的信号来看，尽管 美俄和俄乌依然存在较大分歧，但朝着积极偏乐观的方向发展，未来俄乌冲突的烈度存在降温预期。受此 影响，国际原油期货溢价面临缩水，接下来油市关注点将聚焦于供需结构转向过剩预期，并指引油价走向。 燃料油是石油炼制过程中的产物。据统计，自 2020 年以来，燃料油期货价格与原油期货价格相关性高达 91.5%。在短期原油价格持续回落的拖累下，高硫燃料油期货成本支撑弱化。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 燃料油 维持偏弱走势 宝城期货 陈栋 基于未来油市供应过剩的预期考虑，上周国际能源署和美国能源署纷纷看弱今明两年国际油价。受此 影响，近期国内外原油期货价格呈现震荡回落走势，并拖累高硫燃料油期货 2510 合 ...

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a PTA daily report dated August 6, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Research Team - The energy and chemical research team includes researchers for different products such as Li Jie for crude oil and fuel, Ren Junchi for PTA and MEG, etc [4] Group 3: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - On August 5, the closing price of the PTA main futures contract TA2509 was 4,682 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton or 0.72%. The settlement price was 4,678 yuan/ton, and the daily position decreased by 12,105 lots. Due to weak cost support, sufficient PTA supply, and low downstream factory procurement intentions for spot goods, PTA prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [6] Group 4: Industry News - OPEC and its eight allied countries agreed to further increase production significantly in September. International oil prices fell for the third consecutive day. On August 4, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 was $66.29 per barrel, down $1.04 or 1.54%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 was $68.76 per barrel, down $0.91 or 1.31% [7] - The PX price in the Chinese market was estimated at $838 - 840 per ton, stable compared to the previous trading day. The PX price in the South Korean market was estimated at $818 - 820 per ton, also stable. The cost support for PX has strengthened slightly, and its supply - demand structure is relatively stable [7] - The PTA price in the East China market was 4,664 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The average daily negotiation basis was at a discount of 14 yuan/ton to the futures 2509 contract, down 2 yuan/ton [7] Group 5: Data Overview - The report provides various data charts including those related to international crude oil futures prices, upstream raw material spot prices, PX prices, MEG prices, PTA prices, PTA processing margins, etc [11][13][17]

Group 1 - US Treasury yields continued to decline significantly due to the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, leading to a drop in international oil prices, which fell over 6% for the second consecutive day [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed concerns about tariffs potentially raising inflation, indicating that if inflation remains controlled, interest rate cuts could occur sooner rather than later [1][2] - The probability of a rate cut in July is currently at 17.1%, while the probability for September exceeds 83% [3] Group 2 - The US consumer confidence index for June dropped to 93, below economists' expectations, reflecting ongoing concerns about the impact of increased import tariffs on the economy [3] - A decline in the short-term expectations index for income, business, and employment markets suggests potential recession signals, as it fell to 69, below the 80 threshold [3] - The previous rebound in consumer confidence was attributed to easing trade tensions, but renewed uncertainty from US economic policies and escalating tensions in the Middle East have dampened optimism [3]

Core Viewpoint - The situation regarding Iran has significantly changed in the past week, with President Trump indicating that military action against Iran is a possibility, but he has not made a final decision yet [1][2][12]. Group 1: Military Action and Negotiations - Trump has approved a plan for potential military action against Iran but has not issued a final command, as he is observing whether Iran will abandon its nuclear program [15]. - He stated that the U.S. is not seeking a ceasefire but aims for a complete victory, specifically that Iran should not possess nuclear weapons [12][15]. - Trump mentioned that Iran has expressed a desire to negotiate, suggesting they may send a delegation to the White House, but he believes it is too late for talks now [4][7]. Group 2: Key Developments and Statements - Trump emphasized that the coming week will be critical in determining the course of events, hinting that significant developments could occur sooner than expected [5]. - He remarked that Iran is no longer the "bully" it once was and lacks defensive capabilities [2]. - Following a statement from Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei that Iran would never surrender, Trump responded with "good luck" and reiterated that U.S. patience has run out [6][7]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Trump's comments about Iran's willingness to negotiate, there was volatility in the oil market, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices initially rising before falling [9][12]. - Despite the fluctuations, the oil market did not experience significant long-term changes after the announcement of Trump's military plans [15].

Market Performance - On June 11, the US stock market opened high but closed lower, with the Nasdaq index down 0.5%, the S&P 500 down 0.27%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 1 point [1] - Intel's stock price fell over 6%, marking its largest single-day decline in two months [1] Commodity Market - International crude oil futures settled up over 4%, with WTI July crude oil futures rising by $3.17, a 4.88% increase, closing at $68.15 per barrel [1] - Brent crude oil for August delivery increased by $2.9, a 4.33% rise, closing at $69.77 per barrel [1] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.9%, priced at $3373.5 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell by 0.76%, priced at $36.365 per ounce [2] Military and Political Developments - Pentagon officials reported that families of US troops stationed in Bahrain can temporarily leave the region, with Defense Secretary authorized voluntary evacuations for military families in the Middle East [3] - Iranian Defense Minister warned of potential attacks on US military bases in the Middle East if negotiations over Iran's nuclear program fail [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that President Trump is intensifying pressure on Iran, aiming to cut off its oil exports completely, which has led to a rise in international crude oil futures prices [1][3] - Trump stated that if Iran does not agree to a deal, the U.S. will push its oil exports down to zero, emphasizing the urgency for Iran to make a choice [1][3] - Following Trump's warning about Iranian oil exports, WTI crude oil prices rose to $63.9, marking a 3.1% increase, while Brent crude reached $66.77, up nearly 2.8% [1] Group 2 - Trump's administration has been pursuing a "maximum economic pressure" strategy against Iran since his first term, aiming to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons by reducing its oil exports to zero [3] - A presidential memorandum signed by Trump on February 4 outlines measures to impose strict sanctions on Iran, including actions against those violating existing sanctions [3] - Trump has warned that any country or individual purchasing oil or petrochemical products from Iran will face U.S. sanctions, emphasizing the need to halt all such transactions immediately [4]