中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF（517400）。 华西证券指出，地缘冲突加剧，长期不确定性支撑贵金属价格。本周美军对委内瑞拉的打击引发避险情 绪，短期金价波动有限，但需警惕局势升级风险。长期来看，全球"去美元化"趋势加速，央行和投资者 持续购金，黄金受益于债务和货币宽松的交易方向。美国债务总额突破38.5万亿美元，财政赤字高企， 降息趋势下国债利率上涨，体现对债务规模的担忧，看好未来黄金价格。白银方面，ETF资金强劲流 入，全球现货库存紧张，甚至出现交割困难，尽管需求回落，但供应端缺口突出，预计未来几年供需缺 口将持续扩大。宽松周期下工业复苏需求使得白银弹性高于黄金，看好未来白银价格。基本金属方面， 铜作为能源转型关键金属，供给端全球主要矿山事故频发，预计2025Q4供给减少20万吨产量，宏观环 境支撑铜价。铝价方面，铜铝比失调，国内电解铝供给刚性，AI领域爆发式增长占据电力优先级，供 应端扰动待落地，看好铝价补涨。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 4 日 [Table_Title] 地缘冲突加剧，长期不确定性支撑贵金属价格 [Table_Title2] 有色-基本金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►贵金属：地缘冲突加剧，长期不确定性支撑金价 本周 COMEX 黄金下跌 4.82%至 4,341.90 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银下跌 9.30%至 72.27 美元/盎司。SHFE 黄金下跌 3.81%至 977.56 元/克，SHFE 白银下跌 6.80%至 17,074.00 元/ 千克。 本周金银比上涨 4.93%至 60.08。本周 SPDR 黄金 ETF 持 仓减少 193,093.29 金衡盎 司，SLV 白银 ETF 持仓 增加 1,722,502.60 盎司。 周一，美国 11 月成屋签约销售指数月率 3.3%，预期 1%，前值 1.90%。美国 12 月达拉斯联储商业活动指数 - 10.9，预期-6，前值-10.4。 本周美国总统特朗普宣布美军对委内瑞拉实施大规模军事 打击，委内瑞拉政府随即回应称美方意图夺取其石油与矿产资 源，这场突发 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Views - The dovish remarks from Powell have increased expectations for a rate cut in September, benefiting the prices of precious and base metals [3][41] - The market is beginning to price in the likelihood of a rate cut, with a significant increase in the probability of a September cut to 91.1% following Powell's comments [3][41] - Long-term concerns regarding global monetary policy and debt are expected to support gold prices, with the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" act projected to increase the US fiscal deficit by $3.4 trillion [3][15] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 1.05% to $3,417.20 per ounce, while silver rose by 2.26% to $38.88 per ounce [1][24] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 276,237.73 troy ounces, while SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 6,992,897.80 ounces [24] - The gold-silver ratio fell by 1.19% to 87.89, indicating a potential recovery in silver prices due to increased industrial demand [1][43] Base Metals - Copper prices rose by 0.37% to $9,796.50 per ton on the LME, while aluminum increased by 0.73% to $2,622.00 per ton [6][48] - Supply disruptions from overseas mines continue to tighten raw material availability, with Peru's copper production increasing by 7.1% year-on-year [7][68] - The market anticipates a cautious improvement in consumption as the traditional peak season approaches [7][70] Small Metals - Magnesium prices remain stable at 18,920 yuan per ton, with tight inventory levels among producers [81] - Molybdenum prices have shown positive trends, with molybdenum iron prices rising by 3.60% to 287,500 yuan per ton [14][82] - The demand for molybdenum is expected to remain strong, supported by tight supply conditions [14][82]