金ETF(159834)，场外联接(A类：018391；C类：018392；I类：021004)。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 平安证券指出，黄金价格震荡上行。长期来看美国债务问题未解，美元信用走弱的主线逻辑持续，央行 购金以及黄金投资需求增长，贵金属价格重心或继续抬升。海外宏观不确定性持续，中期黄金避险属性 仍处于放大阶段。长期来看特朗普上任后，美元信用走弱的主线逻辑愈加清晰，黄金货币属性加速凸 显，持续看好黄金中长期走势。 金ETF(159834)密切跟踪上海黄金交易所黄金现货实盘合约价格，透明度高而且流动性好，支持T+0日 内交易。 截至2026年1月21日 10:33，金ETF南方(159834)上涨2.62%，冲击3连涨，盘中换手6.5%，成交9869.31万 元。 1月21日，亚洲市场早盘，国际金价延续近期强势表现，多头情绪高涨。现货黄金在早盘时段出现一波 快速拉升，价格一举突破4840美元关口，达4844.241美元/盎司，刷新历史最高纪录。与此同时， COMEX黄金期货同步走强，盘中最高触及4847.7美元/盎司，同样创下历史新高。在多重利好因素共振 下，国际金价呈现加速上行态势， ...

中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF（517400）。 华西证券指出，地缘冲突加剧，长期不确定性支撑贵金属价格。本周美军对委内瑞拉的打击引发避险情 绪，短期金价波动有限，但需警惕局势升级风险。长期来看，全球"去美元化"趋势加速，央行和投资者 持续购金，黄金受益于债务和货币宽松的交易方向。美国债务总额突破38.5万亿美元，财政赤字高企， 降息趋势下国债利率上涨，体现对债务规模的担忧，看好未来黄金价格。白银方面，ETF资金强劲流 入，全球现货库存紧张，甚至出现交割困难，尽管需求回落，但供应端缺口突出，预计未来几年供需缺 口将持续扩大。宽松周期下工业复苏需求使得白银弹性高于黄金，看好未来白银价格。基本金属方面， 铜作为能源转型关键金属，供给端全球主要矿山事故频发，预计2025Q4供给减少20万吨产量，宏观环 境支撑铜价。铝价方面，铜铝比失调，国内电解铝供给刚性，AI领域爆发式增长占据电力优先级，供 应端扰动待落地，看好铝价补涨。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, leading to long-term uncertainty that supports gold prices. Recent military actions by the US against Venezuela have heightened risk aversion, impacting the precious metals market [1][50] - The macroeconomic environment remains accommodative with expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is likely to benefit gold and silver prices in the long run [3][22] - The supply-demand dynamics for silver are strong, with significant inflows into ETFs and tight global inventories, suggesting a bullish outlook for silver prices [6][23] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX gold fell 4.82% to $4,341.90 per ounce, while silver dropped 9.30% to $72.27 per ounce. SHFE gold decreased 3.81% to ¥977.56 per gram, and silver fell 6.80% to ¥17,074.00 per kilogram [1][34] - The gold-silver ratio increased by 4.93% to 60.08, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1][34] - SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 193,093.29 ounces, while SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 1,722,502.60 ounces, reflecting changing investor sentiment [1][34] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper rose 2.70% to $12,460.50 per ton, aluminum increased 2.18% to $3,021.00 per ton, and zinc went up 1.31% to $3,127.00 per ton. SHFE copper fell 0.49% to ¥98,240.00 per ton, while aluminum and zinc saw increases [7][12] - The macroeconomic sentiment is positive, with expectations of increased fiscal spending in China to stimulate consumption and stabilize employment, which supports copper prices [8][12] - Supply-side risks are evident, with major mining companies reducing copper production forecasts due to operational challenges, which may tighten supply further [9][12] Small Metals - Magnesium prices remain stable at ¥17,210 per ton, with demand primarily driven by essential purchases amid a seasonal slowdown [19] - Molybdenum prices have increased due to strong demand from the steel sector, while vanadium prices are under pressure despite some positive signals from the storage sector [20][24]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Views - The dovish remarks from Powell have increased expectations for a rate cut in September, benefiting the prices of precious and base metals [3][41] - The market is beginning to price in the likelihood of a rate cut, with a significant increase in the probability of a September cut to 91.1% following Powell's comments [3][41] - Long-term concerns regarding global monetary policy and debt are expected to support gold prices, with the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" act projected to increase the US fiscal deficit by $3.4 trillion [3][15] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 1.05% to $3,417.20 per ounce, while silver rose by 2.26% to $38.88 per ounce [1][24] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 276,237.73 troy ounces, while SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 6,992,897.80 ounces [24] - The gold-silver ratio fell by 1.19% to 87.89, indicating a potential recovery in silver prices due to increased industrial demand [1][43] Base Metals - Copper prices rose by 0.37% to $9,796.50 per ton on the LME, while aluminum increased by 0.73% to $2,622.00 per ton [6][48] - Supply disruptions from overseas mines continue to tighten raw material availability, with Peru's copper production increasing by 7.1% year-on-year [7][68] - The market anticipates a cautious improvement in consumption as the traditional peak season approaches [7][70] Small Metals - Magnesium prices remain stable at 18,920 yuan per ton, with tight inventory levels among producers [81] - Molybdenum prices have shown positive trends, with molybdenum iron prices rising by 3.60% to 287,500 yuan per ton [14][82] - The demand for molybdenum is expected to remain strong, supported by tight supply conditions [14][82]