投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-04-30 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡偏弱 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 原油 2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素压制，原油震荡偏弱 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：继今年 5 月 OPEC+产油国将日均原油供应量提高 41.1 万桶后，6 月可能进一步加大增产 力度，且哈萨克斯坦称或难严格遵守补偿性减产计划。供应压力逐渐增大让市场担忧原油过 ...

撰写品种：燃料油 撰写时间：2025 年 4 月 28 日 回顾周期：周报 研究员：何宁 咨询证号：Z0001219 燃料油周度报告 一、产业链情况 （一）原油市场最新动态 近期原油市场多空因素交织，交替影响市场。供应端：欧佩克+同意 5 月增加比预 期更多的原油供应，自 5 月起将向市场增加原油供应 41.1 万桶/日。这一增产消息使得 市场对原油供应增加预期增强，理论上对原油价格有一定的下行压力。不过，市场分 析认为这次增产更多是出于改善成员国对减产协议遵守情况的考虑，而非实质性的产 量大幅提升 ，所以影响相对有限。此外，尽管伊朗国家石油公司声明爆炸未波及能源 设施，但爆炸导致港口运营中断，霍尔木兹海峡航运效率下降 25%，短期内对原油运 输产生干扰，受此影响，国际油价单日上涨 3.2%-3.8%，一定程度上支撑了燃料油价格。 需求端：国际能源署发布《全球能源评估》最新报告显示，2024 年全球石油需求增幅 仅为 0.8%，在全球能源需求中的占比首次跌破 30%，石油需求增速明显放缓。但从近 期来看，随着经济逐步复苏，物流等行业对能源需求有所增加，对原油价格有一定支 撑。 （二）燃料油市场表现 1、现货价 ...

原油面临诸多未定因素 摘 要： 原油短期库存压力不大。整体上，美国近期加快与部 分国家的关税谈判，但中美关税问题预计短期内得到解决 的可能性很小；美伊谈判仍在推进；5 月 5 日欧佩克+产量 政策会决定 6 月及之后原油市场供应情况。这种背景下， 原油市场的波动仍面临诸多的不确定性。短线交易为佳。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：师秀明 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0001784 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 策略建议：观望或短线 风险提示：无 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 原油周度跟踪报告 OPEC 月报：3 月份欧佩克整体原油日均产量 2678 万桶，比 2 月份日均减少 7.8 万桶。伊拉克 原油产量在 3 月下降了 34,000 桶/日，至 398 万桶/日。阿联酋原油产量在 3 月下降了 21,000 桶/ 日，至 293 万桶/日。伊朗原油产量在 3 月增加了 12,000 桶/日，至 333.5 万桶/日。哈萨克斯坦 原油产量在 3 月增加了 37,000 桶/日，至 185 万桶/ ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices experienced slight fluctuations as of April 25, 2025, with Brent and WTI prices at $65.80 and $63.02 per barrel respectively [7][22] - OPEC+ may accelerate the exit from voluntary production cuts in June, raising concerns about supply increases [7] - Kazakhstan's energy minister indicated that national interests would take precedence over OPEC+ interests, further intensifying supply concerns [7] - The market faces multiple uncertainties, including tariffs and geopolitical tensions involving the US, Iran, and Russia-Ukraine negotiations [7] Oil Price Summary - As of April 25, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $65.80 per barrel, down $0.46 (-0.69%) from the previous week; WTI crude futures settled at $63.02 per barrel, up $0.61 (+0.98%) [22] - Russian Urals crude spot price remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, while Russian ESPO crude price decreased by $0.32 (-0.51%) to $62.28 per barrel [22] Offshore Drilling Services - As of April 21, 2025, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling rigs was 381, an increase of 1 from the previous week; the number of floating drilling rigs was 141, also up by 1 [26] US Oil Supply - As of April 18, 2025, US crude oil production was 13.46 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.02 million barrels per day from the previous week [42] - The number of active drilling rigs in the US increased by 2 to 483 as of April 25, 2025 [42] - The number of fracturing fleets in the US rose by 5 to 205 as of April 25, 2025 [42] US Oil Demand - As of April 18, 2025, US refinery crude oil processing volume was 15.89 million barrels per day, an increase of 325,000 barrels per day from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 88.10%, up 1.8 percentage points [53] US Oil Inventory - As of April 18, 2025, total US crude oil inventory was 841 million barrels, an increase of 712,000 barrels (+0.08%) from the previous week [64] - Strategic oil inventory was 397 million barrels, up 468,000 barrels (+0.12%); commercial crude oil inventory was 443 million barrels, up 244,000 barrels (+0.06%) [64] Related Companies - Key companies in the industry include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [1]