记者丨曹恩惠 编辑丨张伟贤 "当前，我们或许正在经历一场被放大的'周期幻象'。"2025年12月中旬，协鑫集团董事长朱共山应邀参加了一场企业家论坛。 在演讲环节，他抛出了上述看法并进一步强调：结构性矛盾不等于周期性波动，内卷和过剩也不能完全归因于周期。 于是，朱共山呼吁："我们需要进行一场彻底的供给侧结构性改革。" 2025年，当光伏产业进入整治内卷的深水区，朱共山同样在这一年奔走在一线。其中最重要的一项成果是，他携手行业头部企业积极参与推动 外界所关注的"硅料收储平台"的成立。 2025年12月9日，北京光和谦成科技有限责任公司正式官宣成立。对此，中国光伏行业协会发文称："这一由相关主管部门联合指导、多家龙头 骨干企业共同发起的产业治理创新，被业内视为破解光伏'内卷式'恶性竞争的关键之一。" 在接受21世纪经济报道记者采访时，朱共山表示，内卷的本质是创新断层，破局的关键不是"熬"而是"变"，还要勇敢地走出去。 协鑫集团董事长朱共山 图片来源：受访者提供 行业正在经历周期"幻象" 2025年，包括光伏在内的中国新能源产业经历了一场深度重构。无序竞争之下，行业遭遇冲击，一场反内卷行动拉开帷幕。 2025年7月， ...

2025年12月9日，北京光和谦成科技有限责任公司正式官宣成立。对此，中国光伏行业协会发 文称："这一由相关主管部门联合指导、多家龙头骨干企业共同发起的产业治理创新，被业内 视为破解光伏'内卷式'恶性竞争的关键之一。" 在接受21世纪经济报道记者采访时，朱共山表示，内卷的本质是创新断层，破局的关键不 是"熬"而是"变"，还要勇敢地走出去。 协鑫集团董事长朱共山 图片来源：受访者提供 行业正在经历周期"幻象" 记者丨 曹恩惠 编辑丨张伟贤 "当前，我们或许正在经历一场被放大的'周期幻象'。"2025年12月中旬，协鑫集团董事长朱共 山应邀参加了一场企业家论坛。 在演讲环节，他抛出了上述看法并进一步强调：结构性矛盾不等于周期性波动，内卷和过剩也 不能完全归因于周期。 于是，朱共山呼吁："我们需要进行一场彻底的供给侧结构性改革。" 2025年，当光伏产业进入整治内卷的深水区，朱共山同样在这一年奔走在一线。其中最重要的 一项成果是，他携手行业头部企业积极参与推动外界所关注的"硅料收储平台"的成立。 事实上，在我国上一轮供给侧结构性改革中，钢铁、煤炭、水泥、电解铝等领域通过"三去一 降一补"（即去产能、去库存、去杠杆、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry experienced significant fluctuations in 2025, with oversupply in the first half leading to price declines, but a recovery in profitability was observed in the third quarter due to policy support and price adjustments in the upstream supply chain [4]. Group 1: Industry Overview - In the first half of 2025, the photovoltaic industry faced oversupply, causing prices to drop to historical lows despite attempts to stimulate demand through distributed photovoltaic installations [4]. - The implementation of domestic anti-competition policies from July to September helped to stabilize and increase prices in the upstream supply chain, leading to a gradual recovery in profitability across the industry [4]. Group 2: Company Performance - TCL Zhonghuan (002129.SZ) reported a significant decline in performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue of 13.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 17.4%, and a net profit of -4.24 billion, down 38.5% year-on-year [5]. - In the third quarter of 2025, TCL Zhonghuan's revenue rebounded to 8.17 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 28.3%, while the net profit improved to -1.53 billion, reflecting a 49% year-on-year increase and a quarter-on-quarter improvement of 800 million [5].

Summary of the Solar Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The solar industry is currently facing challenges related to supply-side reform and capacity clearance, particularly in the polysilicon segment, where prices are nearing the cash cost line of leading companies, leading to widespread industry losses [1][13] - The market has divergent views on solar policies, particularly regarding their effectiveness, the definition of minimum cost pricing, and execution methods, which has resulted in varied outlooks for the future [1][4][5] Key Points and Arguments - The future development of the solar industry depends on the implementation of supply-side optimization measures. The government has shown determination to push reforms, but specific implementation details remain uncertain, necessitating close attention to policy developments to adjust investment strategies [1][6] - Investment opportunities in the solar sector are expected to arise post-policy implementation, focusing on financially healthy companies such as Foster and Sungrow, as well as companies related to silver-free technology and integrated firms [1][10][12] - Global solar installation growth is projected to maintain a rate of 15% to 20% until 2030, driven by increasing global electricity demand and improved supply-demand relationships, indicating a long-term optimistic outlook [1][12] Market Dynamics - The solar sector is currently experiencing a supply surplus, with polysilicon prices not rebounding despite a surge in downstream component prices due to installation demand in early 2025. This has led to a situation where polysilicon inventory remains high, while silicon wafer and battery cell inventories are relatively healthy [1][20][19] - The price-to-book ratio (PB) of the solar industry is at a historical low, suggesting potential for recovery as supply-demand balance is restored and policies limit capacity expansion. A rebound in polysilicon prices could significantly improve manufacturers' profitability [1][21][30] Investment Opportunities - Current investment opportunities in the solar sector include: 1. **Financially Healthy Companies**: Companies like Foster and Sungrow, which have solid financials, are easier to invest in from a secondary market perspective [10] 2. **New Technology Firms**: Companies involved in silver-free technology are worth monitoring for potential higher elasticity [10] 3. **Integrated Companies**: These firms may offer greater elasticity due to their financial health [11] - The market is currently characterized by limited institutional holdings, particularly in key stocks like Sungrow, indicating potential for growth as policies are implemented [3][17] Challenges and Divergences - The main challenges facing the solar industry include: 1. **Supply-Demand Imbalance**: Despite discussions on industry self-discipline and policies, the fundamental supply-demand imbalance remains unresolved [2][8] 2. **Policy Effectiveness**: There is skepticism regarding whether policies can effectively address supply-side issues, with significant uncertainty surrounding the execution of legal provisions related to minimum cost pricing [4][9] 3. **Market Price Definition**: Disagreements on how to define market prices and assess profit margins add to the uncertainty [9] Future Outlook - The solar industry is expected to undergo a cyclical recovery, with potential for significant growth driven by supply-side reforms, technological advancements, and changing market demands. The focus should be on identifying financially sound companies and new technologies that can capitalize on these trends [25][29] - Historical patterns indicate that the solar industry has experienced significant downturns due to external factors, but the current landscape suggests that with proper adjustments, the industry can rebound effectively [26][27] Conclusion - The solar industry is at a critical juncture, with potential for recovery and growth contingent on effective policy implementation and market adjustments. Investors are advised to remain vigilant regarding policy developments and to focus on companies with strong financials and innovative technologies to maximize returns in the evolving market landscape [31]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a collective pullback with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.09%, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.61%, and ChiNext Index down 1.13% as of the market close on July 2, 2025, with total trading volume reaching 1.377 trillion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The steel and photovoltaic ETFs led the gains, with the steel ETF (515210) rising by 3.69%, and several photovoltaic ETFs, including the leading photovoltaic ETF (516290) and photovoltaic 50 ETF (516880), increasing by over 3% [2] Policy and Industry Insights - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting emphasized the orderly exit of backward production capacity, reigniting expectations for supply-side reforms in the steel industry. Stricter emission reduction requirements in Tangshan have weakened raw materials while strengthening steel prices [3] - The photovoltaic sector is buoyed by news of collective production cuts among glass manufacturers, with government media advocating for high-quality development by breaking down "involution" competition. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association is guiding companies to sign voluntary production control agreements to maintain market order and promote sustainable industry development [3] Innovation Drug Market - The innovative drug sector is experiencing a pullback, but the introduction of a multi-tiered medical insurance payment system is expected to expand the innovative drug market. The new commercial health insurance innovative drug directory aims to include high-value innovative drugs beyond basic insurance coverage [4] Credit Bond Market Activity - The credit bond sector is gaining attention, with the top ten ETFs by trading volume led by the Yinhua Daily ETF (511880) at 13.321 billion yuan. Other notable ETFs include the Short-term Bond ETF (511360) and the Shanghai Stock Company Bond ETF (511070), both exceeding 10 billion yuan in trading volume [5] Trading Metrics - The benchmark government bond ETF (511100) recorded the highest turnover rate at 543.16%, with the 5-year local government bond ETF (511060) and the Hang Seng ETF (159312) also showing significant turnover rates [6] New ETF Launch - The Cash Flow ETF Yongyin (159223) is set to launch, closely tracking the National Index of Free Cash Flow. This index focuses on 100 companies with high and stable free cash flow, excluding financial and real estate sectors, and has shown positive returns over the past six years [7]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic equipment sector is experiencing a strong performance, with significant gains in stock prices and inflows into related ETFs, despite a year-to-date decline in ETF values [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major photovoltaic stocks such as Yijing Photovoltaic and Oujing Technology have reached their daily limit up [1]. - Multiple photovoltaic ETFs, including Silverhua Photovoltaic 50 ETF and Huatai-PB Photovoltaic ETF, have seen increases of over 1% [1]. - Year-to-date, the photovoltaic ETFs have declined nearly 10%, with over 3.5 billion yuan net inflow into these funds [4]. Group 2: Fund Inflows - The top-performing ETFs in terms of net inflow include Huatai-PB Photovoltaic ETF with 2.637 billion yuan and Tianhong Photovoltaic ETF with 546 million yuan [4][6]. - Other ETFs also recorded net inflows, albeit at lower amounts, indicating a general interest in the sector despite the overall decline [6]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - Recent reports indicate a 30% production cut among major domestic photovoltaic glass manufacturers, with some companies maintaining normal operations [8]. - The photovoltaic industry has seen a significant increase in new installations, with 197.85 GW added in the first five months of 2025, a 150% year-on-year increase [8]. - The industry is facing challenges such as supply-demand mismatches and market failures, which have led to intensified competition and price declines [9].