Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market has started strong in Q4, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3900 points, indicating potential opportunities for investment, particularly in technology growth sectors and high-dividend blue-chip stocks [1] Group 2 - The public fund industry believes that the attractiveness of stock assets has significantly increased, but a sustainable "slow bull" market requires fundamental support [2] - There is a consensus among public funds that despite the need for fundamental backing, there are still opportunities to go long in the market [3] Group 3 - The current environment shows that the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are becoming increasingly valuable in global asset allocation, likely attracting more long-term capital [4] Group 4 - Investment strategies for Q4 should focus on technology growth and high-dividend blue-chip stocks, with an emphasis on sectors like banking, public utilities, and transportation, which offer stable earnings and low valuations [5][6] - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to see structural investment opportunities due to liquidity release from the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, benefiting innovative drugs and their supply chains [6] Group 5 - The gold and precious metals sector is viewed positively, with macroeconomic factors providing solid support for gold prices, driven by global fiscal expansion and central banks diversifying their reserve assets [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that methanol is in a low - level oscillation, and investors should wait for opportunities to go long. Methanol's valuation is neutral. Although the upstream coal - based profit is still high, the coastal profit has rebounded to a high level, and the price of methanol in East China is relatively undervalued compared to downstream, with limited further downward space. In the short term, the upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory and insufficient restocking motivation of MTO enterprises. However, considering the low spot price in East China and the approaching traditional downstream peak season, there may be opportunities to go long in the future [5][41]. - The recommended strategy is to wait and see for now and wait for opportunities to go long [5][42]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - From August 18th to August 29th, methanol prices oscillated downward. After the weakening of the "anti - involution" sentiment in coking coal, methanol returned to a weak fundamental situation. The increase in supply from inland coal - to - methanol enterprises and imported methanol led to price downward pressure [5][10][41]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - With the increasing import pressure, the spot is relatively weak. The East China spot basis has weakened, and the near - month futures contracts have also weakened. On August 18th, the East China basis was - 106 yuan/ton, and on August 29th, it was - 151 yuan/ton. The 01 - 05 spread was 18 yuan/ton on August 18th and - 11 yuan/ton on August 29th [11]. 3.3 Supply - side Analysis - **Cost and Production**: Coal - to - methanol profits are still high. Although the weekly coal - to - methanol production rate decreased slightly, it is still at a high level year - on - year. Most maintenance devices are expected to restart in September, so the upstream production is expected to gradually increase. As of August 28th, the weekly coal - to - methanol production rate was 77.61%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 1.07 percentage points year - on - year; the weekly gas - to - methanol production rate was 50.79%, unchanged month - on - month and a decrease of 4.52 percentage points year - on - year [13]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory accumulation rate continues to accelerate. As of the week of August 28th, the total port inventory was 106.6 tons, an increase of 13.18 tons month - on - month and 16.52 tons year - on - year. The inventory in the Northwest region also increased slightly [20]. 3.4 Demand - side Analysis - **MTO Demand**: The profit of methanol - to - olefins (MTO) has improved, and the MTO production rate remains relatively high. As of August 28th, the weekly production rate of downstream methanol - to - olefins was 82.24%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points month - on - month and a decrease of 0.25 percentage points year - on - year; the weekly production rate of enterprises that purchase methanol externally was 78.56%, an increase of 1.64 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 2.76 percentage points year - on - year. However, MTO enterprises have a high inventory of methanol raw materials, so the demand for restocking is low, and the upward driving force for methanol is insufficient [24]. - **Traditional Demand**: The traditional downstream of methanol includes acetic acid, MTBE, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether. Although the production of some traditional downstream industries decreased last week, the downstream profit has improved marginally. The peak season from September to October may boost the demand for methanol [31].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report is bullish on the subsequent glass market and suggests a low - buying strategy for glass futures [3][4]. - It expects the A - share market to continue high - level volatile upward movement this week [7]. - It believes that gold will have short - term platform - style small - amplitude oscillations, and the probability of a September interest rate cut by the Fed is increasing, which is beneficial to gold [11][12]. - It indicates that iron ore will have a significant rebound, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [16]. - It suggests a bearish and volatile view on palm oil due to high inventory pressure and lack of demand [24]. - It holds that pulp will maintain bottom - level oscillations in the short term, and investors should pay attention to the 5000 support level for potential long - positions and the Fed's interest - rate decision in September [27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures - The current decline in glass futures 2601 price may present a buying opportunity. The price is close to the production cost in the Shahe area, and enterprises may take measures to support the price. Technically, there is a possibility of a rebound [4]. - The daily melting is basically stable, factory inventories continue to accumulate, and the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation near the peak season. Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [20][21] A - share Market - The trading volume of the A - share market has exceeded 3 trillion, setting a new record for the year. Shanghai has issued the "Shanghai Six Measures" to adjust the purchase restrictions. It is expected that the market will continue high - level volatile upward movement this week [7] Gold - After the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting, the Fed Chairman released positive signals, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is beneficial to gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it will have short - term platform - style small - amplitude oscillations [11][12] Iron Ore - With the improvement of steel mill profitability, the molten iron output remains at a high level, and the overall fundamental support is strong. Affected by the strengthening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, non - US assets are favored. Technically, it has a strong rally today, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [16][17] Palm Oil - The recent cumulative increase in the oil and fat market is large. With the overall increase in inventory pressure and lack of demand, the market's motivation to chase higher prices has declined, and the profit - taking pressure has increased. It should be treated with a bearish and volatile view [24] Pulp - Constrained by high port inventories, the transmission of factors such as the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, overseas production cuts, and price increases is not smooth, and the upward space is limited. It will maintain bottom - level oscillations in the short term. Attention should be paid to the 5000 support level for potential long - positions and the Fed's interest - rate decision in September [27]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting trends in the prices of coking coal and iron ore, highlighting the reasons behind the rising coking coal prices and the declining iron ore prices, while questioning the future investment opportunities in iron ore amidst market disruptions caused by "anti-involution" factors [1] Group 1: Coking Coal Market - Coking coal prices are continuously rising, indicating strong demand and potential supply constraints in the market [1] - The increase in coking coal prices may be driven by factors such as production cuts or increased demand from steel manufacturers [1] Group 2: Iron Ore Market - Iron ore prices have declined for two consecutive days, suggesting a bearish sentiment in the market [1] - The article raises concerns about the future of iron ore investments, questioning whether there are still opportunities to go long on iron ore given the current market conditions [1]