交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-10原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2511： 1.基本面：以色列政府周五批准与巴勒斯坦激进组织哈马斯达成的停火协议，为在24小时内暂停加沙 敌对行动、并在72小时内释放被关押在加沙的以色列人质铺平了道路；周四共和党提出的为美国政府 提供资金并结束停摆的议案还是未能在参议院获得通过所需的票数。美国政府停摆已进入第九天，几 乎没有任何进展迹象；当记者问及特朗普目前是否计划对俄罗斯实施更多制裁时，美国总统特朗普表 示"可能会"；偏空 2.基差：10月9日，阿曼原油现货价为66.95元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为65.87元/桶，基差25.17元/ 桶，现货 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-30原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2511： 1.基本面：美国总统特朗普周一获得了以色列总理内塔尼亚胡对美国发起的加沙和平提议的支持，但 哈马斯是否会接受该计划仍是个问题；美国总统特朗普与民主党对手在白宫举行旨在避免政府停摆的 一场会议中，似乎没有取得什么进展；三位知情人士透露，OPEC+很可能在10月5日的会议上批准新一 轮原油产量上调，幅度至少为13.7万桶/日，该组织有意借此进一步夺回市场份额；偏空 2.基差：9月29日，阿曼原油现货价为69.48元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为68.54元/桶，基差24.46元/ 桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库 ...

原油观望过渡 摘 要： 受乌克兰持续袭击俄罗斯石油基础设施以及欧盟和美 国可能将实施额外制裁的前景所提振，引发了对供应受限 的担忧，这是近期原油走强的主因。体上，阶段性地缘政 治扰动市场，供应过剩压力仍存。观望过渡。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：师秀明 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0001784 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 策略建议：观望 风险提示：无 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 第 2 章 价格影响因素分析 2.1 OPEC:OPEC+增产立场不变 OPEC 月报：8 月份欧佩克+原油产量平均为 4240 万桶/日，比 7 月份增加 50.9 万桶/日，此前 欧佩克+提高了原油产量。二手数据显示，欧佩克原油产量 7 月修正为 2747 万桶，8 月为 2794.8 万桶，较上月增加 47.8 万桶，达到 2795 万桶/日。沙特阿拉伯 8 月份原油产量增加 25.8 万桶/ 日，达到 971 万桶/日。阿联酋 8 月原油产量增加 8.7 万桶/日，至 325.5 万桶/日。尼日利亚 8 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-29原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2511： 1.基本面：伊拉克石油部表示，在达成一项临时协议打破僵局后，伊拉克北部库尔德地区通往土耳其 的输油管道周六恢复原油输送，为两年半以来首次；三位熟悉谈判情况的消息人士称，OPEC+可能会 在10月5日的会议上批准再次增加石油产量，每天至少增加13.7万桶，因为油价上涨促使该组织试图进 一步夺回市场份额；美国总统特朗普将于周一与国会民主党和共和党领袖会面，在9月30日最后期限前 讨论政府拨款问题；中性 2.基差：9月26日，阿曼原油现货价为70.88元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为69.92元/桶，基差40.7 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Short - term**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading. Pay attention to the positive impact of inventory reduction in China on SC crude oil [6]. - **Medium - to - long - term**: There is significant downward pressure on oil prices. By the end of this year and the beginning of next year, Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel [8]. 3. Summary by Directory **Overview** - **Supply**: Global crude oil supply shows the characteristic of "incremental release but limited actual increase". OPEC+ plans to gradually lift a 1.65 million - barrel - per - day production cut starting from October, with an initial increase of 137,000 barrels per day, but the actual increase may be only 70,000 barrels per day. Non - OPEC+ supply, such as US shale oil, is expected to decline by 150,000 barrels per day next year due to low oil prices. Geopolitical risks also disrupt supply [6]. - **Demand**: Global crude oil demand presents a "structurally differentiated" situation. China's demand growth engine weakens, while India, Southeast Asia, and Africa become new growth points. Overall, the demand side faces challenges of "slowing total growth and reconstructing category demand" [7]. - **Strategy**: Short - term wait - and - see; long - term, there is a large downward pressure on oil prices. Strategies include unilateral wait - and - see, long - term short - selling on rallies, holding light - position positive spreads (buy SC11, sell SC12), and potential reversals in EFS spreads and SC - Dubai spreads [8]. **Macro** - Monitor the Fed's interest rate cuts as the gold - to - oil ratio has soared again. Overseas PPI has increased, and attention should be paid to inflation transmission. The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, and social financing has rebounded [14][15][20]. **Supply** - **OPEC+ Core Members**: Many OPEC+ members have different supply situations. For example, Iraq's production is limited, while the UAE aims for higher export quotas. Saudi Arabia has significantly reduced its official selling prices for Asia in October. There are also supply disruptions in Russia due to attacks on refineries [10]. - **Non - OPEC+**: The US shale oil production is expected to decline next year. Brazil, Guyana, and other regions have supply increases. There are also various geopolitical and supply - related issues in other countries [11]. **Demand** - **Regional Demand**: China's demand shows a complex situation with a decline in gasoline demand due to high electric vehicle penetration but an increase in petrochemical raw material demand. India's demand rebounds after the monsoon season. European diesel demand remains weak, while North American demand declines due to the popularity of hybrid vehicles [12]. - **Refinery开工率**: US and European refinery operating rates are seasonally declining, while the operating rates of major refineries and independent refineries in China are rising [59]. **Inventory** - **US**: US commercial inventories and Cushing region inventories are stable, but the latter is significantly lower than the historical average. - **Europe**: European diesel inventories are rebounding, and gasoline inventories are decreasing. - **China**: Domestic refined oil profit margins are falling [62][67][69]. **Price and Spreads** - **Basis**: North American basis is oscillating. - **Calendar Spreads**: Calendar spreads have a slight rebound. - **SC vs. Overseas Markets**: SC is stronger than overseas markets, and its calendar spreads are rebounding. - **Net Long Positions**: Net long positions are declining [73][74][77].

Report Summary Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core View The supply increase suppresses the rebound of crude oil, and it is recommended to wait and see again. The trend strength of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral view [1][8]. Section Summaries 1. Global Benchmark Crude Oil Price Dynamics - Brent (ICE) price is $67.49/bbl with a daily change of $1.1. The North Sea oilfield maintenance reaches its peak, and the shooting down of a Russian drone by Poland boosts the geopolitical premium [2]. - WTI (NYMEX) price is $63.67/bbl with a daily change of $1.04. Cushing inventory decreases by 2.8 million barrels weekly, and the strategic reserve repurchase starts [2]. - Dubai (Platts) price is $71.72/bbl with a daily change of $0.84. Middle - East refinery feed demand is strong, and the November spot premium hits a new high [2]. - Murban (ADNOC) price is $70.1/bbl with a daily change of -$1.02. The official selling price is lowered by $1.02 to respond to Asian buyers switching to US West Coast crude oil [2]. - Urals (CIF) price is $57.91/bbl with a daily change of $0.54. Indian refineries make bargain purchases, and the Baltic Sea loading volume increases by 15% month - on - month [2]. 2. Regional Crude Oil Spreads - Brent - WTI spread is $3.9/bbl, affected by the decline in Cushing inventory. The congestion of US Gulf export facilities intensifies, and the European arbitrage window closes [3]. - Dubai - Oman spread is $0.28/bbl, due to the Middle - East OSP cut. Saudi Arabia reduces Asian long - term contract volumes, and the spot market competition heats up [5]. - ESPO - Dubai spread is -$1.41/bbl, caused by the increase in Russian exports. Russian oil companies use a new method to avoid price limits: delivering a mixture of Omani crude oil [5]. - Midland - Cushing spread is $0.95/bbl, due to pipeline capacity constraints. An EPIC pipeline failure causes more than 5 million barrels of accumulation in the Permian Basin [5]. 3. Device Impact - Cosmo Oil's 100,000 b/d device is under maintenance from August 27 to early October, affecting Sakai crude oil. Japanese gasoline inventory drops to a five - year low, and emergency reserves are released [5]. - Sinopec Zhenhai's 200,000 b/d device maintenance is postponed to the end of September, affecting ESPO crude oil. Zhoushan's commercial crude oil inventory breaks the historical peak [5]. - BP Rotterdam's 180,000 b/d device is under maintenance from September 15 to November 10, affecting North Sea Forties. The European diesel crack spread widens by $1.2/bbl [5]. - Reliance's 660,000 b/d device is planned for maintenance in October, affecting Middle - East heavy crude oil. India's early stockpiling narrows the Middle - East fuel oil discount [5]. 4. Key Crude Oil Trade Dynamics - Persian Gulf - Japan route (VLCC): Freight is w64.5 with a weekly change of 0.15. Red Sea route insurance premiums increase by 300%, and shipowners detour around the Cape of Good Hope [6]. - US Gulf - China route (VLCC): Freight is $8.45m, an increase of $1.9m. The Panama Canal's traffic restrictions lead to tight shipping capacity [6]. - Singapore - East China route (LR2): Freight is $2.35m with a change of 0.12. China's bonded oil demand surges, and ship schedules are booked until three weeks later [6]. - West Africa - China route (Suezmax): Freight is w107.5 with a change of 0.08. India's procurement shifts to West Africa, squeezing Far - East shipping capacity [6]. 5. Comparison of Different Oil Types - 92 - octane gasoline (Singapore): Crack spread is $22/bbl, FOB price in Asia is $83.27. Indonesian Pertamina makes an emergency purchase of October cargoes, and Southeast Asian inventory drops to a three - week low [6]. - 0.5% low - sulfur fuel oil: Crack spread is $6.93/bbl, FOB price in Asia is $492.08. China's bonded refueling demand surges, and 23 ships are waiting at Zhoushan anchorage [6]. - 10ppm diesel: Crack spread is $19/bbl, FOB price in Asia is $88.12. African diesel power generation demand is in the peak season, and West African imports reach a record high [6]. - 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil: Crack spread is -$2.25/bbl, FOB price in Asia is $426. The restart of Australia's Viva refinery is delayed, and regional supply glut persists [6]. 6. Key Market News - OPEC Monthly Report: In August, OPEC+ crude oil production averaged 42.4 million barrels per day, an increase of 509,000 barrels per day compared to July as OPEC+ raised production [9]. - IEA Monthly Report: The 2025 world oil demand growth forecast is raised to 740,000 barrels per day (previously forecasted at 680,000 barrels per day) [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, crude oil oscillated at a low level. The prices of NYMEX WTI crude oil, ICE Brent crude oil, and INE crude oil futures all declined. The approaching meeting between US and Russian leaders eased investors' concerns about reduced crude oil supply due to "secondary sanctions" on Russia, pressuring oil prices. However, the market remains pessimistic about the medium - and long - term fundamentals of crude oil [3]. - Due to OPEC's production increase causing a sharp drop in oil prices, US shale oil producers are idling drilling platforms and reducing spending, which may lead to a significant decline in US crude oil production [4]. - After the Alaska Summit, geopolitical uncertainties still exist. Macroeconomically, the upcoming release of the Fed meeting minutes and Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting may pave the way for a September interest rate cut, providing some support to commodities. Oil prices are expected to continue oscillating at a low level in the short term, waiting for the negotiation results [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review - **Price Performance**: NYMEX WTI crude oil futures closed at $62.29 per barrel, down 1.67% for the week; ICE Brent crude oil futures closed at $65.45 per barrel, down 1.31% for the week; INE crude oil futures closed at 484.1 yuan per barrel, down 1.16% for the week [3]. - **Supply - side Information**: OPEC's monthly report showed that OPEC+ crude oil production increased by 335,000 barrels per day to 41.94 million barrels per day in July, but the increase was lower than the production recovery agreement reached by 8 OPEC+ countries. OPEC raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 by 100,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day and lowered its forecast for non - OPEC supply growth by the same amount [3]. - **Fund Flow**: In the week ending August 12, the net long positions of speculative traders in Brent crude oil futures decreased by 34,430 contracts to 206,547 contracts; the net long positions of speculative traders in WTI crude oil decreased by 25,087 contracts to 116,742 contracts [3]. - **Geopolitical Events**: Trump and Putin held a face - to - face meeting in Alaska. Although Trump said the meeting was "extremely productive" and they reached a consensus on most issues, no final agreement to end the conflict was reached. Putin said the meeting atmosphere was "constructive" and some non - public agreements had been reached [3]. - **US Shale Oil Situation**: US shale oil producers are idling drilling platforms and reducing spending due to OPEC's production increase and falling oil prices. The number of hydraulic fracturing units for shale oil and gas wells dropped to a four - year low last week, and producers cut about $1.8 billion from their capital expenditure plans in two quarters. The EIA predicts that US crude oil production will decline next year [4]. - **US - India Relations**: The US may impose secondary tariffs on India, depending on the outcome of the meeting between Trump and Putin. Tensions between the US and India have intensified as India increased its imports of cheap Russian crude oil after the Russia - Ukraine conflict [4]. 2. Related News - Not provided separately in the content 3. Outlook - Geopolitical uncertainties remain after the Alaska Summit. The upcoming Fed meeting minutes and Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting may support commodities. Oil prices are expected to continue oscillating at a low level in the short term, waiting for the negotiation results. The recommended short - term trading range is 480 - 510, and long - term long positions can be held with stop - loss plans [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The prices of various crude oil varieties declined this week. For example, the price of UK Brent Dtd dropped from $72.01 to $69.29, a decrease of 3.79% [8]. - **Inventory Data**: Cushing inventory and EIA inventory data are provided, showing the changes in inventory levels over different time periods [10][11]. 5. Position Data - **CFTC Fund Net Long Positions**: The net long positions of speculative traders in WTI crude oil futures decreased from 141,829 contracts on August 5 to 116,742 contracts on August 12, a decrease of 25,087 contracts [17]. - **ICE Fund Net Long Positions**: The net long positions of speculative traders in ICE Brent crude oil futures decreased from 240,977 contracts on August 5 to 206,547 contracts on August 12, a decrease of 34,430 contracts [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term strategy: Short - term observation, hold long - short spreads. The global crude oil supply pattern is undergoing significant adjustments, and demand shows obvious regional and structural differences. Brent and WTI may challenge $80/barrel in the second half of the year, and SC may challenge 580 yuan/barrel. In the medium - to - long term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices [6]. - Logic: In the third quarter, the market is bullish, with the rhythm possibly adjusted to the second half of the quarter, mainly due to OPEC+ production increase falling short of expectations, a decline in U.S. shale oil production, and a relatively low global inventory center. Overseas macro - market risk appetite has deteriorated, and potential sanctions on Russian oil may lead to a decline in exports. In the medium - to - long term, there is a bearish outlook due to long - term oversupply pressure from production increases by OPEC+ and other countries [6]. - Strategies: Hold long positions in the short term; in the long term, short at high prices and trend short. Pay attention to long - short spreads (buy SC10, sell 11 and 12), and remain on the sidelines for cross - variety trading [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - OPEC+ production increase in July fell short of expectations. Eight OPEC+ member countries plan to fully lift the "voluntary production cuts" in September, releasing 547,000 barrels per day of sour crude oil supply. Saudi Arabia has increased exports to the Asia - Pacific region. Non - OPEC+ producers show a differentiated trend: U.S. shale oil production is expected to decrease by 130,000 barrels per day in 2025, while emerging producers such as Guyana and Brazil are seeing rising production. Russia has successfully transferred its supply through the Asian market, and Venezuela has resumed exports [6][8][9]. - Supply situation by country: Iraq's production is limited; the UAE's production and exports are high, with planned maintenance in October; Saudi Arabia has raised its official selling prices for Asia in September; Nigeria's exports are increasing; Angola's exports are under pressure; Russia's exports to India have decreased, but exports to China have increased; Norway's medium - sour crude oil prices have fallen [8]. 3.2 Demand - Global crude oil demand shows obvious regional and structural differences. China is increasing its strategic reserve construction, with land - based crude oil inventories increasing at a daily rate of 700,000 barrels from March to July, accounting for 75% of the global inventory increase during the same period. The U.S. refineries are operating at high loads, but gasoline demand growth is restricted. The European market is facing an oversupply of jet fuel. India has reduced its imports of Russian oil under U.S. pressure [6][11]. - Demand situation by country: In China, gasoline demand has decreased by 8.1% year - on - year, diesel demand has increased by 1.9% year - on - year, and aviation fuel demand has increased by 11.1% year - on - year. India has reduced its imports of Russian oil and turned to U.S. and Middle Eastern crude oil, resulting in a decline in refinery processing volume in June [11]. 3.3 Macro - Pay attention to the Russia - U.S. negotiations and the development of the Russia - Ukraine situation. Overseas PPI has increased, and attention should be paid to inflation transmission. The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, and social financing has rebounded [13][19][24]. 3.4 Price, Spread and Position - North American basis has rebounded slightly. The monthly spread has fallen to a low level. SC is stronger than the external market, and the monthly spread has weakened. Net long positions have declined [77][78][81].

Market Performance - US stock markets opened higher and closed with gains, with all three major indices rising, and the Nasdaq index reaching a new closing high [1] - As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.47% to 44,175.61 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.78% to 6,389.45 points, and the Nasdaq climbed by 0.98% to 21,450.02 points, setting a new record [2] Apple Inc. Performance - Apple shares surged over 13% this week, with significant daily increases of 5.09% on August 6, 3.18% on August 7, and 4.24% on August 8, marking the largest weekly gain in over five years [3] - The total market capitalization of Apple increased by over $390 billion (approximately 28,000 million RMB) during this period [3] Investment Commitments - Apple CEO Tim Cook announced a commitment to invest an additional $100 billion in US manufacturing over the next four years, raising the company's total planned investment in the US from $500 billion to $600 billion [5] - This investment includes collaborations with ten companies across the US, focusing on components used in Apple products, including semiconductor chips [5] Trade and Tariff Impacts - Analysts noted that concerns over tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have affected market sentiment, particularly regarding Apple's profitability [5] - The US has increased tariffs on products imported from India, which has led to tensions and responses from the Indian government [8] Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices fell over 5% this week, with US crude oil futures closing at $63.35 per barrel, down 5.91% for the week [9] - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, marking a significant shift in their production strategy [10] Bond Market Trends - US Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2-year yield increasing by 3.45 basis points to 3.762% and the 10-year yield rising by 3.49 basis points to 4.287% [12]

Group 1 - OPEC+ has increased oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, signaling a full exit from its largest production cut agreement, contributing to expectations of ample global oil supply in the second half of the year [1] - The increase in production aims to alleviate supply pressure during the demand peak season and compensate for previous production cuts, suggesting a long-term downward shift in oil price levels [1][3] - Despite the increase, analysts believe that the acceleration in production during the demand season will provide some buffer against a sharp decline in oil prices [1] Group 2 - The recent decline in international oil prices is influenced by geopolitical and macroeconomic factors, including renewed U.S. sanctions on Iran and potential sanctions on Russia, which initially raised supply concerns [2] - The market's perception of these sanctions as mere deterrents has led to a correction in oil price premiums, with traders awaiting further developments [2] - Concerns over a potential economic slowdown in the U.S. have been heightened by disappointing non-farm payroll data, which may impact oil demand [2] Group 3 - India's position as the second-largest importer of Russian oil makes it vulnerable to U.S. sanctions, which could lead to supply security concerns and affect global oil supply [3] - While current global oil inventory pressure is manageable, an increase in supply coupled with seasonal demand decline may accelerate inventory accumulation, exerting downward pressure on oil prices [3] - China's crude oil imports increased by 7.1% month-on-month and 7.4% year-on-year in June, indicating a slight uptick in demand from independent refineries [3] Group 4 - Most OPEC+ countries are producing according to quotas, but Kazakhstan is exceeding its production limits, reflecting OPEC+'s strategy to regain market share and strengthen internal unity [4] - High refinery operating rates driven by overseas diesel restocking demand may support oil prices in the short term, but ongoing expectations regarding U.S. sanctions on Russia could lead to price volatility [4] - If sanctions do not materialize as expected, the supply pressure from OPEC+ increases could further lower the central price of international oil [4]