德国工业联合会主席彼得·莱宾格表示，德国经济正处于联邦德国成立以来最严重的危机中。德国工业 持续走弱，亟须进行经济政策的根本性转变。 第四季度，超过三分之一的德国制造业企业面临订单不足的困境，大多数受访企业对当前的商业形势较 为悲观。基于行业评估和今年迄今为止的表现，德国工业联合会将该组织今年春季预测的德国制造业全 年产量下降0.5%下调至全年产量下降2%。 与德国制造业持续疲软不同，该报告认为欧盟的制造业衰退可能已经结束，制药、金属和电子等行业都 已大幅扩大了生产规模，预计今年欧盟制造业产量将增长1%。 新华财经法兰克福12月3日电（记者尹亮）德国工业联合会2日发布最新报告，预计今年德国制造业产量 将下降2%，这也将是德国制造业连续第四年下滑。 报告指出，虽然今年德国制造业开局良好，一季度制造业（不包括建筑业）产量环比增长0.9%，但自 二季度开始，制造业活动再次开始下降。下半年，德国制造业下滑趋势进一步加剧。今年前九个月，德 国制造业产量同比下降1.5%。 该报告还预测，2025年全球商品贸易将增长4%，新兴市场商品出口将增长5%，而发达经济体商品出口 将增长2%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - The WTO predicts a 0.9% growth in global merchandise trade by 2025, an improvement from the previous forecast of -0.2%, but still below the pre-tariff increase estimate of 2.7% [1] Trade Growth Factors - Asian economies are expected to be the largest positive contributors to global merchandise trade growth in 2025, although their contribution in 2026 will be lower than previously forecasted [2] - North America is projected to have a negative impact on global trade growth in 2025 and 2026, but the negative effect this year will be less than previously estimated due to higher-than-expected early imports in the first quarter [2] - European contributions to trade growth have shifted from moderate positive to slightly negative for 2025, with energy-exporting economies also expected to see reduced positive contributions due to falling oil prices [2] Import and Export Trends - Europe’s exports and imports are projected to grow by -0.9% and 0.4% respectively, slightly weaker than the April forecast, while North American exports are expected to improve slightly to -4.2% [3] Tariff Impact on Trade - The WTO explains that the previous forecast of a 0.2% contraction in trade for 2025 was based on measures in effect as of April 14, including the suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. [4] - Following agreements between the U.S. and countries like the UK, the annual forecast was adjusted to 0.3%, but higher tariffs on steel and aluminum products brought the forecast back down to 0.1% [4] - The higher tariffs effective from August 7 are expected to increasingly pressure trade, although this will be offset by the positive effects of early procurement and inventory accumulation [4] Overall Trade Forecast - The WTO's improved forecast of 0.9% growth for 2025 is attributed to two positive factors and one negative factor: a significant increase in U.S. imports by 11% year-on-year due to early procurement and inventory buildup, and a more optimistic global macroeconomic outlook compared to April [5][6] - The early procurement is the main contributor to the updated forecast, with similar patterns observed in other countries due to concerns over retaliatory measures [6] - The recent tariff adjustments are expected to have an overall negative impact on global trade prospects, with the higher "reciprocal tariffs" expected to exert increasing pressure on U.S. imports and suppress exports from trade partners [6]

Market Performance - US stock markets opened higher and closed with gains, with all three major indices rising, and the Nasdaq index reaching a new closing high [1] - As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.47% to 44,175.61 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.78% to 6,389.45 points, and the Nasdaq climbed by 0.98% to 21,450.02 points, setting a new record [2] Apple Inc. Performance - Apple shares surged over 13% this week, with significant daily increases of 5.09% on August 6, 3.18% on August 7, and 4.24% on August 8, marking the largest weekly gain in over five years [3] - The total market capitalization of Apple increased by over $390 billion (approximately 28,000 million RMB) during this period [3] Investment Commitments - Apple CEO Tim Cook announced a commitment to invest an additional $100 billion in US manufacturing over the next four years, raising the company's total planned investment in the US from $500 billion to $600 billion [5] - This investment includes collaborations with ten companies across the US, focusing on components used in Apple products, including semiconductor chips [5] Trade and Tariff Impacts - Analysts noted that concerns over tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have affected market sentiment, particularly regarding Apple's profitability [5] - The US has increased tariffs on products imported from India, which has led to tensions and responses from the Indian government [8] Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices fell over 5% this week, with US crude oil futures closing at $63.35 per barrel, down 5.91% for the week [9] - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, marking a significant shift in their production strategy [10] Bond Market Trends - US Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2-year yield increasing by 3.45 basis points to 3.762% and the 10-year yield rising by 3.49 basis points to 4.287% [12]

Core Viewpoint - The World Trade Organization (WTO) predicts a 0.9% growth in global merchandise trade by 2025, an improvement from the previous forecast of -0.2%, but still below the pre-tariff estimate of 2.7% [2][3]. Trade Growth Projections - The increase in the 2025 trade forecast is primarily attributed to a surge in U.S. imports in the first quarter, driven by expectations of tariff hikes [3][12]. - The WTO expects trade volume growth to decline from 2.5% to 1.8% for the next year due to the impact of higher tariffs [3][12]. - Asian economies are projected to be the main contributors to global trade growth in 2025, although their contribution will be lower than previously estimated [7]. - North America is expected to negatively impact global trade growth in 2025 and 2026, but the negative effect for this year is less severe than earlier predictions due to higher-than-expected U.S. imports [7][8]. Tariff Impact - The recent tariff adjustments are expected to exert increasing pressure on global trade, particularly from the higher tariffs that took effect on August 7 [11][13]. - The WTO notes that the overall negative impact of tariffs has worsened compared to earlier forecasts, influenced by various factors including exemptions for certain products [13]. - The U.S. imports are expected to see a significant increase of 11% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, primarily due to advance purchasing and inventory accumulation [12]. Economic Conditions - The global macroeconomic outlook has improved compared to earlier predictions, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and lower oil prices, which may benefit manufacturing economies [12][13]. - The European region's contribution to trade has shifted from a moderate positive to a slightly negative outlook for 2025 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The WTO has revised its global goods trade growth forecast for 2025 to 0.9%, an improvement from the previous prediction of -0.2%, but still below the pre-tariff increase estimate of 2.7% [1] Group 1: Trade Growth Factors - The increase in the 2025 trade forecast is primarily attributed to a surge in U.S. imports, driven by anticipatory purchasing ahead of tariff hikes [1][5] - The global macroeconomic outlook has improved, benefiting from a weaker dollar and lower oil prices, which support manufacturing growth [7] - However, the recent tariff adjustments are expected to exert a negative impact on global trade, particularly in the latter half of 2025 and into 2026 [7] Group 2: Regional Contributions - Asian economies are projected to remain the largest positive contributors to global goods trade growth in 2025, although their contribution for 2026 is expected to be lower than previously estimated [4] - North America is anticipated to have a negative impact on global trade growth in 2025 and 2026, although the negative effect for this year is less severe than earlier estimates due to higher-than-expected U.S. import levels [4] - Europe is shifting from a moderate positive contribution to a slightly negative one for trade in 2025, with exports and imports showing weaker growth than previously forecasted [4] Group 3: Tariff Impact - The WTO's previous forecast of a 0.2% contraction in trade for 2025 was based on earlier tariff measures, including the suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. [5] - The implementation of higher tariffs on steel and aluminum has led to a downward revision of trade growth expectations, with the latest tariffs expected to increasingly pressure trade volumes [5][6] - The positive effects of anticipatory purchasing and inventory accumulation are expected to diminish over time, leading to a decline in import demand in the latter half of 2025 [6]

Core Insights - The World Trade Organization (WTO) reported a 3.6% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 5.3% year-on-year increase in global goods trade volume for Q1 2025, driven by a surge in imports in North America due to anticipated U.S. tariff hikes [1] Trade Volume Growth - The growth in global goods trade volume for Q1 2025 exceeded the latest WTO forecasts, although a slowdown in trade expansion is expected later in the year due to ample inventories and pressure on import demand from tariff increases [1] Regional Trade Dynamics - There were significant disparities in trade volume growth across regions, particularly in imports, with North America experiencing the strongest quarter-on-quarter import growth of 13.4% [1] - The surge in North American imports is attributed to widespread market expectations of new U.S. tariff measures to be announced on April 2, prompting importers to stock up in advance to avoid higher future costs [1]