投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 2 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 短期恐慌抛售暂缓，去美元化长 期趋势不变 | | 铜 | 2603 | 强势 | 震荡 | 强势 | 长线看强 缩 | 短期恐慌抛售暂缓，国内供应收 | 期货研究报告 品种：铜（CU） 日内观点：强势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold has surged from around $2,000 to approximately $5,000 per ounce since early 2024, reflecting an increase of over 100%, while the actual yield on U.S. Treasury bonds has remained stable around 1.9% [1] Group 1: Changes in Gold Pricing Logic - Traditional analysis suggests a strong negative correlation between actual interest rates and gold prices, where rising rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, thus pressuring its price [1] - The shift in gold's pricing logic is attributed to a fundamental change in its role, transitioning from a tool for hedging inflation to an "absolute value" asset that does not rely on sovereign credit backing [3][6] - The modern monetary theory (MMT) posits that governments issuing their own currency theoretically will never run out of money, but it faces challenges regarding inflation management [4] Group 2: Implications of Persistent Inflation - High inflation can lead to a debt crisis by pushing bond yields higher, which in turn increases borrowing costs for governments, creating a negative feedback loop between inflation and fiscal health [5] - As inflation erodes the purchasing power of currencies like the dollar, trust in these currencies diminishes, prompting investors to seek alternative assets like gold [6] - The investment attributes of gold have shifted from being an inflation hedge to a credit hedge, emphasizing its role as a safe haven when confidence in fiat currencies wanes [6] Group 3: Strategic Considerations for Investors - The significance of gold allocation has changed, with a focus on long-term positioning to hedge against potential declines in currency credit risk rather than short-term trading [7] - The correlation between gold and equities or bonds may evolve, with gold potentially rising alongside risk assets during periods of heightened credit risk [7] - Monitoring signals of dollar credit risk is crucial, as persistent inflation, rising debt pressures, and expanding fiscal deficits will enhance the value of gold as a strategic asset [7]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has surged from around $2000 to approximately $5000 per ounce since the beginning of 2024, reflecting an increase of over 100%, while the actual yield on U.S. Treasury bonds has remained stable around 1.9% [2][12] Group 1: Changes in Gold Pricing Logic - Traditional analysis suggests a strong negative correlation between actual interest rates and gold prices, where rising rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, thus pressuring its price [2][12] - The shift in gold's pricing logic is attributed to a fundamental change in its role from a relative value asset to an absolute value asset, as market confidence in sovereign currencies like the dollar begins to wane [6][17] Group 2: Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) Implications - MMT posits that governments issuing their own currency theoretically will never run out of money or default, with inflation being the primary constraint [6][14] - The optimistic low-inflation assumption of MMT may be challenged as favorable global conditions reverse, potentially leading to higher-than-expected inflation in economies like the U.S. [14] Group 3: Debt Crisis Dynamics - High inflation can lead to a debt crisis through several stages, starting with rising bond yields as investors demand higher nominal returns to compensate for purchasing power loss [7][14] - The relationship between inflation rates and debt yields is critical; when debt yields exceed inflation rates, the actual borrowing cost for governments increases, potentially triggering a self-reinforcing debt cycle [7][14] Group 4: Market Reactions to Currency Credibility - As inflation erodes the purchasing power of currencies like the dollar, market trust in these currencies diminishes, prompting investors to seek alternative assets such as gold [8][15] - Central banks increasing gold purchases indicate a reassessment of currency credibility, while institutional investors adjust their asset allocations in response to perceived currency risks [8][15] Group 5: Gold as a Hedge - The investment property of gold has transformed from an inflation hedge to a credit hedge, focusing on absolute value rather than relative value [17] - Holding gold now serves as a potential risk hedge against declining currency credibility, suggesting a longer investment horizon for gold allocations [9][17] - The correlation between gold and risk assets may change, with gold potentially rising alongside risk assets during periods of increased currency credit risk [9][17]

来源：新浪基金 Ø 黄金行情回顾及主要观点： 金价近期频创历史新高。伦敦现货黄金收于4，981美元/盎司（周环比8.3%），国内AU9999黄金收于 1，110元/克（周环比7.7%）。1月26日亚市早盘，国际现货和期货黄金价格均历史性突破5000美元/盎 司整数关口，为史上首次站上这一关键心理价位。 全球正在经历的传统秩序加速瓦解带来的剧烈阵痛，地缘政治动荡、财政信任危机与全球央行持续 的"去美元化"行动三重动力，共同推动了金价的飙涨。 日本国债的历史性抛售，暴露了全球对债务信用的深层次担忧。日本首相高市早苗上周的财政刺激言 论，引发市场对日本财政可持续性的深度担忧，导致日债遭遇历史性抛售，40年期国债收益率一度突破 4%。其本质是市场对发达经济体"财政主导"政策转向的恐慌。它不仅暴露了日本自身的债务困境，更 通过全球套息交易平仓的链条，将恐慌情绪传染至美债市场，引发全球债市共振。这加剧了投资者对所 有法币主权信用根基的疑虑，黄金的"信用对冲"属性被急剧放大。 全球央行购金趋势延续。在地缘与信用风险发酵的同时，全球央行的行动为黄金提供了坚实的需求侧支 撑和制度性叙事。波兰央行批准了150吨的大规模购金计划， ...

在当前的宽松货币政策环境下，贵金属期货市场呈现出一个长期核心逻辑清晰，但短期多空因素交织的 复杂局面。黄金和白银虽同为贵金属，但其驱动逻辑和市场表现存在显著差异。 为了让你更清晰地把握两者的不同，下面汇总了它们在当前环境下的核心逻辑、市场表现和潜在风险： 黄金 核心逻辑 "去美元化"与信用对冲：央行持续购金、美国债务问题引发的美元信用担忧是其根本驱动 力。 趋势性强：被视为长期趋势行情。机构预测，在央行持续购买和美联储持续宽松的背景下，金价有潜力 继续上涨。 全球央行购金：这是最坚实的长期需求来源。 货币政策预期变化：若美联储放缓降息步伐或美元意外走强，可能抑制金价。 白银 金融与工业属性共振：除跟随黄金的金融属性外，新能源（如光伏）等产业需求提供了额外支撑。 波动性大、弹性强：由于市场规模较小且存在结构性供需缺口，价格上涨时涨幅往往超越黄金。 长期供需失衡：显性库存处于历史低位，远低于安全边界，构成了价格的基本支撑。 短期逼仓风险消退：交割月过后，由空头回补带来的极端上涨动力可能减弱。 日本央行加息：可能引发全球资金回流，造成流动性冲击和短期波动。 未来走势猜想：情景展望 基于以上逻辑，对两种贵金属未来可能 ...