特朗普政府准备关税备用方案 早上好，先来看下重要消息。 在美国最高法院可能否决一项重要关税授权之际，据悉特朗普政府正暗中筹备备用方案，以期尽快恢复关税措施。 美国官员透露，商务部和美国贸易代表办公室（USTR）都已经研究了在法院裁决不利时的"B计划"选项，其中包括动用《贸易法》第301条和第 122条，这两项条款都赋予总统单方面加征关税的权力。 值得注意的是，在本月的口头辩论中，最高法院法官对特朗普的全球性关税显得颇为怀疑。 如果裁决不利，美国政府可能被迫返还已征收的880多亿美元关税。不过，有分析师表示："我预期他们（特朗普团队）会立刻行动，把关税再加 回来。他们基本上会把原来的政策再拼回去。" 波士顿联储主席柯林斯最新表态，美联储下个月降息概率几乎翻倍 波士顿联储主席柯林斯表示，继续认为通胀方面存在风险，温和限制性的政策有助于确保通胀下降。目前对美联储而言是复杂时期，政策观点存 在差异并不令人意外，仍认为有理由对12月降息持谨慎态度。 美国调整对巴西商品关税范围 据央视新闻消息，当地时间11月21日，巴西副总统阿尔克明表示，美国宣布取消对咖啡、肉类和水果等部分品类巴西商品征收40%附加关税，但 仍有约22 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil continued to trade in a narrow range, waiting for more information. Russian oil supply may decline due to sanctions and harassment, while the US government's potential reopening may boost the financial market and stabilize oil prices. Currently, the market is in a stalemate, with medium - to long - term downward pressure and short - term waiting for geopolitical developments. SC2512 is expected to trade in the range of 455 - 465, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. - Short - term geopolitical conflicts have intensified, while medium - to long - term supply may increase. The market is affected by factors such as optimistic signals from China - US trade negotiations, increased sanctions on Russia, and potential OPEC+ production adjustments [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: The long - lasting US government shutdown may end this week, and a compromise bill has cleared initial hurdles in the Senate. Russia's Tuapse refinery in the Black Sea has suspended fuel exports after a drone attack, and US sanctions on Lukoil are approaching [3]. - **Basis**: On November 10, the spot price of Oman crude was $65.64 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude was $64.95 per barrel, with a basis of 33.29 yuan/barrel, indicating a spot premium over futures [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude inventory increased by 6.521 million barrels in the week ending October 31, and EIA inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels (expected increase of 0.603 million barrels). Cushing area inventory increased by 30 barrels in the week ending October 31. As of November 10, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 3.464 million barrels, a decrease of 0.6 million barrels [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was above the average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of September 23, WTI crude oil main position was long, with an increase in long positions; as of November 4, Brent crude oil main position was long, with a decrease in long positions [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Two Indian state - owned refineries bought 5 million barrels of crude oil from the spot market to replace Russian oil. HPCL bought 2 million barrels of WTI and 2 million barrels of Abu Dhabi Murban crude, and MRPL bought 1 million barrels of Basra Medium crude [5]. - US President Trump said he would lower tariffs on Indian goods and that the US was "very close" to reaching a trade agreement with India [5]. - A temporary appropriation bill to end the government shutdown is expected to pass in the Senate on Monday evening, but it also needs to be approved by the House of Representatives and signed by the president [5]. - Fed officials are divided on further interest rate cuts. Some are skeptical, while others are open to it, and one called for a 50 - basis - point cut in December [5]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish**: Optimistic signals from China - US trade negotiations, cancellation of US - Russia talks and increased sanctions on Russia, and OPEC+ may suspend production increases in Q1 next year [6]. - **Bearish**: Easing of the Middle East situation, risk of US government shutdown, and OPEC+ considering further production increases [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: Brent crude settled at $64.06 (up $0.43, 0.68%), WTI at $60.13 (up $0.29, 0.48%), SC at 460.2 (up 3.30, 0.72%), and Oman at $64.99 (up $0.36, 0.56%) [7]. - **Spot Quotes**: UK Brent Dtd was at $62.60 (down $1.07, - 1.68%), WTI at $60.13 (up $0.38, 0.64%), Oman at $65.64 (up $0.27, 0.41%), Shengli at $60.87 (down $0.06, - 0.10%), and Dubai at $65.62 (up $0.62, 0.95%) [9]. - **Inventory Trends**: API inventory increased by 6.521 million barrels in the week ending October 31, and EIA inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels in the same period [3][10][12]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Net Long Position**: As of September 23, the net long position was 102,958, an increase of 4,249 [16]. - **Brent Net Long Position**: As of October 28, the net long position was 171,567, an increase of 119,046 [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market on November 6, 2025, showed more rising contracts than falling ones. Some commodities like p-xylene, coking coal, and PTA had significant increases, while container shipping to Europe and asphalt declined [6][7]. - The market is influenced by various factors such as international policies (e.g., OPEC+ production decisions), supply - demand dynamics of different commodities, and macro - economic data (e.g., US employment data) [7][9][12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Copper - The copper market is in a tight supply - demand balance. Supply is affected by negative smelting processing fees, potential supply disruptions from the Indonesian copper mine accident, and planned smelter overhauls. Demand is somewhat suppressed by rising prices. The US employment data affects the macro - expectation, and the strong dollar restricts the upside of copper prices [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply is increasing as upstream production is active, with high开工 rates. Demand is strong, especially from the energy - storage battery sector, leading to significant inventory reduction. However, due to the uncertainty of official复产 news, caution is advised when chasing the rising price [11]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ plans to increase production in December, which will increase the supply pressure in the fourth quarter but relieve it in the first quarter of next year. The demand peak has ended, and the market is in a supply - surplus situation. Geopolitical factors such as US sanctions on Russian oil companies and the US - Venezuela situation also affect the market, and the price is expected to oscillate [12][13]. Asphalt - Supply has a slight decrease, with开工 rates at a relatively low level. Demand is affected by project construction in the north and price inquiries in the south. With the influence of crude oil price fluctuations and the release of low - price resources, the asphalt futures price is expected to be weakly oscillating [14]. PP - The downstream开工 rate is at a relatively low level, and the supply is affected by new capacity and reduced maintenance. The market lacks large - scale procurement, and with the influence of crude oil and the absence of anti - involution policies, the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [15][16]. Plastic - The开工 rate is at a neutral level, and the downstream开工 rate is relatively low. New capacity is added, and the demand in the peak season is not as expected. With the influence of crude oil and the lack of anti - involution policies, the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [17]. PVC - Supply is increasing with high开工 rates and new capacity. The export expectation is weakening, and the inventory is still high. The real - estate market is in adjustment, and with the end of maintenance and high futures warehouse receipts, the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [18]. Coking Coal - Supply is tightening due to production restrictions in Shanxi. The inventory is being transferred downstream. The demand from steel mills is affected by environmental protection, resulting in a tight - balance situation, and the price is expected to be in high - level consolidation [19][20]. Urea - Supply is increasing with high daily production. Demand is also increasing as the downstream replenishes at low prices. The market atmosphere is improving, and the price is expected to have a small - range rebound and narrow - range oscillation [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement, the ongoing US government shutdown, and the potential for new US sanctions on Russia have led to a significant reduction in geopolitical concerns, causing oil prices to decline. With insufficient bullish stimuli and an expected oversupply in the fourth quarter, crude oil is trending downward. The domestic market price has broken below the lower limit of the previous trading range, facing significant pressure in the future. Short-term trading is expected to be in the range of 460 - 470, and long-term long positions are advised to be closed [3]. - In the short term, geopolitical conflicts are weakening, and in the medium to long term, there is a risk of increased supply [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: The Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement and the ongoing US government shutdown are bearish factors. Trump's indication of possible new sanctions on Russia also adds uncertainty [3]. - **Basis**: On October 9, the spot prices of Oman and Qatar Marine crude oil were $66.95/barrel and $65.87/barrel respectively, with a basis of $25.17/barrel, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is a bullish factor [3]. - **Inventory**: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending October 3 increased by 2.78 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 2.25 million barrels. The EIA inventory for the same period increased by 3.715 million barrels, also exceeding the expected increase of 1.885 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory decreased by 763,000 barrels during the week ending October 3. As of October 9, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.401 million barrels, which is bearish [3]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish [3]. - **Main Position**: As of September 23, the long positions in the WTI crude oil main contract increased, while as of September 30, the long positions in the Brent crude oil main contract decreased, showing a neutral stance [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **Geopolitical**: The Israeli government approved a ceasefire agreement with Hamas, which may lead to a relaxation of the Middle East situation. The US imposed sanctions on about 100 individuals, entities, and vessels, including a Chinese independent refinery and a terminal operator, for assisting Iran in oil and petrochemical product trading [5]. - **Monetary Policy**: New York Fed President Williams supports the Fed's decision to continue cutting interest rates this year, while Fed Governor Barr believes that the Fed should be cautious about further rate cuts [5]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish**: The Russia-Ukraine conflict poses a threat to refineries and oil fields [6]. - **Bearish**: The relaxation of the Middle East situation, the risk of the US government shutdown, and OPEC+'s consideration of continuing to increase production [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil were $69.22, $65.72, $480.5, and $70.53 respectively, with changes of $0.64 (+0.93%), $0.74 (+1.14%), -$14.00 (-2.83%), and -$0.08 (-0.11%) [7]. - **Spot Market**: The settlement prices of UK Brent, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude oil were $72.09, $65.72, $70.88, $66.72, and $70.71 respectively, with changes of $1.50 (+2.12%), $0.74 (+1.14%), $0.05 (+0.07%), $0.63 (+0.95%), and -$0.09 (-0.13%) [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The API crude oil inventory for the week ending October 3 increased by 2.78 million barrels, and the EIA inventory increased by 3.715 million barrels [3]. 3.5 Position Data - As of September 23, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds increased by 4,249, while as of September 30, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds decreased by 11,466 [3][17][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ is considering increasing production by at least 137,000 barrels per day next month, which may lead to an oversupply in the market and put downward pressure on oil prices [3][5]. - Trump announced that Israel has agreed to the US - proposed "20 - point plan" to end the Gaza conflict, reducing geopolitical concerns and adding downward pressure on oil prices [3]. - The negotiation on the US government spending agreement has not made progress, increasing the risk of a government shutdown and further suppressing oil prices [3]. - It is expected that crude oil will operate at a low level today, with short - term trading in the range of 475 - 485, and long - term long positions should be held lightly [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Trump got support from Netanyahu on the Gaza peace proposal, but Hamas' stance is uncertain; the meeting on avoiding a US government shutdown made no progress; OPEC+ may approve a new round of production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day on October 5, which is bearish [3]. - **Basis**: On September 29, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $69.48 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $68.54 per barrel, with a basis of $24.46 per barrel, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventory decreased by 3.821 million barrels in the week ending September 19; EIA inventory decreased by 607,000 barrels in the week ending September 19, contrary to the expected increase of 235,000 barrels; Cushing area inventory increased by 177,000 barrels in the week ending September 19; Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.401 million barrels as of September 26, which is bullish [3]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the price is above the average, showing a neutral signal [3]. - **Main Positions**: As of September 16, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, and the long positions increased, which is bullish [3]. 3.2 Recent News - OPEC+ is considering increasing production by at least 137,000 barrels per day next month. Although this may lead to an oversupply, it also raises concerns about whether member countries' production capacity has reached its limit. Analysts believe that it is most likely for OPEC+ to decide on an 11 - month production increase of 137,000 barrels per day at the October 5 meeting. Due to geopolitical tensions, oil prices are still expected to rise monthly and quarterly [5]. - Trump announced that Israel has agreed to the US - proposed "20 - point plan" to end the Gaza conflict, reducing geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, the export of crude oil from northern Iraq to Turkish ports via pipeline has resumed [5]. - Saudi Arabia is expected to raise the official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil to Asian buyers in November by 20 - 40 cents per barrel [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: The EU has not reached a unified opinion on banning Russian oil imports [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: The US government has a high risk of shutdown; OPEC+ is considering further production increases; the US may impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports; the situation in the Middle East may deteriorate [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil were $69.22, $65.72, 489.1 yuan, and $70.53 respectively, with changes of $0.64 (0.93%), $0.74 (1.14%), 0.20 yuan (0.04%), and - $0.08 (- 0.11%) [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil were $72.09, $65.72, $70.88, $66.72, and $70.71 respectively, with changes of $1.50 (2.12%), $0.74 (1.14%), $0.05 (0.07%), $0.63 (0.95%), and - $0.09 (- 0.13%) [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API inventory decreased by 3.821 million barrels in the week ending September 19; EIA inventory decreased by 607,000 barrels in the week ending September 19 [3][10][12]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of September 16, the net long position was 98,709, an increase of 16,865; as of September 23, it was 102,958, an increase of 4,249 [16]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of September 16, the net long position was 232,171, an increase of 22,593; as of September 23, it was 220,579, a decrease of 11,592 [18].

Industry Investment Rating - The report did not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of crude oil is mainly due to concerns about supply constraints, which are boosted by the continuous attacks on Russian oil infrastructure by Ukraine and the potential additional sanctions from the EU and the US. Overall, the market is disturbed by geopolitical factors in the short - term, but there is still pressure from oversupply. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [2][34]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil oscillated. SC2511 opened at 485 for the week, reached a high of 493, a low of 471, and closed at 491, with a weekly increase of 4.3 or 0.88% [3]. Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 OPEC: OPEC+ Keeps the Stance of Increasing Production - In August, OPEC+ crude oil production averaged 42.4 million barrels per day, an increase of 509,000 barrels per day compared to July. OPEC's crude oil production increased by 478,000 barrels per day to 27.95 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Venezuela, and Iraq increased their production, while Nigeria and Iran decreased theirs [5]. - Non - OPEC countries in the OPEC+ alliance had a production of 14.452 million barrels per day in August 2025, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 barrels per day. Considering the production increase plan in August 2025, the actual production of non - OPEC countries was lower than the target, mainly due to the shortfalls in Mexico, Azerbaijan, and Russia [5]. - OPEC+ core eight countries decided to increase production by an additional 137,000 barrels per day starting from October. The production decision for November will be made at the next meeting on October 5. The actual supply flowing into the market may be much lower than the nominal increase quota [6]. - Kuwait will increase its crude oil production to 2.559 million barrels per day starting from October. The French President's statement about the resumption of UN sanctions on Iran has raised concerns about the stability of crude oil supply [6]. 2.2 Russia: Gradually Implementing Production Cuts, Pay Attention to the Evolution of the Russia - Ukraine Conflict - Russia's crude oil production in 2024 was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). In 2025, the expected production was adjusted to 516 million tons (10.32 million barrels per day). In August 2025, Russia's crude oil production was 9.28 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 barrels per day [9]. - In August 2025, Russia's oil and oil product exports decreased by 1% to 7.26 million barrels per day, and export revenue decreased by 6% to about $13.51 billion. As of the week of September 14, Russia's daily average seaborne crude oil exports decreased by 934,000 barrels [9]. - Since August 2025, Ukraine has launched about 27 attacks on Russian refineries, reducing Russia's refining capacity by 11% - 14%. As of September 25, 21 Russian federal subjects had fuel shortages and implemented rationing. Russia will impose a partial ban on diesel exports by the end of the year and extend the current ban on gasoline exports [10]. 2.3 US: Stable Production - As of the week of September 19, 2025, US crude oil production was 13.501 million barrels per day, an increase of 19,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. As of the week of September 26, 2025, the number of active rigs was 424, an increase of 6 compared to the previous week, and the number of fracturing fleets was 179, an increase of 5 compared to the previous week [11]. - The EIA estimates that from 3Q25 to 2Q26, the average daily global oil inventory build - up will exceed 2 million barrels. It is predicted that the low oil prices at the beginning of 2026 will lead to a decrease in supply from OPEC+ and some non - OPEC producers, and inventory adjustment will occur later in 2026. The average price of Brent crude oil next year is predicted to be $51 per barrel [11]. 2.4 American Production Increase May Dominate Future Supply Increment - The IEA raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 from 2.5 million barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day and for 2026 from 1.9 million barrels per day to 2.1 million barrels per day. Non - OPEC+ producers plan to increase production by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and slightly more than 1 million barrels per day next year [18]. 2.5 Inventory: Stable - As of July 2025, OECD commercial inventories were 2.761 billion barrels, an increase of 2.4 million barrels compared to the previous month. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 66.5 million barrels [19]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the total US crude oil inventory, including strategic reserves, was 820.712 million barrels, a decrease of 380,000 barrels compared to the previous week. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 610,000 barrels, and the gasoline inventory decreased by 1.08 million barrels [19]. 2.6 Consumption: Weakening Marginal Demand - The IEA raised the oil demand growth forecast from 680,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day and kept the average oil demand growth forecast for 2026 at 700,000 barrels per day [24]. - BP postponed the forecast of the global oil demand peak from 2025 to 2030. In the "current trajectory" scenario, global oil demand is expected to reach 103.4 million barrels per day by 2030 and drop to 83 million barrels per day by 2050 [24]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, US refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.476 million barrels per day, an increase of 52,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week, and the refinery utilization rate was 93%, a 0.3% decrease compared to the previous week [24]. 2.7 Refined Oil Processing Fee Strengthened Slightly - As of July 25, the US refined oil processing fee was $350 per ton, while the Asian refinery processing fee was $174 per ton. In the week of September 19, the average comprehensive profit of Shandong independent refineries processing imported crude oil was 186 yuan per ton, a decrease of 18 yuan per ton compared to the previous week, and the profit of major refineries was 823 yuan per ton, a decrease of 99 yuan per ton compared to the previous week [26]. 2.8 Refinery Utilization Rate at a Low Level - In July, the US refinery utilization rate was 94.42%, a month - on - month increase of 3.33%, and the European refinery utilization rate was 87.59%, a month - on - month increase of 4.46%. As of the week of September 19, 2025, the US refinery utilization rate was 93%, a 0.3% decrease compared to the previous week [28]. - As of September 25, 2025, the utilization rate of major refineries in China was 80.27%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points compared to the previous week. As of September 24, 2025, the utilization rate of Shandong local refineries was 58.28%, a 0.45% decrease compared to the previous week [28]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The recent strengthening of crude oil is mainly due to concerns about supply constraints, which are boosted by the continuous attacks on Russian oil infrastructure by Ukraine and the potential additional sanctions from the EU and the US. Overall, the market is disturbed by geopolitical factors in the short - term, but there is still pressure from oversupply. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [2][34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Iraq's northern Kurdish region resumed crude oil transportation through the pipeline to Turkey on Saturday for the first time in two and a half years, with 18 - 19万桶/日 of crude oil to be restored [3][5]. - OPEC+ may approve another increase in oil production at the October 5 meeting, with a daily increase of at least 13.7万桶 [3]. - The US government faces a shutdown risk as Trump will meet with congressional leaders to discuss government funding before the September 30 deadline [3][5]. - EU countries have not reached a unified consensus on banning Russian oil imports [3][6]. - The short - term geopolitical conflict has increased, and there is a risk of increased supply in the medium and long term. The oil price is expected to fluctuate, with short - term trading in the 490 - 500 range, and long - term long positions are advised to consider partial profit - taking [3][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Crude oil 2511: Fundamentally neutral; basis shows spot premium over futures, which is bullish; inventory data is mostly bullish; the 20 - day moving average is flat with price above, neutral;主力 positions in WTI and Brent are long and increasing, bullish [3]. - Futures prices: Brent crude settled at 69.22, up 0.64 (0.93%); WTI at 65.72, up 0.74 (1.14%); SC at 489.1, up 0.20 (0.04%); Oman at 70.53, down 0.08 (-0.11%) [7]. - Spot prices: UK Brent Dtd at 72.09, up 1.50 (2.12%); WTI at 65.72, up 0.74 (1.14%); Oman at 70.88, up 0.05 (0.07%); Shengli at 66.72, up 0.63 (0.95%); Dubai at 70.71, down 0.09 (-0.13%) [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Trump will meet with congressional leaders to avoid a government shutdown. Democrats and Republicans have different views on the short - term spending bill [5]. - Slovakia refuses to quickly stop importing Russian oil due to technical obstacles and limited alternative transportation routes [5]. - Iraq's semi - autonomous Kurdistan region resumed crude oil exports on Saturday [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: None mentioned. - Bearish factors: EU's non - unified view on Russian oil ban, US government shutdown risk, OPEC+ considering further production increase [6]. - Market drivers: Short - term geopolitical conflict increase, medium - long - term supply increase risk [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - API inventory: Decreased by 382.1万桶 in the week ending September 19 [3][10]. - EIA inventory: Decreased by 60.7万桶 in the week ending September 19, against an expected increase of 23.5万桶; Cushing region inventory increased by 17.7万桶 in the same week [3][12]. - Shanghai crude oil futures inventory: Remained at 540.1万桶 as of September 26 [3]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI crude: As of September 16, the net long position increased [3][16]. - Brent crude: As of September 16, the net long position increased [3][18].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Short - term**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading. Pay attention to the positive impact of inventory reduction in China on SC crude oil [6]. - **Medium - to - long - term**: There is significant downward pressure on oil prices. By the end of this year and the beginning of next year, Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel [8]. 3. Summary by Directory **Overview** - **Supply**: Global crude oil supply shows the characteristic of "incremental release but limited actual increase". OPEC+ plans to gradually lift a 1.65 million - barrel - per - day production cut starting from October, with an initial increase of 137,000 barrels per day, but the actual increase may be only 70,000 barrels per day. Non - OPEC+ supply, such as US shale oil, is expected to decline by 150,000 barrels per day next year due to low oil prices. Geopolitical risks also disrupt supply [6]. - **Demand**: Global crude oil demand presents a "structurally differentiated" situation. China's demand growth engine weakens, while India, Southeast Asia, and Africa become new growth points. Overall, the demand side faces challenges of "slowing total growth and reconstructing category demand" [7]. - **Strategy**: Short - term wait - and - see; long - term, there is a large downward pressure on oil prices. Strategies include unilateral wait - and - see, long - term short - selling on rallies, holding light - position positive spreads (buy SC11, sell SC12), and potential reversals in EFS spreads and SC - Dubai spreads [8]. **Macro** - Monitor the Fed's interest rate cuts as the gold - to - oil ratio has soared again. Overseas PPI has increased, and attention should be paid to inflation transmission. The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, and social financing has rebounded [14][15][20]. **Supply** - **OPEC+ Core Members**: Many OPEC+ members have different supply situations. For example, Iraq's production is limited, while the UAE aims for higher export quotas. Saudi Arabia has significantly reduced its official selling prices for Asia in October. There are also supply disruptions in Russia due to attacks on refineries [10]. - **Non - OPEC+**: The US shale oil production is expected to decline next year. Brazil, Guyana, and other regions have supply increases. There are also various geopolitical and supply - related issues in other countries [11]. **Demand** - **Regional Demand**: China's demand shows a complex situation with a decline in gasoline demand due to high electric vehicle penetration but an increase in petrochemical raw material demand. India's demand rebounds after the monsoon season. European diesel demand remains weak, while North American demand declines due to the popularity of hybrid vehicles [12]. - **Refinery开工率**: US and European refinery operating rates are seasonally declining, while the operating rates of major refineries and independent refineries in China are rising [59]. **Inventory** - **US**: US commercial inventories and Cushing region inventories are stable, but the latter is significantly lower than the historical average. - **Europe**: European diesel inventories are rebounding, and gasoline inventories are decreasing. - **China**: Domestic refined oil profit margins are falling [62][67][69]. **Price and Spreads** - **Basis**: North American basis is oscillating. - **Calendar Spreads**: Calendar spreads have a slight rebound. - **SC vs. Overseas Markets**: SC is stronger than overseas markets, and its calendar spreads are rebounding. - **Net Long Positions**: Net long positions are declining [73][74][77].

Report Summary Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core View The supply increase suppresses the rebound of crude oil, and it is recommended to wait and see again. The trend strength of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral view [1][8]. Section Summaries 1. Global Benchmark Crude Oil Price Dynamics - Brent (ICE) price is $67.49/bbl with a daily change of $1.1. The North Sea oilfield maintenance reaches its peak, and the shooting down of a Russian drone by Poland boosts the geopolitical premium [2]. - WTI (NYMEX) price is $63.67/bbl with a daily change of $1.04. Cushing inventory decreases by 2.8 million barrels weekly, and the strategic reserve repurchase starts [2]. - Dubai (Platts) price is $71.72/bbl with a daily change of $0.84. Middle - East refinery feed demand is strong, and the November spot premium hits a new high [2]. - Murban (ADNOC) price is $70.1/bbl with a daily change of -$1.02. The official selling price is lowered by $1.02 to respond to Asian buyers switching to US West Coast crude oil [2]. - Urals (CIF) price is $57.91/bbl with a daily change of $0.54. Indian refineries make bargain purchases, and the Baltic Sea loading volume increases by 15% month - on - month [2]. 2. Regional Crude Oil Spreads - Brent - WTI spread is $3.9/bbl, affected by the decline in Cushing inventory. The congestion of US Gulf export facilities intensifies, and the European arbitrage window closes [3]. - Dubai - Oman spread is $0.28/bbl, due to the Middle - East OSP cut. Saudi Arabia reduces Asian long - term contract volumes, and the spot market competition heats up [5]. - ESPO - Dubai spread is -$1.41/bbl, caused by the increase in Russian exports. Russian oil companies use a new method to avoid price limits: delivering a mixture of Omani crude oil [5]. - Midland - Cushing spread is $0.95/bbl, due to pipeline capacity constraints. An EPIC pipeline failure causes more than 5 million barrels of accumulation in the Permian Basin [5]. 3. Device Impact - Cosmo Oil's 100,000 b/d device is under maintenance from August 27 to early October, affecting Sakai crude oil. Japanese gasoline inventory drops to a five - year low, and emergency reserves are released [5]. - Sinopec Zhenhai's 200,000 b/d device maintenance is postponed to the end of September, affecting ESPO crude oil. Zhoushan's commercial crude oil inventory breaks the historical peak [5]. - BP Rotterdam's 180,000 b/d device is under maintenance from September 15 to November 10, affecting North Sea Forties. The European diesel crack spread widens by $1.2/bbl [5]. - Reliance's 660,000 b/d device is planned for maintenance in October, affecting Middle - East heavy crude oil. India's early stockpiling narrows the Middle - East fuel oil discount [5]. 4. Key Crude Oil Trade Dynamics - Persian Gulf - Japan route (VLCC): Freight is w64.5 with a weekly change of 0.15. Red Sea route insurance premiums increase by 300%, and shipowners detour around the Cape of Good Hope [6]. - US Gulf - China route (VLCC): Freight is $8.45m, an increase of $1.9m. The Panama Canal's traffic restrictions lead to tight shipping capacity [6]. - Singapore - East China route (LR2): Freight is $2.35m with a change of 0.12. China's bonded oil demand surges, and ship schedules are booked until three weeks later [6]. - West Africa - China route (Suezmax): Freight is w107.5 with a change of 0.08. India's procurement shifts to West Africa, squeezing Far - East shipping capacity [6]. 5. Comparison of Different Oil Types - 92 - octane gasoline (Singapore): Crack spread is $22/bbl, FOB price in Asia is $83.27. Indonesian Pertamina makes an emergency purchase of October cargoes, and Southeast Asian inventory drops to a three - week low [6]. - 0.5% low - sulfur fuel oil: Crack spread is $6.93/bbl, FOB price in Asia is $492.08. China's bonded refueling demand surges, and 23 ships are waiting at Zhoushan anchorage [6]. - 10ppm diesel: Crack spread is $19/bbl, FOB price in Asia is $88.12. African diesel power generation demand is in the peak season, and West African imports reach a record high [6]. - 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil: Crack spread is -$2.25/bbl, FOB price in Asia is $426. The restart of Australia's Viva refinery is delayed, and regional supply glut persists [6]. 6. Key Market News - OPEC Monthly Report: In August, OPEC+ crude oil production averaged 42.4 million barrels per day, an increase of 509,000 barrels per day compared to July as OPEC+ raised production [9]. - IEA Monthly Report: The 2025 world oil demand growth forecast is raised to 740,000 barrels per day (previously forecasted at 680,000 barrels per day) [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, crude oil oscillated at a low level. The prices of NYMEX WTI crude oil, ICE Brent crude oil, and INE crude oil futures all declined. The approaching meeting between US and Russian leaders eased investors' concerns about reduced crude oil supply due to "secondary sanctions" on Russia, pressuring oil prices. However, the market remains pessimistic about the medium - and long - term fundamentals of crude oil [3]. - Due to OPEC's production increase causing a sharp drop in oil prices, US shale oil producers are idling drilling platforms and reducing spending, which may lead to a significant decline in US crude oil production [4]. - After the Alaska Summit, geopolitical uncertainties still exist. Macroeconomically, the upcoming release of the Fed meeting minutes and Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting may pave the way for a September interest rate cut, providing some support to commodities. Oil prices are expected to continue oscillating at a low level in the short term, waiting for the negotiation results [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review - **Price Performance**: NYMEX WTI crude oil futures closed at $62.29 per barrel, down 1.67% for the week; ICE Brent crude oil futures closed at $65.45 per barrel, down 1.31% for the week; INE crude oil futures closed at 484.1 yuan per barrel, down 1.16% for the week [3]. - **Supply - side Information**: OPEC's monthly report showed that OPEC+ crude oil production increased by 335,000 barrels per day to 41.94 million barrels per day in July, but the increase was lower than the production recovery agreement reached by 8 OPEC+ countries. OPEC raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 by 100,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day and lowered its forecast for non - OPEC supply growth by the same amount [3]. - **Fund Flow**: In the week ending August 12, the net long positions of speculative traders in Brent crude oil futures decreased by 34,430 contracts to 206,547 contracts; the net long positions of speculative traders in WTI crude oil decreased by 25,087 contracts to 116,742 contracts [3]. - **Geopolitical Events**: Trump and Putin held a face - to - face meeting in Alaska. Although Trump said the meeting was "extremely productive" and they reached a consensus on most issues, no final agreement to end the conflict was reached. Putin said the meeting atmosphere was "constructive" and some non - public agreements had been reached [3]. - **US Shale Oil Situation**: US shale oil producers are idling drilling platforms and reducing spending due to OPEC's production increase and falling oil prices. The number of hydraulic fracturing units for shale oil and gas wells dropped to a four - year low last week, and producers cut about $1.8 billion from their capital expenditure plans in two quarters. The EIA predicts that US crude oil production will decline next year [4]. - **US - India Relations**: The US may impose secondary tariffs on India, depending on the outcome of the meeting between Trump and Putin. Tensions between the US and India have intensified as India increased its imports of cheap Russian crude oil after the Russia - Ukraine conflict [4]. 2. Related News - Not provided separately in the content 3. Outlook - Geopolitical uncertainties remain after the Alaska Summit. The upcoming Fed meeting minutes and Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting may support commodities. Oil prices are expected to continue oscillating at a low level in the short term, waiting for the negotiation results. The recommended short - term trading range is 480 - 510, and long - term long positions can be held with stop - loss plans [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The prices of various crude oil varieties declined this week. For example, the price of UK Brent Dtd dropped from $72.01 to $69.29, a decrease of 3.79% [8]. - **Inventory Data**: Cushing inventory and EIA inventory data are provided, showing the changes in inventory levels over different time periods [10][11]. 5. Position Data - **CFTC Fund Net Long Positions**: The net long positions of speculative traders in WTI crude oil futures decreased from 141,829 contracts on August 5 to 116,742 contracts on August 12, a decrease of 25,087 contracts [17]. - **ICE Fund Net Long Positions**: The net long positions of speculative traders in ICE Brent crude oil futures decreased from 240,977 contracts on August 5 to 206,547 contracts on August 12, a decrease of 34,430 contracts [18].