债权类ETF成资金避风港。 作者 | 市值风云基金研究部 编辑 | 小白 各位老铁大家好，这里是市值风云基金研究部ETF栏目，会在每周末发布ETF基金最新的市场数据和相应指数的估值数据。今天为第八十八期。 周评总共分为3大榜单。 行业中，光伏产业大跌11.3%，领跌两市，新能源汽车大跌8.3%，港股通互联网、国证芯片、中证钢铁、有色金属、创新药等板块跌超6%。 而中证银行、中证消费、中证军工、中证传媒、家用电器相对抗跌。 下跌并不可怕，我们得留有子弹抄底。从市盈率和市净率估值水平，各大指数基本上都有显著下降，下周如果继续下跌，或许是给抄底的机会。 指数估值天梯主要发布指数的ROE、PE和PB值，当前位置与近十年相比处于低估或高估，并且提供指数当前处于历史的分位数据。 ETF上涨"英雄"榜主要发布当周规模大于5亿元的ETF的涨幅前二十名。 份额增幅榜主要看当周规模超5亿元的ETF份额增加幅度前二十名。 指数估值"天梯"榜 本周市场大跌，投资者一片哀嚎。创业板指大跌超6%，领跌宽基指数，中证500、中证1000和科创50均跌逾5%。 | | | | | | 重要行业指数估值"天梯" 榜第八十八期(2025.11. ...

Core Insights - The securities ETF (159841) has seen significant trading activity, with a transaction volume of 234 million yuan and a recent increase in the underlying index by 0.56% [1] - The ETF has experienced a notable growth in scale, with an increase of 33.51 million yuan over the past week, reaching a new high of 9.678 billion shares [1][2] - The recent merger of China International Capital Corporation (CICC) with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities is expected to reshape the competitive landscape of the securities industry [4][5] Fund Performance - The securities ETF (159841) has attracted a total net inflow of 488 million yuan over the past week, with a peak single-day inflow of 173 million yuan [1][2] - The ETF's current scale stands at 10.702 billion yuan, making it the largest and most liquid securities ETF in the Shenzhen market [2] Merger Details - CICC is leading the merger with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, utilizing a share exchange method to absorb both firms [4] - As of September 2025, CICC's net assets were 115.5 billion yuan, while Dongxing and Xinda had net assets of 29.6 billion yuan and 26.4 billion yuan, respectively, resulting in a combined net asset exceeding 170 billion yuan post-merger [4][5] Strategic Implications - The merger is expected to enhance CICC's capabilities in debt restructuring and risk resolution, leveraging the expertise of Dongxing and Xinda in managing non-performing assets [5] - The combined entity will not only maintain its leadership in traditional investment banking but also strengthen its retail brokerage and regional market presence, creating a more balanced business model [5] - The merger is anticipated to generate "scale effects + business synergy," leading to improved revenue structure and profitability [5][6]

- The report discusses the microstructure rebalancing in the A-share market, highlighting the increased concentration of stock price movements driven by speculative capital inflows since June 2025, which has impacted quantitative products' portfolio construction and risk exposure adjustments[13][23][24] - Quantitative products have adjusted their exposure to micro-cap stocks, initially reducing their holdings to mitigate nonlinear market cap risks, and later increasing allocations to amplify excess returns as speculative capital inflows weakened post-October 2025[13][23][24] - The report emphasizes the Barra style factor performance, noting that fundamental factors such as BP value and investment quality have shown positive returns, while transaction-related factors like short-term momentum have also delivered strong excess returns during the market's recent fluctuations[23][24][25]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rumors regarding the failure of the "anti-involution" policy in the photovoltaic industry led to significant stock declines, but subsequent clarifications from industry associations helped stabilize the market, indicating a strong commitment to reversing negative competition in the sector [1][5][18]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the spread of rumors, the photovoltaic sector experienced a sharp decline, with companies like Jingao Technology and Tongwei Co. seeing drops of 6.84% and 6.06% respectively [5]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association issued a statement to refute the rumors, emphasizing the importance of maintaining industry integrity and combating malicious market manipulation [1][5]. Group 2: Anti-Involution Policy - The term "involution" has become synonymous with the photovoltaic industry since 2023, characterized by homogenized expansion and price wars amid slowing installation demand [7]. - The core of the current policy focuses on "price protection" and "volume control," aiming to eliminate below-cost sales and facilitate the exit of outdated production capacities to restore market balance [9][10]. Group 3: Price Recovery - Initial results from the price protection measures show positive trends, with significant price increases in key materials: silicon materials up 33.33%, silicon wafers up 17.39%, and battery cells up 8.92% [10]. - The recovery of prices is expected to improve profitability for companies, laying a solid foundation for valuation increases [20]. Group 4: Capacity Control - The silicon material segment is crucial for addressing overcapacity issues, as it has the least production flexibility and is capital-intensive [11][12]. - Companies are beginning to implement production and sales controls, with expectations to limit annual output to 1.4 million tons, aligning with earlier targets [14]. Group 5: Asset Revaluation - The anti-involution policies are transitioning from expectation to substantial implementation, driving the revaluation of assets in the photovoltaic sector [18][19]. - Companies like Tongwei Co., GCL-Poly Energy, and Daqo New Energy are expected to attract market attention as they benefit from reduced silicon material production and subsequent price increases [22]. Group 6: Technological Advancements - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has initiated efforts to accelerate the development of advanced photovoltaic technologies, such as perovskite solar cells, which have the potential for higher efficiency compared to traditional silicon cells [23]. - Recent announcements from companies like GCL-Poly regarding the commercialization of perovskite technology indicate a shift towards innovative production methods, which could lead to significant market opportunities [24].

Group 1 - The photovoltaic concept stocks experienced a decline in early trading, with Longi Green Energy and Tongwei Co., Ltd. dropping over 4%, and Jinglong Technology falling over 3% [1] - Related photovoltaic ETFs also saw a decrease, with an overall drop exceeding 2% [1] Group 2 - Specific ETF performance includes: - Photovoltaic ETF Index Fund at 0.835, down 2.79% - Photovoltaic ETF Fund at 0.866, down 2.48% - E Fund Photovoltaic ETF at 1.196, down 2.45% - Other ETFs also showed declines ranging from 2.09% to 2.41% [2] Group 3 - Analysts indicate that the photovoltaic industry is still at a historically low valuation. Future measures regarding product sales price, mergers and acquisitions among companies, increased industry entry barriers, and improved product quality standards are expected to be implemented [2] - The competitive landscape and industrial chain ecology of the photovoltaic industry are anticipated to optimize, presenting opportunities for valuation recovery [2]

消息面上，11月10日，国家发展改革委、国家能源局发布促进新能源消纳和调控的指导意见（以下简称"意见"），其中提出，到2030年，协同高 效的多层次新能源消纳调控体系基本建立，持续保障新能源顺利接网、多元利用、高效运行，新增用电量需求主要由新增新能源发电满足。意见 明确，完善促进新能源消纳的全国统一电力市场体系，完善适应新能源参与电力市场的规则体系。推动建立"沙戈荒"、水风光新能源基地一体化 模式参与市场的交易规则；支持分布式新能源、储能、虚拟电厂等新型主体通过聚合、直接交易等模式参与电力市根据国家能源局数据，2025年9 月国内光伏新增装机9.7GW，同比-53.8%，环比+31.2%。国内1-9月累积新增光伏装机240.27GW，同比+49.3%。 根据海关总署数据，9月组件出口额199.8亿元，同比+39.0%，环比-4.7%。1-9月累计出口额1521.8亿元，同比-13.3%。根据SMM不完全统计， 2025年9月国内光伏组件出口量25.6GW，同比+46.8%，环比-6.0%；2025年1-9月国内光伏组件累计出口量204.3GW，同比+4.6%。 （原标题：11月以来，新能源赛道领涨，光伏ETF ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月09日 ETF 周报 上周光伏 ETF 领涨，收益中位数近 9% 核心观点 金融工程周报 ETF 业绩表现 上周（2025 年 11 月 03 日至 2025 年 11 月 07 日，下同）股票型 ETF 周度 收益率中位数为 0.43%。宽基 ETF 中，上证 50ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 0.89%， 收益最高。按板块划分，周期 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 2.30%，收益最高。按 主题进行分类，光伏 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 8.71%，收益最高。 ETF 规模变动及净申赎 上周股票型 ETF 净赎回 95.70 亿元，总体规模增加 75.49 亿元。在宽基 ETF 中，上周 A500ETF 净申购最多，为 5.26 亿元；按板块来看，大金融 ETF 净申购最多，为 55.61 亿元；按热点主题来看，证券 ETF 净申购最多，为 43.11 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中，创业板类 ETF 的估值分位数相对较低；按板块来看，消费、 大金融 ETF 的估值分位数相对温和；按照细分主题来看，酒、光伏 ETF 的 估值分位数相对较低。 021-60933159 ...

- The report highlights the reversal of the momentum style factor observed after the US-China summit, indicating a shift in market narrative and the end of the previous technology-driven bull market [14] - The leverage factor has shown significant upward movement since late September, reflecting market pricing of earnings recovery expectations [14] - The BARRA style factor analysis reveals that fundamental factors remain mixed, with value-oriented assets outperforming growth-oriented ones. High BP value stocks and those with strong investment quality and profitability are expected to deliver higher excess returns [23] - Transaction-related factors show that short-term momentum stocks performed well this week, while high volatility and high turnover stocks faced potential pullbacks. High beta stocks have recovered strongly from recent corrections [23] - Market capitalization factors, including size and non-linear size, experienced synchronized pullbacks, with non-linear size showing larger declines. The market may exhibit a barbell allocation pattern, favoring small-cap stocks in the short term [23]

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes accelerating high-level technological self-reliance and building a modern industrial system centered on advanced manufacturing, providing strong momentum for China's high-tech industry [3]. ETF Investment Opportunities - The technology sector, as a policy focus, has historically outperformed most other sectors in the 1-3 years following policy announcements [3]. - Various ETFs related to key sectors under the "14th Five-Year Plan" are highlighted, including: - **Semiconductors**: Semiconductor ETF (512480), Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588200), Semiconductor Equipment ETF (159516), Consumer Electronics ETF (562950) [4]. - **High-end Manufacturing**: Industrial Mother Machine ETF (159667), Sci-Tech Machinery ETF (588850), High-end Equipment ETF (516320) [5]. - **Basic Software**: Software ETF (159852) [5]. - **Biomanufacturing**: Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (513120), Innovative Drug ETF (159992) [5]. - **Artificial Intelligence**: AI ETFs including Startup Board AI ETF (159363), Sci-Tech AI ETF (588790), Cloud Computing ETF (516510), and others [7]. - **New Energy**: Photovoltaic ETF (515790), New Energy ETF (516160), Solid-State Battery ETF (159566), and Energy Storage Battery ETF [8]. - **Aerospace and Communication**: Aerospace ETF (159227), Communication ETF (515880) [9].

Group 1 - The final share confirmation ratio for Huaxia Brazil ETF is 11.54% [1] - The final share confirmation ratio for E Fund Brazil ETF is 11.82% [2] - The timing for selling these ETFs is crucial, with reference to the performance of the Saudi ETF on its listing day [2][3] Group 2 - Both Huaxia and E Fund Brazil ETFs track the Brazil IBOVESPA Index, which covers major listed companies in Brazil [10] - The IBOVESPA Index accounts for approximately 80% of the trading volume in the Brazilian stock market [12] - The index is a total return index, meaning dividends are included in its performance [14] Group 3 - The annualized return of the IBOVESPA Index is approximately 8.9%, which is lower than the annualized returns of the S&P 500 and CSI 800 when dividends are considered [17] - The Brazilian real has depreciated significantly against the US dollar, impacting investment returns [19] - From January 2016 to May 2021, the IBOVESPA Index increased by 191.16%, but currency depreciation reduced the effective returns [20] Group 4 - The largest company by market capitalization in the IBOVESPA Index is Vale S.A., a global leader in iron ore production [27][29] - The index is diversified across various sectors, including materials, utilities, finance, and energy, with no single sector dominating [31][32] Group 5 - The Brazilian stock market is currently experiencing high volatility, with significant trading activity around the 4000-point mark [34] - There is a noticeable lack of clear market leadership among sectors, leading to a cautious investment sentiment [37] - Recent trends show that while some sectors have performed well, investor confidence remains fragile, with many choosing to sell during price increases [46]