短期交易中东紧张局势，警惕油价大幅冲高回落 原油月报： 2026年2月报 证券分析师 陈潇榕 投资咨询资格编号：S1060523110001 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524070002 石油石化 强于大市（维持） 2026年3月4日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 证券研究报告 核心观点：伊朗地缘局势高度紧张，国际油价震荡偏强 • 国际油价回顾：2026年2月油价呈现震荡偏强走势。2026年初以来，美委关系紧张，中东局势动荡，地缘风险升温再次成为支撑油价的主因。重点 影响事件：1）2月1日，特朗普称希望与伊朗"能够达成协议"。2）2月5日，美国政府敦促美国公民立即离开伊朗。3）2月7日，乌能源设施遭 "大规模袭击"，全国实施紧急轮流停电。4）2月10日，特朗普称，若美伊谈判失败，或向中东再派一支航母打击群；同日，美国政府官员正考 虑扣押运输伊朗石油的油轮，以对伊朗施压。5）2月16日，伊朗革命卫队海军在霍尔木兹海峡举行演习，而美国继续向中东地区大规模增兵。6） 2月17日，美伊第二轮间接谈判在日内瓦举行，伊朗方面尚未愿意承认特朗普提出的部分"红线"。7）2月20日，美国最大航母"杰拉尔 德·R·福特"号 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油周报 (2.24-2.27) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 上周，原油继续受地缘因素影响震荡运行尾盘大幅走高。纽约交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶67.29美元，周涨1.48%；伦敦布伦特原油主 力期货价格收于每桶73.21美元，周涨2.77%；中国原油期货SC主力合约收至502.4元/桶，周涨3.16%。周内前期，市场持续关注美伊局势的进展， 目前美伊双方已经进行两轮间接谈判，但仍未取得实质进展。一方面，伊朗和美国在日内瓦举行的会谈中就指导原则达成了"总体协议",并称 与美国的会谈是认真且富有建设性的，但另一方面，美国方面表示如果德黑兰不在数日内就其核活动达成协议，将 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Oil price volatility has increased this week, and the rebound height may be limited without clear signals of production cuts or a significant escalation of geopolitical situations [4] - PX supply and demand are expected to ease, and PTA prices are expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term due to weak downstream demand [4] - Ethylene glycol is in a situation of supply surplus, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [5] - Pure benzene and styrene are generally cautiously bullish, but there is a risk of correction [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - This week, oil prices fluctuated sharply due to geopolitical and Fed policy uncertainties. Tensions in the Middle East, concerns about potential supply disruptions, a reduction in US crude oil production due to force majeure, a decrease in US crude oil inventories, and a decline in the US dollar index supported oil prices [4] - OPEC+ announced a suspension of the production increase plan for the first three months of 2026 at the end of 2025, but the long - term production increase trend remains unchanged. Non - OPEC+ producers are expected to contribute an output increase of 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026 [4] PX & PTA - Domestic PX load remained unchanged, and processing fees fell to around $300/ton. With the end of some device maintenance, PX supply and demand are expected to ease, and attention should be paid to the subsequent terminal restocking [4][10] - This week, PTA devices remained unchanged, factory inventories started to accumulate, and downstream operations weakened significantly. There is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation in February. The polyester industry's operating rate will decline rapidly, and the overall maintenance intensity exceeds that of the same period last year [4] - The current spot price of PTA is 5,068 yuan/ton, with a weekly average capacity utilization rate of 76.29%. Factory - in inventory days increased to 3.72 days. PTA processing fees are 422 yuan/ton. As future supply recovers and downstream demand weakens, PTA prices are expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term [16] MEG - At the beginning of the month, there are plans for large Saudi contract ships to enter the warehouse, and the near - term arrivals are still relatively high. The arrivals will gradually decrease from mid - February [5] - The seasonal inventory accumulation from January to February is at a high level since 2021, and the future expectation is difficult to reverse. Polyester demand is weak, the supply - demand of ethylene glycol is imbalanced, and device losses are expanding [5] - The current price of ethylene glycol is around 3,600 yuan/ton, which has a certain support. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to overseas situations [5] BZ & EB - The operating rate of pure benzene has increased, and there are expectations of restarting multiple domestic related devices, so the overall supply is expected to rise. This week, the pure benzene port inventory remained flat but is still at a high level [5][38] - It is expected that during the Spring Festival, the load reduction of styrene will be limited under high profits, while other varieties with weak profits may have obvious load reductions. In February, the overall demand will remain stable month - on - month, and it is expected to gradually enter a seasonal inventory accumulation pattern [5] - The overall operating rate of downstream 3S is not high, showing an inventory reduction trend. With the subsequent resumption of some devices and the high inventory of pure benzene, there is a risk of correction. Pure benzene and styrene are generally cautiously bullish [5] Polyester Industry - The weekly average capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry is 79.53%, a decrease of 2.34 percentage points from last week. As the Spring Festival approaches, multiple devices are under maintenance, and the domestic polyester industry output continues to decline significantly [30] - The operating rate of sample enterprises in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving industry is 22.47%, a decrease of 19.94% from the previous data. The average number of terminal weaving order days is 6.35 days, a decrease of 0.35 days from last week. The average level of terminal weaving finished product inventory is 26.08 days, a decrease of 2.72 days from last week [30]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Short - term oil prices are influenced by the Iranian situation. The US - Iran nuclear negotiations have a slim chance of reaching an agreement, but their progress needs close monitoring. Iranian oil competes with Russian oil, and Iran strongly demands the lifting of sanctions. Oil prices will be range - bound in the short term and a short - position is recommended in the medium term [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Key Data - On February 6, Saudi Arabia cut the price of its main crude oil grade for Asian buyers to the lowest level in years, indicating that global oil supply has exceeded demand. Saudi Aramco lowered the price of "Arab Light" oil for Asian buyers by 30 cents per barrel, which is the lowest since late 2020 [1]. - BP is seeking partners to increase production at the oldest oil field in the Middle East and share costs. The search for potential investors in the Kirkuk oil field in Iraq is underway, and it may last until next year. Large oil companies are showing renewed interest in Iraq, which has abundant and easily - mined oil resources. BP is seeking more international growth in oil and gas production, abandoning its previous pursuit of clean energy and net - zero emissions [1]. - On February 5, due to the US - Iran agreement to hold nuclear negotiations in Oman on Friday, confirmed by the White House and the Iranian Foreign Ministry, crude oil prices fell in the Asian morning session [1]. Investment Logic - Short - term oil prices are affected by the Iranian situation. The US - Iran nuclear negotiations face large differences, with a small hope of agreement, but progress should be closely monitored. Iranian oil competes with Russian oil, and the lifting of sanctions is Iran's strong demand [2]. Strategy - Oil prices will be range - bound in the short term and a short - position is recommended in the medium term [3].

Group 1 - The first trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States since the escalation of the Ukraine crisis took place in Abu Dhabi, with no signs of compromise on territorial issues [2][5] - The discussions were constructive overall, with significant divisions remaining on political matters, while some progress was made in military discussions regarding troop disengagement and ceasefire monitoring mechanisms [2][6] - The next round of talks is expected to occur on February 1 in Abu Dhabi [4] Group 2 - Ukrainian President Zelensky described the talks as constructive, emphasizing the importance of U.S. oversight in the process of ending the war [6] - The military representatives from all three parties agreed to prepare a list of topics for the next meeting, focusing on potential solutions for ending the conflict [6] - The current discussions did not address energy ceasefire issues [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the geopolitical tensions surrounding Venezuela, particularly the implications of U.S. actions against President Maduro and the potential impact on global oil markets. Group 1: Venezuela's Oil Reserves and Production - Venezuela holds approximately 17% of the world's oil reserves, totaling around 303 billion barrels, valued at $17 trillion, surpassing Saudi Arabia [4] - Despite having the largest proven oil reserves globally, Venezuela's current oil production is less than 1 million barrels per day, which is a small fraction of global oil output [3][4] - The country’s oil production has significantly declined due to mismanagement, lack of investment, and sanctions, resulting in production being only a fraction of its previous capacity [4] Group 2: Short-term and Long-term Market Impacts - The immediate impact of the Venezuelan conflict on oil prices is expected to be limited, with analysts predicting a potential increase of only $1 to $2 per barrel for Brent crude [4][5] - Geopolitical tensions may raise risk premiums, potentially driving oil prices higher, with forecasts suggesting WTI and Brent crude could reach around $60 and $63 per barrel, respectively, if the situation escalates [5] - In the medium term, if sanctions are lifted and foreign investment returns, Venezuela's oil exports could rise to nearly 3 million barrels per day [6] Group 3: U.S. Interests and Corporate Involvement - The U.S. has long sought access to Venezuela's heavy crude oil, which complements its domestic light crude production, particularly for refining purposes [6][7] - Chevron is currently the only major U.S. oil company operating in Venezuela, and it is poised to benefit significantly if the country opens up its oil sector [7] - The restoration of Venezuela's oil industry is capital-intensive, with estimates suggesting that an investment of $15 to $20 billion would be needed to increase production by 500,000 barrels per day [7]

Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policy - The Trump administration is preparing a backup plan to restore tariffs amid potential Supreme Court challenges to a key tariff authorization [1][2] - If the court rules against the administration, the U.S. government may have to refund over $88 billion in tariffs already collected [2] - The U.S. has recently adjusted tariffs on Brazilian goods, eliminating a 40% additional tariff on certain products while approximately 22% of exports to the U.S. remain affected [2][3][4] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Boston Fed President Collins indicated that the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has nearly doubled, with market expectations rising to about 70% [7] - The market reacted positively to dovish comments from New York Fed President Williams, leading to a rebound in U.S. stock indices [7] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices have been declining, with WTI and Brent crude prices dropping over 3.15% and 2.84% respectively in the past week [11] - Analysts attribute the weak oil market to geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic sentiment, and fundamental oversupply concerns [11][12] - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine is currently a major support factor for oil prices, but any progress in peace talks could lead to a significant drop in geopolitical risk and a potential return of Russian oil to the market [11][12][13] Group 4: Supply and Demand Outlook - The global oil market is expected to face significant inventory pressure by late 2025 to early 2026, with EIA and IEA projecting substantial stock builds [12] - Recent increases in OPEC+ oil exports have heightened concerns about oversupply, with forecasts indicating a potential surplus of up to 4.09 million barrels per day by 2026 [12][13] - The rising floating storage and in-transit oil volumes are expected to exert further pressure on land-based inventories and oil prices [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil continued to trade in a narrow range, waiting for more information. Russian oil supply may decline due to sanctions and harassment, while the US government's potential reopening may boost the financial market and stabilize oil prices. Currently, the market is in a stalemate, with medium - to long - term downward pressure and short - term waiting for geopolitical developments. SC2512 is expected to trade in the range of 455 - 465, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. - Short - term geopolitical conflicts have intensified, while medium - to long - term supply may increase. The market is affected by factors such as optimistic signals from China - US trade negotiations, increased sanctions on Russia, and potential OPEC+ production adjustments [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: The long - lasting US government shutdown may end this week, and a compromise bill has cleared initial hurdles in the Senate. Russia's Tuapse refinery in the Black Sea has suspended fuel exports after a drone attack, and US sanctions on Lukoil are approaching [3]. - **Basis**: On November 10, the spot price of Oman crude was $65.64 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude was $64.95 per barrel, with a basis of 33.29 yuan/barrel, indicating a spot premium over futures [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude inventory increased by 6.521 million barrels in the week ending October 31, and EIA inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels (expected increase of 0.603 million barrels). Cushing area inventory increased by 30 barrels in the week ending October 31. As of November 10, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 3.464 million barrels, a decrease of 0.6 million barrels [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was above the average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of September 23, WTI crude oil main position was long, with an increase in long positions; as of November 4, Brent crude oil main position was long, with a decrease in long positions [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Two Indian state - owned refineries bought 5 million barrels of crude oil from the spot market to replace Russian oil. HPCL bought 2 million barrels of WTI and 2 million barrels of Abu Dhabi Murban crude, and MRPL bought 1 million barrels of Basra Medium crude [5]. - US President Trump said he would lower tariffs on Indian goods and that the US was "very close" to reaching a trade agreement with India [5]. - A temporary appropriation bill to end the government shutdown is expected to pass in the Senate on Monday evening, but it also needs to be approved by the House of Representatives and signed by the president [5]. - Fed officials are divided on further interest rate cuts. Some are skeptical, while others are open to it, and one called for a 50 - basis - point cut in December [5]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish**: Optimistic signals from China - US trade negotiations, cancellation of US - Russia talks and increased sanctions on Russia, and OPEC+ may suspend production increases in Q1 next year [6]. - **Bearish**: Easing of the Middle East situation, risk of US government shutdown, and OPEC+ considering further production increases [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: Brent crude settled at $64.06 (up $0.43, 0.68%), WTI at $60.13 (up $0.29, 0.48%), SC at 460.2 (up 3.30, 0.72%), and Oman at $64.99 (up $0.36, 0.56%) [7]. - **Spot Quotes**: UK Brent Dtd was at $62.60 (down $1.07, - 1.68%), WTI at $60.13 (up $0.38, 0.64%), Oman at $65.64 (up $0.27, 0.41%), Shengli at $60.87 (down $0.06, - 0.10%), and Dubai at $65.62 (up $0.62, 0.95%) [9]. - **Inventory Trends**: API inventory increased by 6.521 million barrels in the week ending October 31, and EIA inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels in the same period [3][10][12]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Net Long Position**: As of September 23, the net long position was 102,958, an increase of 4,249 [16]. - **Brent Net Long Position**: As of October 28, the net long position was 171,567, an increase of 119,046 [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market on November 6, 2025, showed more rising contracts than falling ones. Some commodities like p-xylene, coking coal, and PTA had significant increases, while container shipping to Europe and asphalt declined [6][7]. - The market is influenced by various factors such as international policies (e.g., OPEC+ production decisions), supply - demand dynamics of different commodities, and macro - economic data (e.g., US employment data) [7][9][12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Copper - The copper market is in a tight supply - demand balance. Supply is affected by negative smelting processing fees, potential supply disruptions from the Indonesian copper mine accident, and planned smelter overhauls. Demand is somewhat suppressed by rising prices. The US employment data affects the macro - expectation, and the strong dollar restricts the upside of copper prices [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply is increasing as upstream production is active, with high开工 rates. Demand is strong, especially from the energy - storage battery sector, leading to significant inventory reduction. However, due to the uncertainty of official复产 news, caution is advised when chasing the rising price [11]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ plans to increase production in December, which will increase the supply pressure in the fourth quarter but relieve it in the first quarter of next year. The demand peak has ended, and the market is in a supply - surplus situation. Geopolitical factors such as US sanctions on Russian oil companies and the US - Venezuela situation also affect the market, and the price is expected to oscillate [12][13]. Asphalt - Supply has a slight decrease, with开工 rates at a relatively low level. Demand is affected by project construction in the north and price inquiries in the south. With the influence of crude oil price fluctuations and the release of low - price resources, the asphalt futures price is expected to be weakly oscillating [14]. PP - The downstream开工 rate is at a relatively low level, and the supply is affected by new capacity and reduced maintenance. The market lacks large - scale procurement, and with the influence of crude oil and the absence of anti - involution policies, the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [15][16]. Plastic - The开工 rate is at a neutral level, and the downstream开工 rate is relatively low. New capacity is added, and the demand in the peak season is not as expected. With the influence of crude oil and the lack of anti - involution policies, the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [17]. PVC - Supply is increasing with high开工 rates and new capacity. The export expectation is weakening, and the inventory is still high. The real - estate market is in adjustment, and with the end of maintenance and high futures warehouse receipts, the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [18]. Coking Coal - Supply is tightening due to production restrictions in Shanxi. The inventory is being transferred downstream. The demand from steel mills is affected by environmental protection, resulting in a tight - balance situation, and the price is expected to be in high - level consolidation [19][20]. Urea - Supply is increasing with high daily production. Demand is also increasing as the downstream replenishes at low prices. The market atmosphere is improving, and the price is expected to have a small - range rebound and narrow - range oscillation [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement, the ongoing US government shutdown, and the potential for new US sanctions on Russia have led to a significant reduction in geopolitical concerns, causing oil prices to decline. With insufficient bullish stimuli and an expected oversupply in the fourth quarter, crude oil is trending downward. The domestic market price has broken below the lower limit of the previous trading range, facing significant pressure in the future. Short-term trading is expected to be in the range of 460 - 470, and long-term long positions are advised to be closed [3]. - In the short term, geopolitical conflicts are weakening, and in the medium to long term, there is a risk of increased supply [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: The Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement and the ongoing US government shutdown are bearish factors. Trump's indication of possible new sanctions on Russia also adds uncertainty [3]. - **Basis**: On October 9, the spot prices of Oman and Qatar Marine crude oil were $66.95/barrel and $65.87/barrel respectively, with a basis of $25.17/barrel, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is a bullish factor [3]. - **Inventory**: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending October 3 increased by 2.78 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 2.25 million barrels. The EIA inventory for the same period increased by 3.715 million barrels, also exceeding the expected increase of 1.885 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory decreased by 763,000 barrels during the week ending October 3. As of October 9, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.401 million barrels, which is bearish [3]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish [3]. - **Main Position**: As of September 23, the long positions in the WTI crude oil main contract increased, while as of September 30, the long positions in the Brent crude oil main contract decreased, showing a neutral stance [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **Geopolitical**: The Israeli government approved a ceasefire agreement with Hamas, which may lead to a relaxation of the Middle East situation. The US imposed sanctions on about 100 individuals, entities, and vessels, including a Chinese independent refinery and a terminal operator, for assisting Iran in oil and petrochemical product trading [5]. - **Monetary Policy**: New York Fed President Williams supports the Fed's decision to continue cutting interest rates this year, while Fed Governor Barr believes that the Fed should be cautious about further rate cuts [5]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish**: The Russia-Ukraine conflict poses a threat to refineries and oil fields [6]. - **Bearish**: The relaxation of the Middle East situation, the risk of the US government shutdown, and OPEC+'s consideration of continuing to increase production [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil were $69.22, $65.72, $480.5, and $70.53 respectively, with changes of $0.64 (+0.93%), $0.74 (+1.14%), -$14.00 (-2.83%), and -$0.08 (-0.11%) [7]. - **Spot Market**: The settlement prices of UK Brent, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude oil were $72.09, $65.72, $70.88, $66.72, and $70.71 respectively, with changes of $1.50 (+2.12%), $0.74 (+1.14%), $0.05 (+0.07%), $0.63 (+0.95%), and -$0.09 (-0.13%) [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The API crude oil inventory for the week ending October 3 increased by 2.78 million barrels, and the EIA inventory increased by 3.715 million barrels [3]. 3.5 Position Data - As of September 23, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds increased by 4,249, while as of September 30, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds decreased by 11,466 [3][17][19].