债券收益率下行

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政策宽松,资金价格低位,债市机会仍存
LIANCHU SECURITIES· 2025-07-18 12:22
Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - The bond market yield has been oscillating at a high level and has declined. In 2025, the yields of treasury bonds and policy bank bonds at all tenors have shown a trend of high - level oscillation. The short - end interest rate has risen significantly, while the long - end interest rate has risen slightly, and the spread between the long - end and short - end has narrowed. The prices of treasury bond futures have corrected from high levels [3]. - Affected by multiple factors, the bond market yield has oscillated. In Q1 2025, the central bank tightened the money market in the short term, causing the yields of bonds at all tenors to rise and the prices of treasury bond futures to correct from high levels. Since Q2, due to Trump's tariff policies, the demand for bond - type assets as a hedge has increased, leading to a decline in bond yields and an increase in treasury bond futures prices. The monetary policy remains loose, the capital price has declined, and the bond yield is at a relatively low level [3]. - Looking forward, the bond yield may mainly show an oscillating pattern in the short term and remain in a downward trend in the long term. The macro - economic fundamentals are being repaired, but the repair progress of investment, prices, and profits is still slow. The monetary policy remains loose, the money supply growth rate is expected to increase, and there is still a possibility of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year. The capital price is at a relatively low level. Overall, the bond yield is expected to remain in a downward trend [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market Review: After Tariff Disturbances, Yields Oscillate at Low Levels - **1.1 Bond Yields: Overall in a Downward Trend with Short - Term Oscillations** - After the tariff disturbances, the bond market has mainly oscillated. The 10 - year treasury bond yield has mostly been between 1.6% and 1.7%, and was mostly below 1.65% in June. From the perspective of the term structure, the short - end interest rate has shown a downward trend, the long - end interest rate has oscillated, and the term spread is generally at a low level and has recently increased slightly [12]. - The closing prices of treasury bond futures at different tenors have oscillated at high levels. The prices of 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year treasury bond futures have all shown a downward trend, with the 10 - year showing a steeper slope [3]. - **1.2 Attribution of Bond Market Fluctuations: Liquidity Tightening Pushes Up Yields, Tariff Disturbances Pull Down Yields** - In Q1, the bond yield showed a low - level oscillation and an upward trend, mainly related to the central bank's monetary policy operations. In January, the bond yield was at a relatively low level due to the moderately loose monetary policy. From February to March, the bond yield rose because of the central bank's short - term tight monetary policy [16]. - In Q2, the bond yield decreased rapidly and remained at a low level, related to Trump's tariff shock and the central bank's moderately loose monetary policy. In April, Trump's tariff policy increased the demand for hedging assets such as bonds, pulling down the bond yield. Since mid - April, the bond market has continued to oscillate at a low level, mainly due to the continued loose monetary policy, slow repair of the economic fundamentals, and low capital prices [17]. - **1.3 Bond Market Participants: Institutions Overall Increase Holdings of Interest - Rate Bonds, and Holdings of Credit Bonds Decline** - Financial institutions have overall increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds. Commercial banks, credit unions, insurance companies, securities companies, and overseas institutions have all increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds. For example, in May 2025, commercial banks' holdings of interest - rate bonds reached 73.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.5 trillion yuan compared to the end of 2024 [18]. - Financial institutions' holdings of inter - bank credit bonds have declined. Commercial banks, credit unions, insurance companies, securities companies, and overseas institutions have all reduced their holdings of credit bonds. For example, in May 2025, commercial banks' holdings of credit bonds were 2.586 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 180 billion yuan compared to the end of 2024 [21]. 2. Policy Front: Monetary Policy Remains Moderately Loose, and Structural Policies Continue to Exert Force - **2.1 Monetary Policy Tone: Moderately Loose and Precise and Effective** - The monetary policy tone has been adjusted from prudent to moderately loose. In December 2024, the Central Political Bureau Meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. In 2025, relevant policies have continued to emphasize this tone [33]. - In May 2025, the central bank introduced a structural monetary policy, including reducing the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, providing about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity to the market; adjusting policy interest rates; and implementing a series of measures in terms of quantity, price, and structure to support the real economy [34]. - **2.2 Money Supply: The Growth Rates of M1 and M2 Continue to Increase, and the Financing Demand of the Real Economy Improves** - The M1 growth rate has continued to improve, and the gap between M2 and M1 has decreased. The M2 year - on - year growth rate has been on the rise. The M1 year - on - year growth rate has increased significantly, indicating the continuous repair of the real economy. The decrease in the gap between M2 and M1 indicates the continuous improvement of currency activation [37]. - The social financing increment has improved, and the decline in the difference between M2 and the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock has narrowed. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock has been on the rise, indicating the continuous improvement of the financing demand of the real economy. From the perspective of important sub - items of social financing, RMB loans have increased year - on - year, and government bond financing has continuously supported the performance of social financing [40][45]. - **2.3 Money Price: The Central Bank Cuts Reserve Requirement Ratios and Interest Rates, and Market Liquidity is Abundant** - Policy interest rates are in a downward trend, and the reserve requirement ratio has been cut. The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate, MLF rate, and LPR rate have all been lowered, and the reserve requirement ratios of large, medium, and small financial institutions have been cut [68]. - **2.4 RMB Exchange Rate: Slightly Appreciated, and Expected to Remain Stable in the Future** - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has slightly appreciated but remained stable overall. The Sino - US treasury bond yield spread is at a low level. After the tariff disturbances, the RMB may appreciate slightly, but the exchange rate is expected to remain stable overall [72]. 3. Fundamental Aspects: The Growth Rates of Total Consumption and Exports are Fast, while Investment, Prices, and Profits are Under Pressure - **3.1 Aggregate: GDP Growth Rate is Higher than the Target, Highlighting Growth Resilience** - In 2024, China's GDP achieved a growth rate of 5%. In 2025, the annual growth target is still about 5%. In Q1, the GDP growth rate reached 5.4%, and in Q2, it reached 5.2%. The cumulative growth rate in the first half of the year was 5.3%, and it is expected that the annual growth target will be easily achieved [78]. - **3.2 Production: The Repair Progress is Moderately Fast, but Manufacturing Expectations are Weak** - The growth rate of industrial added value above a designated size has been relatively stable. The PMI has increased marginally but remained below the boom - bust line, indicating that the manufacturing production repair sentiment needs to be improved [81]. - From the perspective of high - frequency data, the year - on - year growth rate of the daily coal consumption of key power plants has been moderately fast. The blast furnace operating rate has been at a low level, indicating that the repair progress of the steel industry and related industries is slow. The operating rates of automobile semi - steel tires and full - steel tires have shown different repair progress, and the operating rates of PTA, PX, UPR, polyester staple fibers, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms have shown different trends, indicating that the chemical and textile industries' repair progress is moderate [83][85][89][95]. - **3.3 Investment: The Growth Rate Declines Marginally, and Real Estate Investment Growth Rate Continues to be Negative** - The overall repair progress of investment is slow. The cumulative growth rate of fixed - asset investment from January to June 2025 was 2.8%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous value. Manufacturing investment has a relatively fast growth rate but is declining marginally. Infrastructure investment growth has decreased. Real estate development investment has continued to be negative, dragging down the investment growth rate [98]. - High - frequency indicators related to real estate investment, such as land transaction area, land premium rate, commercial housing transaction area, second - hand housing listing volume, and second - hand housing listing price index, are all at low levels, indicating that the real estate market may still be in the stage of stopping the decline [103]. - **3.4 Consumption: The Repair Progress is Moderate, and the Growth Rates of Different Industries Show Differentiation** - The overall repair progress of consumption has accelerated. The cumulative growth rate of social retail sales from January to June 2025 was 5%. From the perspective of sub - items of social retail sales, the growth rates of different types of commodity consumption vary greatly. For example, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of automobile consumption has improved, while the growth rate of petroleum and its products has been in a downward trend [123]. - **3.5 Trade: Exports are Less Affected by Tariffs, and Import Growth Rate is Slow** - From January to June, the cumulative year - on - year export growth rate was 5.9%, indicating that China's exports have been less affected by Trump's previous tariff policies. The import growth rate has improved marginally but remained in the negative growth range [136]. - The tariff disturbances are coming to an end, and the capital market is becoming more insensitive to tariffs. After rounds of Sino - US trade consultations, the tariffs on bilateral trade have been significantly reduced [141]. - **3.6 Prices: Consumer Prices Improve but Remain at a Low Level, and Producer Prices are Continuously in Negative Growth** - The CPI growth rate has improved marginally but remained at a low level. In June, the CPI year - on - year growth rate was 0.1%, turning positive from negative. Many food price indices are at low levels, indicating that the rebound of consumer prices is under pressure [143]. - The producer price index has continued to be negative. In June, the PPI year - on - year growth rate was - 3.6%, remaining in the negative growth range for 33 consecutive months. Many production - related price indices are in a downward trend, indicating that the repair of the production - end price index is under pressure [153]. - **3.7 Profits: Fall into Negative Growth, and the Growth Rate of Finished Goods Inventory Declines** - The growth rate of industrial enterprise profits has declined marginally and fallen into negative growth. The PPI year - on - year growth rate, which is highly related to price factors, has been continuously in negative growth, dragging down the performance of industrial enterprise profits [167]. - The cost and expenses per 100 yuan of operating income of industrial enterprises are at a high level, the asset - liability ratio has declined from a high level, and the year - on - year growth rate of finished goods inventory is at a low level [170]. 4. Capital Aspects: Prices have Fallen from High Levels, and Liquidity is Abundant - **4.1 Capital Price: At a Relatively Low Level, and Liquidity Continues to be Loose** - Capital prices are at a low level and in a downward trend. The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate, DR007, and R007 are all at relatively low levels, indicating that the capital market is abundant [176]. - **4.2 Deposit - Loan Difference: Reaching New Highs Continuously, and Deposit Growth Rate is Rebounding** - The deposit - loan difference of financial institutions has reached new highs continuously. The year - on - year deposit growth rate has rebounded, while the year - on - year loan growth rate has declined. The excess reserve ratio of financial institutions has declined marginally, indicating that the liquidity among financial institutions is abundant [178]. - **4.3 Inter - Bank Certificates of Deposit: Capital Prices are Low, and Certificate Yields are in a Downward Trend** - The yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit have rebounded recently but are in a long - term downward trend. The yields of AAA - rated 1 - year and 1 - month inter - bank certificates of deposit are in a downward trend. The spread between the 1 - month and 1 - year yields has been compressed and even inverted [181]. 5. Supply Aspects: Fiscal Policy is Exerting Force at a Moderate Pace, and Bond Net Financing is at a High Level - **5.1 Fiscal Policy Tone: More Active and Continuously Exerting Force** - The fiscal policy tone is more active. In December 2024, relevant meetings proposed to implement a more active fiscal policy. In 2025, the "Government Work Report" made clear arrangements for the deficit ratio, special treasury bonds, and local government special bonds. The cumulative new government debt scale in 2025 is 11.86 trillion yuan [185]. - **5.2 Fiscal Exertion: Large Space and Moderate Pace** - The general public budget expenditure progress is moderate, the issuance progress of treasury bonds is relatively fast, special treasury bonds have been issued, and there is still a large space for ultra - long - term special treasury bonds. The issuance progress of local government bonds is moderate. It is expected that the fiscal exertion progress will accelerate in the second half of the year, and the issuance progress of local government special bonds will speed up [6]. - **5.3 Bond Market Supply: Net Increase is Generally at a High Level, and the Rhythm is Stable** - In the first half of the year, the monthly net increase in bond issuance was at a high level in the same period, and interest - rate bonds were the main driving factor for the net increase in bonds. The weekly issuance rhythm of bonds is stable [6].
中金6月数说资产
中金点睛· 2025-06-17 00:06
Core Viewpoint - The overall economic growth in May remains stable, but the structure shows signs of divergence, with retail growth accelerating due to external factors, while fixed asset investment and real estate sales continue to weaken [1][8]. Macro - External factors support retail growth, with tariff reductions not fully reflected in May data, leading to a slight decline in industrial value-added growth to 5.8% year-on-year [2][8]. - May's industrial value-added growth slowed to 5.8% from 6.1% in April, with manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing also experiencing declines [2]. - Retail sales in May increased by 6.4% year-on-year, the highest growth rate in 2024, driven by trade-in policies and early promotions [3][8]. - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 3.7% in the first five months, with declines in manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments [4][5]. - Real estate sales continue to weaken, with a 3.3% year-on-year decline in sales area and a 6.0% decline in sales value in May [6][24]. Strategy - The economic data for May indicates a need for further policy support to stimulate demand, with a focus on stable recovery in the second half of the year [8][20]. - Investment strategies should focus on sectors with strong dividend yields and growth potential, particularly in mergers and acquisitions, artificial intelligence, and consumer sectors [8]. Real Estate - The real estate market shows continued weakness, with new housing sales declining and investment pressures persisting [24][25]. - The government is expected to enhance policy measures to stabilize the real estate market and stimulate demand [24][25].
每日债市速递 | 银行间市场资金面继续向宽
Wind万得· 2025-04-02 22:45
Group 1: Market Overview - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 229.9 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.50%, with a net withdrawal of 225.5 billion yuan on that day [1][3] - Despite the central bank's continuous net withdrawal, the interbank market remained loose at the beginning of the month, with the overnight repo weighted average rate falling about 9 basis points to below 1.8% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the US is 4.41% [4] Group 2: Interest Rates and Bonds - The one-year interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) traded around 1.86%, down from approximately 1.90% the previous day [6] - Major interest rate bonds in the interbank market saw collective yield declines, with the 1-year government bond yield at 1.5875%, down 0.25 basis points, and the 10-year yield at 1.9940%, down 3.60 basis points [8] - Government bond futures closed collectively higher, with the 30-year main contract up 0.86% [11] Group 3: Policy and Development - The State Council issued opinions on improving price governance mechanisms, emphasizing the need for macroeconomic policy coordination to enhance price level control effectiveness [12] - A meeting was held in Chongqing to discuss the high-quality development of the bond market, aiming to support local enterprises in issuing various innovative bonds [13] Group 4: Global Macro Trends - Goldman Sachs revised its forecast for the 10-year Japanese government bond yield at the end of 2025 from 1.60% to 1.50%, reflecting increased risks of a US economic recession [15] Group 5: Bond Market Events - Fuzhou City is promoting policy guarantee companies to provide credit enhancement for private enterprises issuing bonds [17] - The Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps plans to issue 12.80922 billion yuan in local bonds in the second quarter [17] - The 10-year benchmark government bond yield in India has fallen to its lowest level since January 7, 2022 [17]