12月4日：上交易日周三（12月3日）：国际黄金冲高回落倒垂收跌，相对于周二走势，有暗示后市将横 盘震荡整理的预期，但方向上，目前仍还是偏向看涨上行不变。 再一方面，本周还有美国9月核心PCE物价指数年率，以及下周在美联储利率决议后再公布的PPI通胀数 据，和美国11月失业率非农数据，以及美国11月CPI通胀数据等等，所以市场等待的不是12月降息前 景，而是明年的降息前景，故此，当下的调整等待也属正常反应。 再者，正常情况下，金价的反弹一般会在降息当周面临遇阻行情，所以，当下在临近下周降息会议落地 之前，表现震荡也属正常。 张尧浠认为，在下周利率会议落地之后，市场将再度回归到明年的降息周期前景之中，那么从本周到下 周的调整则可视为入场的时机和节点。因为，不管是11月非农数据和CPI数据在12月降息会议之前还是 之后公布，区别就是先涨还是后涨，其美国政府的停摆，也已经影响到了11月初的经济，故此，大概率 上，11月非农和CPI将会支撑后续的降息前景。 再加上，美联储也即将换任更加鸽派的主席，都将支撑明年的更加宽松的降息前景。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4206.58美元/盎司，短暂走强遇阻4230美元附近后，回 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that gold prices have increased due to multiple favorable factors, including market expectations of the Federal Reserve maintaining a wait-and-see approach before the upcoming interest rate meeting, uncertainty from the U.S. government fiscal deadlock, and ongoing tensions in the Middle East [1] - The stable demand for gold from global central banks and ETF holdings provides solid support for gold prices, effectively hedging against short-term volatility [1] - Traditional safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen, along with the U.S. dollar, influence the attractiveness of gold [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold has broken through a key resistance level of 4380, suggesting a strong bullish trend, with a new support level established around 4300 [3] - The recommendation is to adopt a bullish stance, focusing on opportunities to enter long positions during price pullbacks, while maintaining patience due to market volatility [3] - A specific trading strategy suggests buying on dips in the range of 4318-4313, with a stop loss at 4300 and a target of 4380-4400 [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the recent fluctuations in gold prices, influenced by mixed market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policies and economic data [1][2][3] - Gold prices have shown a downward trend, with current trading around $3274.55 per ounce, reflecting a decline of approximately 0.4% [1] - The U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter, and the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose by 3.5%, indicating potential economic challenges [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis suggests that gold is in a bearish trend, with significant resistance at the $3270 level and support around $3200 [3][5] - The strategy for trading gold includes short positions on rebounds near $3265-$3270 and potential long positions on dips around $3197-$3200, with specific stop-loss and target levels outlined [6][7] - The market is closely monitoring upcoming economic indicators, including U.S. employment data and central bank decisions, which could further impact gold prices [2][3]

Report Overview - The report is a daily view on the precious metals and non - ferrous metals industry, covering gold, copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, and industrial silicon [2] 1. Precious Metals (Gold) Core View - The Fed's Beige Book's mention of tariff risks suppresses market sentiment, and the rebound of the US dollar index weakens gold's appeal. However, the medium - to - long - term logic remains unchanged, with central bank gold - buying demand and geopolitical uncertainties supporting gold prices [3] Key Points - **Price Influencing Factors**: Tariff risks and the US dollar index affect short - term gold prices, while central bank demand and geopolitics support long - term prices [3] 2. Copper Core View - The Politburo meeting boosts market confidence. The supply issue has been factored into copper prices, and demand from white - goods and power industries is positive [15] Key Points - **Macro**: The Politburo meeting's statements on monetary and fiscal policies give market confidence [15] - **Fundamentals**: Supply concerns are already reflected in prices, and demand from white - goods and power sectors is promising [15] - **Price Data**: - **Futures**:沪铜主力 at 77,580 yuan/ton, up 0.18%;伦铜3M at 9,360 dollars/ton, down 1% [16] - **Spot**: Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper at 77,565 yuan/ton, down 0.74% [20] 3. Zinc Core View - Domestic zinc ingot inventory is decreasing. Cost support weakens, demand is mixed, and external factors limit price decline [35] Key Points - **Inventory**: SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased by 14,200 tons to 85,800 tons week - on - week [35] - **Cost**: Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, weakening cost support [35] - **Demand**: Galvanizing sector's开工 is up, while die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide开工 is down [35] - **Price Data**:沪锌主力 at 22,520 yuan/ton, down 1.01% [36] 4. Aluminum Core View - For aluminum, Trump's statement on tariffs improves market sentiment, and supply is stable with inventory decline. For alumina, supply and demand have different trends, and inventory affects prices [46] Key Points - **Aluminum**: - **Macro**: Trump's statement on tariffs affects market sentiment [46] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is stable, and inventory is decreasing, but demand may decline after the peak season [46] - **Price Data**:沪铝主力 at 19,935 yuan/ton, down 0.47% [46] - **Alumina**: - **Supply**: Bauxite supply is abundant, and alumina production may increase after some plants resume operations [46] - **Demand**: Little change in demand [46] - **Inventory**: Social inventory is decreasing, but high warehouse receipts limit price rebound [46] 5. Nickel Core View - There is no obvious upward momentum. Nickel product royalties are set to be implemented, and different segments of the nickel industry have various trends [66] Key Points - **Supply**: Nickel ore supply is affected by the end of the rainy season, with high - grade ore remaining tight [66] - **Product Trends**: Nickel iron prices are under pressure, and sulfuric acid nickel prices are relatively stable [66] - **Price Data**:沪镍主连 at 124,690 yuan/ton, down 1% [67] 6. Tin Core View - Tin prices return to fundamentals. Supply is stable, and demand is supported by semiconductor expectations [80] Key Points - **Supply**: Although there are plans for tin mine复产, it is difficult to complete in 1 - 2 weeks [80] - **Demand**: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recovers slightly due to Sino - US tariff policy expectations [80] - **Price Data**:沪锡主力 at 260,570 yuan/ton, down 0.86% [80] 7. Lithium Carbonate Core View - Overall supply is high despite some producers' cuts. Demand from energy storage projects is weak, and downstream restocking is cautious [91] Key Points - **Supply**: Some small and medium - sized producers cut production, but large producers increase efficiency [91] - **Demand**: Energy storage demand is weak, and downstream restocking is slow [91] - **Price Data**:碳酸锂期货主力 at 66,960 yuan/ton, down 1,220 yuan [91] 8. Industrial Silicon Core View - Supply in the south is slowly recovering, and prices are at a historical low. High inventory is difficult to deplete due to weak demand [99] Key Points - **Supply**: Southern production is slowly increasing, and a northern plant may undergo maintenance [99] - **Demand**: Downstream demand is weak, and high inventory persists [99] - **Price Data**:华东553 at 9,600 yuan/ton, down 0.52% [100]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing high volatility influenced by both fundamental and technical factors, with short-term pressures from reduced risk aversion and potential support levels being tested [3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold prices have significantly dropped, currently around $3277.84 per ounce, with a decline of nearly $100 during the day [1]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3282 and $3167, with a potential further decline to around $3100 if these levels are breached [3]. - The market is in a consolidation phase after a rapid increase, with short-term downward pressure but long-term support from safe-haven demand and fundamentals [3]. Group 2: Technical Indicators - The highest price for gold today was $3386, while the lowest was $3260, indicating a drop of 126 points [3]. - The daily chart suggests a potential closing below the opening price of $3320, with a focus on whether the lower shadow can extend further down [5]. - Key resistance levels are at $3315 and $3340, with a recommendation to consider short positions around $3310, while support is noted at $3228 to $3245 [5].