以下文章来源于大猫财经Pro ，作者大猫财经猫哥 大猫财经Pro . 看懂大趋势、小案例、一起搞钱 ------------------------------ 作者：史大郎&猫哥 来源：是史大郎&大猫财经Pro 01 宝万之争10年之后，主角们的日子都不太好过。 "野蛮人"宝能和姚振华，日子更难些。 这两天，有银行发公告说，宝能旗下的深业物流要在 10天内偿还73.8亿 的借款，宝能以及姚振华 承担连带责任，如果没钱，可能就要处置抵押的土地和建筑物了。 这笔债，已经逾期4年了。 2018年，这家银行深圳分行向深业物流贷款合计78亿，结果2021年该还的时候，贷款违约了，本 金统共只还了4亿多，剩下的70多亿，成了不良。 曾经，这家银行和姚老板的关系，也曾非常紧密。 2020年的时候，曾经有上海本地老板举报这家银行行长，指控很凶猛， 说他勾结宝能侵吞200多 亿优质资产、向宝能违规放贷120亿。 事情闹很大，举报的老板删文，而银行和宝能辟谣。 不过，1年之后，就有部分贷款违约了。 不过10天之内，姚老板肯定拿不出这些钱来，毕竟，宝能负债2000多亿，而现在的被执行金额已 经484亿，还有250亿因没钱终结执行 ...

| 年份 | 收益 | 浄值 | 本金 | 年化收益 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2013 | -8% | 0. 92 | 11 | -8% | | 2014 | 31% | 1.21 | 18. 5 | 10% | | 2015 | 52% | 1.83 | 31 | 22% | | 2016 | 34% | 2. 45 | 40. 6 | 25% | | 2017 | 116% | 5. 30 | 130 | 40% | | 2018 | -50% | 2. 65 | 65. 5 | 18% | | 2019 | 90% | 5.04 | 124 | 26% | | 2020 | 35% | 6. 80 | 168 | 27% | | 2021 | 71% | 11. 63 | 289 | 31% | | 2022 | -29% | 8. 26 | 205 | 24% | | 2023 | -43% | 4.71 | 117 | 15% | | 2024 | 85% | 8.71 | 217 | 20% | | 2025 | 56% | 13. 58 | 340 ...

本次 12 月会议纪要还提及，美联储官员就'如何精准锚定金融体系合意准备金规模'展开讨论。部分委 员指出，考虑到准备金需求可能出现变动，紧盯货币市场利率与准备金余额利率的利差水平，而非设定 具体的准备金规模阈值，是更优选择。 美联储决策者强调，此类购债操作仅为准备金管理工具，与美联储整体货币政策及经济刺激举措毫无关 联。 会议纪要显示，此次决策的背景是，部分参会委员发现，当前货币市场利率相对于美联储管理利率的上 行速度，已快于 2017-2019 年美联储缩表期间的水平。 本月初，美联储已停止缩表（即量化紧缩）进程 —— 此前规模达 12.6 万亿美元的回购市场已显现流动 性承压迹象。自今夏以来，美国国库券发行规模大幅增加，叠加量化紧缩政策，持续从货币市场抽离资 金，耗尽美联储核心流动性工具，推高短期市场利率。 市场担忧，若流动性严重不足，将扰乱金融市场核心清算体系，削弱美联储对利率政策的调控能力；极 端情况下，还可能引发市场平仓潮，并蔓延至全球融资利率基准的美国国债整体市场。 美联储一项调查的受访者预计，为缓解货币市场压力，美联储未来 12 个月的准备金管理购债规模总计 将超 2000 亿美元。 美联储决策 ...

发展详情 手握7600万理财资金，偏偏把近80%（6000万）砸进一只私募产品，结果短短一个月内从浮亏不足10%，骤变成亏损超81%，4692万本金蒸发。更离奇的 是，亏损后冒出来的"兜底自然人"只付了200万就没了下文，而涉事私募的备案信息停更7年、核心人员背景存疑……这一连串操作，实在让人看不懂。 先把时间线理清楚，看看这6000万是怎么"快速蒸发"的： 2025年3月，圣元环保全资子公司厦门金陵基，用闲置自有资金认购了一款名为"深博宏图成长1号"的私募产品，认购本金6000万，而且是这只基金的唯一 投资者（专户产品）。 在接下来的大半年里，一切看似风平浪静。圣元环保说，3月到12月案发前，一直正常收到基金管理人的净值资料，没发现任何异常。截至12月4日，这只 基金的单位净值还有0.9215元，亏损不足10%，属于可接受的波动范围。 转折点发生在12月9日。圣元环保跟基金管理人沟通，计划赎回全部份额。没想到三天后收到的净值表，直接让管理层"如坠冰窟"——12月11日，基金净 值骤降至0.2596元，一周时间亏了74%！到12月25日，累计净值增长率更是跌到-81.54%，对应亏损金额约4692万元，已经超 ...

财富的底层逻辑，本质是认知的博弈。当多数人还在用勤奋兑换收入时，真正的破局者早已完成认知升维，构建起系统性的财富增长框架。 4 1. 别被"努力致富"的鸡汤灌晕了： 我们听过太多"只要努力就能成功"的励志故事，但现实是：工地上的工人比写字楼里的白领更辛苦，却未必更富有。 努力是财富的必要条件，但绝非充分条件。就像农民种地，若不懂节气、不辨土壤，再勤劳的汗水也换不来丰收。 2. 看清"时间陷阱"的真相： 普通人常陷入"用时间换钱"的陷阱：加班、兼职、熬夜，把生命切割成廉价工时。但真正的财富高手，早已跳出了"时间=金 钱"的等式，转而思考如何让时间增值、让钱为自己工作。这种认知的跃迁，才是破局的关键。 3. 重构财富坐标系 ：财富不是一条单行线，而是一个多维坐标系。除了拼命赚钱，更要学会管钱、投资钱、让钱生钱。当你同时掌握"开源""节流""投 资"三把钥匙，财富之门才会真正向你敞开。 1. 认知杠杆：用知识穿透迷雾 财富增长的第一阻力是认知盲区。不懂复利原理，你就不会明白"小本金+长时间"如何滚成大雪球；不懂资产与负债的区 别，你可能把房贷车贷当成"资产"。升级认知，就像给财富增长装上导航仪，让你在复杂市场中不迷 ...

核心要点 目前已有数百只交易所交易基金（ETF）面世，这类产品能让投资者放大对某一家公司股票涨跌的押 注。 晨星基金研究分析师扎卡里・埃文斯表示，截至 12 月 9 日，单只股票 ETF 这一品类在美国市场已拥有 约 377 只产品，其中 276 只是 2025 年新推出的。 埃文斯称，这类基金能让投资者接触到英伟达、特斯拉、苹果或亚马逊等部分 "最具热度、规模最大的 科技公司"。 但他也指出，这类基金同时存在 "押注失误的重大风险"。 投资单只个股只能获得一次性的持仓敞口，而单只股票 ETF 则主打放大单一股票涨跌押注的策略，其 手段可能包括掉期、期货及其他衍生品。 杠杆型单只股票 ETF 宣传可实现更高的短期收益。例如，若某只股票上涨 2%，这类 ETF 可能带来 4% 的收益，具体倍数取决于其产品策略。 埃文斯表示："它们的累计资金流入其实超过了当前的管理资产规模。整体来看，这类产品的业绩表现 欠佳，许多投资者的投资体验很可能也不尽如人意。" 埃文斯指出，单只股票 ETF 市场呈现 "头部集中" 的格局：仅有 7 只基金的管理资产规模各自超过 10 亿美元，而 303 只基金的规模均不足 1 亿美元，值 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chongqing Securities Regulatory Bureau has issued a stern statement clarifying that "Yongyuan Securities" is not conducting any margin trading business in Chongqing, warning citizens about potential scams related to "leveraged investment secrets" [1] Group 1: Characteristics of the Scam - "Yongyuan Securities" exhibits common characteristics of a virtual trading platform, including exaggerated promotional language, promises of high returns with low risk, and aggressive marketing through social media and messaging platforms [3] - The scam often involves the use of forged or altered business licenses and regulatory documents to create a false sense of authority [3] - The trading software used is typically cloned or self-made, not from legitimate brokerage systems [3] Group 2: Scam Process - The typical scam process begins with enticing offers such as high bonuses and "leveraged secrets" to lure individuals into opening accounts and depositing funds [3] - Once investors are engaged, they are encouraged to frequently increase their investments through strategies pushed by so-called "trading experts" [3] - When investors attempt to withdraw their funds, they face various excuses and demands for additional payments, ultimately leading to the loss of their investments [3] Group 3: Identification and Verification - Investors are advised to verify the qualifications and business licenses of brokers through official channels such as the China Securities Regulatory Commission and local regulatory bodies [3] - It is crucial to cross-check business licenses and operational scopes against publicly available information, especially if the broker only offers online services or requires third-party payment methods [3] - Caution is advised against downloading unknown trading software, with a recommendation to verify through official websites and customer service [3] Group 4: Emergency Measures - In case of falling victim to such scams, immediate actions include halting further transfers, preserving all transaction records, and reporting to local regulatory authorities and law enforcement [4] - Seeking legal assistance is also recommended if necessary [4] Group 5: Advice for Friends and Family - Individuals should be cautious of claims regarding "internal secrets," "trading software," and "high-frequency arbitrage," as any promise of zero risk and high returns is suspect [4] - It is advised to prioritize brokers that are registered with the regulatory commission and possess legitimate licenses and physical locations [4] Group 6: Regulatory and Social Responsibility - Regulatory authorities are actively combating illegal securities and futures activities, urging investors to stay informed through official announcements [4] - There is a call for community vigilance, encouraging individuals to report suspicious platforms to foster a healthier investment environment [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolution of Bitcoin reserves among companies, particularly focusing on MicroStrategy's aggressive investment strategy since 2020, which has influenced other companies to follow suit [1][2][4][5][10] Group 1: MicroStrategy's Investment Strategy - MicroStrategy began purchasing Bitcoin in August 2020, initially acquiring approximately 21,454 BTC for $250 million, followed by another purchase of 16,796 BTC for $175 million, totaling over 38,000 BTC by the end of 2020 [1] - By the end of 2021, MicroStrategy's Bitcoin reserves had grown to 105,000 BTC, with significant purchases funded through various debt instruments, including a $1.05 billion zero-coupon bond [2] - In 2025, MicroStrategy's holdings reached 649,870 BTC, with an average purchase price of $66,385, reflecting a total investment of $33 billion [5] Group 2: Market Trends and Company Responses - The Bitcoin market experienced significant volatility, with prices dropping below $20,000 in 2022, yet MicroStrategy continued to accumulate Bitcoin, albeit at a slower pace [4] - By 2023, as the market recovered, MicroStrategy's strategy involved smaller, more cautious purchases, resulting in a total of over 130,000 BTC acquired that year [4] - Other companies, such as Metaplanet and Semler Scientific, began to enter the Bitcoin market, with Metaplanet purchasing hundreds of BTC and Semler acquiring 581 BTC for $40 million [4][10] Group 3: Financing and Leverage - The financing strategy employed by MicroStrategy involved leveraging debt to purchase Bitcoin, which allowed the company to increase its market capitalization as Bitcoin prices rose, creating a cycle of investment and growth [8] - The use of zero-coupon bonds and convertible debt has been a key aspect of MicroStrategy's approach, allowing for potential equity conversion without immediate cash outflow [2][8] - However, this strategy carries inherent risks, as a decline in Bitcoin prices could lead to significant financial strain due to the accumulated debt [8][10] Group 4: Industry Impact and Future Outlook - The trend of companies investing in Bitcoin has gained momentum, with over 172 companies reported to have entered the market by 2025, raising $12.5 billion in financing [7][10] - The article highlights the potential for a "bubble" as companies increasingly rely on Bitcoin for their financial strategies, raising concerns about the sustainability of such models [10] - As of 2025, the Bitcoin market remains highly volatile, with significant price fluctuations impacting company valuations and strategies, necessitating careful management of investments and debt [10]

Core Insights - Warren Buffett announced his retirement as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway by the end of 2025, with Abel set to take over, marking the end of an era for the company [1] - Buffett's investment philosophy emphasizes viewing investments as ownership in companies, focusing on the ability and willingness of companies to pay dividends [1][2] - The concept of value investing, which Buffett embodies, remains relevant regardless of market conditions, highlighting the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective [4] Investment Philosophy - Buffett's core investment principle is centered around dividends, which depend on a company's operational success and management's willingness to distribute profits [1] - The ability to influence dividend policies is a significant factor in Buffett's investment decisions, as seen in his investments in Japanese trading companies [2] - Value investing is characterized by a calm and rational approach, avoiding decisions that cause sleepless nights, and maintaining independence in thought [3] Market Behavior - The contrast between speculative behavior during market upswings and a focus on value investing during downturns is a common issue for ordinary investors [4] - The allure of leveraging investments can lead to poor decision-making, emphasizing the need for a grounded understanding of investment principles [4] - Buffett's teachings serve as a reminder that common sense will ultimately prevail over market volatility and emotional trading [4]

Core Viewpoint - The overall market is experiencing an upward trend, with the index returning to a rating of 4.1 stars, indicating a positive investment environment [1]. Market Performance - Large, medium, and small-cap stocks are all rising, with medium-cap stocks showing slightly higher gains [2]. - Growth styles, particularly in the technology and innovation sectors, have rebounded strongly after recent declines [3]. - In the value style, stocks with strong free cash flow have increased by over 2%, approaching normal valuation levels [4]. - The Hong Kong stock market is also seeing overall gains, with the Hang Seng Index and the Hong Kong Technology Index rising by over 2% [6][7]. Historical Context of Market Ratings - The article discusses the rarity of 1-star market bubbles, which typically occur at the peak of bull markets, such as in 2007 and 2015 for A-shares, where the Shanghai Composite Index reached over 6000 and 5000 points respectively [12][16]. - The article notes that after the 1-star ratings in 2007 and 2015, A-shares experienced significant declines of 70% and 50% respectively [16]. - Comparatively, the Nasdaq experienced a similar bubble in 2000, with a subsequent drop of over 80% until it regained its previous levels in 2017 [17]. Current Market Conditions - The current market is characterized by a recovery in fundamentals, with a single-digit year-on-year profit growth for the CSI index, indicating a modest improvement compared to the previous year [26]. - The global market's rise is primarily driven by the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, leading to increased liquidity [26]. - The current market dynamics resemble those of 2015, with ample liquidity driving small-cap and growth stocks to lead the rally, although personal leverage is being strictly controlled [26]. Valuation Insights - The article provides a valuation table for various dividend and free cash flow indices, indicating the current earnings yield and other financial metrics for reference [28]. - The valuation data suggests that certain indices are currently undervalued and suitable for dollar-cost averaging, while others are overvalued [42]. Future Outlook - The potential for the current bull market to reach a 1-star rating is uncertain, with short-term fluctuations being unpredictable [26]. - The article emphasizes the importance of patience in investment, suggesting that investors should buy during downturns and sell during peaks, while waiting for opportunities in between [26].