本次 12 月会议纪要还提及，美联储官员就'如何精准锚定金融体系合意准备金规模'展开讨论。部分委 员指出，考虑到准备金需求可能出现变动，紧盯货币市场利率与准备金余额利率的利差水平，而非设定 具体的准备金规模阈值，是更优选择。 美联储决策者强调，此类购债操作仅为准备金管理工具，与美联储整体货币政策及经济刺激举措毫无关 联。 会议纪要显示，此次决策的背景是，部分参会委员发现，当前货币市场利率相对于美联储管理利率的上 行速度，已快于 2017-2019 年美联储缩表期间的水平。 本月初，美联储已停止缩表（即量化紧缩）进程 —— 此前规模达 12.6 万亿美元的回购市场已显现流动 性承压迹象。自今夏以来，美国国库券发行规模大幅增加，叠加量化紧缩政策，持续从货币市场抽离资 金，耗尽美联储核心流动性工具，推高短期市场利率。 市场担忧，若流动性严重不足，将扰乱金融市场核心清算体系，削弱美联储对利率政策的调控能力；极 端情况下，还可能引发市场平仓潮，并蔓延至全球融资利率基准的美国国债整体市场。 美联储一项调查的受访者预计，为缓解货币市场压力，美联储未来 12 个月的准备金管理购债规模总计 将超 2000 亿美元。 美联储决策 ...

会议纪要显示，在克服内部巨大分歧于三周前决定继续降息的同时，大多数官员预计，若通胀下行趋势 符合他们预期，未来适合进一步降息。不过，部分决策者认为，降息行动应该暂停"一段时间"，体现 出，美联储对明年初降息态度谨慎。 美东时间30日周二，美联储公布12月9日至10日的货币政策会议纪要，其中写道，在讨论货币政策前景 时，与会者对美联储货币政策委员会FOMC的政策立场是否具有限制性表达了不同的看法。 "大多数（Most）与会者认为，若通胀如预期那样逐步下降，则可能适合进一步"降息。 关于进一步降息的幅度和时机，"部分"（some）与会者表示，根据他们对经济前景的预 测，在本次会议降息后，"可能需要一段时间（for some time）保持（联邦基金利率）目标 区间不变"。 "少数（a few）与会者指出，这种做法可以让决策者评估，（FOMC）委员会近期所采取的 更趋中性政策立场对劳动力市场和经济活动有何滞后影响，同时也能让决策者有时间对通胀 回升至2%更有信心。 本次会议纪要也暴露了美联储决策层对12月降息的分歧。 纪要写道，与会者指出，通胀率自今年年初以来有所上升，并保持在较高水平，现有指标显示经济活动 以温和 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, marking the third rate cut of the year, while indicating a significant internal division among policymakers regarding future monetary policy actions [2][5][10]. Group 1: Rate Cut and Internal Disagreement - The target range for the federal funds rate has been adjusted from 3.75%-4.00% to 3.50%-3.75% [2]. - This decision faced three dissenting votes, the highest level of disagreement in six years, reflecting concerns over inflation and the labor market [4][6]. - The Fed's dot plot indicates an expectation of one more 25 basis point cut next year, suggesting a slowdown in the pace of rate cuts compared to this year [2][10]. Group 2: Market Expectations and Future Actions - The CME tools show an 88% probability of a 25 basis point cut this week, with a 71% chance of another cut by June next year [2]. - The term "hawkish cut" has been used to describe the Fed's current stance, indicating a potential pause in rate cuts after this decision [2][3]. - The Fed has initiated a reserve management program, planning to purchase $40 billion in short-term Treasury securities to address liquidity pressures in the money market [8][17]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Inflation - The Fed's statement has shifted to emphasize the "magnitude and timing" of future rate adjustments, indicating a higher threshold for further cuts [7][8]. - The economic outlook has been adjusted, with an increase in GDP growth expectations and a slight decrease in PCE inflation forecasts for the next two years [11][12]. - Powell noted that inflation risks are skewed upward while employment risks are skewed downward, highlighting a challenging economic environment [15][16].

要点： 美联储如市场所料连续第三次降息25个基点，但自2019年来首次三票反对利率决议。 特朗普"钦点"的理事米兰继续主张降息50基点，两名地区联储主席以及四名非票委支持按兵不动，实际七人反对决议，据称分 歧为37年来最大。 会议声明重申通胀仍略高企、近几个月就业下行风险已增加，删除失业率"保持低位" 、称截至9月略升。 声明新增考虑进一步降息的"幅度和时机"，被视为暗示降息门槛更高。 声明称准备金已降至充足水平，为维持充足准备金将本周五开始买短债。纽约联储计划未来30天买入400亿美元短债，预计明 年一季度准备金管理购买（RMP）短债保持高位。 利率预期中位值持平上次，暗示明后年预计各降息一次，点阵图的明年利率预测变动较上次偏鸽，预计不降息人数少一人至七 人。 经济展望上调今年及此后三年GDP增长预期，小幅下调今明年通胀和后年失业率预期。 "新美联储通讯社"：联储暗示可能暂时不会再降息，因内部对通胀和就业担忧孰轻孰重的分歧大得"罕见"。 美联储如市场所料再次以常规步伐降息，但暴露了投票决策者内部六年来最大的分歧，暗示明年将放慢行动步伐，近期可能不行动。联储 也如华尔街人士所料启动准备金管理，决定年末买入短期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, marking the third cut this year, while indicating a potential slowdown in future rate cuts due to internal divisions among policymakers [1][4][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Decision - The target range for the federal funds rate has been reduced from 3.75%-4.00% to 3.50%-3.75%, totaling a 75 basis point cut this year and 175 basis points since September of last year [1][4]. - This decision faced significant dissent, with three votes against it, marking the largest internal disagreement in six years [1][4][3]. - The dot plot indicates that the Fed still expects one more 25 basis point cut next year, suggesting a slower pace of rate cuts compared to this year [1][8]. Group 2: Market Expectations - The CME tool shows an 88% probability of a 25 basis point cut this week, with a 71% chance of another cut by June next year, while the probabilities for cuts in January, March, and April are below 50% [1][2]. - The term "hawkish cut" has been used to describe the Fed's current stance, indicating a rate cut with a hint of a pause in future actions [2]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Fed has raised its GDP growth forecast for this year and the next three years, while slightly lowering the unemployment rate forecast for 2027 by 0.1 percentage points, indicating a resilient labor market [12]. - The Fed has also slightly reduced its PCE inflation and core PCE inflation forecasts for the next two years by 0.1 percentage points, reflecting increased confidence in a slowdown in inflation [13]. Group 4: Short-Term Treasury Purchases - The Fed has announced the initiation of short-term Treasury purchases to maintain sufficient reserves in the banking system, planning to buy $40 billion in short-term debt over the next 30 days [6][7][22]. - This move is aimed at rebuilding liquidity buffers in the money market, especially as year-end market pressures typically arise [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve may take additional measures to address pressures in the funding markets, even after potentially ending its balance sheet reduction this week [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - Multiple Wall Street banks, including JPMorgan, expect the Fed to stop reducing its $6.6 trillion portfolio of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) as early as this month [1] - JPMorgan strategists anticipate that the end of quantitative tightening (QT) will prevent further liquidity loss in the system, but funding pressures may persist [1] - The Fed is likely to implement temporary open market operations to alleviate common market tensions during key payment dates [1][2] Group 2: Market Conditions - Since the Fed began reducing its asset portfolio in June 2022, over $2 trillion has exited the financial system, leading to a significant drop in the reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) balance [2] - Various borrowing rates used in interbank lending have risen and remained high, indicating that bank reserves have not fully circulated within the financial system [2] - The Fed's benchmark rate has increased four times since the last meeting in September, reflecting tighter liquidity conditions [2] Group 3: Future Expectations - Once the Fed halts the reduction of its Treasury holdings, it is expected to reinvest funds into newly issued Treasuries to rebuild bank reserves, with regular T-bill purchases anticipated to start in early 2026 [2] - JPMorgan strategists suggest that the Fed should consider lowering the rate on the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) by 5 basis points to encourage more active use of the facility [3] - Market observers believe that the Fed's work will not be complete after ending asset reduction, as it may need to expand its asset size again to maintain balance in the reserves market [4]